Handicapper Tips & Picks

The amount of early pace with the “Fire” Contention in Quad I, should set up the race for #3 WHERE’S LUCKY and #5 MADELYNS HEAT from off the pace. WHERE’S LUCKY is preferred on the Plot as a Square and has the benefit of stronger form (OptixGRADE) this season including the 74 OptixFIG back in March, a number that stacks right up in today’s OFR. As far as MADELYNS HEAT he has back OptixFIG that stack up on par and with trips and age as he makes his second start of the four-year-old season off the layoff, could be sitting on a peak effort this afternoon. 

A competitive group of six with intent present on each of these runners. The “every other” pattern is in play for both #1 BOURBON DELIGHT and #6 FIRST MASAMUNE, giving the class, OptixFIG and Plot edge to FIRST MASAMUNE of that pair. #3 BEEALEA also shows a similar pattern and competitive race under similar conditions back on April 27^th to suggest intent here for the connections second off the claim. 

#5 GOLD BUCKLE shows a similar Surface/Distance Plot position and should rebound from his two most recent Oaklawn Park starts – he stumbled at the start on April 21^st and showed run overall just not placed (DROP) at the right level for his abilities. That placement carried to the seasonal finale, the Trail’s End stakes with the WIDE trip and over a track that upon drying out, sped up and tough trip wise for many on the day.

In terms of form cycle, both #2 PINEDALE and #4 SEMINOLE BEACH return off recording “new tops” in their most recent start and would require pairing efforts to compete here, something these individuals have struggled to do throughout their career. 

Martinez will send out a pair of recent FanDuel winners looking to pair up results back here at Hawthorne. #4 KIANA’S LOVE overall is the stronger of the two on her best though has struggled in terms of consistency at times. Consistency has not been an issue for #7 ALMAFUERTE as she tends to run her race and is capable of winning when catching the right group and trip.

#3 GHAALEB’S MAGIC was upgraded on May 18^th due to Plot position and shape and has a similar scenario today that is tough to dismiss. #5 MORNING LINE NEWS is sitting deeper in Quad IV as she cuts back in here to a sprint. There is a scenario where she can get the trip and pace to close into looking at the Plot as a whole and the potential for “bunching” with the field shape positioned above the y-axis. 

#1 IAN GLASS has been without a win since February 2022, and this placement with the changes from Vanden Berg looks to have him in the right spot for that belated win here. The connections were likely using the mile event on May 21^st to add conditioning coming back to Hawthorne and the turf from a two month break. Protected in that event, he returns to run for a claiming tag as well as cutting back (SHORTER) to the preferred sprint distance. 

The route to sprint angle has been effective for #9 KENNESAW in the past and has that angle showing up today for Rodriguez. The class drop is also in play this afternoon and less of a concern in this case as he was running for the $30k tag this year at the Fair Grounds.

Rival #4 LAND MARK DEAL is also looking to return to winning ways (most recent win June 2022) making his return today off the three month break. As far as the layoff, they have been able to win off the bench in the past and even as far as the sprint distance has run competitive races though has that combination here and RunStyle (Quad IV) likely coming from off the pace. #7 STAR OF KODIAK should offer value of the closers and should also benefit from the slight addition of ground and Santiago jumping back aboard.

Current form is the prime concern with #6 REAL NEWS coming off the layoff. His back class makes him a major contender though has shown some declining figures and layoff lines since the return last August.

#3 RAINY MOUNTAIN takes this spot following a stewards scratch from the Third Chance stakes on May 21^st. She has held her form this year and competitive place finishes at this level that stack up with this field and race par. Overall there is not much upside for her stablemate #7 STORMY EMPIRE the seven-year-old seasoned race mare compared to the younger lightly raced rivals in this field; however, there is upside for her based on her current form and trips. She turned in a solid effort and 84 OptixFIG under similar allowance conditions back on April 2^nd and was compromised by the trip and rider TACTIC- bottled up in the lane and not asked/NO_PUSH for run late to suggest she can IMPROVE off that number and seventh place finish. 

