Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 NOT VERY GENTLE turned in a solid B- OptixGRADE effort with the place finish in his March 26^th return. That result can be upgraded given the four horse field and lone/flow winner he was chasing on that day. The pace does not project to be overly contentious with the Snowflake designation, though some contention with today’s Surface/Distance with #4 FORT RIDGE, #5 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE and #6 COSMIC TREASURE.

#1 IRISH MAJOR also given a mention with progress this season and returning to the route distance exiting the March 30th race with a B- OptixGRADE with the CLOSE for place and solid GALLOP+ after the wire.

Some regression could be in play for #7 STAN THE CAMERAMAN as he will be required to hold his form and was well-intended with a subtle pace advantage here on March 23^rd.  With that said, he could still have the edge over others in this field (Quad I Square) and from the runners with recency and returning layoff runner, #8 HOUR CAT. Age is also noted as just one of two three-year-old runners in the field with first time starter, #4 DURANGO CHROME being the other sophomore.

#5 CALICO JOE physically has a “turf” look though also has buried form on this Hawthorne circuit and main track that stacks up on par.  Age wise Calico Joe is one the opposite end as one of the five-year-old runners in this race. The other five-year-old is second time starter, #6 SUPER CITRO where age comes into play for this runner making that belated racing debut just last month.

#3 CHIEF MYSTIQUE was overlooked off a competitive (B- OptixGRADE) race despite the 5^th place finish on March 9^th and paired up (B- OptixGRADE) effort with the show finish on March 23^rd. He projects to hold his form here and even capable in terms of a stalking trip to win and playable with value compensation. 

#1 T J MUNNINGS has spent the majority of his racing career running races at a route of ground and could appreciate this distance change going SHORTER for the first time in a long time.

#4 LUCKY SHOT projects to sit on a top effort in this second start back off the layoff and fitness from a WIDE trip last month. Trainer Dee Poulos used a similar “second off” pattern last year and with the rider change to Centeno picking up the place finish on December 10^th.

#5 ROCKET HOTSHOT had pace to close into on March 16^th though just unable to reach the front running Vanden Berg trained Rally Squirrel that day. They should have pace and form coming back to this race though trip again comes into play (value required) with the off-the-pace running style.

As far as the morning line favorite, #6 RACARINO he was well meant, placed, and ridden to get the win off the layoff back on March 5^th. He was all out to hold late in a tight photo and that is noted with the return today, a slight step up in class and must hold form for a horse that has a history of layoff lines. 

#7 SILVER CHILLER is given a follow off his March 26^th debut and projects to IMPROVE. The track listed as muddy with the race run in the rain. Silver Chiller was GREEN from the GATE playing a role in the SLOG and showing run making a move and more interest than perhaps the running line and finishing position suggests.

Some excuses can be made for #2 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN in each of his three starts. He debuted against open company and overmatched at the Special Weight level in January 2022 with that race followed up by the longer layoff. He returned from that layoff on February 2^nd, looking a bit short and upgraded as far as trip/pace. Trip also played against him with TRAFFIC wheeling back on February 20^th and the finishing position taken with a grain of salt behind an open length winner.

#6 DASH TO THE CASH finishing second that day and one that has the established form as a more proven, experienced type where what you see is what you get. #5 MEDAL KING also returns from that March 26^th common race and also looking to improve from that event and from his GREEN debut going back to 2021 at Arlington Park. 

The third start off the layoff has been a time for #5 PO BOY to run a top effort. He has early speed and one that can be tough on the lead with a top effort and could have that pace advantage here. Pace/PLOT also can upgrade #8 HEAVENLY TRIP for Surface/Distance and worth keeping on the radar in terms of value and even some intent here first off the claim and picking up a live rider in Julio Felix.

The distance change for #1 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER comes into question as far as value and intent making that return to one turn for the first time since June 2021.  #2 HATCHET CREEK has turned in competitive races this season in less than ideal trips. A rider change will be made following the WIDE trip last out and show finish with subtle tactical errors by Colon. #3 IRISH TUFF has been able to show early speed in the past though has returned this season from the layoff with the pattern of SLOG, the slow starts. With that said, he has been able to show some progression race-to-race and could present another move forward here with the benefit of those races and the slight addition of ground. 

#7 APOLLO U ANYWHERE could hold a pace advantage with her early speed and sitting in the right time and place this afternoon with the class drop and fitness for this third start off the layoff. #5 SNOOTY also has some early speed and a subtle class change from the open $5k claiming group on April 2^nd. As far as that race (and the full EX – EXCUSE on 12/17) could be in play as she was fractious rearing up in the GATE with an awkward break chasing the eventual winner on a WEATHER day it was tougher to pass horses in the stretch.

