Handicapper Tips & Picks

The key in this race is finding an alternative to #5 MIZZEN ASH as she projects to be a shorter price in this race for the connections and coming off the win. She is capable; however she does not hold a strong edge over many of her rivals and in terms of pace could require a trip (Quad IV Square) from off the pace to win. There are others in this field with form for today’s conditions and that form “buried” off their recent running lines and finishing positions.

#1 SHE’S WANDAFUL is upgraded with the key changes making her second start back off the layoff (PREP) and added ground (STRETCH) from the sprint two weeks ago. She does not “standout” on the Plot, though that “buried” form playing a role in today’s position and holding early speed (Quad I) could be an asset with the “Snowflake” Contention.

#4 EMBARRASSING will take a slight rise in class coming back in this spot and second off the layoff. She can be upgraded from the running line and finishing position with the BTL OptixNOTE and while this is a class rise today, her prior form and class comparison suggests that with a top effort she can compete here.

#3 WAY TOO SMARTE has had just limited opportunities to run on the TURF though from a physical standpoint she appears suited to the surface. As far as those four turf starts, two resulted in wins here at Hawthorne including the Oakbrook Stakes last spring. She has run protected for Pompell since added to the barn and the decision to run for the tag today suggests they are looking to place here where she can compete.  Rival #7 BEYOND PROPER also  returns today to run for a tag and perhaps that can be less of a positive sign as drops for that first time coming back off the 201-day break.

A case can be made for many in this compact field of five giving #4 KRAMDEN a look as he wheels back (along with #5 WHERE’D THE DAY GO) from the race last week. KRAMDEN has started to lose some conditioning as the main concern heading the June 14^th race and the late interest and overall visuals were encouraging to see him show he is getting back on track. Bendezu will be back aboard today and has been aboard in the past including their most recent win here on December 2^nd. 

#5 COMING UP ACES will return to the TURF his preferred surface and a surface he has not had the chance to run race over much in the past year. Miller has kept up his conditioning on the main track and form running under similar par/OFR events in against open company around two turns. The shift back to statebred company and Santiago can also be seen as a positive as well as the change to run back on Lasix today to suggest further intent.

#4 JUST BLAZE seems “obvious” in this race for the connections and coming off the recent place finish. This will be his return to the statebred level for the first time since his three-year-old season though has run on this circuit since, doing so at the claiming level. JUST BLAZE is on the smaller side and makes sense that the connections have kept him sprinting for most of his career – the 7.5f two-turn distance is not his ideal, though with a top effort and with the right group is capable, though that should be factored as the shorter price is expected. 

The early pace expects to be contentious (Sun) and three of those pacesetters (#1 I DON’T KNOW MARGO, #2 FREE LOVE and #6 KITTY MACLEAN) all showing a lack of finish (Circles) can upgrade the others in the field with finishing (Square) ability.

#5 MISS MELODY the first to upgrade as the other EP runner in this field and while she is not in Quad I can take up that role if asked or at the least, sit close enough to take first run. In terms of speed, she has run some of the faster speed figures in this field, another reason to upgrade in this spot.

The Large Square of #4 BEG BORROW N STEAL is tougher to ignore and could upgrade her more in this field than how she looks on paper. #3 PALACE MAGIC is another that could move up into contention in today’s race shape. Her form does not tower over others, though is right in line with many in this field. Banks claimed her back on May 18^th and protected here against allowance company on June 1^st just to get a start and keep up conditioning and the class DROP appears the right move here. 

The shift to the TURF and DROP to the maiden claiming level for #2 SECRET OPERATION looked to be the right move on May 25^th. She encountered TROUBLE and the trip impacted her outcome on the day. Trip will be key here especially as Hughes will be back aboard though should see price compensation given the running lines and finishing positions from how she appears “on paper.”

#9 FREEDOM ATTACK also could fly under the radar in this race. She will make her first start for the claiming tag, the right move at this point and also the first start on the turf. From her visuals going back to last summer she presented as a runner that could handle the turf and while it is often a mistake to compare off-track efforts to the turf (completely different animals) one of her more competitive races was over the sloppy track here in March.