Trip/pace is the prime hurdle for #4 STYLE as one that tends to take back and make one late run. Outside of RunStyle she comes into this race with current form and figures that stack up on par for today’s condition. She also has some back class going back to some higher level events recorded earlier on in her career.

#6 PAT’S PROPERTY has legit early speed and coming out of faster race shapes than his projected pacesetting rivals, #2 GITA’S LAD and #8 SOUL COAXING. Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, #7 READTHECLIFFNOTES (no value) also could be involved in the early pace and a mismatch on Standard is concerning should he take up the role of the race favorite as expected by the morning line. 

The lack of early speed since coming back from the layoff last October has been the hurdle for #1 SILVER QUARTERS looking for his first win since that break. With that said, he has held his form and shows progressive form with improving OptixGRADES coming into this race in the third start of the cycle and should be sitting on a peak effort today. He has been able to show more tactical speed in the past, though as noted on the Plot and analysis the early pace should be honest with the “Fire” Contention for SILVER QUARTER to get his trip.

#3 NOTARY does not standout on the Plot, though some of his current form is impacting the position and shape placed in races against the dynamic and running in higher conditioned races. He has buried form and class that fits at this level. Mason has started off colder with the runners this season on the win end, though the intent looks present with NOTARY noting he was entered looking for the main track on May 21^st and shows up here with a key rider as Julio Felix takes the call.

As the projected favorite, #5 MY LIPS ARE SEALED makes sense in that role going out for live connections and making the circuit switch. Their current form moves up here at Hawthorne and logically in today’s group as shown on OptixPLOT as a Large Square. In terms of Plot, #8 LEA RO finds herself in a similar Plot position and shape to My Lips Are Sealed and noted with the price discrepancy between the two. 

The Plot shape and position is worth keeping #6 MISS KITTY PIE in the mix as she projects to be a longer priced runner in this field. The case for her is tougher to make “on paper” though tough to fully dismiss at the price give the Plot.

#9 KINGSBURY DREAM is another Large Square, though will be class tested at this allowance level and also in terms of fitness coming off the 188-day layoff. She can be given an upgrade from the 2022 finale back on November 25^th with the less than ideal (TACTIC-) trip racing WIDE and still putting in a late CLOSE despite the running line and 7^th place finish. #11 AALIYAH EZRI is currently sitting on the AE though will be upgraded should she draw into the race.

With a few in here with speed, 3-WHERE'S LUCKY may get the trip at a price. He ran well last out and closed nicely late. He could get the right pace early to chase in here. 2-TEQUILA REVOLUTION has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. There wasn't much to push him in those last couple as those leads may have been inherited more than anything else. 6-STORM BORN also should be forwardly placed as he drops in his second start of the meet. He fits well here and has run well over this track.

It was a big effort from 2-PINEDALE last out and he should be able to repeat that performance. He figures to be close with nobody in here committed to the front as his best races have come over this track. 6-FIRST MASAMUNE has run well in his last couple. His race two back was big and if he can get back to that race he will be very tough. 3-BEEALEA just missed when claimed two back. He was a bit flat in his last but deserves another shot today.

The pace figures to be honest early in here. 3-GHAALEB'S MAGIC just missed last out and she rated and closed well late. She likes this track and should get a similar trip once again. 4-KIANA'S LOVE can show speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She also has raced well here as she returns to her best distance. 7-ALMAFUERTE also was a good winner last out. She will benefit from a solid pace upfront as she looks to repeat the performance from her last start.

A couple state-bred runners look to factor in here. 3-RAINY MOUNTAIN closed nicely at this level in her last couple and may get a little more pace to chase today. 6-BEG BORROW N STEAL got through the state-bred allowance impressively last out. Her running style will also allow her to settle and she could challenge late. 5-WILMA MANKILLER got away at a nice price for top connections in her last. She has tactical speed and shouldn't be too far off the early pace.

Maybe we catch a price with 1-SILVER QUARTERS as he will get pace to chase and rallied well in the lane last out. Tavares looks to be a good fit for him in here. 5-BANDIT SWANSON has run well at this level in his last couple. He skipped this race last time out and maybe the rest will benefit him today. 7-READTHECLIFFNOTES loves it at Hawthorne. He has tactical speed and also seems to be right there nearing the wire.

