Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 NIFF was weaker as the favorite coming back from the 272-day layoff on March 9th. As they wheel right back for this race, they could present a higher value here in addition to that fitness/recency and even a potential pace advantage (Quad I Square) in today's race shape. #3 MY LADY SLEW also takes up a Quad I Square spot in this race, though will return from the three month break taking the step up in class to the N3 level. 

Both #4 MAYSTART (vet scr 3/12) and #6 FIELD DAISEY (vet scr 3/9) make sense in this race though in addition to the recent vet scratches also give up recency coming back from the layoffs for this race. 

The connections for #5 LUCKY SHOT will take a more reasonable approach returning in 2023 to run in this N3 claiming event rather than run in the OC$40k event back on 3/12. Their class edge and ability to stalk-and-pounce (Quad II) Square should allow for a trip stalking the Quad I (Fire Contention) runners. 

#6 TEE BURNS returns to Hawthorne with buried form. They ran a competitive race (B- OptixGRADE) under similar conditions back on 12/10 after a compromised break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) hopped at the start and made an inside move. The four horse field on 1/26 at the Fair Grounds forced them into the lead and a run style for that higher level event that did not flatter their chances for the win on the day. 

#3 GO STORMIN GIRL had some early TROUBLE in the March 5th return race and can project a move forward off that effort and back at this $8.5k level where they raced competitive last season. #2 PALACE MAGIC will be required to step up to the class level, though another that should be sitting on a move forward in this second start of the meet. 

Both runners will require a top effort with #5 CATCHUSIFYOUCAN looking to run to her namesake and capable of doing just that with the edge of the Quad I runners as a Large Square (finishing ability) and positional/second call speed above the ParLine. 

#6 SWISS GUARD is the most experienced runner in this field and while there are the knocks that comes with that and still looking to clear the maiden condition, this will be their first start for the tag on this circuit. They did race over this course back on December 9th at the Special Weight level, coming up short as the favorite though with some excuse stumbling (TROUBLE_S) losing their footing in the mud coming out of the gate. Stablemate #1 BLAME SHIFTER will make a belated debut in this spot. Vanden Berg picked him up in June after working to the best of his abilities at the time in 21 flat on his left lead. There have been gaps in the works since coming back this year and shows up against older.

#5 SHERLOCK WHO is technically a first time starter though treated similarly as they debuted back in 2021 without things going as planned including the layoff that followed. While these runners come with caution, often this time returning from the extended layoff and as a older horse they can often require being race ready off the bench. Tanner has them training consistently coming into this race while also picking up a live rider in Centeno for this race. 

As the projected favorite, #3 WILDWOOD'S WARRIOR will have to work and be "much the best" to win with today's race shape (Sun Contention/38 SpeedRate) as shown on OptixPLOT. 

#4 FUTURE VISION looking to benefit from that pace scenario and trip stalking as a Quad II Square along with #5 KEEN RESPONSE one that has the more "obvious" look "on paper" of the two. Those two hold finishing ability and the tactical edge on Quad IV runners, #6 WHERE'S LUCKY and #8 RIP IT RYAN, closers that should be running on late from off the pace. 

#7 BIG BLUE is interesting (value) here as well. He has a shift from Standard (includes turf form) to Surface/Distance with both giving him the option to compete here. 

#2 AGAVE KID could certainly win here, though does not hold as much of an edge as it may appear and does project to take pace pressure from the expected second choice, #3 D'FEVER setting the pace. 

That opens up the race to alternatives and prices. Many will return from the March 5th common race and lead by #7 RISKY BOY of that group and is logical. Longshot, #8 GEMO RAIN had a look heading into the 3/5 race as he was making his second start off the layoff for Martinez. A rider change will be made here following the TACTIC- two weeks ago and that alone would be a positive along with the back/hidden numbers that fit on par. 

Sophomore #3 RIGHT ON RICHIE perhaps has the most upside of this group and form as he returns to Hawthorne. He comes back to this circuit off races at Gulfstream Park against open though will shift to take on older for the first time here. 

#7 SENOR MIKE has the form against older as he returns to make his four-year-old debut. He showed run in each start last season building off a GREEN debut run and Pompell brings him right back to allowance company here with a steady series of works for this race. 

