Handicapper Tips & Picks

The amount of early pace with the “Fire” Contention in Quad I, should set up the race for #3 WHERE’S LUCKY and #5 MADELYNS HEAT from off the pace. WHERE’S LUCKY is preferred on the Plot as a Square and has the benefit of stronger form (OptixGRADE) this season including the 74 OptixFIG back in March, a number that stacks right up in today’s OFR. As far as MADELYNS HEAT he has back OptixFIG that stack up on par and with trips and age as he makes his second start of the four-year-old season off the layoff, could be sitting on a peak effort this afternoon. 

A competitive group of six with intent present on each of these runners. The “every other” pattern is in play for both #1 BOURBON DELIGHT and #6 FIRST MASAMUNE, giving the class, OptixFIG and Plot edge to FIRST MASAMUNE of that pair. #3 BEEALEA also shows a similar pattern and competitive race under similar conditions back on April 27^th to suggest intent here for the connections second off the claim. 

#5 GOLD BUCKLE shows a similar Surface/Distance Plot position and should rebound from his two most recent Oaklawn Park starts – he stumbled at the start on April 21^st and showed run overall just not placed (DROP) at the right level for his abilities. That placement carried to the seasonal finale, the Trail’s End stakes with the WIDE trip and over a track that upon drying out, sped up and tough trip wise for many on the day.

In terms of form cycle, both #2 PINEDALE and #4 SEMINOLE BEACH return off recording “new tops” in their most recent start and would require pairing efforts to compete here, something these individuals have struggled to do throughout their career. 

Martinez will send out a pair of recent FanDuel winners looking to pair up results back here at Hawthorne. #4 KIANA’S LOVE overall is the stronger of the two on her best though has struggled in terms of consistency at times. Consistency has not been an issue for #7 ALMAFUERTE as she tends to run her race and is capable of winning when catching the right group and trip.

#3 GHAALEB’S MAGIC was upgraded on May 18^th due to Plot position and shape and has a similar scenario today that is tough to dismiss. #5 MORNING LINE NEWS is sitting deeper in Quad IV as she cuts back in here to a sprint. There is a scenario where she can get the trip and pace to close into looking at the Plot as a whole and the potential for “bunching” with the field shape positioned above the y-axis. 

#1 IAN GLASS has been without a win since February 2022, and this placement with the changes from Vanden Berg looks to have him in the right spot for that belated win here. The connections were likely using the mile event on May 21^st to add conditioning coming back to Hawthorne and the turf from a two month break. Protected in that event, he returns to run for a claiming tag as well as cutting back (SHORTER) to the preferred sprint distance. 

The route to sprint angle has been effective for #9 KENNESAW in the past and has that angle showing up today for Rodriguez. The class drop is also in play this afternoon and less of a concern in this case as he was running for the $30k tag this year at the Fair Grounds.

Rival #4 LAND MARK DEAL is also looking to return to winning ways (most recent win June 2022) making his return today off the three month break. As far as the layoff, they have been able to win off the bench in the past and even as far as the sprint distance has run competitive races though has that combination here and RunStyle (Quad IV) likely coming from off the pace. #7 STAR OF KODIAK should offer value of the closers and should also benefit from the slight addition of ground and Santiago jumping back aboard.

Current form is the prime concern with #6 REAL NEWS coming off the layoff. His back class makes him a major contender though has shown some declining figures and layoff lines since the return last August.

#3 RAINY MOUNTAIN takes this spot following a stewards scratch from the Third Chance stakes on May 21^st. She has held her form this year and competitive place finishes at this level that stack up with this field and race par. Overall there is not much upside for her stablemate #7 STORMY EMPIRE the seven-year-old seasoned race mare compared to the younger lightly raced rivals in this field; however, there is upside for her based on her current form and trips. She turned in a solid effort and 84 OptixFIG under similar allowance conditions back on April 2^nd and was compromised by the trip and rider TACTIC- bottled up in the lane and not asked/NO_PUSH for run late to suggest she can IMPROVE off that number and seventh place finish. 

Trip/pace is the prime hurdle for #4 STYLE as one that tends to take back and make one late run. Outside of RunStyle she comes into this race with current form and figures that stack up on par for today’s condition. She also has some back class going back to some higher level events recorded earlier on in her career.

#6 PAT’S PROPERTY has legit early speed and coming out of faster race shapes than his projected pacesetting rivals, #2 GITA’S LAD and #8 SOUL COAXING. Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, #7 READTHECLIFFNOTES (no value) also could be involved in the early pace and a mismatch on Standard is concerning should he take up the role of the race favorite as expected by the morning line. 

The lack of early speed since coming back from the layoff last October has been the hurdle for #1 SILVER QUARTERS looking for his first win since that break. With that said, he has held his form and shows progressive form with improving OptixGRADES coming into this race in the third start of the cycle and should be sitting on a peak effort today. He has been able to show more tactical speed in the past, though as noted on the Plot and analysis the early pace should be honest with the “Fire” Contention for SILVER QUARTER to get his trip.

#3 NOTARY does not standout on the Plot, though some of his current form is impacting the position and shape placed in races against the dynamic and running in higher conditioned races. He has buried form and class that fits at this level. Mason has started off colder with the runners this season on the win end, though the intent looks present with NOTARY noting he was entered looking for the main track on May 21^st and shows up here with a key rider as Julio Felix takes the call.

As the projected favorite, #5 MY LIPS ARE SEALED makes sense in that role going out for live connections and making the circuit switch. Their current form moves up here at Hawthorne and logically in today’s group as shown on OptixPLOT as a Large Square. In terms of Plot, #8 LEA RO finds herself in a similar Plot position and shape to My Lips Are Sealed and noted with the price discrepancy between the two. 

The Plot shape and position is worth keeping #6 MISS KITTY PIE in the mix as she projects to be a longer priced runner in this field. The case for her is tougher to make “on paper” though tough to fully dismiss at the price give the Plot.

#9 KINGSBURY DREAM is another Large Square, though will be class tested at this allowance level and also in terms of fitness coming off the 188-day layoff. She can be given an upgrade from the 2022 finale back on November 25^th with the less than ideal (TACTIC-) trip racing WIDE and still putting in a late CLOSE despite the running line and 7^th place finish. #11 AALIYAH EZRI is currently sitting on the AE though will be upgraded should she draw into the race.