#4 RANK AND FILE is tougher to assess as Hughes has been running this horse in much tougher than her abilities since the claim last year. Going back to those races last fall, RANK AND FILE was competitive under similar circumstances to today’s race and could move up with that change and off the “trips” this year as shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

#8 NO NANNETTE NO is listed as the morning line favorite and has some challenges in this spot and should she inherit that role. Sullivan runners have been a little cold and under performing types even when fitting “logically” like this mare here. With today’s class she fits at this level and with numbers on par, though trip must be considered with the shorter price attached as a runner that lacks early speed and will cut back to a sprint. #1 COUGER also has challenges as far as pace with the distance change, though also carries recency and form over this course and potential intent with Giles taking over today for Perez, a live barn and rider/trainer combination. 

The race shape/pace (OptixPLOT) could see #2 VALIANTLY DISCREET with the early lead and pace advantage in this spot. He has that edge over many returning to this $25k N2 condition from the common races this season. The exception could be #4 VERRAZANOINTHESKY for this second start off the layoff, returning from a TROUBLE trip on March 26^th and has back numbers that stand out returning to a top effort as a contender.

#8 PRIZE FIGHTER returns from the layoff, showing up for a Hawthorne debut and returns to make his first start in against winners today. He has some buried form and has recorded some of the higher figures in this field going back to his first two starts, both main track sprints at Churchill Downs from 2021, his abbreviated sophomore racing season. 

#6 EDITOR IN CHIEF was able to benefit from a favorable, PERFECT trip with some racing luck as their main rival had some trouble back on March 19^th. They will be tested to hold their form returning off the layoff for the second start of the cycle, though is a lightly raced type and can be encouraging that Tracy sees fit to run back in this spot and at this higher level on the 28-day turnaround.

#5 BANDIT SWANSON has back class and form that makes him a logical type here though age might be starting to catch up to him as he has lacked some of his tactical speed from prior season. Hernandez/Donato will also show up with #4 PROTONIC POWER, the younger of the two and still lightly raced with upside and solid speed figures from his most recent starts that stack up on par. Trip/pace could be his main challenge as he tends to make his run from off the pace and will require some tactical speed in this group and over this Hawthorne main course. 

#4 ROARINGLIKETHUNDER had a “longshot” look back on March 30^th returning to make their second start of the meet, and coming back from the March 16^th race struggling (NO_HANDLE) with the inside trip. They showed a little more early speed making a wide trip before losing ground and showed early speed with the races last summer at Timonium. If there is a return to those races and efforts, this should be the time with the foundation, fitness and picking up first time Lasix while still In light as Giles remains aboard.

Reavis raced #8 BELLS OF JOY into form last season with a top figure and effort in the third start of the form cycle and has that similar pattern for today’s race. #5 MAIDEN ROCK can also be upgraded from March 30^th with progressive OptixGRADES in this third start of the cycle and solid GALLOP+ finishing in a blanket for the minors behind the pacesetting open length winner, G Money Liv.

#6 QUEEN IN THE NORTH has back numbers and consistent figures including her dirt races that stack up on par. Some intent could be In play as she returns from the extreme dynamic race shape on March 2^nd and picking this spot to run, nothing she was a trainer scratch for Rodriguez back on March 24^th at Turfway Park. 

Pace makes the race and who is going with 6-COSMIC TREAURE in here? Doesn't appear anyone is. He comes off a good win in his last at Mahoning Valley and has won two of his last three. Those both did come in the mud though and we will have to see how he takes to the main track today. 5-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE may try to rate a bit closer to the early pace as he has had some success here as well. The barn is having a good meet and the class relief should help as well. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE ran a decent race off the layoff in his last. The pace wasn't quick in that spot but he did run evenly in the lane. With not much speed in here today he can be expected to contend early once again.

Unlike the opener, there seems to be quite a bit of pace in this race. If ready, 5-CALICO JOE may be able to rate and rally in the lane. He is working well toward the return for a barn that tends to have them ready off the layoff. If 2-3 go in here, look for him to come charging in the lane. 7-STAN THE CAMERAMAN ran a big race last out as he was pushed every step of the way and never tossed in the towel. He may face some pressure once again but with no choice but to be sent, he could potentially leave for the top too. 1-C F V NOBODYCARES hasn't run poorly in his first two starts of the meet as he may sneak off at a bit of a price. If it is a bit of a back track in here, there's the potential for him to pick off some runners in the lane.

