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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat May 27th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 3:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
6 Benedict Canyon - 3/1

#6 BENEDICT CANYON presented as turf runner and moved up with the surface and barn switch. She fits today's conditions and intent coming back today from the 56-day freshening. 

#4 SECRETS TOLD fits this condition though trip could be a hurdle with the "Sun" and primary rival #3 PRINCESS ADALEIGH in the field expected to keep the early pace honest. 


Santa Anita Race 2

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 SHE'S MY NIECE ran green and possibly better visually to the fourth place result in her debut two weeks ago. She looked to need and should benefit from the start and has that edge on experience over others.

No work visuals were available for her stablemate #5 THEY ARE FOR SAME or #2 SMOOVE OVER and #6 BECKY'S DREAM, though did catch #1 IFUAINTFIRSTURLAST one that could struggle with the rail draw as she has shown to break slow from the gate in the morning. #3 KYTHIRA was second best to her stablemate though was given credit for the same 47.4 half mile time. She broke a half step slow before getting sent forward and lacked stick late. 

Santa Anita Race 3

Post Time 4:08 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
4 Movinglikeawinner - 3/1

#4 MOVINGLIKEAWINNER finds both class relief and the shift back to TURF as positives to move up in this second start off the layoff. Trip/pace could also work in her favor with the complexion of this compact field. 

Santa Anita Race 4

Post Time 4:41 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
1 Kanderel - 5/2 2 Heir [FR] - 5/1

#1 KANDEREL had trouble at this level and shorter distance back on March 31st still recording a solid effort for the level. The added ground for this race and intent in the first start back off the layoff give preference over #6 CHAOS THEORY, one that is all around logical back at the $25k claiming level.

#2 HEIR ships in for Belvoir and upgraded as the barn has sent out some live runners as of late and should be flying under the radar. 

Santa Anita Race 5

Post Time 5:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The recent layoff lines and class change could be the knock on #7 LUNATIC as the favorite though also the one to catch with her early speed in today's shorter 5.5f distance. 

#2 TROPICANA GIRL was able to benefit from a PERFECT trip last time she was on this circuit and similar claiming level and could fall into a similar trip/result. 

#1 BIG BELL has shown run this season and consistency number wise that fits at this level. Trip/pace is the main hurdle for her as she tends to do her better running from well off the pace and needs a lot of racing luck at the shorter sprint distance for that trip to win. 

Santa Anita Race 5

Post Time 5:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The recent layoff lines and class change could be the knock on #7 LUNATIC as the favorite though also the one to catch with her early speed in today's shorter 5.5f distance. 

#2 TROPICANA GIRL was able to benefit from a PERFECT trip last time she was on this circuit and similar claiming level and could fall into a similar trip/result. 

#1 BIG BELL has shown run this season and consistency number wise that fits at this level. Trip/pace is the main hurdle for her as she tends to do her better running from well off the pace and needs a lot of racing luck at the shorter sprint distance for that trip to win. 

Santa Anita Race 6

Post Time 5:44 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
4 Finneus - 4/1 9 Divine Armor - 5/1

#4 FINNEUS ran a solid race at the level back on March 17th that gives him consideration back under similar conditions. While he had that going for him leading into the April 9th event, the trip created an excuse and was unable to show his best. That buried form gives him a look and upgrade over others in this field, including #7 KATONAH, that have not quite shown enough at the level without excuse. #9 DIVINE ARMOR is one of those that must show more, at the same time he should offer value in this field to compensate and kept in the mix. 

Santa Anita Race 7

Post Time 6:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
7 Burnin Turf - 5/2 1 Indian Peak - 5/1 6 Prince Lancelot [GB] - 8/1

The #7 BURNIN TURF connections probably had this race marked on the calendar coming back this year. He ran a solid third in this event last year and comes back with form and the right running style for today's race shape. Today's extended sprint distance suits him and could be overlooked (and fit) coming off the wide trip on April 23rd. 

Class will be the big test here for #3 FAST BUCK and might not have the price compensation required to offset given the morning line. Morning line favorite, #5 WHATMAKESSAMMYRUN is logical and class tested though trip is his main hurdle as one that often comes with a late run from off the pace. 

#1 INDIAN PEAK requires price compensation as another that has come up short at the graded stakes level. There does appear intent today for Miller (barn could have live runners on the card) as they make their third start of the cycle and making a positive rider change back to Hernandez off the trip in the Siren Lure last month. 

#6 PRINCE LANCELOT is the "wild card" making his local debut in this spot. The barn is capable with these type of runners and has sent out live runners as of late. 

Santa Anita Race 8

Post Time 6:44 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

See Club Hawthorne video analysis for the G2 Triple Bend Stakes

https://www.youtube.com/live/cKS2RUV2pKs?feature=share

Santa Anita Race 9

Post Time 7:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
3 Crescendo Molto - 15/1 4 Lt's Choice - 5/1 8 Billy Gallivan - 20/1

This race is all about the second time starters: #3 CRESCENDO MOLTO looks to benefit from the experience, added ground coming back for this race. Her visuals and GALLOP+ on debut suggest the race and added ground (STRETCH) should set her up for improvement here. #4 LT'S CHOICE will give up recency though is another that required more ground STRETCH from her debut last year and finds that here as well as the class drop to suggest intent she is ready off the layoff. #8 BILLY GALLIVAN also looks to upgrade with added ground and the key post position change moving to the outside. Physically she is a bigger, longer type and never looked comfortable chasing inside in the April 28th debut.