Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR returns to make his second start of the season and with Becker dropping in class for this race. The class change along with form moves them up in this spot. As far as the races at Oaklawn Park he was overmatched against those runners and can be given an upgrade from April 6^th with the issues at the GATE and on a WIDE DUEL for that show finish.

#1 WHERE’S LUCKY is moving forward in his form cycle for the connections and off the races this season. He should be sitting on his peak effort just requires a trip with Felix back aboard to assist as well as projected honest pace with #3 GOLDEN CHELLA and #7 OPTION looking to keep the early pace honest. #5 CAPTAIN CARNEGIE is tougher to trust on the win end as he has come up short at this level and below as far as OptixGRADES (GRADES similar to #4 RIP IT RYAN underneath type) though carries some buried form to outrun his odds today, even if its for a minor share.

#6 IMPULSIVENESS fits on figures though must translate those numbers to the dirt, a surface he is unproven over and softer in the role as a shorter priced runner in this field. 

#2 D’FEVER was forced to show a different dimension from his typical front running ways following the slow start (SLOG) on March 19^th to CLOSE from off the pace. His B- OptixGRADE effort and 75 OptixFIG gives him a look back today under similar conditions. Further upside could be in play with the rider change to Mojica and for DiZeo, a barn that has started off a little cold though looking to turn things around any day now.

The rider change to Lezcano aboard #3 EASTER MUSIC could also suggest intent and improvement from April 9^th when they appeared well-intended though unable to overcome the SLOG and track profile. Easter Music fits at this level show up with a win under similar conditions here last season, September 24^th.

#6 D’YANK returns in this spot and off a weaker effort back on March 5^th and looking to get back on track and form. They will race on Lasix this afternoon and also take a class drop to the lowest level of their career. While those changes off a “poor” effort can come with some concerns though that is offset with Felix remaining aboard today for Martinez. #1 RESTORING HOPE wheeling back from an improved effort on April 9^th will require a trip form the inside, though could be a positive sign making that move forward in his current form and back numbers make him a contender – value is still key. 

#7 JUST BLAZE will look to keep up the live streak of Fair Grounds shippers going for Scherer. In terms of numbers, they fit on this level and with progressive form from those return races this year despite the runlines and finishing positions. The connections were likely looking to run back on the turf, though had to alter plans and that should also be noted with the “efforts” on the main track.

The pace scenario could be tougher for ten-year-old #8 IRISH MAJOR, one that closed nearly pulling off the March30th upset. Pace on the opposite end could benefit #9 RISKY BOY with more tactical speed though still requires that aggressive ride from the outside and a top effort (with racing luck) to win. 

This is a competitive race with many in here capable on their best day. #1 LAST MARTINI could move up in terms of trip and pace and even intent for Rosin returning off the layoff. They will race in this spot protected and with a steady series of works with Emigh named. They have been able to show tactical speed in the past and that type of run style (Quad I Square) could be the key to this race. 

Recency could be the edge and the separator for the horses that have races here this season. #5 PINEDALE projects to IMPROVE in their second start of the season and from the trip on March 30^th with the TROUBLE_S late MOVE together with their rival for show and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. With that said, price compensation is still necessary on this runner coming from off the pace especially if the track/wind profile is similar to Thursday.

#4 SCAT SHACK returns from what could be assessed as an excuse on April 6^th as they were restless in the GATE and unprepared at the start as a result. Overall, they require a top effort though have back form over this course, distance and tactical speed that has them competitive on their best day.

#2 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS will give up some recency returning here off the 236-day layoff. With that said, they look well placed at this level and race shape where they could be the controlling speed with OptixFIG in OFR for this level. Number wise #4 CADET CORPS has similar numbers, though those figures on the synth/turf and unproven whether those figures transfer to the main track.

Surface also looks to be the separator between #6 FIRST MASAMUNE given the edge on the dirt of #5 DYNABLUE (turf preferred), both horse with the edge on recency and local form. 

This race would be different on the turf, the surface intended for many in this field and ones to follow with grass racing right around the corner. #4 TAR HEEL GIRL being one of those that will make the surface switch. She also makes the circuit switch exiting the GP meet and showing run and progress in her first two starts.

