Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the assessment with morning line favorite, #4 SHORT STRAW going out for a live Vanden Berg barn and a barn that has had some recent success with first time starters. Most of those runners as juveniles and while capable overall the shorter price as projected could create value elsewhere. The other first time starter #7 HURRYUPANDBYE will look to be the second winner this meet for Witthauer (Raceday Attire, paying $40.20 on Sunday) off a steady work tab and could suggest positive intent with the current trend.

As far as the runners with experience; #2 STRONGENOUGHSTORM must improve, though today appears the time should that occur in the second start off the layoff and second start at this lower maiden claiming level. #6 BUMPER GIRL has recorded some of the higher figures in this field, numbers that sit right in line with #1 EVIE JEAN and the less exposed of that pair. #3 SCRAPE is another that could just find the changes and this circuit what she needs to compete, though overall lacks an edge, has the repetitive layoff lines to justify a short price.

#5 YOU’RE A DANDY is also a tough read. She is one of the "experienced" set, however most of her races to date were recorded as a juvenile and at a higher level in Kentucky with changes in surface/distance to "muddy" the form. That is noted as she has just the lone sprint on the fast dirt being her debut and can make a case in this race looking for that “new face” in this field. 

Looking at OptixFIG this field is evenly matched, and pace could present the prime handicapping factor keying to the Plot (race shape) with the Sun Contention and honest 34 SpeedRate. Quad I/Left of Y-Axis shows Contention and with half of the field above the Surface/Distance Par Line. That scenario could present #6 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR compromised with trip and in addition to form noting a vet scratch at the $6250k level here from back on March 19^th. Becker also sends out #3 AWESOME WILLY coming off a front running maiden win last month, though going back to last season, showed the ability to rate and could take up that effective Run Style here.

Trainer Manny Perez will also be represented by a pair with front runner #2 STORM’S REFLECTION (Quad I) and #5 DREAM ISLAND returning to make a seasonal debut with form and a favorable stalking (Quad IV) RunStyle for today’s dynamic. #1 STRIKE PRICE could look for a similar stalking trip and could even present upside coming off an EX – EXCUSE back on March 17^th at Turfway Park as they look to transfer their form to the dirt.

#4 KEEP ATTACKING is a little softer for the level as a prime contender, though has form that fits with this group as one that could find themselves in the right spot (trip) for a minor share. 

Trainer Brian Cook has started out the meet strong and returns in this spot with #3 GO STORMIN GIRL. She will make her second start of the season coming back from a TROUBLE trip on March 5^th and was also entered at this level on March 19^th (Vet scratch) suggesting overall intent. #6 PALACE MAGIC returns from that March 19^th race showing up with a BTL effort finishing together at the wire with the pacesetting (FLOW) winner, April’s Gem in a race shape that did not have any change in running order from start to finish. 

#4 RANK AND FILE also found legit TROUBLE+ last week (3/30) though will be class tested in this spot though carries overall upside off that trip and from what is shown on her recent run lines, speed figures and finishing positions. #5 BIRDIE BE GONE also belongs in the conversation for this race as she returns from the layoff and fits on her best day with steady works and running here protected from the claiming tag. Trip wise she could also find the right race shape for her RunStyle as a Quad I Square and look for first run on her main rivals and stronger finishing ability than “Circles” #1 MEDWAY QUEEN and #2 SAMARITA. 

Berndt could hold a back-to-back pace advantage (Standard OptixPLOT/Quad I) threat with #8 OPTION returning from the layoff and showing up here as the potential controlling speed. As far as the morning line favorite, #4 BRODY’S FLY tough to know the intent (if any) first off the claim and against winners on February 24^th as they stepped up in class, claiming tag and were not asked (NO_PUSH) for run on the day and could easily see improvement here. 

#1 KEEN RESPONSE was favored under similar conditions here on March 19^th however they became very fractious in the GATE, lost their footing to fall to the ground and ultimately scratched. Emigh was aboard that day and naturally shifts to BRODY’S FLY for this race. #5 RIP IT RYAN also ran in the March 19^th event with his share of GATE issues on that day as well and showed run making a WIDE MOVE for show while the pacesetters finished 1-2 on a day that favored horses forwardly placed due to colder weather temperatures and winds with #6 WHERE’S LUCKY right alongside for the minors. 

