Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race could go through #6 TIMEHASCOME and one expects to be bet as that type of horse making their local debut, the circuit change and the live connections with Vanden Berg/Emigh. Their presence in this race makes it tougher to try and get creative with the runners that have had plenty of experience with #2 KING ZION (likely to be more assertively handled today) and #5 UNCLE DICK as they have proven who they are at this point. #4 ELECTRIC CHANGE coming off the place finish and improved number on March 16^th figures to be the “alternative” in this race and a shift in odds from the 16-1 last month. 

#1 DERRICKS MEDALLION is still the unproven runner in this field. This will be their first start at a route distance and just second start on this circuit where a move forward if there is to be one, this would be the time and longer odds to make that case. Heading into the March 9^th race it was noted that the Gulfstream February 8^th race was a productive event with improving runners and two next out winners and another that has won since.

Looking at the pace scenario, morning line favorite #5 WHERETHEMONEYWENT makes her run from off the pace and while there is some Contention (Sun) the SpeedRate (OptixPLOT) is on the lower end that could have her compromised in terms of trip. That creates some value and opportunities for others. The Plot position is favorable for #2 SNOOTY however the shape as a Large Circle does create some pause. In this case, it should be noted “trips” from last year impacting that shape including but not limited to the EX – EXCUSE for SNOOTY lunging (TROUBLES+) out of the gate on December 17^th and taken out of her running style on the day. She has been freshened since that race and for this event by Watkins, a barn that has started out live this meet. 

Trainer Brian Cook has also started out of the meet with solid numbers for this outfit and will send out a pair in this race. #1 FIRST SQUADRON could receive attention following up the figures and win on March 23^rd, though that effort appeared taxing/HARD and the quick turnaround in this case is not ideal. Her stablemate #4 KITTEN ROCKS moves up in today’s race shape from a Plot perspective. That could extend further to her form cycle in her second start of the meet and coming off a subtle trip two weeks ago with the WEATHER conditions and hopping at the start (SLOG) after becoming restless in the GATE.

Going back to the Plot, there is not much of a difference between #6 JOLIE RULER and #7 PRANCIPANTS to justify the shift in odds creating value on the latter. 

This is a tricky event and one that has potential for a price. That analysis started with morning line favorite #3 GATE CREW one that will show up here capable and holding a class edge on the drop that makes them logical in this race from that aspect. The value overall creates some concerns in that role while again, capable. 

The race shape is part of the puzzle and a pace scenario that could appear more heated (29 SpeedRate) to offset the Snowflake Contention given over half the field above the Par Line and to the left of the Y-Axis. That creates a scenario to upgrade the Quad IV Runners, #2 PINBALLER and #7 EMPTY HOLSTER as well as #5 FLASHY RICHIE, a longer shot horse in this race and one that might not be as “longshot” given this dynamic to show up in the mix at a price. 

The pace scenario for Race 4 is a lot like Race 3, a heated pace with a higher Contention (Sun) rating and with all the horses in this field sharing the E/EP RunStyle. #5 ALPINE GHOST is one of the EP runners, though one that has been able to take up the P role and positioned in Quad II/IV today is likely to land in that role. That could further be aided by Emigh taking over and guided ALPINE GHOST with that trip to win here back on December 31^st. 

Starting with the established #7 LOTTA ROSES her races to date make her the one to beat transferring that form to this circuit and with the edge on recency and proven around two turns. 

#5 UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY has the benefit of recency and even class relief as she shows up here from the races this season at the Fair Grounds. With the change in circuit will come with the change in distance as she makes her route debut and will be tested to show stamina and has that unknown here. #3 PRADA’S MIRACLE carries some upside from her races last year against Special Weight company and should move up returning for Block in for the maiden claiming tag. That class drop should also benefit #6 LUNARCHY keying off the visuals (DROP) noted from her debut on March 16^th. The class change is more of a lateral move for #8 HOLD HER HOSTAGE exiting the statebred event on March 12^th – a race that was run under poor WEATHER conditions in the rain/snow and the race outcome by the pacesetters finishing 1-2. 

Another tough race with many lightly raced sophomore fillies showing up from different circuits, layoffs and runners that have shown a similar running style. The most established runner, #6 FLAMMAND could take advantage with the advantages on current form, class relief and one that has at times shown the ability to pass horses. #1 SPECIALIZIN was claimed out of her debut last June and has been off since. She shows a series of works returning from the layoff though also some gaps in that sequence. Her stablemate #2 MOVE IT BABY will also return from the layoff here with just the lone published work and comes into this race with the surface switch in a dirt debut. 

#3 STORMY EMPIRE figures as the “most logical” runner in this field with proven allowance form and figures that stack up on par. With that said, she has come up short at this level and done so without excuse and even when having things, her own way. #9 JOURNEYIST carries the most upside and while she will be required to step up here and race in against open company, the time for her is right in this second start off the layoff, a subtle trip back on March 12^th and picking up Lasix to suggest further intent. Boyce can also show up live with multiple runners on a card which is noted as the barn sends out DOMINQUE in Race 8. 

