Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is an evenly matched group with the field capable on their best day and not far off each other number wise. #1 BEEALEA could present value in this field and upside for the connections in this spot and since the claim. Going back to the April 27^th race at this level, he recorded a B- OptixGRADE, a GRADE consistent with the current form at the level from both #5 DANVILLE and #6 GLOBAL EMPIRE, logical types in this race. BEEALEA earned that B- GRADE and 82 OptixFIG with a WIDE trip and in a peak portion of his form cycle – second off with the stretch out. Claimed that day he stepped up in class for both the May 14^th and June 1^st races with the higher purse and breaking slow (SLOG) in both was against the race flow (Very Slow/S) in both starts. The pace should be honest today with #2 TROY OUNCE and #3 ASTI SKY.

The trip and race flow could also suit #4 JEFF THE LION looking for that first win since the series of layoff lines. He has held his form this year around two turns and stayed on as the best of the speed/BOS, back on April 20^th earning a B- OptixGRADE under similar Optional Claiming conditions. 

Looking at the Standard (current form) OptixPLOT, there is not much between morning line favorite, #2 TRIPLE CHROME and #1 SPEEDY G, upgraded as value/longshot as the longer of the two runners. SPEEDY G will require a trip from the rail as well as a top effort, though with that “hidden form” also comes intent as the connections scratched from a route race at the level last Sunday, June 4^th, to run here instead as well as picking up a live rider change to Santiago.  

Going back to the Plot and assessing the early speed, #6 IRONMAN RICHIE has the edge both on early (furthest left) and second call (higher on y-axis) above the ParLine from rival, #3 BOURBON TEDDY. There is a gap from that pair to #4 TEA AFTER BALLET and #5 DEORA STORE sitting in Quad IV and trip comes into play with that scenario combined with today’s shorter 5.5f distance. 

In terms of class, speed #9 NO KAY NEVER is logical as the favorite and validated in this field looking at the OptixPLOT in that role. She projects to be favored for those reason and the horse to beat. Ward will also send out #6 STARS ON FIRE, one that has course experience breaking her maiden here last November, though has not been seen since and overall must improve as she returns to take on winners and older in her sophomore debut.

#4 BALI BABY is tough to ignore at the projected longer odds showing up as a Square both on Standard and Surface/Distance. She has some buried form and figures that stack up on par and looking to get back to top form for the first time in 2023 would have her competitive in this group.

The creative idea comes from the Cristel runners starting with #3 CRYSTAL SNOW. She has some buried form at the maiden level and held a hidden class edge from the maiden claiming events at Turfway Park with the higher purse giving her an edge on April 20^th. She was dominant, B+ OptixGRADE over the group that day and the connections kept her protected on May 14^th in allowance company, the first start against winners. She was compromised with the trip/TACTIC- and did not have a clear chance (NO_PUSH) to run her race and did a lot of running (GALLOP+) after the wire. Stablemate #10 JUDY’S MS OFFICER has a class test stepping up from the claiming races to today’s allowance level, though has held form this season (Standard Plot) and as far as the surface switch she has given the physical indication she can hand TURF.

Looking at OptixPLOT, the contention (Fire) looks heave and honest (50 SpeedRate) with #1 FROST WARRIOR, #2 STAR OF TOMORROW and #5 AWESOME SUNDAY together in Quad I above the ParLine. #3 OPALINE is also projected to show early speed noting the position in Quad III as well as the recent TROUBLE_S that had her RUSH to the lead. STAR OF TOMMOROW is the Square of the trio and upgraded from that perspective, though must overcome the pace complexion and value is required as Mason runners have come up short this meet without excuse even when logical. AWESOME SUNDAY has the considerable class edge with the massive drop to run at this level. Number wise, her OptixFIG from the debut win last December and return figure on April 2^nd stand out in this field.

At double digit odds, #1 FROST WARRIOR is worth getting creative with. She was competitive at this level earlier this season with both races back in March earning B- OptixGRADE and OptixFIG that fit today’s OFR. She has higher figures that stack up above par for her turf races and some buried form and positive form cycle pattern coming into that race that could see her fly under the radar and back to a top effort.