In addition to WHERE’S LUCKY, Perez will return with #2 DARE GOES DA DEVIL one that has some buried form that makes him competitive with a top effort and could see that in this second start back off the layoff (and even with an off-track) for this race. Intent with the rider change could also be in play keying back to December 4th from the WIDE trip behind an open length pacesetting winner. 

#1 CLIMB TO GLORY could get overlooked in this race off the running lines and finishing positions from her two starts out at Turfway Park. She debuted in a tougher spot going a route on debut, a common race with #8 OLIVE’S CANDY. Things only became tougher on March 2^nd for CLIMB TO GLORY catching a strong field for the level on March 2^nd. CLIMB TO GLORY has natural speed that does not show up “on paper” and likely to be closer to the pace today with the changes landing on this circuit and under Mojica.

Fellow IA-bred, #6 FIT AND FAMOUS will debut here for Tracy Tanner, a barn that has sent out live runners all season and many with Centeno aboard. That trend, series of works/bullets, could have another live runner and at the same time a shorter number than the morning line suggests. Robertson also with a solid record with debuting runners sends out IL-bred, #7 SLEEPY CAT, a filly that was training here last year though has spent the year getting race ready out at the Fair Grounds. Some of the others in this field are also IL-Bred runners class tested here again against open. #9 MAGIC BEAUTY could find default attention and coming off the place finish, a FLOW aided run for place on March 16^th earning the same B- OptixGRADE as #4 BLAZE BEAUTY. 

A full field of N1X allowance runners contesting the sprint, 6f distance with many directions to go. #3 ON K P has some buried form and early speed (Quad I) at this allowance level and from this year exiting the races at Turfway Park. Granted he was racing in for the $30k tag, the purse and par is a lateral move returning to Hawthorne. The same class angle applies to #11 BLUE NORTHER with buried form and should be overlooked here for the connections and off the claim, where price compensation should be found and is required. 

#8 FORREST CITY wheels right back from the March 16^th race where he lost his footing (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and unable to show the early speed he is capable of and likely to show more tactical speed today with intent wheeling back for this race. #2 BEEALEA was entered in that March 16^th common race though Boyce deciding (trainer scratch) to wait for this spot and the added ground that certainly benefit the run style and preference for this individual. That race is noted with both #10 COMISKEY PARK and #6 BASEBALL POLITICS (morning line favorites) returning here and runners that hold established form, though at the same time are the types that tend to need everything in their favor (including catching the right field) to get the win. 

#10 REINVESTMENT RISK is no doubt the class of the field and strong number wise landing in this spot first off the purchase by Klopp. He was purchased at the Keeneland sale in January and appears to have the season ahead for him at HS Indy for Klopp and their main ownership group. Given the timing and placement here they could also be race ready and this spot to regain some confidence and a piece of their “investment” in this allowance event. 

#7 GOLDEN HORNET was a vet scratch from the OC $62.5k allowance just last week (3/30) though that issue appears minor as they wheel right back to the entries and for this race. His form fits at this level and with more time between starts which could have been a factor on the quick 15-day turnaround on March 12^th. Winebaugh has used the turf-to-dirt move twice with #4 BOCA BOY the move resulting in wins on both occasions and will look to make today 3-for-3 coming in from the turf sprint last month at Gulfstream Park.

The other “Squares” in this field #2 TETSU, #6 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE and #8 HUEY ATTACK require a lot of racing luck and a top effort to win, though capable given their form and run style for a minor share. 

#6 SUPER WISE is kept on the radar and can be given an upgrade making their debut on this circuit and with the same connections sending out open length winner, Unbridled Annsley, a Fair Grounds shipper to score dominantly here last Sunday, April 2^nd. 

The “Fire” Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate present a pace dynamic to set up a runner from just off the pace. #2 PISTOL BOX has the strongest (Big Square) late kick, though position deeper in Quad IV, could be left with too much to do late and requires fair odds. The first run on Quad I, sits with #3 HIGH BROW and #7 GLOBAL EMPIRE both runners returning from solid efforts in their seasonal debut as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. Tactically, #4 MOMENT has been able to “stalk and pounce” and that could be the trip they are going to shift to today coming back from the place finish on March 16^th with a rider change to Hernandez. 

