Handicapper Tips & Picks

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#2 GHAALEB’S DREAMS returns to make a second start off the layoff from a TROUBLE trip in the May 18^th return. She broke slow and from the rail checked before making a late/CLOSE run and should be noted with today’s Plot position and shape impacted by the trip. The excessive layoff lines create a different overall concern and reason to have reservations and look for a backup plan.

OptixPLOT could present an advantage for #1 KITTEN ROCKS and #4 CAIRO SUMMER forwardly placed as Quad I/III runners. The Surface/Distance Contention could be just what #6 WEEKEND PASS requires to work a trip from off the pace/Quad IV Square. Her stablemate #5 HARD LIKE HOLLY also projects a move forward with the start on May 25^th and the added (STRETCH) ground. 

#4 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY showed she can run a bit given the effort from last year. The connections perhaps tried to sneak one by as she was a NO_PUSH on debut at HS Indy and was live and bet down in her second start and Hawthorne debut on September 23^rd. She had the challenges that day (and her following start) racing against open company and later in the season in stakes company. Those effort give her an edge over the others with experience in this field though will give a mention to #5 THAT’S A BIRD from her efforts showing run (B- OptixGRADE/improving OptixFIG) in her races out at Fan Duel.

The biggest threat should come from the “new faces” in the first time starters: #3 MADELYN BELLE appears well meant on this circuit and statebred level for trained/bred/owned Catalano and sure to find the support of the public in this race. #6 TOUR DE’PORT has some gaps in the published work tab though enough foundation that could have her live on debut for Quinonez and could fly under the radar in this spot and worth keeping an eye on the board. 

The class edge in this compact field sides with both #3 WEST WARPATH and #6 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY returning to this level and from a STRONG allowance event back on May 18^th. As far as the race shape, SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY could find the preferred trip stalking as a strong Quad II Square and the only runner above the ParLine. WEST WARPATH has some tactical speed and is likely to look for a first run on that prime rival. 

#7 BRUCE BANNER stands out on the Plot and taking a deeper dive in his running lines, that position and shape fits in this race. He has some buried turf form that hiding just off the page on the printed past performances that makes him a fit in this race. He improved with his first turf start back on April of 2022 at Tampa and was intended for turf running here at Hawthorne last May. His form since has held up and should benefit from the recent starts, the surface switch and added ground for this event.

The main contender group returns from the May 18^th common race and “logical” types starting with #8 KINGSBURRY ATTACK recording a B- OptixFIG with adversity with TRAFFIC and making a WIDE MOVE in addition to another solid Plot position here; #10 STRIKE PRICE had form back at Turfway this year and struggled on the main track though moved up on the turf in a TROUBLE trip place finish. Perhaps the most overlooked of the group #5 STORM’S REFLECTION despite the 5^th place finish also recorded a B- OptixGRADE and did so with legit TROUBLE+ and lacking room playing a role in the outcome. 

With #5 DELIGHTFUL BREEZE in the field, #4 PLUS CHIC does not project to hold as much of an edge in this race looking at OptixPLOT as one that could be favored. Plus Chic has some solid published work times coming back from the layoff though is still Large Quad I Circle with the time off and the “Fire” Contention to overcome.

Rosin will send out a pair in this race: #7 OFF RAMP should benefit from the “Fire” as a Quad II/IV Square and comes into this race in current form from the Oaklawn Park meet. Her stablemate #3 SOMEONE SAID SO will make her belated return today and was last seen in November at HS Indy finishing in front of stablemate Off Ramp that day. SOMEONE SAID SO has back class and figures that stand out in this field. Her form last year was impacted by “trips” and timing which has impacted Plot position and shape for today’s race. Keeping that in mind and reading through the lines she showed enough to compete on this circuit, level and with today’s group if back to top form. There are some gaps in the published works coming back for 2023 as well as a vet scratch from similar conditions, surface/distance here last December.

Tough to knock the efforts from both #4 PACIFIC VIEW and #6 BLAZE BEAUTY returning from the May 21^st common race back in this spot. With that said, these two lack early speed and just like the event 17-days ago that could open up an opportunity for a runner with early speed to take the pace advantage.

Looking at the runners with experience, none have shown an E or EP RunStyle when sprinting (#3 JOYZELLA has around two turns and could try that tactic here) and that controlling speed could be in the hands of the first time starters. #5 FLYING COMET could be that horse with some consistent works for Perez including a “bullet” from the gate on May 31^st and picking a live rider for this outfit with Olaf Hernandez aboard. 

#1 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was favored at this level back on November 27^th and not only was he running on the dirt (presents TURF visuals) he was compromised by the SLOG and ride/TACTIC- impacting him on the day with a subtle trip. They should rebound in this spot back on the grass though a shorter price once again would not be any surprise.