5-MY LIPS ARE SEALED is proven on the turf as she comes in off of some tough races in Florida this winter. She shouldn't be too far back at any point. 9-KINGSBURY DREAM will need pace to chase, but although winless in 16 turf tries, she has hit the board in nine of those races. 7-DIALED INNA has some tactical speed as she returns to the turf today. Let's see if she tries to contend early.

Had no option other than 1-OPTION. He does tend to tire late but he switches to the sharp apprentice in the irons and Manny has been able to hold these tiring speed types together all meet. Might be able to do it with this one. 2-TEQUILLA REVOLUTION had a wire-to-wire win and a narrow loss in his last two races. However, those races were at Will Rogers Downs and I’m not certain of the quality of the rivals he faced. Guess we’ll see. 6-STORM BORN drops. He, like so many in here, possesses good speed. Might put it to the best use at this level.

Had no option other than 1-OPTION. He does tend to tire late but he switches to the sharp apprentice in the irons and Manny has been able to hold these tiring speed types together all meet. Might be able to do it with this one. 2-TEQUILLA REVOLUTION had a wire-to-wire win and a narrow loss in his last two races. However, those races were at Will Rogers Downs and I’m not certain of the quality of the rivals he faced. Guess we’ll see. 6-STORM BORN drops. He, like so many in here, possesses good speed. Might put it to the best use at this level.

2-PINEDALE kind of looks like a no brainer after his sharp win and high speed figure in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but you have to remember that race was scheduled for turf and the runners he was meeting weren’t necessarily at their best on dirt. But it was a good win and he’s arguably taking on easier today, though most of those runners already went through their conditions. 5-GOLD BUCKLE was trounced in last couple at Oaklawn but those were salty groups he was facing in the starter ranks. His barn has been doing well here with three wins from 13 local starts but another seven finishes in the money. 3-BEEALEA hasn’t had much luck versus allowance company, including last where he finished 11 lengths behind top choice. However, he was dropped into starter company two races back and came within a neck of beating Moment, who has nine wins, and other assorted in-the-money finishes, in his last 15 starts.

2-PINEDALE kind of looks like a no brainer after his sharp win and high speed figure in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but you have to remember that race was scheduled for turf and the runners he was meeting weren’t necessarily at their best on dirt. But it was a good win and he’s arguably taking on easier today, though most of those runners already went through their conditions. 5-GOLD BUCKLE was trounced in last couple at Oaklawn but those were salty groups he was facing in the starter ranks. His barn has been doing well here with three wins from 13 local starts but another seven finishes in the money. 3-BEEALEA hasn’t had much luck versus allowance company, including last where he finished 11 lengths behind top choice. However, he was dropped into starter company two races back and came within a neck of beating Moment, who has nine wins, and other assorted in-the-money finishes, in his last 15 starts.

2-PINEDALE kind of looks like a no brainer after his sharp win and high speed figure in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but you have to remember that race was scheduled for turf and the runners he was meeting weren’t necessarily at their best on dirt. But it was a good win and he’s arguably taking on easier today, though most of those runners already went through their conditions. 5-GOLD BUCKLE was trounced in last couple at Oaklawn but those were salty groups he was facing in the starter ranks. His barn has been doing well here with three wins from 13 local starts but another seven finishes in the money. 3-BEEALEA hasn’t had much luck versus allowance company, including last where he finished 11 lengths behind top choice. However, he was dropped into starter company two races back and came within a neck of beating Moment, who has nine wins, and other assorted in-the-money finishes, in his last 15 starts.

2-APOLLO U ANYWHERE isn’t likely to be following anyone in this race; at least early. She wired the field two races back and came close to doing it again in last. Meets others that like the front end but think she has the edge in that department. 1-HER GOLD MINE turns back in distance. She’s been showing speed but tiring in recent route races but with the turn back, she could finish with a ton of run, especially if top choice gets caught in a speed duel. 3-GHAALEB’S MAGIC just missed while meeting somewhat easier company in last. That was his second race of the year. In this, his third start, he should be at the top of his game.