The “Green” PlotFit (OptixPLOT) in play for the finale and a scenario where #4 CHOPPER projects to show early speed (Quad I above Par Line) once again and will look to wire the field. In addition, Cook will also return with #1 DEVIL’S RULE looking to improve once again and comes back for this third start of the season with an improving pattern and back numbers that stack up on par. Their form and RunStyle could get overlooked and is shown on the Plot in line with rivals #6 D’ARCHER, #8 RISKY BOY and #9 EASTER MUSIC – likely shorter priced of the group looking for that first run on CHOPPER (Circle) and #2 TAKE ME UP BRADY. The change in post for #10 ONE WAY HOME could also have them closer to the pace today where trip again comes into play with the draw though in good hands with Ortiz, a rider that has confidence/success with this horse. 

#7 BOOM FIVE THOUSAND is a legit longshot in this race though has form on their best day and even some early speed that could have them competitive in today’s race with another move forward keying off a subtle progressive pattern in the third start off the layoff. 

Really not a ton in here along the lines of early speed. I'm thinking 3-SCRAPE has a shot to contend as she has faced tougher in her first three starts and ships in for a barn that has had success this meet. She's working consistently toward her return and should be ready. 4-SHORT STRAW debuts in here for a barn that is off to a hot start. She gets Lasix for the debut and comes in off a decent gate drill. Let's see what kind of action she takes. 1-EVIE JEAN has raced ok in her first two starts of the meet. I liked her on opening day as she chased and finished third in that spot. There looks to be others in here with more early speed but she should be able to rate mid-pack and run on in the lane.

Despite the shorter field there looks to be a decent amount of pace in this race which could set things up for 1-STRIKE PRICE. He appears fit off recent starts over the poly in Kentucky and posted a good drill here back at the start of March. If the speed does hook up, look for him to save ground and run on in the lane. 6-WILDWOOD'S WARRIOR comes off races in Arkansas against a bit better company. His two best races have come over this Hawthorne strip and he has shown speed in both of those starts. 3-AWESOME WILLY is the second Becker in here as he also figures to be close early.  He wired the field in his maiden score last out and will just need to avoid a pace battle today to contend once again.

Anyone in here can win this race as I gave the nod to 5-BIRDIE BE GONE. She has worked consistently toward her return and looks to have tactical speed in a race that doesn't have a ton of early pace. She may be gearing up for a summer in Minnesota but can't be dismissed as this barn typically has theirs ready off the layoff. 6-PALACE MAGIC has run a pair of good races this meet, just missing at this level last out. Her record over the track is solid as she figures to rate closest to the early pace in this race today. That pace looks to come from 3-GO STORMIN GIRL as she won at this level here last fall. Her last two starts have come against much tougher and she drops back down to a level where she figures to make the top early. She's 12/19 ITM at Hawthorne which is a bonus as well.

Curious as to how the pace will play out in here as there are a few that could go early but none of these are truly committed to the front. Went to 1-KEEN RESPONSE as he seems to put in the most consistent efforts of any in this field. He was defeated by Option four races back (who is also in this field) but he had a terrible trip that day. He came back and won his next start before taking on tougher in his two most recent races. He's back to a level where he should be very competitive today. 5-RIP IT RYAN ran a good race at this level in his last despite being hung a bit wide in that spot. He's winless over the track but has found the board in half of his 12 Hawthorne starts. I expect him to sit mid-pack early here and move forwardly in the lane. 4-BRODY'S FLY comes in from Kentucky after being claimed two starts back. He did try to step up off the claim in his last but didn't have much success. He fits well here and should be forwardly placed today.

While on paper it doesn't appear that 9-MAGIC BEAUTY was more than a runner-up who was well back in her last, take into regard that the winner of that race, Mendrel nearly set a track record in her debut and has since been sold for six figures off that start. Magic Beauty was able to chase into the lane in that spot and never really gave in as despite a bit of a wide trip she ran on late for place. 8-OLIVE'S CANDY comes in off the claim as she shortens up a bit in here. She was well intended in her debut as she was sent off at 9-2 against MSW company but that may have been as much as players betting the barn (Cox) in that spot. A game effort in her last, followed by the claim, has her well placed it would appear today. 7-SLEEPY CAT debuts for Robertson after spending the winter in New Orleans. The Illinois-bred first timer gets Lasix for this race and Three Hour Nap babies always seem to run well at Hawthorne.

