Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a tricky race with many stepping up from maiden claiming company and others stretching out in distance. As far as class #6 ARDEN AR remains at the Special Weight level, where she has been competitive at times and the timing could suit her here as she has had the layoff lines in the past and returns in three weeks for this race. The distance change is also in play for #11 MO WANNA GO, one that has been entered twice since the February 19th race, though unsuccessful to draw in off the AE. #9 WILD ROSEY also will stretch out and overall must step up though the class could bring her up to par with others in this field. 

In terms of distance, #10 REAUX BINA has the established form around two turns and class wise with many in this race from maiden claiming could find more of a lateral move. 

#3 CHARTER OAK was taken out of his RunStyle with the SLOG on April 2nd and not asked for their best. A rider change back to Murrill is in play here and overall upside also could be overlooked off that most recent running line.

#7 GREATHEART is another returning from a subtle excuse though not quite as expected to be overlooked form the third place finish. As far as that March 19th trip, he stumbled at the start (TROUBLE_S) and was held up running on late (TACTIC_, X_FLOW, MOVE) in that result. 

#4 JAY VEE BEE had some buried Oaklawn Park form that moved him up selection wise on March 25th and ultimately the win that day. He will be tested back at the starter allowance level, though has been able to compete at this level in years past. 

Many of the runners in this field will return from the April 2nd common race including the unofficial winner, #11 CYBERTOWN. A return to that effort is a fit, though the number today projects to be shorter than it was earlier this month.

In terms of value, #3 MADMARTIGAN was favored in that common race and while his first two starts this season gave him a look, value was a concern on 4/2 doing something new with the distance change. #1 STORM STRATEGY seems logical with the consistent form this season though overall requires a top effort and the right ride, trip and pace to win. 

#8 SEEKING CHROME finished a distance 5th though the timing as he returns from the fitness and WIDE trip that day overall should have him sitting on a peak effort and looking for Pish to get that first win (at the time of this analysis) this meet. #6 WILLIE WIN is tough to assess though another that could present some upside given an EX - EXCUSE on debut (TROUBLES+) and not asked (NO_PUSH) for run chasing wide on 4/2.

#9 PEARCY ROAD has recorded some of the higher more consistent speed figures this season giving him a look in this spot with the class drop. The distance is unknown as they stretch out for the first time here though still tough to overall dismiss value is still mentioned and required. 

#1 GOLD TICKET capable of showing a move forward in this second start benefitting from the debut back on March 11th and overall seems to have more run available. 

#2 ORNATELY will return to make her belated second start, first route and local debut. She exits a productive race at the Fair Grounds back on February 18th, though has been off the two months since. Her local works are on the same dates and distance with stablemate and first time starter #4 SCARLETTA, giving her a look here as well. 

#10 FREEDOM FOR ALL also could present some upside off her debut and has the benefit of the two turn experience. 

#1 SPEED BIAS could fit with the right combination of form, speed figures and RunStyle as a Quad I Square. 

#8 GUNTOWN also holding a favorable RunStyle for today's race shape and in form off his races this season. He presents more upside than stablemate #5 PRESIDENTIAL one that has run this season and still must show more at this level to win. 

#10 TRAFALGAR will be tested on class and to hold form returning from the starter allowance win earlier this month --  already a clever, successful claim the connections will find out what they have here. 

#9 BOLZY is one of the older horses in this field and one with established, improving form this season and should hold value in this race given the run lines and finishing position as well as the connections compared to their rivals. #3 ANDY CANT also carries the established form this season with some less than ideal trips and racing luck. He could turn that around today and "can" win. 

#4 SOUTHERN SUNSET projects to be the shorter of the two McPeek runners and could even wind up favored based on recorded speed figures. His visuals still require more to win where as visuals from stablemate #10 QUALITY CHIC suggest there is still more for them to show.

#2 GO CATS made a late move with the race flow on March 11th for third a race that has turned out to be productive. 