The March 12^th Special Weight race is a common event many in here will return from and could see #2 CANTOO overlooked given the running line and finishing position – a sneaky BTL effort. She had issues out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) before making a strong CLOSE down the center of the track and finishing in a blanket for the minors alongside many in this field earning the similar B- OptixGRADE. Her form has been consistent here at Hawthorne keying off the statebred stakes race (B- OptixGRADE) and holding a subtle class edge with the Special Weight events and efforts in open company along with the most recent effort. 

#6 DOMINQUE could also present some upside in this second start off the layoff and in statebred company. Intent could be in play expecting more from her on debut when she was bet down to the race favorite from the 8-1 morning line despite showing up in open company and with the far outside post in a full field of 12 runners. Intent could again be in play for this second start of the season returning with the blinkers on, a rider change and showing a solid 5f move since the return race last month. 

First time starter #1 HIP HOP EMMY is also deserving of a mention going out for capable connections and appears to have some intent for this spot and for this meet. She had some setbacks last year making it to the races and lands here early in the meet with the steady series of works.  

Have to figure 6-TIMEHASCOME will be tough to beat. He was narrowly defeated in his last two starts at Turfway after leading from the start. Stretches back out. Adds blinkers for the first time which could enhance his late focus. Might not let anyone pass. 4-ELECTRIC CHARGE didn’t show a thing in his two races last year but he added blinkers for his last start and wound up with easily the best race of his career, finishing second. He’ll probably be stalking the pace again today. Can run by if top choice gives it up late again. 2-KING ZION didn’t run a step in his first start of the year but that race was obviously a prep. Stretches out for this. Went off as the lukewarm favorite in that last race but will likely to a solid price in this one. Can make amends.

Certainly no standouts in this race but 1-first squadron just wired a field after narrowly losing her previous race.  Without much other speed to pressure her on the front end, she might be able to coast on the lead. 6-JOLIE RULER has been finishing up the track since getting claimed by this barn but she has been meeting considerably better rivals. Ships back from Ohio. Can awaken with the class drop. 5-WHERETHEMONEYWENT should show some late run. She hasn’t been in the best of form at Turfway but she did win the last time she ran at a similar level on a dirt track. 3-TAP N TWINE could be overlooked in the wagering once again but she won two of her last three and the runner that finished second to her in last came back to win her next race.

Not a strong selection but going to give the nod to 3-GATE CREW. It’s been over a year since his last victory but he’s dropping to half his former claiming level. He’s been splitting better fields. This could be his wake-up spot. 2-PINBALLER could surprise. He’s stretching out today after two decent spring efforts. There are some other front runners in here but he has sprint speed while those likely to challenge for the lead own route speed. He should be able to get the drop on them. Could last. 6-BIG BLUE narrowly got up to score his second victory in last while meeting what should have been easier rivals but his speed figures suggest that he should be competitive with this group.

3-FOLLOW THE SIGNS moves up in class after winning last and getting claimed but he was narrowly defeated in his previous race at this level. He might not go for the lead but he does own good enough speed to stay close and speed has been winning the vast majority of the races. 4-JACK VAN BERG needed last. He finished almost eight lengths behind top pick in that start but think he might normally be a little quicker from the gate than that rival and could prove tough to catch if he breaks on top. 5-ALPINE GHOST drops. He had some trouble early in last but recovered nicely. However, he was in too deep. He has a much better chance with the drop in class. Might take them late.

6-LUNARCHY’S 16-length loss in her lone start wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper. The winner of that race drew off by 16 lengths and this filly still beat half the field. Drops in class. Stretches to a distance better suited. Beaten favorite can make amends at a square price. 3-PRADA’S MIRACLE drops to a better level. She wasn’t competitive in her four races in 2022 but love the way she’s been training for her 2023 debut. 5-UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY stretches out for the first time. This filly finished third at this level, sprinting, in her last two at Fair Grounds. Would expect her to flash better early speed at this distance.

Interesting speed-filled race. Going to take a little shot with 5-AWESOME SUNDAY and not only because today is an awesome Sunday. I think she could be the quickest from the gate and until proven wrong, speed remains king, or queen in this case. She easily won her debut here last fall. Not sure what happened in last that made her race so poorly but maybe she just didn’t like the synthetic surface. She had three bullet drills since that last race suggesting she’s back on track. 3-LUCKSME is unbeaten after two starts. She wired the field in a maiden claimer in her debut at Churchill, a race from which she got claimed, and then came from off the pace to score at in a starter at Oaklawn in last. She figures to be very tough. 1-SPECIALIZIN and 2-MOVE IT BABY both won their debuts versus maiden claimers. Specializin was claimed from that race back in June and makes her first start since. Move It Baby wired the field at Colonial in her debut but showed little versus allowance company at Kentucky Downs in her last in September. Both have been working well and both could easily make an impact.