Those two should offer value (and will still require a top effort) with #7 BE MY BESTIE for Rivelli and #6 GO ON GIRL (former Rivelli – in capable hands now with Hugo Rodriguez) in the field as a pair that have recorded some of the higher speed figures in the group. As far as BE MY BESTIE as she projects to be favored once again, despite the outside draw on May 25^th, Centeno was able to establish position and create a near perfect, pocket trip for her and was just out gamed by the winner, though noting that those two were clear of the rest. Be My Bestie will likely look for a similar trip and to track off the pacesetters to which GO ON GIRL expects to be one of those front running types to try and catch. 

Despite the “Fire” Contention (more than half of the field in Quad I) there is still a lower SpeedRate, the entire field below the ParLine, to upgrade #6 TWO WORLDS as the lone Quad I Square. That pace advantage could be key along with some separation as #7 TRY TRY AGAIN and #4 SHACKLEFORD STRONG should take up a stalking trip and look for first run on any tiring rivals from the early Contention.

#3 ANDREW THE GIANT is much deeper in Quad IV and trip will be crucial in addition to pace not allowing this horse to get too detached from the group in order to compete. His form should have him flying under the radar in this race, buried in the recent running lines, though is in the right spot of his form cycle with intent coming from the class/surface and distance changes to compete in this race. 

#1 LEA RO is upgraded from the group returning from the June 1^st common race. She should be able to hold her form coming back in the second start off the layoff and from a subtle trip (TRAFFIC, TROUBLE) keeping her further off the pace early. She should be able to find a more favorable trip today given the complexion of this field and flight addition of ground. #2 JOURNEYIST also returns from the June 1^st race though must improve as well as show a bit more stamina noting the PERFECT trip with the place result; while #6 KINGSBURY DREAM can be upgraded making a WIDE MOVE and capable of taking a step forward in her second start off the layoff. #7 AALIYAH EZRI did not run on June 1^st though was intended for that race unable to draw in off the AE. Number wise she fits with this group, though like Journeyist is another that will be tested for stamina.

The biggest threat in this race could appear from the “new face” in #5 I OWE UNCLE MO as she makes just her second start coming off the debut maiden win. She made a positive physical appearance in the paddock and on the track even suggesting she should handle any surface and the ROUTER of ground. 

The finale is a real “horse race” with the presence of #3 MOMENT and #7 GUN RUSH in this race. Both horses come into this race off a series of wins and share a similar RunStyle where both project to be going at each other on the lead right from the start. Those two should be kept honest with #8 BOUBON DELIGHT in the field and even #5 COMFORT ME NOW (above the ParLine) playing a role in today’s SpeedRate.

#2 DRIVEN ONE could also be involved early (Quad I) with back numbers and class that make him competitive on his best day and despite the COLD barn, he has been able to hold his form (B- OptixGRADE) in his races here this season and could land himself the win in the right time and place.

The Contention can also upgrade #6 PINEDALE as well as his current form earning a B- OptixGRADE under similar conditions on June 1^st. The trip and rider TACTIC- were not ideal and that is noted as Cristel comes back for this race making a change with Giles taking over. #4 JEFF THE LION requires returning to a top effort, though also has form from his races this season and back class with a win under similar conditions here back in 2021, just before his long layoff.  

Happy turf day at Hawthorne! Four races on the grass on Wednesday as we have the final two days in lane two before the rail gets moved to a fresh lane one for Hawthorne Derby week. Have to figure the majority will go to 7-BEYOND PROPER as she has back class and runs for a barn with a great turf record. I expect she will be tough but will also be very short. Coming off the layoff I'm willing to see if we can find one to upset. 5-MIZZEN ASH comes in from Indiana for this spot as she has been sharp in her last two starts. She won at this distance last out and figures to settle just off the pace and rally late. 6-GOOD MONGOLIA wouldn't surprise me if she shows a little early pace in this race. She steps up off a big race at 5 1/2 last out and may look to try to sneak away on the front end today.