Trainer Chris Block will also send out first time starter #5 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS for Lothenbach, an owner group that will also be represented by #12 MO TIME AT ALL upgraded in this spot with the class drop and right move for this six-year-old horse. He is part of the group finding the class change from the Special Weight event on May 18^th. #4 AQUACAT figures the most “obvious” from that group on numbers as well as holding a competitive, B- OptixGRADE here at this level, surface/distance with a WIDE trip last September. #6 ICE VORTEX is not as accomplished though finds the right changes (DROP) in his second start back off the layoff and upside all around.

Manley will send out a pair with #10 MISSOURI GENT returning to this circuit and turf where he ran last June showing early speed in a Very Fast pace at the Special Weight level before losing ground. Overall improvement is required and with numbers softer than his stablemate - #3 LAWMAKER one that should move up to compete on the drop though still requires a top effort and might even need to be “best” in this field as he has shown some distance limitations in the past.

#8 ANCIENT MAN is another double-digit type of runner worth keeping on the radar. While the surface is unknown, the class DROP appears the right move and earned a follow making a MOVE against the track (X_BIAS) back on April 13^th and recorded figure that stacks right up on par. The class change is the opposite direction stepping up for #11 NOBLE CREEKER at the same time he is back at his preferred ROUTER distance and similar for surface keying off his turf juvenile form and figures which standout over his dirt form. With those races recorded as a juvenile a move forward could be projected that would have them right on par with the others in this field to surprise as a longshot in this race. 

The gate/SLOG issues have created adversity for #1 BLACK RUSSIAN going back to the EX – EXCUSE on April 30^th and detached from the May 25^th group though showed late interest and GALLOP+ after the result. The SpeedRate could be on his side today and does require a trip and pace (and value) to run at.

As far as the early pace #9 LAMELO should present upside in his second start back off the layoff and offer value over former stablemate #4 STAN THE CAMERAMAN and rival #3 UNCAPTURED DREAM as the Quad I Square flight. #2 FLYING CRICKET is not shown in Quad I today though is in proximity and with the class DROP and positive rider change projects to be more forwardly placed here.

#5 PROCHARGER was logical here on May 21^st with the circuit switch and class drop. Overall he did improve both in terms of OptixFIG/GRADE and with the COLD Mason barn still looking to get on track here this season. #6 ONE ACE also returns from that event and can project upside taking KICKBACK from an inner post position and the shift to the middle could assist him though is one that does appear to need forward position or run outside horses, ideally. 

Don't think you have to look too deep here. 2-GHAALEB'S DREAMS drops in class, looks to be the lone speed and should improve in her second off a long, long layoff. Expect her to coast and wire these. 4-CAIRO SUMMER ran a decent race while sprinting last out. With the stretch out and 10 lbs bug in the saddle, maybe she improves off that performance. 3-ZENCHUA SKY looks to pick up the pieces late. She faced tougher here two back and improved on the drop at Fairmount last out.

3-MADELYN BELLE debuts for a barn that typically has them ready early. She gets Lasix and has worked very well at Keeneland coming into this start. 4-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY held her own against Illinois-bred stakes company to close out 2022. She makes her first start of the year and has also worked well toward the return. 1-R KATIEBUG also debuts with Lasix. The inside can be tough for a first timer but with snappy gate drills you have to think she will show some speed.

Maybe the rider change improves things for 6-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY as he has run well and picks up Centeno today. He should get pace to chase and come running late. 3-WEST WARPATH has tactical speed and figures to rate close. He looks to be a great claim for $7,500 as his two allowance tries have been solid. 2-DON'T BOX ME IN has speed as he makes his return off the long layoff. He has also worked well toward the return and may try to clear in here.

8-KINGSBURY ATTACK is proven on turf and comes in off a good race at this level in his last. Tavares fits him well and the distance suits also. 3-MODAZZLE was claimed out of his last and returns in the same spot today. He may rate closer early as there isn't a ton of pace in this race. 10-STRIKE PRICE ran a big race at a big price in his last. He figures to settle mid-pack early but should come charging in the lane.

Solid field as Coty Rosin has two in here. I like the Oaklawn efforts from 7-OFF RAMP as she has run on well in each of her last four starts. She looks to get enough pace to close into today as well. 1-RONAN ran a bit race in the Third Chance last out. She also is likely to sit back early and come charging in the lane. 4-PLUS CHIC is one with speed but she is also game when challenged. She makes her first start of the meet and has worked very well toward her return.

Curios to see how the wagering is in this full field. 3-LAWMAKER has run some good races on the turf and comes out of a solid performance in Indiana last out. Maybe his sits a bit closer early in here. 12-MO TIME AT ALL is a 6yo that is early in his career but ran a decent race in his last. He draws outside against and will have to work out a trip. 4-AQUACAT chased in his last before coming up empty in the lane. He should rate close the entire way in here and let's see if he can finish.