Most of the runners, especially those that seem to hold the best chance of winning this allowance race, were running in low-level claimers last year. There are so many speedy members of this field that I looked for a runner capable of staying close to the pace but still finishing well. Wound up with 3-STORMY EMPIRE. She doesn’t win often but she’s generally in the hunt. She ran well off the layoff in last but probably needed the start. Could be tougher today. As far as sustained speed goes, 8-SHEZ RECKLESS might outlast them all. She was barely beaten in her two dirt races since getting claimed by this barn. Takes on supposedly tougher under this condition but needs to be taken seriously. 7-FIRST KITTEN might be the quickest of these but she does have that tendency to run out of gas late. 6-NORTHERN ALLIANCE can finish fast but she’s had 54 races with 14 victories and none of those wins came on dirt.

8-WILDWOOD TRIPLE figures prominently. She came on late to finish third in her debut to finish only a nose behind Be Me Bestie and around a length ahead of Tu Royal. The extra furlong distance of this race could enhance her chances. 4-TU ROYAL and 3-BE MY BESTIE could race head to head from the start. Think Tu Royal might be a bit quicker but Be My Bestie displayed better sustained speed in last despite racing for the first time in 11 months. 

Two turn maidens open the day with a couple in here with some early speed. Looking to 4-ELECTRIC CHARGE to rate just off the pace and look to run on in the lane. He looked like a different horse his first start of the meet as he added blinkers in that spot and continued to improve. He should sit just a couple of lengths back early and come running in the stretch. 6-TIMEHASCOME is one of the two in here with speed as he also puts the blinkers on for today's race. He races for a hot barn and is likely to take a ton of action. 2-KING ZION is the other with early speed. He is long overdue for his first career victory but does figure to push things along upfront. He is at his best around two turns and may be able to hang around for a share underneath late.

There is really no early pace in this race as 2-SNOOTY could be in a position to sneak away early and never look back. This barn has had a solid start to the meet and speed has been king thus far in sprint races. Let's see if she can shake loose early and never look back. 1-FIRST SQUADRON did show speed last out but that was also in a race that didn't have much along the lines of early pace. She wheels back quickly today as she makes her third start of the meet. But she has been sharp her first two times out. 5-WHERETHEMONEYWENT comes in from Indiana for today's race after making recent starts at Turfway. She is going to need some pace to chase as she tends to sit back early and make one run in the lane. Everything the Klopp barn has sent over has run well thus far and this one figures to contend late also.

Had a really tough time with this race as there are a few different ways to go. Thinking 4-JACK VAN BERG will be the fastest to the front as he has a lot of back class and makes his second start of the meet. He's good at the distance and over the track. Let's see if he can shake loose early and never look back. 3-FOLLOW THE SIGNS had a good stalking trip and battled to the wire in his last start to win. He was claimed out of that race and steps up. 13/19 ITM at Hawthorne though is very flattering. 2-MEDAL OF FACT has three victories over the track and has the potential to push things along early on. He faced tougher in his last and with the class drop he should be able to contend at a bit of a price.

Trying to make the determination on if we can beat Lotta Roses or not in this race. With that one having 12 tries and still not finding the winner's circle, have to look to another as 5-UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY comes in from New Orleans for this race. She has been sprinting in her starts but is gradually improving with each race. Let's see how she handles to stretch to two turns. 7-LOTTA ROSES is a standout speed figure wise and has been racing around two turns. She also has some speed but just hasn't been able to grab that first career score. Let's see if she tries to steal this race today. 4-PRETTY IN PRADO just missed in her only start around two turns last fall as she is one of the others to show some speed in here. Her sprint effort wasn't bad a few weeks ago but this may be the best spot for her.

Despite the shorter field this is a talented bunch as well. 1-SPECIALIZIN is making the return off the layoff as she was claimed last June into the Rivelli barn. She wintered in Florida and has been working consistently toward her return. With the addition of Lasix and the inside draw, she should get a good trip in here. 3-LUCKSME looks for her third straight victory to open her career as she comes off a nice win at Oaklawn last out. She has tactical speed and may actually be at her best coming from just off the pace. Let's see how things unfold for her in this spot. 6-FLAMAND has a couple of wins as well and also has some early speed. She tried a couple of tough stakes events last year before returning with a near miss at Fair Grounds in January. Expect to see some speed from her in this spot.

Let's see if the addition of Lasix is what turns things around for 9-JOURNEYIST in this race. She ran well off a long layoff in winning last October but her following starts were a bit flat. She worked very well since her last start and may get a perfect stalking trip in here. 7-FIRST KITTEN ran a nice race despite a troubled trip in her last.  She broke well in that spot but steadied into the turn. She did respond well late and that came on a day where speed was king. Expect her to be much closer to the pace in here. 3-STORMY EMPIRE likes this track and always seems to run a solid race. She will benefit from the added 1/8 of a mile as well as the potential for a contentious pace upfront. She has had issues at times running by the final horses in the lane which is the only concern to not have her on top.

It wasn't a bad race last out, but the draw may have done in 4-TU ROYAL as she pushed the pace along from the outside before giving way in the lane. With a better draw today, along with the lack of early pace, expect to see her try to clear and never look back.3-BE MY BESTIE ran a nice race off the layoff in her last as she overcame some trouble to run on late. She won't be too far off the pace in here as she figures to take her share of action at the windows. 6-DOMINIQUE chased in her last but lacked some finishing kick in that spot. That was her first start of the meet and it is worth giving her another look, especially if she is able to catch a fast track this time out.