Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 IZZY’S MONSTER did not have any issue with the grass but the distance and class level change for today’s race move her up against the competition. She is suited to the two-turn (ROUTER) distance showing those visuals here back in October at the Special Weight level. She returns to make her second start for the claiming tag and second start off the layoff returning from a TROUBLE trip on May 25^th from the start taking contact by a rank rival and despite the running line and finishing position still showed a solid late CLOSE.

#6 PRETTY IN PRADO has come up short without excuse and that includes when able to establish a favorable lead and trip forwardly placed. She does come back for this race in a positive swing in her form cycle and projects to sit on another one of her top efforts. There is not much value in the top two choices for this race – considering IZZY’S MONSTER being logical as the favorite. #2 LIL CARRIE D could present slightly more value and should also find herself in the right spot to return to a top effort. This will be just her second start on the main track, around two-turns when in for the maiden claiming tag; the right level for her to compete. She ran under these conditions back on May 14^th and WIDE up close to a Fast early pace and can be upgraded from that effort as well as the June 4^th turf start when taken hold and not asked (TACTIC-) for run. 

Another logical favorite with #3 LAND MARK DEAL returning in this spot for Block. He found himself at the right level with the win here on June 1^st, a race that might have been a “prep” for more ground though still found the right pace and trip to win. He should be able to hold his form for this race, keying off his consistent form on this circuit, coming back today with the added ground. The pace should be honest with four E/EP type runners in this field, many coming out of sprint races “confusing” the OptixPLOT with the “Red” PlotFit. #2 LAVENDER EARL should be considered off his form (OptixNOTES/GRADES/FIG) over the Plot position which has him position in Quad III as a Circle. His form cycle should have him sitting on a top effort today and some intent with the rider change to Hernandez His turf record consists of just four races on the grass with his most competitive race a third place with 87 OptixFIG earned at this level, course, and distance last June. 

The class of this race sits with #2 KANT BELIEVE IT the most established runner in this field and could hold a maturity edge over the sophomores in the field. She struggled to get the win this year at Oaklawn Park, though held her form with the consistent efforts and recorded OptixFIG, all fit in this race.

Rivelli will send out a pair including #3 MOVE IT BABY one that was scratched from a $25k claiming race last week. The scratch could have been to enter here and make this race fill for stablemate, #5 SPECIALIZIN as she returns to make her second start of the season. As far as the April 2^nd race, she can be upgraded as part of the fast (X_FLOW) duel that assisted the stalking winner, Flamand – one that went on to win a $75k claiming race at Keeneland three weeks later and just finish third in the Monomoy Girl stakes last Saturday at Ellis Park.

Looking at OptixPLOT there is a higher concentration of runners above the ParLine (40 SpeedRate) and surrounding Quad I (Sun Contention) to suggest #4 BACKSTAGE BAMBI could get into the number sitting the trip stalking that group from just off the pace. 

#2 ICE BLAST takes a significant drop in class to run in this spot, a move that appears to assist the barn to get a win and also likely to move on from this barn as getting claimed at this level is highly likely. His form here this season has not been as strong as the races/figures from Oaklawn Park though can be given some consideration with the WIDE trip on the turf (+ COLD barn) in May followed up by a complete EX – EXCUSE on June 4^th – the OptixNOTE shown in the Past 3 Runlines and was much more going on that the “trailed, no bid” short comment in the past performances.

The connections for #3 FLYING SAMURAI racing on this circuit make sense despite being eligible to run in the statebred races at HS Indy. His form fits at this level and with the increase in purse makes the circuit switch a lateral move. In addition to class, he looks well spotted in this race with the added ground stretching out in his second start back off the layoff. The same upgrade in form cycle/distance extends to #6 MISTER CHARMING, the two coming back from the June 4^th common race. The pace should be honest for these two to work a stalking trip. The early pace should be honest noting the 67 SpeedRate and more than half of the field, including #4 MOVE ON OVER and #5 RICHIESONAROLL above the ParLine.  

The presence of the Ward trained #2 DREAM FLY and #5 PATIENCE WORTH in this race should allow for value on the two Block trainees making their return in this event. As far as DREAM FLY there Is not a since race she has run that makes her a strong contender and an easy favorite to take on should she inherit that role. There is much more form with PATIENCE WORTH of the pair to lean on. The shift to the turf is less of a concern with the main concern finishing ability as she tends to give up ground late without excuse.

#3 I’M BOX OFFICE earned a follow with a sneaky good debut effort (B- OptixGRADE) showing a middle MOVE and late CLOSE while still GREEN. She moves up in the second start earning a follow (IMPROVE) as the trip was compromised with the draw, the WIDE trip with the rider unable to overcome and still showed the same strong late CLOSE. There is much more to her ability that what appears on paper.