The April 6^th race is a common race for statebred #1 JOYZELLA looking to bring that local experience as an edge where she returns today to again face open company; #2 CLIMB TO GLORY had a look that day though struggled with the trip/TACTIC- and from the rail. She was given a follow showing some run in spots and exiting productive races at Turfway Park – another that could be given a look on TURF.

#7 SECRET OPERATION could be under the radar in this race with intention of the Slager pair with the added ground. The route distance was the plan for her when entered on March 12^th though unable to race that day as a vet scratch and to her credit improved off the debut on March 26^th.

IL-bred stablemate #6 LIL CARRIE D has similar challenges to JOYZELLA (and #5 WICKED SKY) racing against open company. #3 HOP AWAY HOTTIE could project upside from her debut and WIDE trip returning for this second start and with the experience and distance change though so far the 3/16 race has not been a productive event. 

The pace scenario creates a puzzle for this race and something to consider for #9 LONG TALL WOMAN coming back in this spot looking to keep up winning ways. She is capable though was a vet scratch on March 26^th and has benefit from some favorable trips to consider. Her stablemate #5 IGGY BIGS will give up recency off the 126-day layoff and ultimately might require a race (and intended for turf) though on her best day sits with numbers right in line with LONG TALL WOMAN.

With Long Tall Woman a scratch on March 26^th, #8 GOOD MONGOLIA took advantage with a PERFECT trip in her own right picking up the win and could look for similar here with tactical speed especially if allowed to race on the lead uncontested.

#6 AVASARLA and #7 SEAWARD have buried form at this level and are showing improvement coming into this event from their races this season.

#3 RACEDAY ATTIRE fits on class and figures especially off the allowance win three weeks ago. She recorded a top effort that day and could be some concern with a regression off that race. 

#2 TRY TRY AGAIN does just that looking for the win and with progressive form this season should be in the right spot. They looked a little short coming off the layoff on March 9^th and stepped up with a sneaky good B- OptixGRADE/BTL effort on March 30^th with TROUBLE making a CLOSE together for place behind pacesetting winner and today’s rival #3 DARK HEDGES. 

#5 ALPINE GHOST also returns from a BTL effort at this level back on April 2^nd with the poor WEATHER conditions and showing run in a less than ideal trip as show in the Past 3 Runlines.

#5 JOURNEYIST might not have been able to show her best or run her race on April 2^nd acting up in the GATE and raced with the WIDE trip and the WEATHER conditions that made it tough to make up ground in the stretch. The same consideration can be given to #6 STORMY EMPIRE on April 2^nd with the similar “tough to make up ground in the stretch” WEATHER condition and showing run with the less than ideal (TACTIC-) run racing in TRAFFIC.

The pace for those two should be contentious with #3 FIRST KITTEN (BIAS aided win on April 2^nd) and #4 TRIP TO FREEDOM (REGRESS? From March 19^th) keeping each other honest on the lead today and even #8 RAINY MOUNTAIN capable of showing tactical speed. Under the radar, #1 MAGNA MASSA also could show more early speed. She has shown a pattern of SLOG in her most recent starts, though also run in spots including a BTL effort in her own right on April 2^nd. 

Many of the runners in the finale return from a common Special Weight race here back on March 26^th. That includes place finisher #8 RUSSIAN HAMMER one that was able to CLOSE late from well off the pace, a familiar RunStyle for her especially with a pattern of SLOG going back to his debut - the closing RunStyle with gate issues should be assessed as far as value with that projected trip and following the track profile throughout the card.

The March 26th pace was honest and could upgrade #2 LUCKY AIN’T ENOUGH as one of the pacesetters especially as he was coming off the 128-day layoff that day. #5 MERLOTTI also could project to move forward as his excuses began in the GATE very fractious and briefly had his legs over the gate. The GATE issues and poor start also in play for older, five-year-old #6 TENPAK making their belated second start off a 593-day layoff, some concerns all around with those combination of factors.

#7 SARAH’S BOY BLUE will make a belated second start here. Going back to last August 22^nd at Prairie Meadows he broke SLOG and showed some run in spots even visuals to suggest they are capable of more early speed. The layoff return is also in play for #9 BACK TO SELLING though one that has a look at this level with some early speed, figures in OFR and class at stacks up as more of a lateral move from the statebred Special Weight races last year at Canterbury.