#8 HIGH BROW expects to get attention in this race for the connections and form that appears on the "safer" side compared to others in this field. That could be enough to carry, though as the expected shorter priced favorite in this race it must be noted the races he was running in last season are softer class level than this allowance race and must step with the class change. The class change also in play for #7 PAPA'S LUCKY SEVEN one that also has to work a trip with his off-the-pace run style - and listed as the second choice on the morning line.

Distance wise is the unknown for #6 BEARS WATCHING though outside of that, fits at this level. His class and figures stack up on par and also holds form coming into this race out of Turfway Park. That includes a STRONG rated race back on 2/10 that has already produced two next out winners and improving next out numbers. 

#4 EDITOR IN CHIEF had route foundation and while he will give up recency with this first start back in 293 days, he has a class edge running at and against much tougher throughout his career than what he faces with this race par. 

Longtime maiden #7 AMARI S. could appear to have a pace advantage here from OptixPLOT though it is worth keeping in the context of this race and with the lightly raced runners that have yet to show potential where AMARI S. has without question shown who she is at this point. 

#1 MADLY will race for the claiming tag today returning from the layoff. She was entered in a Special Weight event last December for Tanner. The placement here could give her the best chance to compete as she comes back this year in this spot with some local works and live rider in Centeno. #8 MAZLAN will also return here with class relief while taking on open company, the class par is softer returning in this race. That could be the change she requires to move up naturally in this spot. 

Second time starters #3 LADA KALINA and #4 TWICK OR TWEAT will return from a similar rated event on opening day. LADA KALINA showed run after a slow start, though no match for the chalk winner, Arneis. The run was interesting for TWICK OR TWEAT as she looked to be eased up soon after the SLOG start, though stayed on enough to continue galloping along behind the others. Gate issues have also become a habit for #5 BUMPER GIRL as she has literally (TROUBLE_S) been living up to her name.

Going to go with 3-MY LADY SLEW. She won her last two starts of 2022 and had three good works since, including a bullet four-panel drill last week. She is one of the quicker members of this field. Could be in front every step of the way. 4-MAYSTART finished third when dropped to this level for last. But she’s been off since November. Two modest drills during the break might not be good enough to get her into top racing shape but she is still worth a look in what appears to be an easy field. 6-FIELD DAISEY finished second in four of her last six races. She’s a late runner that might be able to take advantage if a heated pace develops.

5-LUCKY SHOT and 6-TEE BURNS seem almost evenly matched in this spot though Lucky Shot did beat Tee Burns the last two times they met. Still, they seem much faster than the rest of the field. Think Lucky Shot holds a slight edge but wouldn’t be too surprised if Tee Burns crossed the finish line first. 2-PINBALLER, stablemate of Lucky Shot, owns pretty good speed and could still be in the thick of things late.

Would normally have some hesitation about picking a runner dropping from a solid allowance effort but 5-CATCHUSIFYOUCAN makes sense. That allowance race was her first start after getting claimed. She ran well but maybe not well enough. Drops to whare she belongs. Will be tough. Not sure what caused the terrible effort from 3-GO STORMIN GIRL in her first start of the meet but she deserves another chance. She was in competitive form most of last year. She can bounce back in a big way. 2-PALACE MAGIC finished about nine lengths ahead of Go Stormin Girl in last but that was still only good enough for fifth place. The big surprise there was that she went off at 57-1 despite winning her final two starts of 2022. Drops from starter company. Should still be a decent price. Has to be considered.

6-SWISS GUARD drops to an easier level. He didn’t handle the synthetic track or blinkers on in last when meeting slightly tougher but he was competitive in many of his previous dirt races while meeting better. Blinkers stay on however. Guess we’ll see how that works out. 2-MINING CAMP displayed somewhat better speed in his debut than any of his rivals that have raced and that speed could be enhanced with the addition of blinkers. 1-BLAME SHIFTER, stablemate of top choice, has been working well for his debut. Runners from his barn generally are competitive at first asking. His pilot usually gets them out of the gate in good order. Might try for the lead.