#4 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE was looking for turf all along going back to the placement and scratch when the races were taken off the turf on October 15^th. The season and lack of turf racing forced her to run on the main track here in December, a race that looked to be only a prep. She spent the first part of the year at Tampa and was entered and scratched (this time vet) when the races came off the grass on January 14^th. Again, she was entered for grass here on May 14^th and the connections passing that day waiting for another turf race to be carded. 

#6 NOTARY is tougher to take back today as the favorite despite running a B OptixGRADE at this level on June 1^st. Heading into that race, he fit and offered value flying under the radar and upgraded for the race shape. While capable, he does not hold the same pace edge and could even be taken as a downgrade here as a Quad II Circle.

#2 READTHECLIFFNOTES looked to need the start on June 1^st coming off a 125-day layoff and should move up with the fitness (WIDE trip) and intent in this second start for Boyce. #4 SILVER QUARTERS must show a little more to get the win, noting he has paired B- OptixGRADES at this level this season. The race shape can upgrade his running style and in terms of value has that shift from ROTARY and upgraded over #1 SOUL COAXING given his pairing of C+ OptixGRADES at this level.

#3 SPORT PEPPER could be the under the radar runner to step up today and compete. This will be just his second start as a four-year-old and had the challenge last week coming off a 452-day layoff. Visually he looked overmatched against that group and given the DROP? OptixNOTES Keyword. That could be some concern noting he is back at the same condition, however comparing the OFR from race-to-race today’s 88-82 OFR is lower (hidden drop) than the 95-87 assigned OFR on June 14^th.  

#4 KATHAAN has run well in every race to date and that includes the April 22^nd Keeneland race when earning a B- OptixGRADE. Her effort was upgraded making a move against (X_FLOW) the dynamic and is given the same X_FLOW upgrade coming back from the May 31^st race. The May race had the “Snowflake” Contention and KATHAAN should benefit from today’s “Sun” Contention with the Largest Square (closing kick) in the field.

Looking at the Quad I runners, #7 LET’S CRUISE is given the Surface/Distance upgrade shifting to a Square. There has been intention to run on the turf, a surface she returns to for just the second time in her career. Her lone turf race, the Romacaca Stakes, was a solid effort on the lead just getting run down late by #1 RUSSIAN MAFIA, one that projects to run from off the pace (Quad IV) here. As far as LET’S CRUISE she is one that needs not only a top effort but also trip, as she does not respond well to the stick/whip and has lost focus and her lead when the rider was forced to go right handed. 

#3 GO STORMIN GIRL had “buried” turf form giving her an upgrade on June 11^th and she ran to it with a BTL effort finishing together at the wire with the first run winner, Good Mongolia. Her main track/dirt form stacks up at this level and in with today’s group. The connections will come back on shorter rest for this race and could be intent with a rider change as Emigh takes over for a barn he does not often ride for.

#4 LUCY’S LOOKING LEFT was entered to run on June 11^th, though only with the surface switch entered as MTO and sat waiting for this race. That suggests intent by the connections and is back on this circuit and in a condition where she can compete. That is key as trip and pace (often rider tactic) is required with her running style. Santiago has been a key rider in the past picking up the December 11^th win and place finish on October 21^st. #7 SHEZ RECKLESS was also scratched (trainer) on June 11^th and projects to find a lot of attention here given the connections, though as a projected favorite appears to fall into underlay territory lacking an edge over others in this field.

Both of those runners, require pace to run at and the “Sun” Contention/43 SpeedRate should assist them with that early pace to target. #5 TRIP TO FREEDOM is part of the early pace and as the Large Quad I Circle is tough to support off those visuals, however when combining the recent OptixNOTES (NO_PUSH) playing a role in the “lack of finish” Circle shown today. Going back to the March 19^th race, that effort makes her competitive and could cycle back to that race noting some REGRESS? was expected and the connections also returned with the class rise to allowance company where she was overmatched. 

Curious to see how things unfold in here as the is not a ton of early pace in the race. Hoping 6-PRETTY IN PRADO is able to make the top and catch and early breather. She has run well in some starts around two turns and may benefit from the return to dirt. She does her best running while on the front end so expect her to get sent away today. 5-IZZY'S MONSTER is going to take the action at the windows in here. She drops off a respectable turf try in her last and has had some two turn dirt success. The only concern in here is the lack of early pace to chase as she figures to sit back and look to make one run in the lane. 3-SHE APPEALS HOLY is one of two Weir horses in here as she could benefit from the right trip if the other Weir, 1-HOLY STAR gets sent away to challenge for the lead. It has been some time since She Appeals Holy has run but she is working every week and looks to be fit and ready for this spot. If the pace is swift upfront, expect her to come running at them in the lane.

