Handicapper Tips & Picks

3 Quick Sand 9 Diamond Gem AA 7 RB Texas Hold EM

Unlike stablemate Arabian Lion (R4 - Sir Barton Stakes) with a potential pace advantage on the front end, #1 HAVNAMELTDOWN as the expected favorite should be contested from the jump with his early speed and others in the field as quick to keep the pace contentious and honest. #5 SUPER CHOW has legit early speed and aggressive run style and rider with Paco Lopez taking over. The presence of Super Chow in this race as one that has the ability to go gate-to-wire if allowed puts added pressure (added pace pressure also coming early from #4 BRISTOL CHANNEL and #6 PROVE RIGHT) on Havnameltdown being his primary threat and challenge as far as pace/trip.

#2 RYVIT is not a confirmed front runner as he was able to rate in the April 14th allowance win. Form cycle is the main concern coming back today on the quick 21-day turnaround from a taxing effort to win the Bachelor Stakes.

The quick turnaround is also in play for #3 FROSTED DEPARTURE coming back from the Pat Day Mile (G2) just two weeks ago. The cutback to one turn upgraded him for that event and again has the preferred one-turn today. Perhaps that is a positive sign with the timing (and rider assignment with Prat aboard) wheeling back for this race where his top effort stacks up as a contender in here. 

The cutback in distance is also in play and the right move for #7 PRINCE OF JERICHO one that appears to have positive intent by the connections for this race with that distance change and fitness in the second start of the form cycle. Overall he is lighter number/class wise (price compensation required) based on his races to date and does require a top effort and a career best to win in against today's group. As a positive, he should be in the right spot to give that honest account and out to prove if that race is good enough on the day. 

This competitive group has the entire field looking for their first graded stakes (NA) win. Graded stakes form upgrades #4 EMINENT VICTOR, keying off a B OptixGRADE landing on the wrong side of the Lake George (G3) photo last summer at Saratoga and back class from the 2021 Natalma (G1) show finish; and #5 VERGARA another that has been knocking on the door running "winning" type efforts in both the Ontario Colleen (G3) and Sands Points (G2). These two will give up some recency to others in the field though also have shown they can run well off this type of layoff at the level.  

#2 SOPRAN BASILEA is the "wild card" in this race making her local debut. This spot could be a prep noting the longer distance events run overseas as well as a scratch from the 12f Bewitch (G3) last month (4/28) at Keeneland as well as the Dahlia (4/29) at Laurel, those races coming off the turf. 

Motion came to play this weekend filling up the graded stakes races on the turf and with another three in this event, the Dinner Party (G3), all with a chance to upset morning line favorite, #1 ATONE.

#4 HURRICANE DREAM was given a look in the Pegasus Turf (G1) and trip/outcome was not ideal though much better than the run line and finishing position credits on paper. He validated that effort dominating the allowance group last month at Keeneland and with the confidence should be maintain stakes form today. 

#2 SPEAKING SCOUT has found his form as of late and has been tested in graded stakes company. He found himself in a blanket for the minors behind Atone in the Pegasus Turf (G1), a first start of the season and against older horses. He has the benefit of fitness to present a move forward here in this second start of form cycle and should find himself more forwardly placed in this event than last month in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) with Saez back aboard. 

#3 EASTER is the longest of the set and number wise softer than others in the field playing a role in that morning line assignment. The change is distance from the longer distance races seemed to benefit him last month in New York and will be tested with the class rise back up to graded stakes company. 

#6 GUNNING experimented with the two turn route distance in the stakes race last month at Oaklawn Park and to her credit still ran a credible race given the distance, contact at the start and wide trip to hold place. She returns to the sprint distance and with strong form/class/figures this season at Oaklawn Park and since her beginnings as a sophomore she stacks up as a contender in this race. 

This is a competitive race and as individuals the morning line favorites including #1 NOTHING BETTER and #3 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS are logical. In terms of the race as a whole, there is plenty of early pace signed in which includes that pair and could create a scenario for the runners from off the pace, #5 SMOKIN' JAY, #9 DETERMINED KINGDOM, #11 NOBLE EMOTION and #13 BEER CAN MAN to get the trip. #10 COPPOLA could also work a trip, though should weigh the number on the board with his current form cycle coming off a top with the 9-1 CD allowance win just 18-days ago and recording a new top after a progressive line leading up to that race and could be peaked in his form cycle. 

The two morning line favorites bookend the field with #8 STRAIGHT NO CHASER as the projected controlling early speed with #7 NAKATOMI looking to make his late run and pick up horses from off the pace. Both fit at this level and in terms of their form, class, speed and run style for this race though will not offer much in terms of value/creativity.

Looking outside the box, #2 PREVALENCE should move up back on the turf and one turn distance. He had a subtle trip back in the Mr. Prospector and projected to improve, which he did number wise in the Fred Hooper (G3) though not enough to compete for the top spot that day. #4 AL LOVES JOSIE has yet to be class tested and with that to prove here though is coming back off an excuse last month and number wise his allowance form this season fits on par - and should offer value over local rival, #10 WONDRWHERECRAIGIS one that will be forced from the outside and likely into a duel with Straight No Chaser. 

#9 NAGIRROC returns from solid event, the Transylvania (G3) last month at Keeneland and turning in an honest effort. That race was his first start of the season and off the 98-day layoff and should benefit from the conditioning and fitness. He will retain Prat, while picking up first time blinkers and a return to run on Lasix here as well adding to intent.

Rival #8 WONDERFUL JUSTICE also returns from the Transylvania (G3) to run in this race and did not show much in that event and without excuse. Overall number wise is softer than others in the field and likely to be a shorter number on the board (no value) given the connections. 

#5 CIRCLING THE DRAIN will make his turf debut, though to this point is tough to knock and has been been able to run competitive races and show versatility which gives him a look in here at a complementary price. 

See video analysis https://www.youtube.com/live/tTpiMlfoJJE?feature=share

P 10 Legion Seelster 4 The Greek Freak 2 Rockin N Talkin

P 4 Respect Our Flag 2 Flying Art 7 Real Willey

P 5 Codename Cigar Box 1 Nautical Hanover 3 Ario Hanover

T 8 Stonebridge Bravo 9 Climb The Pole 10 Hp Extra Ice

P 7 Cheesy Smile 2 Illusion Seelster 4 Big Big Plans

T 3 Osceola 6 Tuscan Prince 10 Derbyshire

P 7 Write Me A Rose 2 Moment Is Here 8 Whatchulookin At

P 9 Redwood Hanover 8 Partyintheshadows 7 Huntinthelastdollar

P 7 Wheels On Fire 8 Momas Son Byrne 1 Saulsbrook Victor

P 9 Sintra 8 Sometime Somewhere 7 Rockme Rollme