Two in here from the barn of Huge Rodriguez as both are in with a shot. Figure 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE gets sent for the top as he wired a similar field back in mid-April. There's no others in here to truly challenge early. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE has been consistent throughout the meet and ran on to a nice win last out. He's likely to rate back a bit early but has shown he can sustain a lengthy bid if he has to be asked into the turn. 5-WHERE'D THE DAY GO may tuck in just behind the leader as I'm sure he won't want to challenged the stablemate in here. He ran well in his second start off the claim and may sneak off at a decent price.

A perfect spot for trainer Gary Scherer to ship 4-JUST BLAZE back from Minnesota as the Illinois-bred finds a turf field that isn't overly tough. He was a good winner while facing open claiming company on the grass last out as he should get a good stalking trip in here. 5-COMING UP ACES will likely welcome the return to the turf as he ran some grass races last summer that would make him very tough in here. He has some tactical speed and shouldn't be too far back at any point. 7-KINGSBURY ATTACK is likely to rate and rally in the lane. He ran good races while also facing open company on the grass in his last two. This is a good time for him to shift to the state-bred ranks as well.

Feel like there's a decent amount of pace in this race, which should benefit 4-BEG BORROW N STEAL as she runs for the tag today. She was entered for the Allowance last week but that was a quick turnaround and a tough bunch. She figures prominently in here as she gets a bit more time between starts and has run her best races over the Hawthorne dirt. 3-PALACE MAGIC races for new daddy Chris Banks (Congrats!!!!) as she looks to be a good claim for the $5k. She ran a better than looks on paper race against allowance runners last out and is another that should get a great trip in here from just off the pace. 6-KITTY MACLEAN is the second Granitz runner to ship in from Indiana as she has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She comes in off a recent bullet drill and looks well intended in here.

A turf sprint with a good amount of early pace. The pace could hook up and possibly compromise one another or it may work out that both run on. 7-BE MY BESTIE looks to be the toughest in here off a good second from the outside draw while facing similar last out. She has speed but doesn't need the top to win. Hoping she stalks and rallies late. Thinking 2-SECRET OPERATION will be the one to rally in the lane if the pace is swift and contested upfront. She gets a good inside draw and comes out of a spot where she encountered some trouble but still had late run when clear. 6-GO ON GIRL could be the fastest to the front. She battled every step of the way in her last and didn't give in until the final 16th. Thinking she could clear in here and play a game of catch me if you can.

A good starter bunch with what looks to be a decent amount of early pace as well. Trainer Joel Zawitz has had an excellent meet and sends out 7-TRY TRY AGAIN in here. He's posted a couple of starter victories on the meet and has been good over the track and at the distance. Have to think he tucks in early, saves ground, and rallies in the lane. 6-TWO WORLDS has tactical speed as he comes off a game effort in Indiana in his last. He raced into a little bit of trouble in that spot in the turn but recovered to close some in the lane. Let's see how close to the pace he is today. 4-SHACKLEFORD STRONG is another with tactical speed as he comes in off a near miss against Try Try Again last time out. He has also been solid over this track and has a race progression that should be pointing him toward a top performance.

This race looks tougher to me than just saying 3-MOMENT is going to win. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe Moment is just that good. He does love this track and has only lost once at Hawthorne. But he also faces a lot of pace in this race, so we will find out how gutsy he is. I'm going to look to 6-PINEDALE as he looks to bounce back off a bit of a disappointing effort at this level last out. He was bet heavily in that spot, coming off a big allowance score the start prior but with the value potential in here you have to think he could pull off the upset at a price. 7-GUN RUSH is a very solid racehorse in his own right. He has won all three starts over the track and done so in impressive fashion. The question in here is if he chooses to hook up with Moment early on or not.

5-MIZZEN ASH might stage a mild surprise. She’s been running competitively in Indiana and she has two victories at this long sprint/short route distance. She won her last as the even-money favorite, Might be able to do it again but this time at a square price. 7-BEYOND PROPER makes her first start in seven months but she’s had 16 drills in preparation and many of her recent works have been bullets. Surprisingly, she has only one turf victory to her credit but she usually met tougher than she faces today. 6-GOOD MONGOLIA is another who won last that is likely to be a price today. She’s moving up in class but it seems likely that she’ll secure a pretty easy lead. Might wire them.

