Handicapper Tips & Picks

Perez has the field covered top to bottom in terms of the pair with their complementary RunStyle. #5 SOVIET STANDARD has shown legit early speed and from the Plot visuals should have the edge (Quad I Square furthest Left) over Circle rivals, #2 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN and #6 CHAD’S FLASH looking to keep the pace honest. Should that “Fire” Contention come into play, #3 TEA WITH LEMON will look to take advantage as the stronger (Large Quad IV Square) closer in this race as they cut back to one turn. 

#1 HURTS SO BAD could also find themselves on the right trip and returning to a top effort from the 42-day freshening to reset the form cycle. Meraz looked to have this horse in peak condition back on March 5^th coming off a similar 48-day freshening and tough to knock the effort finishing in a photo at the wire. As far as trip, they show up favorable as a Quad I Square and ideally looking for that first run on Soviet Standard and the jump on Tea With Lemon. 

This is a tricky race and appears open to many in this group with the lower OFR for today’s condition. Many in this field have  run this season and come up short both on the win end and in terms of OptixGRADES below the B OptixGRADE, considered a winning effort for the level. Looking at the Plot, the pace should be contentious though the race strength also shown on that weaker side with the field below the ParLine. 

That could present a hidden edge to #3 LUKE ATTACK (Standard Square) over Circles #4 A P BLAZING GREEN and #6 MAN ON ATTACK. #5 SILVER CHILLER improved on May 7^th off some subtle trips in his first two starts this season, though still has shown continued GATE issues.

#2 J J’S SOLUTION as the Large Quad IV Square will be running on late and a case to be made he is sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff along with the subtle changes as Mojica jumps aboard and they return to the statebred level. With that said, he has had many chances, is a closer and has come up short where price compensation is required.

#1 NAGY AND DA BEARS might be wheeled right back for this race as trainer Witthauer also has A P BLAZING GREEN in the field. As noted the OFR being lower today and is even lower than the May 21^st race last week when in for the lower maiden claiming tag. The placement that day moved Nagy and Da Bears up on the drop and with intent though as shown in the OptixNOTES, they were eliminated at the start and the rider that day Lezcano, kept this horse X_WIDE and not asked (NO_PUSH) for run. 

First time starter, #7 MARE’S GUNNER was entered to debut back on March 11^th at Oaklawn Park in Special Weight company at a mile though a vet scratch unable to make the race. Without question this is an easier spot though as far as conditioning there is a gap in the published works overall and most recently from April 28^th until May 21^st that should be considered.

#6 ONE WAY HOME could get the trip today as a Quad I Square and chasing behind #2 CHOPPER, the projected “lone” speed, though one that has shown NO_FINISH and should be similar in today’s field represented by the Large Circle. 

From the Plot visuals, there is a lot of separation to the others in the field and for the Quad IV Squares, #1 DEVIL’S RULE, #4 IDEA MAN and #7 EASTER MUSIC. Coming off the layoff, #3 IMPERIAL MOMENT could have conditioning concerns, though at the same time has shown competitive races at this level and for Childers in the past that keep them in the mix at a price.

#4 DRAGON DREW looks pointed to this spot returning to the TURF and back for a seconds tart this season. When he showed up here on April 2^nd, he looked short (PREP) and the lack of intent on the day was compounded by the WEATHER conditions and SLOG start that left him against the profile when making the late CLOSE. 

#5 WINGING WAYS has had just limited chances to run on the turf, though in those races showed he can handle the surface and transfer his current form. That is all that is needed to compete today as he has form, early speed and in the right portion of his form cycle coming back to the claiming level and reset from the win and peak effort recorded on April 9th.

Watkins reclaimed #1 FOGGY KITTEN, a mare he has trained throughout her career. Felix has also been aboard for much of their success and this year in the money finishes which has, along with the lower level claiming wins last year, kept her eligible for this condition. She is most effective when on the lead and “LONE” a trip she could find here from the rail and given the presence of her OptixPLOT position. 

That Position is combined with a Circle, indicating a lack of finish and scenario for #3 AUNT STELLA and #8 MI CRESCENDO will look to capitalize on based on the position (Quad I/II) as Squares – indicating finishing ability. They should have first run on #4 ARCH FLYER one that will be running on late (Quad IV) and with a strong closing kick (Square) should be along for a share. The Plot suggests she fits this race something that is tougher to see from the recent running lines and finishing positions alone. 

