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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu June 29th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The Mason barn should be trending in the right direction coming off a two-race win day last week and moves up #2 DRIVEN ONE in this spot. He has form coming in from his allowance races in May and from a physical standpoint should handle TURF and has back turf numbers that fit strongly at today’s claiming level/group.

The deep closing RunStyle (Quad II/IV) for #6 IOYA AGAIN has been his hurdle this season. Making that run from off the pace he has encountered TROUBLE and making his CLOSE late just left with too much to do. Similar can be said for #1 DYNABLUE has been holding his form and with some subtle trips keying off the TROUBLE on May 21st and inside/SAVED trip finishing behind the top two together at the wire on June 11th.

#3 FLY NIGHTLY was scheduled to run against some of today’s rival back on May 21st unable to draw in off the AE list and Vanden Berg opts for this spot rather than a $10k claiming race on June 7th at HS Indy. He returns to this Hawthorne turf course/distance the scene of his most recent win back in June of last year. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 HIGH BROW has some tactical speed and could sit the right trip in this compact field. Class wise he will find a subtle change and keying off the B OptixGRADE at this level on April 6th. As far as the pace, Winebaugh will send out #2 GAME BOY BENNY likely to set the pace stretching out in distance from the sprints, something that could assist stablemate #5 DANVILLE looking for back-to-back wins. #4 GLOBAL EMPIRE returns from the June 6th common race finishing behind DANVILLE, though did not have a favorable trip and returning with a rider change could be intent and in position to turn the tables. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 LOTTA ROSES has run by far some of the faster races of any in this field and those efforts make her the horse to beat. At the same time she has had “lotta” chances and turned in a solid B- OptixGRADE effort at this level on June 4th just met a better rival on the day. #5 TEXAS PRINCESS has perhaps the most upside coming into this race lightly raced with progressive figures. This will be her second start back off the layoff and projects to move forward off the subtle trip (TACTIC-) where she was held up early and ran on late when getting into the clear.

#4 SANGFROID started off her career on the grass and carries TURF visuals back to the grass for this race in the first time since those 2020 starts. She has the class rise to handle though has some back numbers that stack up with this field and is moving forward race-to-race in this third start off the layoff. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 FROSHADO holds a class and even potential speed figure edge as a lightly raced sophomore filly showing up in this spot. She broke her maiden on debut earning a solid 85 OptixFIG and has since been running against solid allowance competition holding her own.

#4 BLACK FOREST started out her career in a similar manner showing progression race-to-race though has yet to take that required step forward and that could be the test for her today though the connections in the right spot on this circuit trying to find that right level and regain confidence.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 SUNSET PAYNTER showed a lot of ability on debut leading to a private purchase and ambitious placement by the connections at Oaklawn Park following. She showed run in those Oaklawn races more than the running lines and finishing positions suggest. The same carries from the June 8th allowance race and is upgrade coming back in this spot with the SHORTER distance and preferred ONE_TURN.

The extra half-furlong could benefit #4 PEACH COBBLER as well as the circuit switch and form cycle pattern. He has been able to show more tactical speed and projects (Quad II above the ParLine) to show more early foot in today’s dynamic looking at OptixPLOT.

In terms of trip the off-the-pace RunStyle for #2 CHROME ATTACK is the challenge once again. She was able to benefit from the race FLOW earning place on June 8th. The similar pace/trip challenges in play for her stablemate #7 RARE ACTION ATTACK in addition to class as she steps up from the claiming conditions. That similar class move will also be in play for #8 GOOD MONGOLIA coming back from the June 11th win as well as for #1 PRANCIPANTS. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 LITTLE BELLA comes right back for Witthauer from the June 11th race, her first start off a lengthy 968-day layoff. She looked to have intent that day and was keen, hard sent to the lead and fast pace before tiring late. She does not “need the lead’ and comes back with a rider change that could see her take up a tracking trip (likely sitting just off #4 FOGGY KITTEN) looking for first run.

#2 KITTEN ROCKS is tougher to trust on the win end and even as an individual with the tendency to break slow. She returns with some changes today to suggest intent by trainer Brian Cook and is worth noting her most “recent” win was at this condition last June. Similar “back class” and figures apply to #5 RANK AND FILE and could see her starting to return to top form as she did not have her usual GATE (reluctant to load) issues on June 18th.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 TEN COUNT could take the bulk of public support coming back off the layoff for Vanden Berg and from the place finish in his debut here last September. While he turned in an honest effort was able to benefit from a softer pace, with the two pacesetters together at the wire. In addition, he will be required to improve overall and require that improvement while giving up recency to others in the field and should be kept honest on the lead at least with #3 SHARP STICK and #4 DARK SOLUTION in the race.

Block will be represented by a pair today, both coming back from a common race on June 8th. #7 EVEN THE WIND was given preference on the day based on some subtle trips and showing run in his turf starts out at Tampa and holding the May 4th main track prep waiting for a return to the turf. #5 COOL AND COLLECTED has been waiting to debut on this circuit and at route of ground on the turf. He raced GREEN on debut, RANK early WIDE on the first turn and a handful for the rider that day. He returns with that experience under his belt, a rider change, and some additional training with the work on June 18th.

Perez will also sent out a pair in this race the two softer on current numbers though carry upside and should improve in today’s race. #8 ICE SHARD showed a lot of run on debut following a SLOG/TROUBLE_S making a strong CLOSE and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. He was scheduled to run on the turf for the debut, finds that surface today and could show more tactical speed both noting the start and returning with added ground for this second start. #9 RUSSIAN STANDARD will be given a class test (might require DROP) once again, though from a physical standpoint should handle the turf.