Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 JACKS FIRE BALLS is upgraded from the January 8th race following a rough/TROUBLE_S start making a WIDE MOVE and competitive (B- OptixGRADE) effort in the 4th place result. 

#2 WORDS OF WISDOM has the "hot" barn on their side and intent for this condition noting they were entered back on January 8th, that common race, though scratched unable to run that day. #3 QUICK TO BLAME fits logically though the morning line comes up short with alternatives. 

The pace scenario should be contentious (Sun) and honest (45 SpeedRate) with the complexion of this field and many stretch sprinters including front runners, #7 DREAM STREAK and #9 EMERALD PRINCESS. They should also be joined by #8 CARELESS HEIRESS one that returns from the March 4th race staying on as the BOS/Best of the Speed and has the route foundation coming back for this race. 

That noted pace scenario is to the benefit of #3 XYLOPHONE one that comes back under similar conditions after a pair of solid/B OptixGRADE races. #2 CLOSE TO ME shares a similar RunStyle (Quad IV) though in terms of class will be asked to step up from the claiming events here. 

#4 A GIRL LIKE ME has some buried form and hidden form that could have her competitive on her best day and the timing could be right to get creative as the odds project to stay in that double digit range. 

#6 LET'S DUET is logical as an individual though her off the pace run style can be a liability and must be considered as the favorite. 

#8 JUMP INTO THE FIRE will give up some recency though could be positive intent with Colebrook picking this spot and on this circuit for her seasonal return. #5 SAND AND SEA will be tested for stamina at today's distance though in terms of numbers and class, those factors would have her competitive on her best day. 

This race could play a role as a "prep" for the marathon starter allowance race that closes out the Oaklawn Park meet. That is noted as Marshall Gramm stated in the Hawthorne NHC coverage https://www.youtube.com/live/h4kMX3uy0c4?feature=share&t=2028 he is pointing horses to that race and is represented by two Ten Strike runners, #1 HELLORHIGHWATER and #5 TIGER MOON in this race, and two that fit in today's conditions as well. 

#8 WHAT A COUNTRY is proven at the distance and logical off their form this season. #3 CELERITY also carries some buried form this season and returns to Oaklawn Park where they could rebound back to the December 11th BTL effort as well as the March 3rd B- OptixGRADE. 

This is a competitive race and that makes it tougher with #5 BAYSHORE FOXES at a shorter expected price at the morning line, despite being logical. 

#6 GREYDAWN DAY is one of a group with class relief that should have her move up naturally here on the drop. #11 BACK SEAT BETTY also finds class relief from the March 11th race and still presents upside as a lightly raced type with some buried form that stacks up on par. #9 MARTIQUE MISS could also return here to a top effort as she has been freshened for this race and since the Asmussen claim. 

Morning line favorite, #8 PROPELLANT is not "impossible" though does not hold any edge and in fact must step up in this race as others have run "faster" at this point. 

#2 STORM APPROACHING follows a similar "second off" pattern and returning to the January 6th effort and number should be right back in the contender mix here. The pace scenario could also turn out to be contentious and that could benefit #11 RUN POPPY in this race. Not only will he find class relief dropping out of Special Weight company he will also cut back to a sprint and keying off his debut place finish running on from off the pace. 

#9 CHICAGO'S GRAY is one that could present some upside. He was given the clear excuse on debut losing the rider and even could have some excuse on December 10th, a Special Weight race early on in the meet when Asmussen was "cold" and had to race from the rail under poor WEATHER conditions and pouring rain. He was given no favors with the outside post and running wide last out and overall a case can be made we have not seen the best from them. 

Many of the contenders for this event return from the March 4th stakes race. #1 CONNIE K was part of the pace that day and could find herself as the controlling speed (Quad I) in this field. 

#7 KABOOM BABY ran a big race to finish second making a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE late. She will be tested here in her own right to hold current form off a pair of top efforts. Longer shot runner #5 RUN FEARLESS (and #3 RICHNESS) could cycle back to top efforts from prior form and with RUN FEARLESS on an "every other" pattern. 

#6 SULWE could present the biggest threat to the group and as a new face. Her class prevailed with the win returning from the layoff back on December 17th and has back numbers/class to present as a contender here as well.

While #7 ADELINE JULIA could continue winning ways in this race, at the projected shorter price it must be factored the step up in class against this group as well as the favorable trips this season that will see her tested here. 

#2 GUNNING is proven on class and over this course coming back from the layoff to winning ways on March 9th and based on that race project to hold her form here. 

Subtle class relief for #10 MERCY WARREN exiting the Carousel Stakes should have her more competitive against today's group. #4 LET'S BE CLEAR will have a class test in her own right, though has some back numbers and some stakes intent keying off placement in her races going back in her past performances. 

The feature race does not have the graded stakes listing though has graded stakes quality runners and $250k purse going for these filly and mare sprinters.

The class edge of the field sits with both #2 MATAREYA and #6 WICKED HALO, two runners that have been competitive and graded stakes winners holding that edge over this group. That class edge as well as preparation is required as they return to make a seasonal debut here and at today's shorter 5.5f distance. 

The recency, early speed and shorter sprint distance could upgrade #3 PRETTY BIRDIE a solid sprinter in her own right. #5 TEDDY'S BARINO should pick up a lot of attention shipping in from California, though in terms of class must step up and distance is also noted for her with her run style and coming out of longer distance races and favorable (TACTIC+) trips. 

A full and competitive field closes out the Friday card and those factors make things tougher on the morning line favorite, #11 NINJA WARRIOR, one that lacks and edge in this field and lacks value to play.

Part of the contention in this race comes from the early pace and many looking to be on or near (Sun Contention/ 43 SpeedRate) the lead. #4 WOLFE COUNTY could be part of that early pace, though tough to say as they return from the 244-day layoff and going back to last year just started to find their best form for McPeek. That could suggest intent returning in this spot and off a steady series of works. 

As far as the pace and set up for horses from off the pace: #5 RAM has the ability to work that trip and with hidden form this season and returning from the layoff. They can be given a pass on February 18th eased up after getting caught WIDE returning from the layoff and rebounded with a sneaky good effort on March 17th to finish in a blanket for the minors. #2 SONO GRATO is not the most consistent though has form and a closing kick that could see them in the right place, time and price in this event.