Hoping there is enough pace early to set things up for 5-PROCHARGER to rally in the lane. He ran well in his first start of the meet and has every right to improve. 8-JACKPOT BOY also improves last out as he shortens back up today. Have to figure he settles early but he may come running at them in the lane. 3-UNCAPTURED DREAM has some speed as he could be sitting on a big race. He takes the class drop in here which may be enough to get him over the top.

2-GHAALEB’S DREAMS looks like the one to beat. She didn’t show much in last, her first start since 2021, but that race was on turf and she was running against better. She had a win and a narrow loss in her last two dirt races here. Can take these. 4-CAIRO SUMMER fits. As a sprinter with speed stretching out, she might be able to secure an easy lead. 1-KITTEN ROCKS completes the route-sprint-route cycle. She finished behind some of these the last time she ran in a route but she also finished second the last time they stretched her out.

3-MADELYN BELLE has been training well for her career debut. Her works took place at Keeneland and she did pop a couple bullets. It has to be mentioned, however, that Keeneland isn’t racing right now so you really don’t know who she was outworking. On the other hand, she’s racing for top-notch connections. Could be a good one. 4-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY MEETS Illinois-bred maidens for the first time. She finished second in the Debutante last year. We know she has some speed. They’ll have to catch her. 1-R KATIEBUG is another first timer with a solid set of drills. Full sister to Katie M’ Lady, who just wired a good allowance field here last week, she’s probably headed to the turf before too long since her sister is a stakes winner on that surface and that’s where he best races were run.

5-TABLE MONEY can upset. It doesn’t really show it on paper but think that he’s the fastest from the gate. Oaklawn shipper makes his local debut and he’ll carry nine pounds less than he did in his last start. His rider has been good at getting horses out of the gate quickly. They might be able to wire the field. 3-WEST WARPATH showed little in his first trip over this track but came right back to narrowly miss at this level. He should never be too far off the pace but don’t think that he’ll try for the early lead. Might be able to slip by late. 6-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY is having a good year. He’s had five races with one win and four shows. His best move will come late. 4-DASH TO THE CASH meets winners for the first time, His speed figures lag behind many of those in here but he does have a good closing move and most of his races have lacked much pace to set up for him. Maybe today’s race will be different.

3-MODAZZLE tired late in last while making his turf debut but he made a nice middle move to challenge for the lead before tiring. He was claimed from that race and cuts back for this. Switches to the leading rider. Now he has turf experience. Could be much tougher today. 8-KINGSBURRY ATTACK is usually in the hunt on the lawn. He’s one of only two in this field that ever won on turf. He finished third in last, beating top pick by a length and a half after taking the lead late in the stretch. He’s another likely to benefit from the cut back in distance. 10-STRIKE PRICE was let off as a longshot in last even though he had some good turf races out east last year. He did finish second in his local turf debut, beating top pair. Figures to be a major player once again.

7-OFF RAMP gets the nod. She’s been racing competitively at the tough Oaklawn meet and even won her last start there. The fact that this race is filled with speed and she looks like the best closer only adds to the appeal. 4-PLUS CHIC makes her first start of the year but she’s been popping bullet drills, she possesses blistering speed, and she has done well off layoffs. Not sure how to take 1-RONAN’s last race. It’s true that it was a state bred race but it was a stakes and she finished second to Oeuvre who would be 3-5 in this field. This mare has been on the improve lately. Deserves another look. 

This field seems pretty devoid of early speed runners but first timer 5-FLYING COMET has some drills that could imply that she owns some early foot. She’s bred to be a good one but runners from her barn often need a race or two before mounting their best effort. With narrow losses in her last two starts, 4-PACIFIC VIEW looks like the one to beat. However, she’s been coming from off the pace and in a race that doesn’t appear to have much early pace, she could be vulnerable. 3-JOYZELLA is always a threat but she’s another that will most likely trying to make a late run against a slow pace. She’s likely to finish well with the turn back in distance but she could run out of real estate.

Wide-open race but going to go with 12-MO TIME AT ALL. He ran on turf in three of his four career starts and while he didn’t really get close, he split the fields in all of them. This will be the first time he meets maiden claimers on the lawn. His only other maiden claiming races was against $100K foes. Think this will be the easiest field he ever faced. 4-AQUACAT finished on near even terms with top choice in last and he finished second at this level last year. He owns good speed. Can be right there throughout. 3-LAWMAKER figures prominently. Flew late in last to get up for third versus better rivals. The extra distance of this race could be all that it takes.

3-UNCAPTURED DREAM drops back to the right level. The last three races he was in where he made sense, he finished in the money and he’ll be meeting easier than ever in this one. 4-PROCHARGER finished third at this level in his local debut. Might improve with experience over the track. 7- CHERRY ORCHARD drops to his lowest level ever. Price shot cam improve dramatically at this level.