Weird drops in this race. 3-WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR couldn’t make an impact at Oaklawn earlier this year but he narrowly lost his NW2 here in December and he was racing for the $20k tag. He figures to be very tough at this level but have to wonder why he isn’t taking on better rivals. 5-KEEN RESPONSE also drops. He finished a bit behind top pick when they met here in January but this seems to be a more logical spot for him. He’s probably going to be chasing “Warrior” but might be able to come on late. 2-STORMS REFLECTION is likely to go right for the lead. He does tend to tire late but if he catches a speed-favoring track he might be able to take it all the way.

Going to give 8-GEMO RAIN another chance. He ran midpack throughout in last but made up a ton of ground late. The longer distance of this race could work in his favor though he might be best around two turns. 3-D’FEVER needed last. It didn’t help that he was in too deep. But, he wired the field, facing many of these rivals, in his previous start. The drop in class and the race under his belt could get him headed in the right direction. 2-AGAVE KID could try for the lead, though he really hasn’t been all that quick. May stalk instead and try to gain ground late.

Can make a case for pretty much everybody in this race. But think I have to give 1-WILDWOOD DREAMER the edge. He looked super sharp breaking his maiden in his last start of 2022 and he has continued to train well since. He’s quick but might not go right for the lead, considering all the other speed in this race. 3-RIGHT ON RICHIE could be tough. He’s been racing against good open company in Florida. However, he’s had three starts here and hasn’t been all that effective. Turns back in distance but would still expect him to race close to the pace. 5-DEMAND RANSOM finished second the last two times he took on Illinois breds in sprints. His recent drills have been on the slow side but going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

8-HIGH BROW made no impact while facing Florida breds in his last at Gulfstream but he’s had six races on this track and won four of them while finishing second in the other two. Could prove difficult to catch. 7-PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN makes his first start after getting claimed by this barn late last year. He popped some pretty nice drills over the winter. His connections are already of to a hot start. Likes to come from far back but that isn’t necessarily his rider’s strength. We’ll see. The connections of 6-BEARS WATCHING shipped him here to try to score an easy win. He had been meeting some tougher rivals. But, he didn’t race at all last year and has shown little in his two 2023 starts. Hard to gauge.

3-LADY KALINA finished second in her career debut. She grabbed the lead late but couldn’t hang on. Runners from her barn tend to improve with experience. This one could graduate today. 1-MADLY drops into maiden claimers. New York shipper wasn’t racing at one of NY’s top tracks but was still likely facing some salty rivals. Would expect her to improve greatly at this level. 2-EVIE JEAN comes off her best race ever. She dueled for the early lead but still managed to hang to finish third. 6-TIZ SYRIAN KITTY makes her career debut at seven-years-old. Don’t think she has much of a chance but just wanted to point out her age. 

Interesting race to start the card as there are some question marks among some in here. One who I like is 3-MY LADY SLEW as she makes her first start of the season. She raced well to close the fall meet and has a trio of works coming into this spot, most recently posting a snappy bullet drill. Let's see if she can beat Niff to the top. 4-MAYSTART is worth a look but a recent scratch is why I didn't put her on top. She needs some pace to chase and may find it here but we will have to see if there's enough distance for her to get up in time. 6-FIELD DAISEY is another that recently scratched from a spot where she looked to be tough. She ran a lot of good races last year but was also winless from those 13 starts. She may be better to look to underneath in the gimmicks.

A horse for the course, 6-TEE BURNS looks to be in a good spot as he should get a perfect stalking trip. He made one start in New Orleans this fall and pushed the pace along before giving way. If he can rate early, he should be able to run by in the lane. 5-LUCKY SHOT gets back to a spot where he should be tough as he makes his first start of the meet. He's another with success over the track as he could get a very similar trip to Tee Burns in here. 1-SHIMMER ME TIMBERS scratched from an allowance race on Thursday for this spot. He has early speed and a work over the track as well. We have seen some horses recently come from Southern California to Hawthorne to win and this is another that is worth a look.

