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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed June 21st, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Mizzen Ash - 7/2 6 Good Mongolia - 5/1 7 Beyond Proper - 7/5

Happy turf day at Hawthorne! Four races on the grass on Wednesday as we have the final two days in lane two before the rail gets moved to a fresh lane one for Hawthorne Derby week. Have to figure the majority will go to 7-BEYOND PROPER as she has back class and runs for a barn with a great turf record. I expect she will be tough but will also be very short. Coming off the layoff I'm willing to see if we can find one to upset. 5-MIZZEN ASH comes in from Indiana for this spot as she has been sharp in her last two starts. She won at this distance last out and figures to settle just off the pace and rally late. 6-GOOD MONGOLIA wouldn't surprise me if she shows a little early pace in this race. She steps up off a big race at 5 1/2 last out and may look to try to sneak away on the front end today.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Midnight Blue Note - 8/5 2 Not Very Gentle - 7/2 5 Where'd the Day Go - 5/2

Two in here from the barn of Huge Rodriguez as both are in with a shot. Figure 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE gets sent for the top as he wired a similar field back in mid-April. There's no others in here to truly challenge early. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE has been consistent throughout the meet and ran on to a nice win last out. He's likely to rate back a bit early but has shown he can sustain a lengthy bid if he has to be asked into the turn. 5-WHERE'D THE DAY GO may tuck in just behind the leader as I'm sure he won't want to challenged the stablemate in here. He ran well in his second start off the claim and may sneak off at a decent price.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Just Blaze - 9/5 5 Coming Up Aces - 5/1 7 Kingsburry Attack - 6/1

A perfect spot for trainer Gary Scherer to ship 4-JUST BLAZE back from Minnesota as the Illinois-bred finds a turf field that isn't overly tough. He was a good winner while facing open claiming company on the grass last out as he should get a good stalking trip in here. 5-COMING UP ACES will likely welcome the return to the turf as he ran some grass races last summer that would make him very tough in here. He has some tactical speed and shouldn't be too far back at any point. 7-KINGSBURY ATTACK is likely to rate and rally in the lane. He ran good races while also facing open company on the grass in his last two. This is a good time for him to shift to the state-bred ranks as well.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Beg Borrow N Steal - 7/2 3 Palace Magic - 9/2 6 Kitty Maclean - 5/2

Feel like there's a decent amount of pace in this race, which should benefit 4-BEG BORROW N STEAL as she runs for the tag today. She was entered for the Allowance last week but that was a quick turnaround and a tough bunch. She figures prominently in here as she gets a bit more time between starts and has run her best races over the Hawthorne dirt. 3-PALACE MAGIC races for new daddy Chris Banks (Congrats!!!!) as she looks to be a good claim for the $5k. She ran a better than looks on paper race against allowance runners last out and is another that should get a great trip in here from just off the pace. 6-KITTY MACLEAN is the second Granitz runner to ship in from Indiana as she has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She comes in off a recent bullet drill and looks well intended in here.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Be My Bestie - 9/5 2 Secret Operation - 5/1 6 Go On Girl - 9/2

A turf sprint with a good amount of early pace. The pace could hook up and possibly compromise one another or it may work out that both run on. 7-BE MY BESTIE looks to be the toughest in here off a good second from the outside draw while facing similar last out. She has speed but doesn't need the top to win. Hoping she stalks and rallies late. Thinking 2-SECRET OPERATION will be the one to rally in the lane if the pace is swift and contested upfront. She gets a good inside draw and comes out of a spot where she encountered some trouble but still had late run when clear. 6-GO ON GIRL could be the fastest to the front. She battled every step of the way in her last and didn't give in until the final 16th. Thinking she could clear in here and play a game of catch me if you can.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Try Try Again - 7/2 6 Two Worlds - 2/1 4 Shackleford Strong - 9/2

A good starter bunch with what looks to be a decent amount of early pace as well. Trainer Joel Zawitz has had an excellent meet and sends out 7-TRY TRY AGAIN in here. He's posted a couple of starter victories on the meet and has been good over the track and at the distance. Have to think he tucks in early, saves ground, and rallies in the lane. 6-TWO WORLDS has tactical speed as he comes off a game effort in Indiana in his last. He raced into a little bit of trouble in that spot in the turn but recovered to close some in the lane. Let's see how close to the pace he is today. 4-SHACKLEFORD STRONG is another with tactical speed as he comes in off a near miss against Try Try Again last time out. He has also been solid over this track and has a race progression that should be pointing him toward a top performance.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Pinedale - 5/1 3 Moment - 5/2 7 Gun Rush - 9/2

This race looks tougher to me than just saying 3-MOMENT is going to win. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe Moment is just that good. He does love this track and has only lost once at Hawthorne. But he also faces a lot of pace in this race, so we will find out how gutsy he is. I'm going to look to 6-PINEDALE as he looks to bounce back off a bit of a disappointing effort at this level last out. He was bet heavily in that spot, coming off a big allowance score the start prior but with the value potential in here you have to think he could pull off the upset at a price. 7-GUN RUSH is a very solid racehorse in his own right. He has won all three starts over the track and done so in impressive fashion. The question in here is if he chooses to hook up with Moment early on or not.