Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 NOT VERY GENTLE was unable to get the right pace on May 21^st when #4 BEHAVING MYSELF spurted clear on an EASY, LONE lead and cleared (SPACED) out the field with enough to hold on. The dynamic projects to change here and assist NOT VERY GENTLE as #3 CHRISTMAS PRESENT and #5 BLURT hold enough early speed (and could also be joined by #2 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR) to press BEHAVIN MYSELF here. The same dynamics played against #1 PISTOL BOX as a deep closer (Quad IV Square) and is another that should move forward today and improve from the recent common race. 

#4 KATHAAN might not appear “on paper” to have the edge she holds when looking at the OptixPLOT and form in OptixGRID. She has a favorable RunStyle and finishing ability with the strong Square in the center of the Plot surrounded by primarily Circles. In addition, she has the benefit of recency and buried form from the April 22^nd Keeneland allowance earning a B- OptixGRADE impacted by running X_FLOW still recording a solid 88 OptixFIG, a number that sits on the higher end of the OptixFIGRANGE/OFR. 

The primarily “Circles” is noted as stablemate #5 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD, is another Square, albeit on the smaller side by comparison. She can also be given a similar upgraded from the April 21^st Keeneland trip with the TROUBLE_S, TRAFFIC racing X_FLOW and not asked (NO_PUSH) for her best in that 7^th place result.

#3 KATIE M’LADY could appear to hold a pace advantage on paper and on the Plot in Quad I, though the lack of finish (Circle) is noted especially paired with the high 58 SpeedRate. 

The “Fire” Contention and higher 58 SpeedRate should assist morning line favorite, #6 LONG LEGGED WOMAN with her RunStyle and trip she looks to return to the winners circle with Loveberry aboard. Those race dynamics could present a hurdle for #5 FIRST KITTEN despite being a Quad I Square and the edge of those front running types in this field. In addition, her form this season has been slightly flattered (Red Keywords) in the races this season. 

#2 SAMARITA has been her own worst enemy this season stumbling out of the gate on April 23^rd (BTL show finish) and again on May 7^th losing the rider (TROUBLES+) and working on her own (HARD – potentially taxing) going on to “win” riderless. Trip and pace could also assist #7 DOCS SEVEN looking to return to top form this season. She has buried form that fits and recent trips that are impacting her Plot position and shape for today’s race.

#7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY is overdue for a win and looks to have found the right spot and group today. He showed run starting off the season on March 26^th with legit TROUBLE impacting his race result and rebounded with a BTL show finish on April 23^rd. Those races with progressive form looked to set him up on May 11^th though the TROUBLE+ trip created an EX – EXCUSE on the day and overall impacted his ability to fairly compete. 

Should #8 FROST WARRIOR run back in this spot, he should have an impact on today’s race shape and additional pace pressure to #1 SWISS GUARD and #2 SUNDAY MISCHIEF. That pace “Sun” Contention upgrades, #6 CAPTAIN CARNEGIE to compete for a share (slightly outclass for this level on the win end) and should be under the radar based on the trips (See OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines) this season.

The surface switch to TURF? for #8 TEE BURNS is positive, though he must come running here as the race shape does him no favors (though not impossible) with the “Sun” and honest 37 SpeedRate. He is also one of a group of E/EP type runners in this field. 

That pace scenario moves up and upgrades the PC Runners, horses that also fit favorably on the Plot and current form. As far as #1 TWIRLING ROSES, he returns from a STRONG race, weak TACTIC- on the ride and legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. #3 LAKE MILLS has lost ground (NO_KEEP) in his most recent starts though on an “every other” pattern along with the Plot upgrade, should be sitting in the right spot to compete – at a price. #9 RACARINO being the other PC runner is deserving of a mention though is unknown on the turf and there has not been much of intention for the surface or visuals to support that change for this individual.

#5 BALADINE is worth a mention though has his challenges. The intention for the turf is in play and showed some run over the surface last season. He was eased up (No Grade) early out of rider caution (rider change today) after a bump (TROUBLE_S) and climbing over the sealed track on May 14^th.

The class drop that moved up #9 LUNARCHY (no value as the favorite) on April 27^th will look to do the same today for #7 MISS MIA. MISS MIA has that edge finding the class drop and with consistent OptixFIG this season and B- OptixGRADE at the slightly higher maiden claiming level that move her up at this level and in against the others with experience in this field. 

Of the first time starters in this field #4 BUNNY SHINE projects to land the most attention given the capable connections with this type of runner. She is running at this lower level where she does not have to be a monster to win here on debut, though will still need to show run giving up experience and fitness, which is noted as there are gaps in the published work tab. #10 VELVET SEASON is not a true first time starter though can almost be treated as one as she makes just her second start, first stateside and for Perez. The assignment of Hernandez could be a positive tell as he has picked up some live mounts with success here this season.

#8 HIGH BROW is an obvious type here, not only with the connections in his corner he has shown competitive races at this level and B OptixGRADE back on March 19^th. With that said, he projects to be a shorter price and overall does not hold that much of an edge over others in this group on their best day. #5 THRILL RIDE looked short coming off the layoff here on May 7^th and has that fitness on his side as he makes his second start back off the layoff here. As far as the distance change, he should move up with the added ground though still must prove himself on this allowance class level. Class is also a test for #6 PATH TO SUCCESS as today’s race has a higher OFR than the two allowance races earlier this season, though is given credit for the BTL effort on April 13^th. 

The intention to switch back to the turf was an interesting move for #2 DRIVEN ONE and could be looking for that surface later this season though already proven on dirt held his own to finish second and recording a solid 88 OptixFIG on May 17^th. Mason runners overall have come up short in their first start back this season, though could start to see improvement in their second start. #4 PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN is a legit longshot to win this race (though that role has not stopped him before!) though has current form and should have enough contention in front of him (bunched group on the Plot) to run on late as a Quad IV Square. 

#4 SUMMER BELLE has buried turf form and without question the grass is her preferred surface. Distance wise, she still requires to prove herself at this route distance though should be in the right spot and with intent for this second start back off the layoff. Those same distance concerns extend to her stablemate, #6 SUMMER DAY. She has been able to “get the distance” at times by her class and form, though requires a top effort and will also give up recency as she returns from the 180-day layoff in her first start of the six-year-old season and might not offer much value as she projects to be a public favorite/no value.

#3 COWGIRL FRANKIE is given a mention here as she returns to the turf for just the second time. She has visuals to suggest she can not only hand the TURF but could also move up on the surface. She has documented gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) though also comes into this race with current and progressive form. #7 QUILTING PARTY has not shown the same surface visuals, though Standard Plot visuals are tough to ignore as she sits as a Large Square and similar to Cowgirl Frankie.