Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 LINDALOUIMAGE might have been “best” on June 13^th at Fan Duel making a WIDE MOVE finishing in a tight photo for the win. She will return to Hawthorne with the added ground with the STRETCH out to a route. She has form over this course and distance including a win at this condition back on November 6^th.

#5 COUGER is one of the more consistent types in this field she has finishing on the board in each start this year and under similar conditions to today’s event. That keeps her in the mix though must show more to get the win and could be favored off the recent finishing positions. #4 ZENCHUA SKY can be upgraded looking at OptixPLOT, however is softer number wise (same #3 C C’S WORLD) requiring price compensation – something that should be there coming off the recent 5^th place finish.

Trainer Brian Cook will send out a pair in this race: #2 SHADOW BELLE hold the edge on recency and even class coming out of higher conditioned races this year at Turfway and HS Indy. She will be tested again for stamina stretching out around two turns, though the class drop here should assist. As far as #1 INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU, she will give up recency returning from the 102-day layoff and must show she can translate her top figures earned on the turf/synth to the dirt. 

#2 CELESTIAL SPIN has had excuses in each start this year and that paired with back numbers on the turf could see her competitive in this race. The turf EX – EXCUSE had to do with poor rider TACTIC- and is noted a third rider change will be made here with Julio Felix taking over to suggest intent. The pace should be honest with front running and stretch out sprinters in this field to allow her the right trip from off the pace.

#1 GHAALEB’S DREAMS also had TROUBLE in her May 18^th return, the first start back off a 522-day layoff. Despite the TROUBLE (and SLOG) she showed run especially late making up ground in a solid CLOSE something that is tougher to see in the running line and fifth place finish alone.

The distance is the big unknown for #4 BALI BABY though outside of that she fits at this level, on the turf and with intent noting Quinonez has been looking for the right spot to run her including a turf allowance (trainer scratch) back on June 8^th. The added ground and even the shift back to turf should not be an issue for #3 MAYSTART making her return from the two-month break. She will give up some recency and a slight class rise from her races here this season, though has races on her best day that make her competitive. 

As far as current form #3 GALLANT BUCK could hold the edge, and a subtle one coming into this race. This will be his third start back off the layoff and showing progression race to race, including the “flow upgrade” close to the Very Fast early pace on June 7^th as they return to the claiming level.  As far as class and back numbers, #1 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR has that strong edge in this group. Excusing the turf start at Ellis Park and the 2022 finale on the Canterbury Park closing day card (followed up by a 284-day layoff) his speed figures (OptixFIG in the 80’s) stand out over this group.

The class change could also suit #6 BALADINE, looking to find the right group to get back on track. His form coming into this race is also buried with some subtle trouble in the allowance races this season and still recording consistent numbers that stack up with the others. 

#5 TWIRLING ROSES recorded a strong effort at this level with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. Despite the 5^th place result, he still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG, both factors making him a player right back under similar conditions. The running line and result could have him overlooked especially when paired with the running line and result from the May 28^th turf race. That running line is one to “put a line through” as he had a legit EX – EXCUSE  from the poor rider TACTIC- (noting a rider change today) to the TROUBLE that still saw him CLOSE late in hand (NO_PUSH) and continued to GALLOP+ out strong after the wire. 

#1 STORM’S REFLECTION earned a follow with the sneaky good (B- OptixGRADE) effort on May 18^th showing a lot of run given a TROUBLE+ trip and lacking ROOM at a crucial time in the race. He came back on June 7^th with another credible run and not without issues that day forced back (TROUBLE_S) into the first turn and made a MOVE into contention behind the pacesetting winner, Bruce Banner.

#6 LAWMAKER will make his first start in against winners, though has plenty of foundation and consistency on his side and those efforts stack up with the others in the field. His consistent figures, especially on the turf and around two-turns stack up on par and fits today’s race shape (and in line with Storm’s Reflection) as a strong Square above the ParLine in Quad II. 

Rivelli probably figured #4 GETTIN DOWN would be claimed when they dropped to the $6250k maiden level two weeks ago. She picked up the win in a dominant B+ OptixGRADE effort and makes sense they return on 13-days in this spot and similar claiming tag. Her former stablemate #3 LUNARCHY could present a threat as she also was able to score at the $6250k maiden level back on May 31^st earning a 71 OptixFIG one of the stronger numbers recorded in this group. She was claimed from that race and “protected” by Meraz running for the $25k tag on June 14^th and returns to a more reasonable spot for her abilities here.

Following the race day analysis throughout June, both #1 SEQUAYA and #6 BELLS OF JOY deserving of another mention today and similar commentary as runners that are tougher to trust on the win end, though the race shape (Fire/15 SpeedRate) should see them moving up (Quad II/IV) from off the pace late – and similar for #5 BUMPER GIRL. 

This is quite possible one of the more competitive races this season and an event where so many fit in the right spot to compete and clear the maiden condition. With that said, a case can be made for many and worth highlighting some runners that could be under the radar. Many will return from the June 7^th race and that should see the wagering attention fall on #3 MO TIME AT ALL finishing second that day. His effort was game and had the right strategy to use for position from the outside and just caught at the wire. Third place finisher, #7 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY recorded a BTL effort and B- OptixGRADE with the TROUBLE/TRAFFIC trip that had him CLOSE against the dynamic and continued a strong GALLOP+ after the wire. Longshot #11 NOBLE CREEKER projects to again take up that role given his connections, the 5^th place finish and dismissed off some prior running line. He made a positive physical appearance, PRERACE+ and showed run with a WIDE trip and late CLOSE earning a follow.

#2 MINING CAMP shows up here with the right changes and ones he has been looking for since his debut. Visually he presented as a TURF runner early on and also one that required the maiden claiming conditions, a pairing that he will find here for the first time in start number nine. Number wise he sits in line with #5 ELECTRIC CHARGE another that has shown his abilities and should appreciate the move back to maiden claiming company though must show more today and in this field to win and could be one of the shorter priced runners in the field.

As far as the lightly raced runners making he class/surface switch, #6 LARRY THE POET should benefit from those changes though given the connections, he should take action on that alone. #9 MARCHING ORDERS will make his TURF debut and has been crying out for the grass and should move up on the surface and deliver a top effort, and likely to sneak under the radar. 

#1 WILDWOOD’S SECRET could present a strong pace advantage (Quad I Square) in this race and that could become even stronger depending on where the connections decide to run #2 BOURBON TEDDY as he is cross entered for another race. WILDWOOD SECRET first returning to the main track, this claiming level and portion of his “every other” form cycle. Giles landing here could also be a tell as he was aboard #5 BORN AGAIN GEORGE for the win earlier this month and timing not as ideal for this horse coming back from the HARD effort 20-days ago.

The subtle change in class (and rider) suggests intent for #7 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER coming back today for Haran and another holding a positive form cycle pattern coming into this race. He is surrounded by other Quad IV Squares (#4 TRIPLE CHROME, #6 TAPIT SAM, #8 C F V RED NOVA and #9 IDEA MAN)  in this race that also fit though with that Plot position and the 5.5f distance, trip/pace is crucial for those runners on the win end.