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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed June 21st, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Mizzen Ash - 7/2 7 Beyond Proper - 7/5 6 Good Mongolia - 5/1

5-MIZZEN ASH might stage a mild surprise. She’s been running competitively in Indiana and she has two victories at this long sprint/short route distance. She won her last as the even-money favorite, Might be able to do it again but this time at a square price. 7-BEYOND PROPER makes her first start in seven months but she’s had 16 drills in preparation and many of her recent works have been bullets. Surprisingly, she has only one turf victory to her credit but she usually met tougher than she faces today. 6-GOOD MONGOLIA is another who won last that is likely to be a price today. She’s moving up in class but it seems likely that she’ll secure a pretty easy lead. Might wire them.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Where'd the Day Go - 5/2 2 Not Very Gentle - 7/2 1 Midnight Blue Note - 8/5

Short fields don’t help pace scenarios very much but they can certainly help lone speed runners. 5-WHERE’S THE DAY GO should have little competition on the front end. The cause could be helped by the switch to the apprentice with his weight allowance. Guessing they’ll be in control throughout. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE could have his chances compromised by the relative lack of speed ahead of him but he’s been in good form all meet, finishing in the money in all five starts this year, and he will do his best to come on late. 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE wired the field two races back and he often displays speed on the main track. However, he doesn’t seem to be nearly as quick as top choice. Might be chasing that rivals all the way around.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Just Blaze - 9/5 3 Vitale - 5/2 5 Coming Up Aces - 5/1

4-JUST BLAZE, fresh off a good second-place finish in Minnesota, could be tough. With 11 turf victories to his credit, he has almost double the wins of the rest of the field combined. He doesn’t own much speed but there should be plenty of pace ahead of him. 3-VITALE is another coming off a good second in open company but he did that on this track. He could be on the lead quickly and the cut back in distance could be just what the doctor ordered. 5-COMING UP ACES hasn’t shown a lot so far this year but he has had some competitive turf races in the past. Might awaken.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Beg Borrow N Steal - 7/2 6 Kitty Maclean - 5/2 5 Miss Melody - 3/1

Four of the six runners in this race could be vying for the lead and another seems like she’s in too deep. That leaves 4-BEG BORROW N STEAL. This late runner should get a near ideal pace ahead of her. Can come flying late to take it. 6-KITTY MACLEAN has been much improved this year after three dull races in 2022. She won both of her 2023 starts; one on the lead and the other from right off the pace. Guessing she’ll be right there from start to finish. 5-MISS MELODY finished up the track in her last few allowance races but she also won the last three times she ran for a tag. She has won both on the lead and from off the pace. Figures prominently.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Be My Bestie - 9/5 6 Go On Girl - 9/2 2 Secret Operation - 5/1

7-BE MY BESTIE seems likely to score at a short price. She just missed after taking a late lead in her turf debut. This race is a sixteenth farther but she’s both racing with turf experience and she faces what appears to be a far easier field at the same level. 6-GO ON GIRL finished five lengths behind top choice in last but she battled for the lead from the start until she finally ran out of gas. Could have a bit easier time getting to the lead today. That could make a big difference in the end. 2-SECRET OPERATION comes out of the same race as the top pair and she finished fourth that day. Like the other two, that was her turf debut. She had some traffic woes on the backstretch that might have inhibited a better placing. Deserves another chance.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Try Try Again - 7/2 6 Two Worlds - 2/1 1 Timehascome - 8/1

7-TRY TRY AGAIN might have barely won his last start at this level but think he has a good chance to repeat. This stalker got up just in time in that five and a half furlong race but this race is six furlongs and six of his eight victories were scored at six panels. As usual, he’s likely to be running right off the pace. Can edge by in midstretch and maybe extend his lead to the wire. 6-TWO WORLDS has gotten good lately. He won three of his five starts this year while finishing second in the other two. He might be a bit quicker than top choice but he’s also capable of finishing strong. 1-TIMEHASCOME could be in a little tough but considering he won four of his last five starts and was barely beaten in the other, he deserves the chance.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 I Owe Uncle Mo - 5/1 4 Wanda Strong - 9/2 2 Journeyist - 3/1

5-I OWE UNCLE MO makes her turf debut while making only her second career start. However, she was entered for turf in her first start only to have the race moved to the main track. Has a great turf pedigree and won her lone race by daylight under a hand ride. Might be a good one. 4-WANDA STRONG, under pilot Victor Santiago, absolutely flew late to capture the victory in last. That race was against Illinois breds but she has run well and beaten open company in the past. This field could be tougher than the one she just beat but she should be given the benefit of the doubt. 2-JOURNEYIST was nipped late in last. She deserves plenty of attention after that effort but she seemed tired in her last two route races and this race is a sixteenth farther than last. That could take its toll. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Moment - 5/2 7 Gun Rush - 9/2 6 Pinedale - 5/1

Great race. 3-MOMENT, riding a four-race win streak and scoring in five of last six, will try to score another front-running victory. However, 7-GUN RUSH says “Not so fast, buddy”. Gun Rush won his last three by daylight and sports a similar running style and similar speed figures. They could leave the rest of the field far behind and fight it out to the last inch. Or they could be wiped out from duel and set things up for a runner like 6-PINEDALE who will be poised to attack late.