Solid turf race to start the card as 3-LAND MARK DEAL will be tough as a likely heavy favorite. The distance is the only question for me with that one at a short price as I'll give the nod to 1-SIERRA HOTEL. He steps up in his second start of the meet but does so off a fine score in his last. Distance doesn't seem to matter to him as he should be sitting just off the early pace and figures to get the jump on the closers in the lane. 3-LAND MARK DEAL has found the board in 8 of 21 turf starts, often times while facing tougher than he will see today. He was an impressive winner in a turf sprint last out but will need some pace to close into at the longer distance today. 2-LAVENDER EARL could be a sleeper in here if no others go for the top. The last time he was on the turf was while facing much tougher in Indiana last summer. His dirt race two back was strong though and he may look to try to steal this one.

Only five in this race but for a condition that is very tough to see filled nowadays it is a quality field. The leader of this group has to be 2-KANT BELIEVE IT as she makes her first start since the Oaklawn meet in March. She ran a good race in her last, chasing the pace and battling to a third place finish. The top two from that race both came back to win their next start out. She has consistent works over the track and just needs to avoid getting into a pace battle. 5-SPECIALIZIN is one of two Rivelli runners in this race but appears to be the more proven of the two on dirt. She has good early speed. The question is if she will have any company upfront. 1-MAGNA MASSA finished just behind Specializin when the two last met at Hawthorne. Since then she has made a pair of starts in Kentucky, most recently running a solid second while battling the entire way. Let's see what type of a trip she gets from the inside today.

The class drop may be all that 2-ICE BLAST needs in here as he comes out of a tough race in his last. He should get more than enough pace to chase as I expect he rallies in the lane. 6-MISTER CHARMING is another that should benefit from a decent pace upfront. His best success has come at Hawthorne as he's another that figures to improve with the class relief. 4-MOVE ON OVER wired a field around two turns two races back against open claimers. He's in for the conditioned tag today as he may be sent away from the top once again. The question is if he has any company or not.

A couple of talented young shippers come in as 5-PATIENCE WORTH and 2-DREAM FLY both head North from Kentucky for this race. 5-PATIENCE WORTH tries the turf for the first time but has the advantage of being able to show speed around two turns. She posted three consecutive runner-up efforts at Tampa this spring before a recent Keeneland sprint. Expect her to try to make the top and never look back. 3-I'M BOX OFFICE made a pair of grass starts in Indiana last summer, closing up some ground in each. She's a lightly raced 4yo who has been working consistently toward her return. With the pair from Kentucky in here, she may sneak off at a bit of a price. 2-DREAM FLY has battled some gate issues in her career but also comes in with the best recent figure of any in this race. The connections are formidable as well as she returns off a string of works at Keeneland.

Another very talented field to go two turns. Thinking 2-READTHECLIFFNOTES may have needed the last race as he chased into the lane but didn't run on as strongly as he typically does. That race was off a five month layoff so expect better in here. I would have to think we see a little more early speed from him as well. 6-NOTARY ran a big race at this level last out and looks to be a deserving favorite. He rated just off the pace and was closing ground in the lane. A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat today. 4-SILVER QUARTERS will need some pace to chase. He picked up the pieces late in his last, which was a solid third start at this level on the meet. Let's see if he tries to sit a bit closer early and can close ground late.

Another race where I expect a good amount of early pace to chase. 4-LUCY'S LOOKIN LEFT took action in her last at Keeneland but may have been in a bit tough. Her prior two starts at Hawthorne were solid as she rallied late while facing better. If the pace is contested upfront, expect to see her closing quickly in the lane. 7-SHEZ RECKLESS has tactical speed but may be at her best if she rates off the pace in here. She was claimed back into this barn off her last start and likes this Hawthorne strip. 5-TRIP TO FREEDOM returns from Iowa as she ran a big race here in March. The Tracy barn was having a great meet before shipping to Prairie Meadows for the summer but we are seeing some runners return in well intended spots.

5-IZZY’S MONSTER drops one more time. Her best race so far was her lone dirt route race. She finished second in that spot. Figures to do better in this one. 6-PRETTY IN PRADO is likely to be joined on the front end with a couple rivals but she has shown sustained speed at times. She finished in the money in three of her four route races and seems likely to continue that trend. 4-BUNNY SHINE might be the quickest of these. She showed little sprinting in her lone start but she figures to be quicker from the gate than most in here with the stretch in distance. Makes her first start for this barn after getting claimed. Could be competitive.

3-LAND MARK DEAL figures to be the one to beat. He was a fairly easy winner of his last at this level. He’s not likely to get the blistering pace ahead of him to set up for his late run so he’ll have to do it all on his own. But the extra distance of this race could work in his favor since he has had previous success in route-type races. 1-SIERRA HOTEL moves up in class but with seven turf victories, he does know how to win. Six of those victories were at seven and a half or longer. Guessing he’ll handle the class hike. 5-STAR OF KODIAK seems like the main competition. His eight turf wins are the best in the field. However, all but one of those victories were in short turf sprints. He might not be successful in this race that’s about an eighth of a mile longer. 