The pace should set up for the seasoned mares #4 SEQUAYA and #6 BELLS OF JOY ones that require all the help they can get, and value to play, as they look for the belated win to clear the condition and should find it here as well as fit on their best day.

#2 DRAGONERA ships in for trainer Eoin Harty and appears (OptixPLOT) to hold a strong edge in this field. She fits with the pace advantage shown as Quad I Square above the ParLine and OptixFIG shown in the Past 3 Runlines above today’s OFR.

Number wise #1 COTTON CANDY ANNIE has run some of the higher figures from the group including the number 16-days ago picking up the HS Indy win. While those numbers stack up with this group, she (along with #6 DESSERT FIRST) are the most seasoned in the field and has not shown much upside, something that is present with the others in this group.

#3 TAR HEEL GIRL debuted on the turf during the contentious Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park with some TROUBLE in her races and excuses given the trips and level of competition. Those efforts along with the circuit switch presented the edge on April 23^rd which she took advantage of despite running on the main track to break her maiden. A case can be made we have yet to see the best of her on the turf and that could come this afternoon.

Block Stablemate #5 LORRAINE’S LEGACY will take on winners after picking up the maiden score on March 12^th finally getting the job done as the favorite, a role she had in each start going back to her October debut. To her credit, she improved number wise with each start and requires another move forward in with this group. The surface will also be a change noting the intent to run at the N1X allowance level back on May 7^th though as a vet scratch that day was unable to compete – though to be fair turf racing was not available to her at that time.

Longshot #4 SUNSET PAYNTER caught the eye breaking her maiden on debut back in January at Golden Gate Fields and was not alone in those impressive visuals as she was privately purchased from that race. She spent the rest of the season at Oaklawn Park in spots that were both contentious (BTL on March 25^th) and perhaps not ideal as far as class and distance as well. The conditions of today’s race are another change for her to step up on as she makes her turf debut and will race back around two-turns. Some positive intent could be in play given the those first two starts, landing on this circuit and picking up a top rider in Emigh for this race.

Value is the concern here with #8 PASTA SALAD RHONDA as she has the documented gate (SLOG) issues and must step up given the others in this field and her form into this race. Class wise she will find relief back on this circuit and exiting some competitive races at the Fair Grounds with form holding up from those races both January 22nd (common race with Dessert First) and March 25th. 

#6 MUD ISLAND appears to hold a pace advantage and value in this field, a combination that is always tough to dismiss. Rivals #4 KING TITO and #5 D’FEVER have shown legit early speed to keep the pace honest going back in their past performances and would change the complexion of the race should they take that tactical approach today.

#2 RESTORING HOPE projects to be favored though does not appear to offer much value in that role. As an individual he is capable and fits in this race; in terms of trip he will be looking to take first run (Quad III Square) on the pacesetters including Mud Island (Circle) and looking for the jump on the Quad IV Square rivals.

With buried form, #3 BORN AGAIN GEORGE was given the push on May 11^th and did everything right (BTL) if willing to excuse the stumble (TROUBLES+) at the start and losing the rider while going on to cross the wire first. He validated that effort coming back on May 11^th to CLOSE and just come up short recording a B OptixGRADE in the place finish. By contrast, #7 TAPIT SAM returns from that May 21^st event recording the B- OptixGRADE, a touch below BORN AGAIN GEORGE and could win up being shorter of the two on the board. 

Followers of Club Hawthorne Live will recall the March 31^st Friday show when #8 EVEN THE WIND was given the push coming off a sneaky BTL debut. It was noted by Jim his IL-bred eligibility and connections that could see him run on this circuit. As projected he landed here on May 4^th and showed run following the TROUBLES+ start and visuals that should see him move up on today’s TURF surface.

The Block/Goldfine connections will also be represented by #9 COOL AND COLLECTED for his debut with intent for today’s surface/distance noting they were entered and unable to draw into a similar race back on May 21^st. Centeno was named on Cool and Collected that day though will remain on #2 MINNESOTA MOON coming off the recent place finish. While that effort might look appealing “on paper” it was less “gamely” lacking/NO_FINISH after setting a moderate pace – a similar race and outcome without excuse going back to April 13^th. He is an easy favorite to try and take on should he fall into that favorite role today.

