Handicapper Tips & Picks

The public will likely lean into #1 SIERRA HOTEL based on the local record, though looking at OptixPLOT, he does not hold any strong edge in this race to justify a short price and could be vulnerable in that role. 

#7 DYNABLUE has been waiting and waiting to get back to the TURF? and patience could pay off for Poulos and those following this runner getting back to his preferred surface. 

Longshot #2 BOURBON DELIGHT will make his TURF debut in this event, though as an individual he has presented as a runner that should take to, and potentially move up on the grass, something he will require though is in form and with some confidence coming off a win and with Giles back aboard. 

#6 MALIGATOR can be upgraded on the Plot and while he will given up recency from the 240-day layoff, the price compensation should be there. Keying off his Plot position, he has a similar location and shape to #5 IOYA AGAIN, one that is local and also seems to suggest intent giving the local return last month, though one that should be more "obvious" of the two. 

Pace takes center stage in the handicapping with #3 BEHAVING MYSELF as the potential controlling and "lone speed" in this group. He has shown a lack of finish (Large Circle) where some separation is required for him to hold late. Looking at the Plot, #4 NOT VERY GENTLE is not a true front runner though has enough tactical speed to stalk Behavin Myself and with finishing ability (Square) could be in the right time and place turning for home. 

That first run will be key with #5 PISTOL BOX in the race, a deeper closer (Large Quad IV Square) that will be running on late.

Pompell will send out a pair in this race including morning line favorite, #6 POSITIONDUMONI. Throughout the season this runner has held form and figures, numbers that stack up on par. Her big effort on April 6th came in the second off the layoff and this barn has been effective with that angle. That is noted for #5 BUGSY'S WAVE RIDER as they shift up and make that "second off" move coming in from the layoff return at Fan Duel just 12-days ago. 

The massive class drop makes #7 ALEBRIJE a major player against this field, though the big trip coming off a decent place finish in for $25k last month brings some reservations along.

Looking for alternatives among the others that are more evenly matched outside Alebrije: #5 BORN AGAIN GEORGE was given a look just over a week ago (5/11) off some buried form and figures that stack up at the level. Trainer Pat Clay, wheels right back after jockey Bendezu lost their balance and prematurely ejected with this horse continuing to run the race and "win" riderless. Giles taking over today and with the timing some intent could be suggested and worth consideration at the likely longer odds.

#6 MUD ISLAND finds more subtle, reasonable class relief returning to Hawthorne and with a progressive form cycle pattern into this event for Martinez. #8 DEVIL'S RULE has shown some subtle form this season and could land in the right trip. His stablemate #1 CHRISTMAS PRESENT finds class relief to run here though trip is noted with his RunStyle and requires the right ride from off the pace. 

#4 KING TITO could also find himself showing more early speed (contention with Alebrije) returning from a slight 29-day freshening. He won under similar conditions here on March 19th, though worked HARD on the lead for that win and saw regression set in the next two starts. 

This is a competitive race and making a case for #8 GREY STREAK one that could be overlooked in this field. He has back class and that class includes today's course going back to 2021 and the place finish in the Hawthorne Derby. He was claimed last November and without the opportunity to run on the grass for Rodriguez, he was kept protected (racing as a longshot) this year at Turfway Park. He has worked steadily for this spot and appears race ready and with intent as Centeno has the call.  

As noted on the May 4th prerace show, #5 STAN THE CAMERAMAN has shown speed though started to decline numbers and form where some concern as far as form cycle comes into play should he come up short on the day. On his best day he has the ability and early speed to have a pace advantage and the new connections will look to utilize that tactic and hop it is enough to hold. 

#8 DEVLISH HOUR finds class relief to run here and on this circuit. He looked short (PREP) and slightly overmatched on April 7th at Oaklawn Park with the rider looking to position closer to the lead, though was unable to get to that spot with the faster horses in the race. The same upgrade applies to #11 PROCHARGER one that despite the recent run lines and finishing positions has shown progress and speed figure improvement in those races with another move forward projected - a move forward on a horse that already fits right in with today's group.

Longshot, #6 NAGY AND DA BEARS, should be sitting on his peak effort today. Whether that effort is good enough to win remains to be seen though should him competitive here and one that at the projected odds is deserving of a mention. 

#5 OEUVRE stands out on class even with the surface switch here. The connections are looking to regain some confidence exiting the higher level stakes races out in Kentucky. Oeuvre ran her race and held her form/OptixFIG in both of those stakes races, though was exposed against those rivals. Her main rival, #3 PURR SEA is quality in her own right and has legit early speed and statebred stakes wins as a juvenile. She has been able to figure fresh, the debut win and finishing in a photo off the layoff last may at HS Indy, is noted as she gives up recency off the 211-day layoff here. 