A really competitive race here as there's the potential for a good amount of early pace. 6-RACARINO is one that was game in victory last out as he faced a solid field on opening day. He comes into here with an easy drill but runs well fresh and may sneak off at a decent price. 2-TEE BURNS has been good here at Hawthorne, finding the board in five of six starts over the track. He battled in his last and if there is some rain it will only benefit his chances. 5-ROCKET HOTSHOT may be a bit of a sleeper as he figures to sit back early and close with a rush in the lane. He has been running around two turns in his recent starts but has some sprint efforts that would put him in the mix. Let's see how the track is playing.

There really isn't a ton of pace in here which makes me think my top two choices are the ones that run 1-2 the whole way around. While 5-PO BOY may be faster to the front, I expect 8-HEAVENLY TRIP to sit right off of him early and get the jump on the others into the lane. After being claimed the second week of March, he has since come back with a good work over the track. The distance suits as he should get a perfect trip. 5-PO BOY has been solid in four straight races and cannot be dismissed in here. He made the top in his last two and while he was able to hold on at five furlongs, he gave way late at 5 1/2. I do expect he isn't pushed as hard early in here, but this may not be his best distance. 1-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER has some back class as he shortens up for today's race. He doesn't win often but his recent races have been better as he could run on late for a share.

This is one of those races where you can make a case for any horse to win. Based on the class edge, I'm giving the nod to 7-APOLLO U ANYWHERE as she comes out of a pair of tough starter races into this spot. She has speed and may be the fastest to the front. Santiago fits her well and returns in the saddle. Let's see if she can clear and wire this field. The other pace threat is 5-SNOOTY as she comes off a game second in her last. She chased the entire way and was given a hung comment. I'm not sure that she necessarily hung as it may have been that the winner just ran on. Look for her to contend as well as she faces a bit easier. 6-FANCY EMPRESS may be a sleeper at a price as she figures to sit back early and close well in the lane. She turns back in distance but her past success over the track makes her an interesting runner.

There's a good amount of speed in here which figures to benefit 1-MODAZZLE as he comes in from Gulfstream. He has a good work since the March 10 start and the distance suits for sure. The inside draw may be beneficial as well as he should be able to sit off the leaders and possibly make a rail bid in the lane. 6-HURTS SO BAD will also likely come running late. He just missed two back but appears to need a fast track as he didn't take to the mud in his last. He doesn't like to win but may be a good one to look to underneath in the gimmicks. 2-VALIANTLY DISCREET has speed along the inside as he has battled in his last couple. I was a bit surprised he didn't hold on in either though as speed was good both days yet he got caught late. Expect him on the gas early in here but he may have some company.

A good bunch here but not a ton along the lines of early pace. As long as Lavender Earl isn't sent hard for the lead, I expect 2-DREAM KEEPER to be upfront early and hopefully not has to work as hard as he did last out. He battled into the lane before giving way while still holding on for second. If he can catch a breather early in this spot then he may be able to wire this field. 4-PROTONIC POWER is one we saw on the grass last fall, running in the Hawthorne Derby before winning a turf allowance. His races on the poly at Turfway were strong but he is going to need some pace to close into. 5-BANDIT SWANSON is the second Hernandez runner in here but he is also in with a big shot. He finished only a length behind Dream Keeper last out and with some tactical speed he should be able to rate a bit closer early on.

A chance for some prices in the finale as the added 16th could benefit 5-MAIDEN ROCK. She closed well late in her first start of the meet and has been better since adding blinkers two starts back. With some pace in here to keep things honest upfront, let's see if she can run by them all late. 6-QUEEN IN THE NORTH comes in off the claim as she shortens up today. Her maiden score two back was a good effort as she's another that is likely to sit back early and run on in the stretch. 9-FROST WARRIOR will likely show more early speed as she has run well in her last couple. The distance could be an issue for her but it is worth giving her a chance as she has been an improving racehorse.

5-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE probably SHOULD win this but there’s no guarantee that he will. He’s been primarily a turf runner, seven of his eight wins came on grass, but this 10-year-old has had some decent dirt efforts including a third place finish the last, and only, time he ran at this level. 2-NOT VFERY GENTLE ran well to finish second in last while making his first start of the meet. He also finished second in his final race of 2022. Should be better prepared in his second race of the year. Might be able to beat top choice. The track seemed to be playing a bit more fairly yesterday but speed could still be the deciding factor. 6-COSMIC TREASURE does look like the best of the speed. His last three races were in the mud, he has three wins in six off-track races, and we just might get enough rain to help him out.