Short fields don’t help pace scenarios very much but they can certainly help lone speed runners. 5-WHERE’S THE DAY GO should have little competition on the front end. The cause could be helped by the switch to the apprentice with his weight allowance. Guessing they’ll be in control throughout. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE could have his chances compromised by the relative lack of speed ahead of him but he’s been in good form all meet, finishing in the money in all five starts this year, and he will do his best to come on late. 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE wired the field two races back and he often displays speed on the main track. However, he doesn’t seem to be nearly as quick as top choice. Might be chasing that rivals all the way around.

4-JUST BLAZE, fresh off a good second-place finish in Minnesota, could be tough. With 11 turf victories to his credit, he has almost double the wins of the rest of the field combined. He doesn’t own much speed but there should be plenty of pace ahead of him. 3-VITALE is another coming off a good second in open company but he did that on this track. He could be on the lead quickly and the cut back in distance could be just what the doctor ordered. 5-COMING UP ACES hasn’t shown a lot so far this year but he has had some competitive turf races in the past. Might awaken.

Four of the six runners in this race could be vying for the lead and another seems like she’s in too deep. That leaves 4-BEG BORROW N STEAL. This late runner should get a near ideal pace ahead of her. Can come flying late to take it. 6-KITTY MACLEAN has been much improved this year after three dull races in 2022. She won both of her 2023 starts; one on the lead and the other from right off the pace. Guessing she’ll be right there from start to finish. 5-MISS MELODY finished up the track in her last few allowance races but she also won the last three times she ran for a tag. She has won both on the lead and from off the pace. Figures prominently.

7-BE MY BESTIE seems likely to score at a short price. She just missed after taking a late lead in her turf debut. This race is a sixteenth farther but she’s both racing with turf experience and she faces what appears to be a far easier field at the same level. 6-GO ON GIRL finished five lengths behind top choice in last but she battled for the lead from the start until she finally ran out of gas. Could have a bit easier time getting to the lead today. That could make a big difference in the end. 2-SECRET OPERATION comes out of the same race as the top pair and she finished fourth that day. Like the other two, that was her turf debut. She had some traffic woes on the backstretch that might have inhibited a better placing. Deserves another chance.

7-TRY TRY AGAIN might have barely won his last start at this level but think he has a good chance to repeat. This stalker got up just in time in that five and a half furlong race but this race is six furlongs and six of his eight victories were scored at six panels. As usual, he’s likely to be running right off the pace. Can edge by in midstretch and maybe extend his lead to the wire. 6-TWO WORLDS has gotten good lately. He won three of his five starts this year while finishing second in the other two. He might be a bit quicker than top choice but he’s also capable of finishing strong. 1-TIMEHASCOME could be in a little tough but considering he won four of his last five starts and was barely beaten in the other, he deserves the chance.

5-I OWE UNCLE MO makes her turf debut while making only her second career start. However, she was entered for turf in her first start only to have the race moved to the main track. Has a great turf pedigree and won her lone race by daylight under a hand ride. Might be a good one. 4-WANDA STRONG, under pilot Victor Santiago, absolutely flew late to capture the victory in last. That race was against Illinois breds but she has run well and beaten open company in the past. This field could be tougher than the one she just beat but she should be given the benefit of the doubt. 2-JOURNEYIST was nipped late in last. She deserves plenty of attention after that effort but she seemed tired in her last two route races and this race is a sixteenth farther than last. That could take its toll. 

Great race. 3-MOMENT, riding a four-race win streak and scoring in five of last six, will try to score another front-running victory. However, 7-GUN RUSH says “Not so fast, buddy”. Gun Rush won his last three by daylight and sports a similar running style and similar speed figures. They could leave the rest of the field far behind and fight it out to the last inch. Or they could be wiped out from duel and set things up for a runner like 6-PINEDALE who will be poised to attack late.