In addition to Minnesota Moon, Lothenbach Stables will be represented by #4 GOING AT IT returning to make his second start. He is deserving of a follow and upside from the debut (RANK, WIDE) where the experience should benefit this individual. Despite finishing off the board his 71 OptixFIG has him right in line with many of the “logical” types in this field and at the same time perhaps the most upside.  

Not quite a second time starter, though similar considerations given to #5 ALL CHOKED UP as he makes his second start this season and back from the long layoff. Both of his starts as a juvenile in 2021 can be excuses and the May 21^st effort given a “flow upgrade” setting a Very Fast early pace, a pace that benefit the Block trained, Out of Deductions to score by open lengths earning a 98 OptixFIG. 

6-GLOBAL EMPIRE merits a look as he came out of a tough race on Sunday for this spot instead. He fits well here and figures to get pace to chase. 4-JEFF THE LION should rate close early but doesn't need the lead to win. If he can tuck in just behind Troy Ounce early and wait to move he should be in a perfect spot. 5-DANVILLE has three straight runner-up efforts as he won't be too far back in here. He likes this track and figures to take a good amount of action today.

I'm expecting an honest pace upfront which should help 4-TEA AFTER BALLET. He ran well at this level at a big price last out and picks up the 10 lbs. bug today. Let's see if he can close quickly late. 5-DEORA STORE has run his best here at Hawthorne. He had some trouble early in his last but is worth another look as he should get the right pace setup in here. 2-TRIPLE CHROME won't be too far back early but also doesn't need the lead to win. His race two back puts him right there as he should be able to track the leaders and get the jump on the closers.

So much pace in this race as a pair from the barn of Wesley Ward are entered in here. 9-NO KAY NEVER figures to get a great trip and she makes her first start of the year off a couple of stakes tries last summer. She is working well toward the return and Loveberry picks up the mount. 7-CHROME ATTACK could be overlooked but she has some good turf sprints under her as she will also likely come running late. She worked well off her last start and could be sitting on a big effort. 8-SHE'S WANDAFUL has also run well in some turf tries as she should benefit from the fast pace upfront. She makes her first start of the year and could be a square price.

Hard to put either 4-SEQUAYA or 6-BELLS OF JOY on top as they are a combined 2/65 in the win column on their career but the pace setup should benefit both. 2-STAR OF TOMORROW  has only three lifetime starts as she chased for place last out. She looks to have some tactical speed and may be able to close well in the stretch.

Sometimes the favorite is just where you have to go and that seems to be the case with 2-DRAGONERA. She comes off a couple of turf efforts in Florida this winter and should get a perfect stalking trip in here. 8-PASTA SALAD RHONDA ran a decent race on the turf in New Orleans while facing a tough bunch. She may sit a bit closer early and could also rally into contention in the lane. 3-TAR HEEL GIRL runs for a top turf barn. She broke her maiden on the dirt though but finds things easier here on the grass than what she saw in the Championship meet at Gulfstream.

A really nice effort from 2-RESTORING HOPE last out as we will see if he can repeat that performance today. He should rate just behind what could be a contested pace as he figures to close well in the lane. 1-DEVIL'S RULE doesn't like to win, with only three lifetime victories, but he has a combined 23 2nd and 3rd place races. Look for him to sit back early and close to contend underneath late. 5-D'FEVER was a bit disappointing in his last, especially off the victory two back. Let's see if he rates closer early in here and has something more left in the tank late.

Looks to be a decent amount of pace in this race.  If that's the case, 8-EVEN THE WIND should be able to sit back early and close well in the lane. His race two back was sharp and he has worked well since that start. 9-COOL AND COLLECTED comes in with a pattern of sharp works into this spot. I don't mind the outside draw as he gets Lasix for his debut. With the long run into the first turn, he should be able to find position. 5-ALL CHOKED UP showed speed on the grass last out and held second behind a very sharp winner. He could have company early in here but he may also be quick enough to clear.