A really good race from a betting perspective as well as with how competitive this field is. 7-FORREST CITY faced many of these last out and was left with too much to try to overcome after a brutal start. With a clean trip today, along with the added distance, he figures to rate much closer early and contend into the lane. Perfect timing at the season just got underway with 6-BASEBALL POLITICS and 10-COMISKEY PARK both racing back. Baseball Politics gets the better of the post draws here as he has tactical speed and may even get sent away early as we welcome bug girl Hannah Leahey into the Hawthorne jock's quarters. He was game in his last and will be a factor once again, especially if the track is holding speed. Comiskey Park always seems to run competitively but with five runner-up efforts from his last seven races at this level you have to wonder if he will run by late. Look for him to be sent for position early from the gate and let's see if he can clear.

This is a really difficult race as there appears to be a decent amount of pace in here. I really liked how 7-GLOBAL EMPIRE battled on late last out ass he wasn't given much consideration in that race, being sent off at 32-1 in the six horse field. Speed held well that day and he was still able to run on in the lane. He's clearly bred to handle the two turns and may just be coming into his own. Every time I overlook 5-ASTI SKY, he just up and runs a big race. I think he's a better horse at two turns and dismissed him last out. He got away extremely well in that spot and ended up winning the 5 1/2 furlong sprint. He has run well at Hawthorne but will need to avoid racing into a pace battle today. 3-HIGH BROW has never run worse than second in seven starts over the track. He's another that should be too far out of it early but has also shown the ability to rate and run on late if others do go upfront.

6-D'ARCHER returns to make his second start of the meet as he comes in off a game effort last out. After breaking through the gate prior to the start of that race he was reloaded and still ran on late. There looks to be enough pace in here to chase as he should be able to settle in the second flight early and run on in the lane. 9-EASTER MUSIC loves this Hawthorne strip, posting six wins and hitting the board in 11/19 starts over the track. He makes his first start of the year but has three works toward the return and should be ready today. 5-FORT RIDGE is going to need pace to chase but he may find enough of it in this spot. He also makes his first start of the meet as he comes in with a pair of drills. Half of his ten career victories have come at Hawthorne as he should sneak away at a bit of a price.

Yes, one of these runners will be a maiden no more after this race but none have really shown the ability to leave the maiden ranks. One might take one of the first timers since they haven’t yet lost but they are making their debut at this low level for a reason. So, going to take a chance with 2-STRONGENOUGHSTORM. I like the speed she displayed in last, her first start in nearly 10 months. She could improve off that effort. 6-BUMPER GIRL didn’t get close but she was at least competitive in her two races this year. 4-SHORT STRAW debuts off modest drills but races for hot connections.

6-WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR looks tough. He hadn’t been making much of an impact at Oaklawn but he’s dropping in class and stretching back out. Could “outclass” the rest of the speed. This is a speed-filled field and what has been a speed-favoring surface. It’s possible one of the runners will clear early but it seems more likely that a speed duel could develop. 3-AWESOME WILLY, stablemate of top choice, sports good speed. He just wired the field in a low-level maiden claimer in last. Obviously meets better here and would likely get caught in a speed duel with his partner but did like the way he looked in his maiden score. Don’t really like 1-STRIKE PRICE but he does look like the only real closer. Would expect him to show some late run but not sure how much.

6-PALACE MAGIC just missed at this level in last after a stretch-long speed duel. Versatile runner got claimed from that start. Not sure where she’ll be racing today since so many of her rivals have the same versatility but would imagine that she’ll be forwardly placed throughout. 3-GO STORMIN GIRL finished up the track in her last couple of races but she was taking on tougher rivals in those starts. Drops from starters back into claimers. Can awaken. 2-SAMARITA had been in decent form last fall but dropped to the $5k tag and beat only one rival while going off as the favorite. She was claimed from that race. Moves up in claiming price for this. Like the way she’s been working. Have to consider despite that last race.

