Handicapper Tips & Picks

The race shape creates an added challenge handicapping this race with out many (if any) front running types. #6 BAYOU SARGE has shown early speed though also has come up short (same for #8 BRAVO BRAVO) at this level. #4 TRIVISTA could look to pick up the slack as one that is not a confirmed front runner, though has enough tactical speed to fall into that role here. 

Class wise the drop for #7 SONO GRATO moves him up here and that alone could see him closer to the pace than he has run in his races here this season. #3 EGO is a confirmed closer where trip comes into play and value as well (value concerns with #5 R DOC) with that RunStyle despite being logical on the other handicapping factors. 

#1 RYE HUMOR has back races that make him a fit and could be given another look with a subtle excuse on March 30th after given a tiring WARM_UP and the SLOG/TROUBLE_S that followed. 

Morning line favorite, #6 FABULOUS FANNY is logical returning to the $30k maiden claiming level where she moved up on the drop (and off the excuse on 1/14) to finish second on February 12th. #1 CHARTREUSE was upgraded in that February common race with the much required class drop, following the Special Weight races where she ran overmatched.

The class drop today projects to move up #2 CHARLIZE based on her races this season where he has been overmatched against Special Weight and should find the right level here. 

Value becomes the prime concern with #2 WILLOW CREEK ROAD stretching out in distance for the first time and going off at projected shorter odds today than the other two races this season. Distance was the unknown for #9 ONE TEN STADIUM back on March 26th though still given a look in that race with hidden form, class and speed figure edge. His second place run was credible and did so with adversity (TRAFFIC) behind his favored stablemate winner, Man in the Can. 

#6 BIG SUCCESS has buried form from his races this season. He was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) with the win on December 10th and showed run in the BTL effort back on February 5th and the trips/lack of intent that followed where positive appears back in play following the 42-day freshening. 

#7 DINNER AT CRUMPIES is another with buried form and even given excuses for his races this season. He looked to be "given" the January 22nd race returning from the layoff and compromised by rider TACTIC- and "trips" followed with legit TROUBLE on February 10th. Following the TROUBLE the connections wheeled back on short rest and unable to become effective with the timing and WIDE trip. They have been freshened for this return and could be sitting on a top effort with the rider change also noted. 

#2 HARD SPUN FANTASY earned a follow from the debut especially from a physical standpoint looking for added (STRETCH) ground. He found that in his second star though despite making a positive physical appearance (PRERACE+) was compromised with the race flow (X_FLOW) still showing run (MOVE) in the 8th place finish and overall appearance to suggest he still has more to show. 

Asmussen returns with the pair from the March 11th race. #4 KINGDOM had the benefit of the promotion though did not appear to be doing enough at the time. He earned a C+ OptixGRADE the same grade for #1 TEJAS, one that could present a move forward from the debut and X_WIDE trip.

#8 SOYBEAN MAN also has shown some run in spots and with some subtle trips going back to the SLOG on debut and racing in traffic on March 18th. 

#9 TOWN BRANCH fits back under similar conditions. He can be upgraded from a solid effort behind open length winner, Summer in Malibu (running later on the card) with the place finish back on March 5th. 

#8 LUCKY DUDE also has ran in the March 5th common race where the SLOG and 5.5f distance was a tough combination to overcome. He rebounded on March 23rd with a competitive B- OptixGRADE effort making a WIDE MOVE in that fourth place result. 

#7 CONCEPT (no value) appears logical though can be a bit PLODDY and lack GRIT- as he showed in his two most recent starts. That includes the 2/25 HOU race where the TROUBLE- was exaggerated and lacked excuse after taking a short lead unable to hold in a BLANKET finish at the wire. Stablemate #1 ST. ANDREWS makes his return to the Asmussen barn where he began his career and has back numbers and buried form that makes him a player in this race. 

#5 IMMORAL has the chance to rebound today freshened off the claim by Compton and returning to a sprint and the $12.5k N2 claiming level.

#10 MIDNIGHT MAJESTY appears logical and intended here with the change in class looking to place him at the right conditions to win. #2 STREET ART stayed on as the BOS/Best of the Speed though on a moderate pace and was NO_FINISH late. 

This is a competitive and quality conditional Optional Claiming event where any number of horses winning this race would be no surprise. 

#8 NECKER ISLAND listed as the morning line favorite and should be in the right spot to get back on track with the class relief, distance change and subtle trips to move up from here. 

