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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri April 7th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Oaklawn Park Race 1

Post Time 12:35 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The first of 10 on the Friday starts with a formidable pair of Diodoro runners with #1 JUBELLA and #2 BRITTLE AND YOO projected as the shorter priced runners in this race. Looking to get creative: #5 SAND AND SEA holds allowance form that fits with this field, though will be tested for stamina around two turns. #6 FAST AND FEMININE wheels right back with the added ground in this second start of the meet. The March 24th race is worth noting with the WEATHER conditions that impacted the results and ultimately the card as the final two races were cancelled.  

Oaklawn Park Race 2

Post Time 1:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 EL GEMAR will make just his second start at this $12.5k maiden claiming level and that alone could give him the edge over rivals, #5 KING DOODLE (vet scr 3/23) and #9 ORDER OF MERIT two runners with form at this level and minor finishes though still must show more for the win. 

#7 TAP THAT DIAL makes his debut at this $12.5k level and with progressive form this year looks placed today to compete and clear the maiden level. Similar for #8 EIGHT STRAIGHT as he cuts back to a sprint from a TACTIC- and WIDE trip on March 19th and back to a sprint with upside noting the higher level of competition sprinting back in February. 

Oaklawn Park Race 3

Post Time 1:44 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Both #2 LET'S DUET and #4 MISTY VEIL fit logically in this conditional allowance race off their current form, class and speed figures this season. 

#7 BOW BOW GIRL also has buried form that fits at this level and recorded races here at Oaklawn Park. The timing today for the third start off the layoff and with Jordan back aboard could see her sitting on that peak race and "surprise" at a price 

Oaklawn Park Race 4

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Morning line favorite #5 DIXIE FURY would be no surprise in here, however they have come up short as the favorite without excuse and that is another potential liability here. #1 DARK AFTERNOON also projects to be a shorter price and will be out to validate the debut number catching an off track, racing in the rain/WEATHER, and in a maiden race that has not been productive thus far. 

#3 MISSIN CURFEW returns to Oaklawn Park where they broke their maiden back in January. Some excuses can be given on March 12th as they were unprepared (GATE) at the start off slow (SLOG) and moved up early and wide before losing ground and not asked late. 

#6 TEAM LEADER is a new face looking to transfer their current form that fits on the synthetic to the dirt. Some upside could be present as Asmussen runs here for the higher $50k tag, following the claim for $15k two back. #4 MEAN TWEETS has some progressive form this season as well and returning from the two month break could assist as far as intent. 

Oaklawn Park Race 5

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The runners with experience this season could have that as an edge today, however they have come up short without excuse and left something to be desired to look outside that group for a top contender. 

Riley Mott will debut #2 MY TALLULAH here noting some intent for this meet as she has been training here all season. The barn sent out a live first time starter at a route last week and could carry similar intent and run here. 

Asmussen also with a pair brings back #6 FLIRTING GIRL to a belated second start. While there was not excuse in trip on debut (bet down from 6-1 ML) the 187-day layoff did follow and she returns with steady works.

#9 SWEET SWEETFANTASY is one of two for McPeek (barn also with first time starter #7 PARIS STYLE) and while SWEET is not a "new" face she is to this barn. She has some buried form and figures and with some improvement stacks right up with the others that have the local form this meet and added upside potential. 

Oaklawn Park Race 6

Post Time 3:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 MRS. BEANS is logical as the favorite with consistent form, some of the higher recorded speed figures and slight class change returning to statebred and allowance company here. #2 TWISTED DIXIE could also suggest intent with the barn and rider change, subtle changes looking for the first win of the meet. 

#8 DATA STORM has his best races "buried" in his pp's and comes into this race with progressive form this season. Intent could also be in play from a solid run (B- OptixGRADE) in the March 23rd allowance, a common race with others in this field and suggesting he is doing well with the layoff line history and wheeling back today on the 15-day turnaround. 

Oaklawn Park Race 7

Post Time 3:54 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A case can be made for any of the 11 in this field, which creates a scenario to look for a price and value on runners that could get overlooked and dismissed. 

#9 ONE FOR RICHIE could be that horse as they hold form at this level and numbers that stack up on par and the positive timing today on a second start of the form cycle where the number should sit in the double digits following the pair of off-the-board finishes. 

#10 RIBBONS AND MEDALS has buried form at Oaklawn Park and Diodoro could have this one well-spotted to compete if ready for a top effort returning from the 82-day layoff. 

Broberg with a pair that includes #5 JACKMAN as the morning line favorite. The post alone could see #11 COLTONS DREAM dismissed even with the recent running lines and finishing position. Their ability to show early speed could assist to overcome the post position and press #2 SIDETOWN looking for first run. 

Oaklawn Park Race 8

Post Time 4:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As the morning line favorite, #2 TOUGH LEGACY has some positives and negatives. On the positive side she has improved number wise with each start; and as a negative has the consistent pattern of gate/SLOG for each start as well.

#6 CORNINGSTONE was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) winning the Ms Indiana Stakes and one to follow on that circuit this year. At the same time she has run well against open company and with races that stack up with this field. She could be sitting on an improved race for what appeared a PREP coming off the layoff with the ride/TACTIC- and WIDE trip on March 5th. 

#5 BOSS LADY BAILEY returns to allowance company where she has been more effective than when in against stakes company and that includes a solid effort under similar conditions back in January. 

Oaklawn Park Race 9

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Trip could come into play and create value as well with a Contentious expected early pace from (but not limited to) #3 GREAT ESCAPE, #5 SEIZE THE NIGHT and #7 DON'T FORGET -- all three the morning lines favorites. 

#4 ALEJANDRO should have plenty of pace for his RunStyle to pair up with current BTL form. 

#10 RED RUN will remain on the main track here for Maker and could be the surface he has been looking for all along. The surface change (and two turn distance) also appeared to benefit #1 GHOSTLORE prior to the layoff and could see him returning to his peak performance today making this second start off the layoff, the added ground and fitness from the WIDE trip last month. 

Oaklawn Park Race 10

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Another competitive race to close out the card with the "logicals" #2 IMPOVERISHED, #6 DANCIN ROCKET and #11 AUX ARCS also capable here. That group has come up short at this level and maybe they just land in the right time and place though there could be others capable of stepping up looking to "upset."

#9 DEVLISH HOUR returns from the 112-day layoff and first start in for the maiden claiming tag where he top efforts fits on par and holds upside from the trip/TACTIC- on December 16th returning with a live rider in Pedroza for Robertson.

#5 PAID DOUBLE also presents upside in their second start and first in for the maiden claiming tag. #7 PEPPERONIKID debuted at this level back on March 11th turning in a BTL effort with not much in his favor from start to finish. The connection bring him back today for the tag and from a subtle excuse given the class rise and X_WIDE trip just 13-days ago.