1-KEEN RESPONSE showed little in his 2023 debut but raced on a synthetic surface for the first time. He had, however, been in good form here late last year. Drops to the right level and moves back to the right surface. 4-BRODY’S FLY beat one rival in last, his first race after getting claimed by this barn. He was also racing on synth but he won his maiden race in his previous start so he was better able to handle the surface. He’s also dropping for this. He hadn’t shown anything in previous dirt starts but he has to be given the benefit of the doubt at this level. 8-OPTION scored a narrow maiden victory here back in November. He led throughout in that race but barely hung on. He hasn’t raced since November but he’s been training well for his return. Could be in the hunt throughout.

Can’t find a standout in this race. The runners were the highest speed figures only raced at Turfway on their synthetic track. There’s no guarantee that those “figs” will be the same here. So, opting to go with first timer 6-FIT AND FAMOUS. She’s had some great drills and has been working with regularity. Might only be prepping for the forthcoming Iowa meet but going to give her the benefit of the doubt. One of the Turfway runners is likely to be favored. 8-OLIVE’S CANDY just missed in a low-level maiden claimer there while racing for one of the top barns in the country. She got claimed from that race. But her races and works were all on synthetic track and she’s meeting what should be a better group here. 2-JOYZELLA turns back in distance. She finished a distant second in last going long. She pressed the pace in that contest but seems more likely to make a late run at them today.

Oh my. I’m going to do it again. I thought blinkers on, finally, 10-COMISKEY PARK was going to propel him over the top. But even a perfect ride by Chris Emigh couldn’t get this perpetual tease to cross the wire first. Once again they’ll be meeting many others with speed but I’m hoping racing with blinkers for the second time as well as a recent race under his belt will do the trick. 6-BASEBALL POLITICS dueled with top pick early in last, was taken back, but surged late to get back to third, finishing a little over a length behind top choice. The longer distance of this race, as well as utilizing an apprentice with her seven-pound weight allowance, just might give him the edge. 1-BALDINE will make a late run. He showed little in his first start of the meet but expect him to be fitter for this event.

Neither 4-MOMENT nor 3-HIGH BROW ever finished worse than second when racing at Hawthorne. Moment won three of his four starts here, with one second, while High Brow has had seven local races with four wins and three seconds. Both own good speed and figure to be prominent from the start. It was hard separating them but going to give Moment a slight edge, thinking he might be a bit quicker from the gate. High Brow has had only one race that wasn’t contested at Hawthorne. This homebred broke his maiden for $6250 a year ago. He got claimed from that race but was quickly taken back in his next start and has done well since. He just finished second in an allowance race in his first local start of the year. This is his first venture into allowance company. He’s going to be right there throughout. 6-SUPER WISE, fresh off the claim, invades from Louisiana. He’s had some luck in starter company but did finish about five lengths behind top pick in a December Fair Grounds race. Still, he was claimed by sharp connections. Can have an impact.

Wide-open contest as races at this condition generally are. I’ve been speed handicapping pretty much but with warmer weather expect there to be more “surface” on the track with somewhat fairer outcomes. 6-D’ARCHER isn’t a big closer but he does possess a good late move and there should be enough pace in this race to set things up for him. He finished behind Chopper in his last but the extra furlong distance of this race works in his favor. He won five of his 16 races at the distance. Can win another. 2-TAKE ME UP BRADY and 4-CHOPPER could duel for the lead but if one of the two breaks alertly and grabs an unchallenged lead, he could be long gone.

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P 1 Tesla Power 2 Oh Gouda 3 Ashlees Sweetie

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T 2 Cleveland Massimo 6 Day At The Gym 3 Bella Cavalla

T 8 Enola 2 Time Like These 10 Horn Player

P 1 Elises Delight 2 Mist Amber 3 Feelin Fancy

T 4 Southwind Cerveza 8 Electro Long Legs 2 Oceanview Massey

P 2 Write The Rules 4 Western Flames 6 Ultimate Speed

P 8 Sunshineinmypocket 3 Mittany Nicole 5 Rockinwithcustard

P 1 E R Rhonda 5 Latte Seelster 9 Millies Million

P 9 Thundering Jim 6 Four For Orr 8 Nates Bucky