Handicapper Tips & Picks

As far as the horses with experience, they have come up short at the level and visually without excuse including #3 INTO LOVE with a pattern of NO_FINISH. That opens up the race to the first time starters: Lund shows up with #2 GODDESS OF WAR with a local work to suggest intent and a solid 46 half mile move back at TuP to suggest some ability. #4 PENZIG has been on the grounds to suggest intent for this meet, despite some delay to this first start. #9 FIRST LOVE was scheduled to debut back on 3/26 at FG though unable to draw into that race and shows up here for DeVaux.

As far as the early pace both #3 GRAMERCY PARK and #5 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER project to contest the pace and value appears to sit on the latter where she can rebound in this third start of the form cycle and off the recent 8th place finish in the 3/10 common race.

#7 PATTERN BET will also be out to rebound where she had a trip (TRAFFIC, TROUBLE) going back to February 20th and has shown run this season despite the running lines and finishing positions. 

#1 MOCHA KISS is one of the older, more experienced runners in this field that could be sitting on her peak effort today. Some further intent with the progressive form as Bailey jumps back aboard. 

#8 HYPERSPORT has come up just short at this N1 allowance this season, though her form and consistent speed figures present an edge in today's group and off that figures the one to beat and shorter price expected in that role. 

Robertson has a pair in this race with #6 THUNDERS ROCKNROLL making her second start of the meet and off a SLOG and WIDE trip last month. Her stablemate #5 RIBBONSINHERHAIR will return from the 176-day layoff and while she gives up recency and must improve overall, the time off could see progress as she has had the time to mature from those juvenile races last season. 

#1 JE SUIS RAPIDE will look to live up to her name as she shown up on this circuit and higher level allowance. She turned in a solid effort last out and going back to her early races recorded some competitive speed figures on the conventional dirt.

#5 SPEAKINOFTHEDEVIL makes a belated return today and out to validate himself following his first two starts last fall and coming up short as the favorite in both events. That can come with concerns, though as far as trip there were some excuses breaking SLOG and taking KICKBACK on debut and racing against (X_FLOW) the layoff following TROUBLE_S in November, a race that was followed up by the layoff.

#6 FEDERAL JUDGE appears a well-intended first time starter for the connections in this race and on this premier race day. #7 MIRACLE WORKER seemed to have some intent behind him on debut back on 2/18 racing as the favorite that day. That race did produce one next out winner, though that runner, Ryvit, broke his maiden in one of the sales priced restricted Special Weight races with a lower race par.  

McPeek likely had this race in mind for #1 SMILE HAPPY returning in the allowance on 3/16 to gain some fitness off the layoff. He will be required to hold his form here off that solid return, though has been able to pair up strong races in the past. 

As far as the race shape, #7 HOPPER projects to find a softer pace this afternoon than what he faced in the SA Handicap (G1) last month and that change should present him an opportunity here. #2 NECKER ISLAND could sneak under the radar and at a price in this race. This will be his third start off the layoff and has shown run this season including TROUBLE and poor rider TACTIC- in the Essex (G3) just two weeks ago. That trip is noted along with the rider change as Murrill comes into ride and has been aboard with success in the past to suggest intent here - this is his only mount on the card. 

#6 NGALA is wheeling back from a solid BTL effort on debut just two weeks ago. That effort and the timing could be a hurdle expected to hold her form here though not enough to discount completely. 

#5 NEXT THURSDAY has shown progress in each start and competitive races in both place finishes.  #7 ARDEN AR is a bit of a "wild card" with the age and another long layoff for this race. That can also be a positive as she does not appear the type where a "prep" can be relied upon. As far as form, her debut back in 2021 was similar all around to the recent debut effort from NGALA with the BTL run for place and speed figure. 

First time starters #9 MISS DOUBLE and #11 ALOHA BABY are also worth a mention for their connections, barns capable with debut runners and this type of event could see a new face pop up. 

#3 CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK is given a mention and a chance with the upset in this race. He has back numbers, class and form over this course and condition that makes him a contender. His form started to tail off last year though seems to be back to his old self coming off a dominant win (B+ OptixGRADE) last month. His stablemate #1 MOWINS has not quite shown the speed, class and consistency though has shown run at times and races on his best day that stack up with many in this field. 

Moquett will also return with a pair in this race and while #4 OSBOURNE has the benefit of recency and consistency, #7 RUGGS has buried form that fits with today's race and could be sitting on a pear effort in this second start back from the layoff. 

A lot of attention in her should fall on #6 STRAIGHT NO CHASER shipping in from California and out of the graded stakes races. Those changes alone could see him competitive here, though he will have to earn it in today's field and projected Contention/SpeedRate. 

#6 CARMEL ROAD returns to Baffert and from the Gotham (G3) stakes last month. He was part of the early pace (DUEL) and given an upgrade as the race was slowing late with the top three running on from off the pace. The same "flow upgrade" from that event is in play for #2 EYEING CLOVER one that raced up close to the pace and stayed on well for third. EYEING CLOVER was favored in the Gotham (G3) and imo a weaker favorite that day tested for class and stamina. That is noted as they could be favored once again and will again be doing something new making their two turn debut. 

Stamina has been the concern for #5 FROSTED DEPARTURE and still undetermined for #1 POWERFUL both horses exiting the Rebel (G2) stakes in their most recent start. #3 GUN PILOT is also returning from the Rebel (G2) with a less than ideal trip that began with issues at the GATE and could present a move forward here with the foundation over the track this season and softer race par in this listed stakes race. 