2-KANT BELIEVE IT looks like a standout in this short field. This stakes-placed runner has been racing competitively in allowance races carrying purses of over $100k in Kentucky and Arkansas and her worst speed figures are considerably higher than the best of most of her rivals. 5-SPECIALIZIN could vie for the lead. She was claimed from her maiden victory and finished second in her lone start for this barn. The winner of that race came right back to win, suggesting this filly’s effort was strong. 3-MOVE IT BABY, stablemate of Specializin, races on dirt for the first time. Like her stablemate, she has plenty of early zip. Wouldn’t be surprised if she tried for the lead.

Not crazy about selecting runners off a big drop but FOR 2-ICE BLAST, the drop makes sense. He was claimed for $30k in his last start of 2022 and it was nearly five months before he made his first start for his new barn. He hasn’t been showing much versus better but even his recent speed figures suggest that he’s among the fastest of these. 5-RICHIESONAROLL won his last two in Florida, wiring the field in one of those races but coming from off the pace in the other. He’s another “dropping”, after winning a starter but he’s making his first start in four months and he’s had only one drill in nearly six weeks. 3-FLYING SAMURAI’s last race was just a tune up. He was making his first start since November and he returned in a sprint. He’s been pretty much a router from the start. Expect an upgraded performance at a great price with the stretch out.

5-PATIENCE WORTH has surprisingly never run on turf but her connections excel with turf runners and she’s certainly bred to love the lawn. Good natural speed should have her forwardly placed from the start. The winners of her previous two route races came right back to win their next starts. Maybe this turf route will be exactly what she needs. 2-DREAM FLY will draw the most attention and might deserve it. She raced at Keeneland, Belmont, Belterra and Kentucky Downs. However, her seemingly lackluster finish at Kentucky Downs might have been her best race. She’s been off since September but her regular drills will have her ready for a barn that knows how to win off layoffs. 3-I’M BOX OFFICE is another returning from a long layoff but another that runs for a barn that brings them back ready. She split the fields in her only two starts but could be prepared to do far better today.

He didn’t run all that well in last bhut have to stick with 2-READTHECLIFFNOTES. This 8-year-old has been too successful here (9 wins from 14 local starts) in the past to be ignored. He probably needed that last race since he was running for the first time since January. Will have to give him the benefit of the doubt. 6-NOTARY finished about eight lengths ahead of top choice in that last start and did it in his first trip over this track. Not sure this late runner will get the needed pace ahead of him but, after last, he’s likely the one they have to beat. 3-SPORT PEPPER never got out of last in his most recent start but he was making his first start in about 15 months and he came back in a sprint. Stretches to a better distance for him today. If he fires, he could be the first one from the gate and never look back.

4-KATHANN can run by them all. With the exception of a tough allowance at Keeneland, this filly has been first or second in all her races. She just missed to the very tough Katie M’Lady in her first start of the meet. Faces another tough field but think she’ll be the best of them. 5-CAT ATTACK is back on her best surface for the first time since October. Meets many with speed but might be able to put them away and finish with something left. 6-MORRIE’S JOY, 3-MY LIPS ARE SEALED and 1-RUSSIAN MAFIA will all be flying late.

4-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT is back from Keeneland. She’ll also be racing without blinkers after a one-race experiment with them. Not sure if her dull Kentucky effort was because of the blinkers or that she was facing better but she’s back to the track where she scored three of her four career wins and she comes back at the right level. 7-SHEZ RECKLESS was claimed back by this barn after they lost her via claim about a year ago. She showed little in her turf debut in last, the race from which she was claimed, but had been running well when at the right levels on dirt in prior contests. Should show far more now that she’s back on the right surface. 5-TRIP TO FREEDOM drops. She’s been running out of gas versus better but she could be the quickest and could maintain her speed longer at this level.

T 7 Hot Flash Kimmy 6 Southwind Cerveza 5 Cardio Muscle

T 3 Northern Magenta 4 Sweet Carrie T 7 Valle Doree

P 1 Ocassionally Sharp 2 Ladysmith 3 Deadly Delight

T 3 Northern Demi 7 Angel Of My Dreams 4 No Turning Back

P 9 Dance With Tabby 1 Kuper Trooper 6 Moonlit Affair

T 3 Times Like These 6 Patrick Rule 7 Dealers Delite

P 8 Ahoy 4 Beyond The Sea 5 Stonebridge Drama

P 5 Caughtyoupeaking 4 Warrawee Yoko 2 Treasures Watching

T 6 Villefranche As 2 Awsome Paul 4 Rosies War Bonds

P 9 The Ideal Huntress 8 Baby Bonita 7 Manhattan Night