The shift to TURF? upgrades #7 THREE ROUGH SHODS as Robertson had him entered looking for turf earlier this year at the Fair Grounds and unable to get into or the surface for those races and looks the part visually of a grass runner. The debut experience here just 17-days ago suggests intent and to present upside after a rough start (TROUBLES+) and the race shape with open length pacesetting winner, Winnemac Avenue. 

DiVito trained Winnemac Avenue and returns with #6 ALL CHOCKED UP off the extended 548-day layoff with a first start on this circuit. The change in locale and surface/distance could suit this runner, though does give up considerable recency. The shift to TURF could also see improvement for #5 MINING CAMP, though in terms of class (DROP?) will again be tested against Special Weight. 

#9 OUT OF DEDUCTIONS as a second time start coming out of a mildly productive debut at Tampa last month is preferred over #10 MO TIME AT ALL, one that looks to move up shifting back to the turf, though as a six-year-old gelding does not appear to hold much upside. 

A mix of turf runners and some possibly hoping for dirt. 4-BAKENEKO will be good on either surface. He has tactical speed and should get a good trip from the second flight. 1-SIERRA HOTEL is as honest as they come. He has found the board in 20 of 32 grass starts and looks to be running on late. 5-IOYA AGAIN is also a legit turf runner. He tends to close from a bit further back but should welcome the return to the grass.

No speed in here so have to think 3-BEHAVIN MYSELF is the one to set slow fractions and run on late. Maybe 4-NOT VERY GENTLE rates closer early with the lack of pace. He chased around two turns two back and ran on late. He could get a good trip off a slow pace. 5-PISTOL BOX needs speed to close into. He likes this track, tries hard, and gets class relief into today's race.

Hard to find value here but maybe 4-BLAZE BEAUTY sneaks off at a bit of a price. If the pace is contested, she should be able to sit back early and run on in the lane. 6-POSITIONDUMONI has run well in her last couple and figures to take a lot of action in this spot. She figures to get sent away early and may be quick enough to clear. 3-FREEDOM ATTACK chased last out and ran on in the lane. She faces open company today but this is the right spot with three other state-bred horses in here.

Something just seems off here but if right, 7-ALEBRIJE should easily handle this field. He just ran well for $25k and takes a plunge. It was enough to scare me off as I went to 2-D'FEVER on top. He has tactical speed, picks up Mojica again and should get a perfect tracking trip. 6-MUD ISLAND has run well here in the past. He has faced tougher in three starts on the year and the class drop may make all the difference.

Really good bunch on the grass here. So much back class with 7-DOWAGIAC CHIEF as he makes his second start of the year. He has speed and this race doesn't have a ton of pace. 4-PROTONIC POWER was a good winner on the grass here last fall. He ran well on the main track last out and should transfer that form to turf. 5-CAPTIVATING MOON is another with past turf form. He will need pace to chase and should be closing quickly late.

Hopeful for a price with 8-DEVLISH HOUR as he comes in from the tough Oaklawn meet. He should rate closer early and may get a perfect stalking trip. 7-SANTINO'S FANTASY showed improved speed in his last, battling to the wire. Figure he sits back slightly here as there's a couple of others with more speed. 5-STAN THE CAMERAMAN is one of those with speed. He battled last out before giving way late as the favorite.

I think there are six horses in here that can win. Gave the nod to 10-MO TIME AT ALL ah this six year old got a late start this his career but has posted a couple of good turf efforts. He has some tactical speed and should be looking to clear from the outside. 7-THREE ROUGH SHODS is bred well to handle the grass as he may have needed his last. He could be a completely different racehorse on turf. 9-OUT OF DEDUCTIONS ran a solid race at Tampa in his debut. He has since worked well here at Hawthorne and could be sitting on a big race.

Most of the runners in here are in lackluster form but, for the most part, that form has been in dirt races. That doesn’t reflect their turf form so expect a lot of improvement from many of these runners. I’m thinking that 7-DYNABLUE can improve the most. He has always faced better runners on the lawn and if you throw out his main-track races, and he obviously doesn’t like the main track, his lifetime record isn’t that bad. 1-SIERRA HOTEL didn’t show a thing in an optional in last in New Orleans but he figures to display far better speed with the stretch in distance. 5-IOYA AGAIN has earned far more on turf than any of his rivals. He won the last time he ran on turf, a November race here at this level. He was claimed from last. We’ll see what kind of success he has for his new connections. 12-FLY NIGHTLY, like Sierra Hotel and Ioya Again, has six turf wins to his credit. Figures prominently if he gets into this race.