#8 D'ORO STREET has come up short in her races to date though could catch the right group at the right time coming back to one-turn. Rival #11 FLYING BESSIE has similar numbers though overall just average efforts at the level this season to support as a contender. 

First time starter, #10 SAUCY SECRET could have intent making her debut here for the connections and steady series of works. She was entered twice last year at Churchill Downs in Special Weight company. 

Lund returns with a pair in this race with #9 KAMIKAZI BLUE returning from the 237-day layoff recording some strong works at Turf Paradise coming back this season and could be intent for this race and showing up on this circuit. 

Public could default to #10 LI'L GRAZEN here for the connections and for a runner that knows how to win races. She has the class test while also giving up recency returning to a similar level after coming up short without excuse as the favorite back on February 12th. She finished behind a pair also returning in this race with #5 PISTOL holding her form coming back today and with #13 VIOLENT POINT sitting on the AE. 

#3 CRYPTO MO wheels right back in two weeks and overall carries upside. She made a very positive physical appearance (PRERACE+) on April 8th though the trip not nearly as positive with TROUBLE that impacted her trip and outcome. 

#11 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT is also kept in the mix as she carries early speed and even upside for this second start back off the layoff and from the March 24th common race, a race run under poor WEATHER conditions with the remainder of the card cancelled after that 7th race. 

#2 MERLAZZA seems a logical type making her stakes debut where he form this season stacks up on par and with her rivals. She is proven around two-turns coming out of the PERFECT trip win back on March 25th at the Fair Grounds. 

Longshot #8 SUNSET PAYNTER caught the eye with her dominant debut win back in January at Golden Gate Fields. While she did run for the tag that day and numbers are soft coming into this race, she has run. The March 25th 4th place effort was BTL and could see a move forward from that race and second start off the layoff. 

#1 STELLAR LILY has numbers that sit right in line with #4 KLASSY BRIDGETTE, though the edge of the two as far as distance experience, something she will trade for stakes experience, though noted expected price compensation between the two. 

See STAKES SPOTLIGHT for analysis. 

As the morning line favorite (or shorter price/favorite in general) value must be considered on #4 RED ROUTE ONE as a deep closer. As an individual he fits as a contender on class, speed and form finishing in a blanket for the minors behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby (G1) three weeks ago. Rival #1 INTERLOCK EMPIRE is not as proven on class though in terms of pace, and similar RunStyle is upgraded on value of the two. 

In addition to Red Route One, Asmussen will return with #3 POWERFUL a horse that looks softer of the two, however he has shown progress this season. His effort in the Hot Springs Stakes was sneaky good and a move forward is projected off that run. He should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff, just must show his peak effort is good enough to compete with this group and win. 

#6 VICTORY FORMATION had a lot of challenges as the favorite for the Risen Star (G2) from his graded stakes debut, a new track, distance and post position/trip/pace. He was unable to overcome the outside post with the WIDE trip and given no favors with the race shape close to the faster early pace of that race. This spot looks as good as any for him to rebound and get back on track. 

The finale looks a lot like the Race 8 allowance and could be treated similar by the public landing on the Diodoro trained, #1 NINJA WARRIOR. Class is also the test for this one returning to the N1X starter allowance and coming off some favorable trips and potentially taxing (HARD) effort with the win three weeks ago. 

#7 OMAHA RED returns to a sprint and with Pedroza as positive intent coming back from the less than ideal ride/TACTIC- and overall visuals projecting an IMPROVE from April 8th. There are others in this race that are capable on their best day and should offer value. #10 RACE DRIVER being one of those off his current form, shifting back to the dirt and could be overlooked off the trainer, Delacruz a former/current (?) assistant to Tom Amoss. #3 NAVY SEAL should also rebound with the distance change back to ONE_TURN where he has form even against open company that fits on par. The Contreras pair also worth a mention where value is required on the two with #6 BRESLAU lacking an edge with a projected shorter number; #9 VULCAN must turn his form around though has a win under similar allowance conditions, race par/purse from back on January 28th.