5-CALICO JOE has had a couple breaks in training one his way back to the races but his recent drills have been good. He hasn’t raced since July but his barn knows how to bring them back ready. Like that he is a waiver claim suggesting the barn doesn’t want to lose him. 7-STAN THE CAMERMAN fought hard for the lead early in last and built up a daylight lead but came up just a neck shy at the finish. He looks like he could be the best of the speed in this race but not sure the extra furlong will suit him since he tends to run out of gas. 4-SUPER CITRO battled “Stan” in last. He faded far more than his opponent but that was also the first race of his career. Could show a little more staying power in this one.

2-TEE BURNS isn’t an overwhelming choice but he has been a consistent competitor throughout his career. He’s as quick as any in here and he is able to maintain that speed throughout. 3-SNOWMOBILE has had six races. Four of them were terrible. He won the other two. His two wins came on off tracks. The other race surfaces were dry. Connections must be praying for rain. 6-RACARINO won his last two but those victories were 11 months apart. So, we know he can run well off layoffs so the six weeks between this race and his last shouldn’t bother him at all.

Could this be the day? 6-DASH TO THE CASH has had some many good races that it’s hard to explain why he’s still a maiden. But maybe this will be the day that all ends. He should relish the slightly longer distance though I think six and a half would be even better for him. There should be enough speed to set up for this fast finisher. Can fly by. 4-A P BLAZING GREEN set the early pace in his start of the meet and is likely to do so again. He ran out of gas late in that race but it was his first start in seven months. This race is longer but he should be fitter. 7-SILVER CHILLER is eligible to improve. He raced evenly in his career debut and managed to split the field. Experience helps. Could show more this time.

8-HEAVENLY TRIP could surprise. His recent races at Turfway weren’t much but he was far better when racing on dirt. He was claimed from last and he returns to a dirt track. He owns good speed and races for sharp connections. Might try to wire them. 1-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER hasn’t had a lot of luck in sprints but he displayed good speed in his last two routes before tiring late. The turn back in distance should leave him with plenty left for the stretch drive. 2-HATCHET CREEK just missed in a multiple-horse photo. He does own good speed but he’s just as capable when coming off the pace.

7-APOLLO U ANYWHERE could be the quickest of these. She tired badly in the mud in last but she was facing starter allowance company. She did wire the fields that last two times she ran for a nickel. Could carry her speed all the way with the drop in class. 5-SNOOTY did everything but win in last. She chased front runner First Squadron throughout in last, seldom more than a half length back, but had to settle for second…a half length back. She’ll could be chasing another speedy runner in this spot and might get the same kind of trip. Not really sure what to do with 8-NO NANNETTE NO. She has raced almost entirely on synthetic tracks, other than a terrible dirt race to start her career. She doesn’t even have dirt drills to show if she can handle this track. On the other hand, she’ll be racing for this sharp barn for the first time and she’s dropping in class.

2-VALIANTLY DISCREET does tend to tire late but once again he appears to be the best speed in the race though he could face early pressure from Russian Alphabet, a runner that had just broken his maiden in low-level maidens. “Discreet” does tend to tire late but this is his third race of the meet and he should be at the top of his game. 1-MODAZZLE is hard to gauge. All his races have been on Gulfstream’s synthetic track. He ran well enough in many of those starts but until he does it, you don’t know how he’ll fare on dirt. 4-VERRAZANOINTHESKY has to be considered. This versatile runner showed little in his first race of the meet but he did have traffic trouble. Deserves another chance.

2-DREAM KEEPER has been plagued by frequent layoffs but his barn always has him ready to race. This speedy gelding might be able to grab a fairly easy lead in this spot. He finished 10 lengths back in his first start of the meet after leading much of the way but that was still good enough for second place. With a recent race behind him, he might be ready to take it all the way. 5-BANDIT SWANSON owns decent speed but probably not enough to tackle top choice early. But he does finish well. He finished a length behind Dream Keeper in his first start of the meet but might be able to pass that runner late, especially if that rival faces much early pressure. Like the way 1-SILVER QUARTERS has been working toward his first start of the year. He has been at his best on turf and this might only be a prep for the upcoming turf season but he is capable of finishing with a rush.

9-FROST WARRIOR, with second-place finishes in her last two starts, looks like the one to beat but only because the rest of her rivals are in poor form. She’s been trying to earn her second win for a long time and there’s certainly no guarantee that she’ll do it today. 2-QUEEN OF THE NORTH might be the one to beat. She got claimed from last and makes her local debut. Her speed figures are higher than those of her rivals but those “figs” don’t always transfer well from track-to-track and surface-to-surface, thought that is one of their main purposes. We’ll see. 7-OCEAN HONEY, another recent claim, finished second in her local debut but up the track in her last. She could bounce back in her first start for this barn.