This level is usually pretty tough as you get horses coming in from different spots to run for this tag. Hoping for some value from 2-PALACE MAGIC as she makes her second start of the meet. She faced a solid field on opening day and held her own in that race, sitting back and running on in the lane. She won't have the lead here but wont be too far back either as she may sneak off at a decent price. 5-CATCHUSIFYOUCAN is one that should rate close as well. She has been working consistently toward the return and is clearly the one to beat in here. My main question comes with her taking the drop below the level of the claim in just the second start since being claimed. 6-ALMAFUERTE steps up today as she makes her first start of the meet. She has just one work toward the return which leaves some concern but her record of 10/12 on the board in races over the track can't be overlooked.

A lightly raced bunch here and not quite sure what the pace scenario will be. I am concerned about only one workout toward the return but I think the class relief, combined with turn back in distance and possible value flatter the chances of 7-MODIFIER. The Perez barn has gotten off to a good start this meet and this one did face tougher fields in both starts to open his career. While sprinting, he is likely to settle back early and look to run on late but there may be enough pace to come back to the field. 1-BLAME SHIFTER debuts from the rail as the break will be the key. He's one of a pair of Vanden Berg runners in this spot who has a nice pattern of drills toward the return. The recent gate work was solid and let's see if he looks to show some early speed. 8-LOCOMOTE comes from the Rivelli barn, which often has their young horses ready to roll early. He has a pair of works leading toward the debut and I don't mind the outside draw. Lasix for the debut and let's see if he wears blinkers as well.

Another spot where there's some potential for some value as the favorites have some question marks. Gave the nod to 7-BIG BLUE as he makes his first start of the meet off a solid pattern of morning works. He ran a decent race over an off track in his final start last fall but this barn places their runners well and he should get a perfect stalking trip. If he can sneak through in this race without getting claimed then he becomes Starter eligible which may be beneficial for the turf season. 5-KEEN RESPONSE ran some solid races early in the fall last year and was claimed out of back to back starts. He was in too tough for his two most recent starts and returns off an easy work. No concern with fitness though as he figures to sit mid-pack early and run on late. 3-WILDWOOD'S WARRIOR will take action but also has the questions surrounding the class drop in here as well. He has raced with mixed results throughout his career and should be fit after spending the winter in Oaklawn. The only concern is that he may not provide much in regards to value today.

This spot has a mix of some who faced off early in the meet at this level along with some new shooters. 3-D'FEVER has potential to be tough as he drops back down after facing much tougher in his last.  He has some early speed and was able to wire similar last December. He could have company just to his inside but may also be able to outkick Agave Kid to the top. 2-AGAVE KID showed speed at Mahoning Valley last out before giving way into the lane. His record at Hawthorne is good and he has won at the distance. The question in here is if he chooses to push things early on or settles back and runs from just off the pace. If the top two do hook up, it sets things up for 7-RISKY BOY. Risky Boy looked to be sitting in a perfect spot on opening day before scratches completely changed the complexion of that race and Chopper was able to steal on the lead. With only a pair of possible speed threats in here, they will need to likely hook up on the lead for Risky Boy to sit behind and close into late.

Not a ton of pace in here as it is very likely the pace goes 1-2 around the track. I think 3-RIGHT ON RICHIE is the fastest to the front despite turning back in distance. He returns from Florida for this race but with picking Baird up in the saddle you would have to think he's headed for the top. 1-WILDWOOD DREAMER figures to chase early and run on in the lane. He faced open company to close out the meet last fall but it wasn't the greatest bunch for that level. He is working consistently toward the return and you have to figure he will be roused to press early from the inside draw. If there is enough pace, 6-COMING UP ACES should be closing well late. He ran a good race in his last start of the fall and returns with a pair of works. The only question is the distance as 5 1/2 furlongs won't give him a ton of time to get up.

Going to single 1-MADLY in my late Pick tickets which could be very wise or very crazy. Of those that have raced here we haven't seen a whole lot but the Tracy barn has gotten off to a good start this meet and has this one spotted well. She has faced much tougher in her two starts in New York but since coming to Hawthorne she has worked well. I expect she shows some speed from the inside and never looks back today. 3-LADY KALINA ran a decent race on debut here on opening day. She made a middle move and led late before being run down nearing the wire. She figures to rate in the second flight early and look to rally once again in the stretch. 2-EVIE JEAN was a horse I selected on opening day as she showed some speed before giving way late. She has the potential to chase once again but the added 16th of a mile may work against her chances in here.