5-DANVILLE has been in good form all year between racing at Gulfstream and Hawthorne. He finished second in his two races this meet at this level. He finished second to the tough Moment in last and that runner wasn’t eligible for this race so he faces marginally easier. 2-TROY OUNCE was claimed from last. He won two of his last three while meeting easier. He loves the front end and is the most consistent speed of those in here but he’s not necessarily the best. But if unchallenged early he can take it all the way. 4-JEFF THE LION is a little more versatile than the top pain and he’s another to run well on or off the pace. He finished third behind the top pair in last two, distantly in last, but he is capable of improving that position.

Don’t think there’s anything approaching a standout in this race. The “usual suspects” are likely to be players once again but there is little to separate them. Would imagine that 2-TRIPLE CHROME, with the turn back in distance, will be racing behind the speed and wait for them to tire late. 6-IRONMAN RICHIE is the most consistent speed. Just not convinced that he’s the best early speed. He’ll undoubtedly challenge for the lead at some point. 3-BOURBON TEDDY is probably the quickest from the gate but he’s shown little staying power.

9-NO KAY NEVER makes her first start of the year but sharp works for sharp connections will have her ready to go. She was a debut winner in Indiana last year and went on to run well in stakes races at Saratoga and Woodbine. Meets what should be a much easier group today. She’ll be tough on or off the lead. Wouldn’t discount 2-MOVE IT BABY. She wired the field on turf in her debut at Colonial last year but tired after showing good speed in a contest at Kentucky Downs. Like top choice, she’s been training well for her first race of the year. Guessing she’ll be gunning for the lead quickly. Might be able to steal this. 6-STARS ON FIRE shipped here to break her maiden last fall after a lackluster debut at Saratoga. She is blessed with good early speed. 

2-STAR OF TOMORROW is a weak pick but she is one of the few in this race that shows sustained speed. Not sure she can even get to the lead but she’ll never be far back and should be right there if the rest of the speed runs out of gas. What do you do with 5-AWESOME SUNDAY? She’s dropping from much tougher levels. But she has also had only one slow drill in the month since her last start and she’s been one of those who tends to tire and tire quickly. The pace of this race could benefit 6-BELLS OF JOY. Don’t think she’s fast enough to win this but she will be picking off tiring horses late.

2-DRAGONERA looks tough. She ran on turf twice and ran well both times, finishing third in her grass debut and then graduating in last. Few of her rivals have shown much in few turf starts. Seems likely to make it two in a row. 5-LORRAINE’S LEGACY could surprise. She appears to be the quickest of these and her talented apprentice rider has become very adept at getting horses out of the gate quickly. Plus, her barn is one of the tops on this circuit with grass runners. If they don’t challenge this filly quickly, she might never look back. 1-COTTON CANDY ANNIE’S turf race was probably better the outcome would indicate. She finished fourth but beat eight rivals while racing in a maiden race carrying a purse of $150k. Like that she’s capable of running well on or off the pace. Don’t ignore.

2-RESTORING HOPE seeks his second win in a row. Victor of last in Indiana owns enough tactical speed to stay close but can still finish with authority. He had some decent races here in the past. Could be good enough to do it again. 3-BORN AGAIN GEORGE just missed versus similar rivals. They took blinkers off him for that race after two lackluster races with them. Giles stays up. Could outfnish the rest. Many runners have some early zip but none have been able to sustain that speed lately. But 5-D’FEVER has a chance to do just that. He was never close in a race containing many of these rivals in last but he’ll be ridden by an apprentice and will carry nine pounds less than he did last time out. It can make the difference. 

5-ALL CHOKED UP returned from a year and a half layoff to make his local and turf debut and it was a great effort. He led early through blistering fractions and held on to finish second, finishing ahead of eight rivals. Like that they worked him out after that race. He’s meeting other with speed but not sure any can keep up through the 1:10 six furlongs he generated in last. He should be fitter in his second start back after the lengthy layoff and he’ll be racing with Lasix for the second. Will have to be caught. 2-MINNESOTA MOON is also blessed with good speed. Probable favorite, however, has had three turf races, including one here, without showing much. Could be vulnerable. 4-GOING AT IT ran evenly in his lone start but that was just a prep. This well-bred runner tackles turf for the first time. He’s bred to be a good one. Could stalk early and pounce late. 

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