Clearly the conditions from Race 2 and Race 6 are quite different, but also serve as a good example to show class where the horses in Race 2 sit below (suggest weakness) the ParLine the horses here in Race 6 sit above the ParLine to suggest a stronger event for the level. Trainer Scott Becker will show up with a pair in this race. #5 FAST JACK could require a race returning from the layoff, though has form here at Hawthorne and upside as still a lightly raced runner picking this spot for his four-year-old debut.  #7 W W SCOUT’S HONOR shows up here with likely intent especially with Deshawn Parker named to ride today and this being their only mount on the card. The March 30^th race here looked to be every bit of a “PREP” and projecting the IMPROVE, they showed that against a higher class and purse ($105k) on May 6^th at Oaklawn Park. As far as #1 WALKER’S WIN, he also ran on May 6^th at Oaklawn Park and also ran against a much tougher group in the Lake Hamilton Stakes. That placement was likely “taking a shot” especially in terms of timing and form cycle following a career high 99 OptixFIG earned in his March 30^th seasonal return win here at Hawthorne. 

#3 SIVAKO returns to the turf and while it could be argued the main track is his preferred surface; would rather take the assessment the class, circuit, barn change and maturity created the improvement in his December maiden win and figure improvement in April to transfer that form today to the grass. Number wise #10 G T FIVE HUNDRED also fits on par and form cycle (every other pattern) should he transfer that form to the turf and from a physical standpoint there are no knocks with the surface switch. 

#5 MCMONEY has the benefit of turf experience exiting the April 21^st allowance at Keeneland. While he was noncompetitive on the day, the outside post, higher (STRONG) condition played against him and to his credit was able to improve his number. His 84 OptixFIG from that race stacks up above OFR today. Number wise #9 ACT A FOOL also has OptixFIG above par though was aided by the race flow and track profile especially from the April 9^th BIAS day – a profile and race outcome that played against SIVAKO. The pace projects to be solid with the 40 SpeedRate and lack of Surface/Distance data with many on the surface or distance change.

That pace scenario could assist #1 STAR NATION, one that still has hurdles stepping up to take on winners, first turf and has also finished behind others in this field – though will note he has some excuses and showed run (OptixNOTES) in those events last year. #8 RUSSIAN HAMMER also steps up to take on winners where the class test comes into play with some of his stronger races at the claiming level, though the turf intent is in play by Perez keying off the May 14^th scratch when the races were taken off the turf.

DiVito will send out a pair in this race for Doubledown Stables including #4 BEN DREAMING in to make his turf debut. While there has not BEN intent for grass, there also has not been much opportunity especially this year racing at Oaklawn Park. Overall improvement is expected from the May 4^th race, a race that began after a long DELAY and was never able to get into the running with the X_WIDE trip and handling, NO_PUSH, noting a rider change here. Hernandez was aboard last out and jumps on stablemate #7 ELI’S PROMISE, one that in addition to trying the turf for the first time will also try the two turns as well.

#6 TAHOE RUN is the obvious contender in this race and logical as the “horse to beat.” He will return to Hawthorne where he was competitive (B OptixGRADE) last year at the Special Weight level and continued to hold his form and figures at Oaklawn Park that standout against the others with similar experience in this field.  

Number wise #7 SHARP STICK must show a move forward compared to Tahoe Run exiting the Oaklawn Park (similar for #3 GONE AGAIN out of the maiden claiming races) meet though should improve with the class/circuit change as well as the distance switch back to a sprint.. Some intent could be in play adding the blinkers and also for the connections as Doubledown has runners earlier on the card.

#4 ARMAVIR was given a look on May 18^th exiting a higher caliber race back in December at Meydan, that race including stakes runners. Cold on the board and from the visuals, it appeared Armavir, still needed some experience and fitness (possibly TURF) and that could suggest intent coming right back in just 10-days for this race. Perez also returns with #2 RUSSIAN STANDARD in his second start this meet and was not as intended as his place finishing stablemate, Wolf Hunter, back on May 11^th.