Don’t know if anyone in here holds a real speed advantage but 3-BEHAVIN MYSELF does seem most likely to get to the early lead. Like many in here he had to chase the speedy Troy Ounce in last. But in this race they are likely going to be chasing him. 5-PISTOL BOX might be the most “likely” to win this race. However, like so many of his rivals, he’s going to be coming from far off the pace. On the other hand, he has been meeting far tougher and class can tell. 1-GAGOOTS runs well with Tavares in the irons and Javier is back aboard today. They won last together and finished second the previous time Tavares was in the irons.

6-POSITIONDUMANI seems most likely. She finished second in her last two starts after finishing up the track in the first four races of her career. She’ll never be considered quick but she just might be the quickest of these. 2-PACIFIC VIEW lost her first race by about 30 lengths but improved dramatically in her first race here. She was dropped into maiden claimers for that start and flew late to miss by a rapidly-diminishing neck. Moves back into “specials” for this but if she runs the way she did in her last start, which was her first race of the year, there might be no stopping her. 3-FREEDOM ATTACK faces open company for the first time. However, she does own pretty good early speed when she gets out of the gate in good order. Might wind up fighting for the lead.

2-D’FEVER can win right back. He scored the last two times he took on rivals similar to these. Might be able to do it again. 7-ALEBRIJE should win by the length of the stretch…if he’s ok. Why the big drop after finishing second for $25k? I’d rather look stupid for picking against him but rather than have you throw your money away. Extreme caution is urged. 6-MUD ISLAND is another dropper but his drop makes sense. He hasn’t been competitive against better but he could make full use of his good speed at this level.

This race is totally up for grabs. There appears to be three top contenders but all are in poor form. Captivating Moon seems like the class but he hasn’t won in over two years. Dowagiac Chief ships in for tough connections but he’s had 10 races with three wins and when he doesn’t win, he doesn’t get close. Ian Glass has seven turf victories but none for two years. But someone will win this and it almost has to come from the aforementioned runners. I’m guessing it will be 5-CAPTIVATING MOON. The distance of this race could be too short for his best effort but think there will be plenty of pace to set up for his late run. 7-DOWAGIAC CHIEF isn’t the only speed but he could be best prepared to carry his speed all the way. 1-IAN GLASS is likely first from the gate but he has been tiring late in sprints. On the other hand, he might get such an easy early lead that he’ll have plenty left for the finish.

Don’t really like anyone, other than the obvious, in this race but going to take a chance with 8-DEVLISH HOUR. He has been finishing up the track at Oaklawn while meeting Arkansas breds but he had a couple strong efforts at Canterbury last year. 7-SANTINO’S FANTASY and 5-STAN THE CAMERAMAN dueled for the lead in last which cost them both the race. Unfortunately, the pace of this race seems to set up the same way. That could lead to the same outcome.

The race is for second place. 5-OEUVRE is likely worth the short price. She’s been a standout in so many of her races but especially at Hawthorne where she has been victorious in six of her eight starts, losing only a couple stakes races here when she was two. She recently lost a couple turf sprints in Kentucky but she’ll find the company much easier in this spot. 3-PURR SEA is probably the better of the two Boyce-trained runners in here. She did beat Oeuvre in that rival’s only two local losses. But she couldn’t hold off that filly in her last start and she is making her first start of the year. 9-RAINY MOUNTAIN hasn’t had the success of many in here but she is adding blinkers and the probable blistering pace of this race could benefit her strong closing move.

Tough race to figure. Only three members of this field ever ran on turf but most do have some turf influence in their pedigrees. Landed on 9-OUT OF DEDUCTIONS. He split the field in his lone race, a turf contest at Tampa. He’s had three good local drills since that start, including a recent bullet. 10-MO TIME AT ALL had a couple turf races at Fair Grounds and, although he didn’t get close, he ran respectably. Might be meeting a bit easier here and turf experience could help. 4-AQUACAT owns good speed and he led much of the way in his last turf race but got nailed late. Meets tougher here but, again, experience can count. 8-ICE VORTEX ran evenly in his starts at Gulfstream on their synthetic track but his trainer here has been getting the most out of his runners. This team won with Modifier the other day, another runner by sire Gio Ponti. Don’t overlook. 7-THREE ROUGH SHODS didn’t show a thing in his debut race here but his pedigree suggests we could see a whole different runner with the move to the lawn.