#4 GAME KEEPER earned a follow off his works last summer at Saratoga and from his two starts this season. He carries upside returning from the March 11th TROUBLE trip while showing run under a less than ideal ride/TACTIC- overall. 

McPeek will return with a pair in this race and #5 SEEKING UNITY likely to be favorite in this race. He has recorded some of the higher figures and consistency overall though visually still must show a little more coming up short  (B- OptixGRADE) of a "winning" type race. Stablemate #10 QUALITY CHIC has shown progress race to race to suggest another move forward here though also must show better gate habits with the SLOG in both starts.

#1 NIGHT EFFECT is the lone first time starter in this field and has the challenges from the rail and first start around two turns, though shows a steady series of works that could suggest some run and intent here on debut.

#6 WET PAINT comes into this race with the improving form this season and pairing wins in the Martha Washington and Honeybee (G3) stakes this season and projects to be favored heavily once again. While capable she has benefit from favorable trips making her run from off the pace and has that trip expected here and also could have to show a similar run on a fast track, something new for her and to consider with the shorter price expected. 

A shorter price is also expected on #1 SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY off the recent figures and finishing positions. As far as those races she benefit from a PERFECT trip against a softer group breaking her maiden on debut and will be class tested coming back from the allowance (slight decline OptixFIG) and B- OptixGRADE where value becomes something to weigh.

#8 ROYAL SPA looks pointed to this race and with a similar trainer pattern from last year going sprint to route and into graded stakes company. She carries overall upside as a lightly raced runner with the graded stakes experience and progressive speed figures. 

#2 GRAND LOVE also could present upside as she returns to make her second start of the season. She has the route foundation and class tested from her juvenile campaign setting a contested (X_FLOW) pace in both the Pocahontas (G3) and BC Juvenile Fillies (G1) prior to the layoff and return last month in the Honeybee (G3) taking a different tactical approach.

#5 TAKE CHARGE BRIANA has some progressive form in her own right and true to Lukas wheels right back in 13-days for this race. She will require a trip and top effort here and at the least hold her form with the quick turnaround in play. 

#4 DR. PERRY will return from the layoff and back to allowance company where he could return to form in this group. Number wise he requires improvement and a top effort though as a lightly raced type making his four-year-old debut, that upside is present. 

#1 GO WEST will be tested back at this allowance level and with the projected contentious pace scenario. With that said, he has been more competitive under similar higher level allowance events and compared to his competition. #12 FAVORITE OUTLAW is a similar fit and trip also comes into play with the far outside draw in this full field. 

#10 IGNITIS has not shown much progression since his juvenile campaign though has been able to run consistently and with a solid late kick, that combination could be on his side to work out in this race. 

The sophomores line up for this feature race on the Derby trail with 100 points awarded to the winner and the $1.25 million purse in play. #8 REINCARNATE projects to be favored in this event and seems logical in that role. He was able to secure the front running "upset" 16-1 win in the Sham (G3) and showed a different dimension overcoming a SLOG to run on late through adversity in the Rebel (G2) for the show award. The SLOG was a change for him from his previous races and with a clean break projects to be forwardly placed. He will be tested in the role of the favorite to validate and step up off his current form in pursuit of the win here. 

#10 RED ROUTE ONE is tough to knock off his races this season with the main hurdle his deep closing run style that requires a trip and often being the "best" horse in the race on the day. Some intent could be in play as Asmussen will add blinkers and call back Gaffalione to ride. 

As far as pace, Asmussen should have that covered with #3 HARLOCAP, one of the pacesetters in the Risen Star (G2) and a "flow upgrade" with race dynamic and coming back in this spot. While that does suggest a move forward, a move forward he will need as numbers require a step up to compete with the main players in this race. 

#6 ANGEL OF EMPIRE was able to benefit from the "flow" in the Risen Star (G2) as well as excellent (TACTIC+) handling from Saez (riding at Gulfstream Park and with a mount on every race on the 14 race card) to win. To his credit, he has shown improvement with each race though has at the same time shown a habit of breaking slow/SLOG. 

#7 ROCKET CAN despite winning the Holy Bull (g3) and finishing an honest second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2) could get overlooked in this race. Rocket Can has held his form this season and progress as he makes his third start off the layoff here for Mott. Visually, he appears to have come out of those recent stakes races well watching his works following the FOY and preparing for this event. 

#1 BOURBON BASH is a longshot to win this race though at long odds could find himself into the mix. Class and stamina are still a test though has foundation on his side, some progress number wise with each race this year. Even his effort in the Rebel (G2) where he showed run in spots including a middle MOVE in TRAFFIC into a faster middle portion of the race shape. 

Many in this N1 allowance have come up short at the level and that creates appeal for a "newer" face and #5 MAMZOOJ could be that horse. He has run some of his stronger races here at Oaklawn Park. His maiden winning run back on January 7th was a strong effort (B+ OptixGRADE) setting a contentious (Fast/BOS) pace showing a MOVE to separate from his rivals and class/GRIT to maintain an advantage to the wire. 

#7 COSTA TERRA is another slightly "newer" face as he make his second start off the layoff and returns to allowance company (B- OptixGRADE on 3/3) finishing in a blanket for the minors behind the open length pacesetting winner. Overall he must show improvement and a faster race to compete here with softer numbers though if he has that move forward this would be the time. 

#4 MR. THUNDERSTRUCK has come up short at this allowance condition, though to his credit has been able to maintain a competitive level of consistency, numbers and his run style fits today's race dynamic.