As noted earlier on the card, #4 SUMMER IN MALIBU was dominant (B+) on March 5th though his race luck changed with the EX - EXCUSE on April 1st. The trip is one worth going back to watch as he was not given a chance with the ride (TACTIC-) and TROUBLE,  still showing run and interest all the way to the wire. 

Value is the concern for #2 TUT'S REVENGE - the main knock. The price compensation moves up #1 SIR WELLINGTON as he makes his second start off the layoff with the quick turnaround. He has back numbers and even class here at Oaklawn Park winning a stakes race last year. 

This is an open event with a contentious pace that comes into play adding more story lines and complexion to the race. #4 EMERALD PRINCESS and #8 HAIL COLUMBIA fit logically as individuals, though must contend (and run a top effort) with today's race shape in order to win. 

#1 DISTORTED SECRETS was all out and well-intended at the first part of the season with the class drop turning in the win on December 9th though was all out (HARD) and set her back in her form cycle. Since that time she has been able to recover and appears to be cycling back to a top effort.

As the early pace projects to be contentious, #10 CHASING SHADOWS could finally find the right spot this season for her run style. She has been reclaimed by Villafranco, a barn that has reclaimed her and run her competitively since 2022. #11 MY DAMS ATITUDE is another that could find herself in the right spot to compete. She is eligible for this condition and while she will run against open company here, the class change is a slight drop from the higher level statebred allowance races she has been in this season. 

With "pace making the race" it creates the prime handicapping factor for this race with half of the field sharing the E/EP RunStyle. With that noted there should be plenty of early pace for the morning line favorite, #5 TEJANO TWIST to close into as they look to pair up wins returning from the Whitmore (G3) last month. 

That pace scenario along with the step up in class could make things tougher for #2 SKELLY (Quad I Large Circle) and the outside draw for #10 STROBE returning from the 78-day layoff - both runners on the class rise for their graded stakes debut. #4 CANDY MAN ROCKET will also be tested in this spot and could receive a lot of public support for the connections without much of an edge in this race as a Quad III Circle. 

#8 COGBURN is another front running type, though with the rider change to Rosario, there could be a slight change in tactic today and overall could present a move forward in this third start off the layoff and rebounding from the Whitmore (G3) regression. 

#6 RADICAL RIGHT also could show a rebound today noting TROUBLE last month in the Phx Gold Cup. His issues began in the GATE, unprepared at the start, lunged as the doors opened creating a trip and forcing an early move (X_FLOW) from the rail to get into the race impacting his final result. 

#7 SURVEILLANCE is another that could benefit from the race shape with his stalking RunStyle to work a trip and try to establish first run on Tejano Twist. He has numbers that stack up on par and a competitive effort (B- OptixGRADE) in his only other graded stakes attempt, the Commonwealth (G3) last spring at Keeneland. 

The pace/race dynamic could change here with #13 UPSTRIKER and #14 LAMUTANAATTY sitting on the AE as runners that should they compete project to be forwardly placed and create a more contentious early pace.

Without those runners in the field, the trip pace becomes "softer" and creating a more favorable scenario for #9 SLAM DUNK SERMON and #11 ESPIONAGE. 

#7 COSMO fits back at this level keying off the December 30th race and WIDE trip earning a B- OptixGRADE. The win last month could assist in gaining some confidence to pair wins. #5 LOST IN LIMBO could get "lost" on the board for the connections and upgraded with value compensation. 

Value compensation is required and should be there today for #10 CITY RAGE as he returns in this spot and with the barn change. He is recently eligible for this condition with the $30k claiming tag in play on March 17th. 

#1 NGALA turned in a BTL effort on debut to run on after a compromising start. The tactics change on April 1st sending her into the lead and staying on as the BOS despite coming up short late. 

#8 NEXT THURSDAY finished right behind NGALA and is one that has been consistent on the track and even slight progression number wise, though still much show a little more to win. Interesting on April 1st with #7 ALOHA BABY making her debut and supported heavily off the 6-1 morning line. She ran well given the outside post, WIDE trip and appears intent wheeling back for this race and against some familiar rivals. 

#9 COUNT IT ALL JOY is tough to knock as she has raced close to fast early paces and improved number wise race to race. Timing could come into play wheeling right back in a week, the 7-day turnaround being something new for her exiting the Rainbow Miss stakes. 

#3 CASHMERE BABY is given a mention landing here for her debut. There has been intent to debut here noting the published works from late last year and with the gap that followed before the series in March to prepare for this race.