2-APOLLO U ANYWHERE isn’t likely to be following anyone in this race; at least early. She wired the field two races back and came close to doing it again in last. Meets others that like the front end but think she has the edge in that department. 1-HER GOLD MINE turns back in distance. She’s been showing speed but tiring in recent route races but with the turn back, she could finish with a ton of run, especially if top choice gets caught in a speed duel. 3-GHAALEB’S MAGIC just missed while meeting somewhat easier company in last. That was his second race of the year. In this, his third start, he should be at the top of his game.

1-IAN GLASS gets the nod but it’s almost imperceptible. Like the speed he showed in last going a mile in a stakes-quality allowance race but this is a different ballgame. His speed could be tempered a bit by the turn back in distance. He has never won a race at this short distance but he could be ready to break that streak. Not sure what to with 6-REAL NEWS. He has raced for some of the top barns in the country through frequent claims. He’s making his first start of the year with a series of good drills under him, however, and not sure he’s going to be ready to tackle such a salty group. 9-KENNESAW finished far back in his first turf start of the year but he’s taking on somewhat easier company today. He had a couple sharp turf sprints here last fall. He could finish with a ton of run with the turn back in distance.

I’m not in love with 5-WILMA MANKILLER but she does seem like the only real speed in this race. She showed little here last year. She won her first local start of the meet. Shouldn’t have to work too hard to get to the lead and just put it on cruise control. 3-RAINY MOUNTAIN didn’t show a thing in her debut but has gone of to score two wins and finished second four times since her lackluster debut. Today she adds blinkers which could help her focus. It could help even more if one of her rivals was kind enough to pressure top pick early. 4-STYLE won her last two and three of her last five in Tampa. She usually comes from far off the pace but she was claimed from last and maybe her new connections will be able to coax a little more speed out of her. 2-PALACE MAGIC might be the only one capable of pressing the early pace. She has displayed good speed at times but doesn’t always show it. 

6-PAT’S PROPERTY could sneak in under the radar. He ran well at Oaklawn all meet, with a win, a second and a third in his three starts in Arkansas. Good tactical speed should have him laying right behind the early pace and he could be sent to the front when they come out of the far turn. 7-READTHECLIFFNOTES has been so good here for so long. In his life, he won 12 of 26 starts but his Hawthorne record in move impressive with nine wins from 12 starts. However, he raced only two times last year and he finished last by 24 in his lone 2023 start. Which horse shows up? There should be plenty of pace to set things up for 3-NOTARY. His races at Oaklawn this year haven’t been all that sharp but this promises to be a good wake-up spot.

6-PAT’S PROPERTY could sneak in under the radar. He ran well at Oaklawn all meet, with a win, a second and a third in his three starts in Arkansas. Good tactical speed should have him laying right behind the early pace and he could be sent to the front when they come out of the far turn. 7-READTHECLIFFNOTES has been so good here for so long. In his life, he won 12 of 26 starts but his Hawthorne record in move impressive with nine wins from 12 starts. However, he raced only two times last year and he finished last by 24 in his lone 2023 start. Which horse shows up? There should be plenty of pace to set things up for 3-NOTARY. His races at Oaklawn this year haven’t been all that sharp but this promises to be a good wake-up spot.

Hard to get past 5-MY LIPS ARE SEALED. She’s been an East Coast fixture with races at Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct, Gulfstream and most recently Tampa. She really hasn’t been all that successful with three wins from 16 races but think she’s going to be meeting a significantly easier group of rivals in her local debut. 8-LEA RO, like top choice, ships in from Tampa. She’s moving up in class but there is a world of speed ahead of her which should set up for her late run. 12-SAFE TRAVELS is a speedy runner that figures if he draws into the race. Last, but maybe not least, is 10-GYRUZA. He’s coming off an easy dirt win against maiden claimers. Blinks on seemed to help him greatly. But the reason for his inclusion here is his connections and pedigree. He’s bred to love the lawn and his barn has sent out a number of homebreds by Gio Ponti that ran surprisingly well at huge odds. Might want to include him in vertical gimmicks.