Handicapper Tips & Picks

Morning line favorite #2 MODERN MIDAS is the horse to beat running back to his 2022 form. He could present upside noting his visuals (OptixNOTE PRERACE-) coming back off the layoff on May 14th and should keep an eye on this one prerace today to gauge visuals here. 

In terms of early speed, #7 TUNNEL VISION could appear the controlling speed, though #5 WOODSIDE WARRIOR has hidden speed coming back from the 6/9 race sitting close to a Fast (O4S) pace at a mile in against the higher Special Weight company. There has been intent to run for the $30k claiming tag and sprint distance keying off a 5/14 vet scratch. 

#1 ONE FOR MY BROTHER also shows intent for the main track noting he was MTO (MCL $40k) on 6/11 and 6/18.#3 TWO CHUCKLES was also entered MTO on 6/23 and could move up second off the layoff though has come up short under similar MCL conditions without excuse to consider with shorter projected odds. 

#8 FORWARD CAST could also show up today with a new top effort. This will be his second start off the layoff, a subtle class drop exiting higher OFR races in his three prior starts. The addition of blinkers could also assist form as he posted an improved published work time from the gate on June 21st, the work following the June 11th return.  

The race that #1 POND WALKER exits last July at MTH was pretty heavy on the weaksauce with the few that came out of that race to win did so at the maiden claiming level. She was dominant first out though has the class change on this circuit as well as giving up recency from the near one year to the date layoff to consider at a shorter price. 

#2 DIAMOND HANDS comes off a sneaky good effort in traffic and should benefit from the added ground. She has struggled to hodl her form and string races together and could be a positive sign that she comes back for this race in less than 30-days for just third time in her career. 

#5 GAL IN A RUSH fits on current form condition with a B OptixGRADE on  April 16th and while she will race today at 7f for the first time, she turned in another B OptixGRADE BTL race at 6.5f in the Alywow stakes over the Woodbine turf last July. #6 CANDLE also has held her form at the N1X allowance condition with the consistent OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE though must show more today to earn that often required, B OptixGRADE to win. 

Number wise #4 EXPLOSIVE EXCHANGE is softer than others and must improve, though has some buried form and upside from the EX - EXCUSE last month at MTH Park. 

If the riders ride their horses to show the early speed many in this group are capable of, the pace could be contentious hot and set up for #5 SHIPSATIONAL (one that has back numbers, class, form along with his top efforts here at BEL Park) ; and #7 COSTA TERRA, a horse that could be suited to the one-turn mile-like distances. Today's race shape could flatter his style as has been closing ground into slower paces this year.

#6 VICTORY WAY and #8 MR. SWAGGER could turn out to have the most talent and upside in this field, though both in a tougher ask today for these conditions against older and ones to follow regardless of today's outcome going into the second half of the season. 

This race with the distance is too tough to narrow down on pure handicapping with more than half of the field contenders in a compact group. 

The connections of #5 TORIGO have been confident on this horse from the debut showing up in a strong group at Saratoga (key race 8/13) to taking a swing in the Pilgrim (G2) and other stakes scratch not shown on paper before closing out the abbreviated 2022 season. He has upside keying off that August debut, not just with the productive nature of that race but on his own merits recording a 73 OptixFIG as a juvenile and can project a move forward with age and maturity returning here as a sophomore. He will reunite with Carmouche and tough to knock the steady, consistent published worktab to suggest he is race ready and intended for this event. 

#7 SUMMER SNOW should be shorter than #4 FRAC TALES though slightly easier to take with some upside making his first start at the lower claiming level. SUMMER SNOW has her own challenges given the excessive layoff lines, also reason to suggest if any time is the time, this would be it. 

#8 INFINITE PASSION is also tough to take with confidence given her race record, though with many in this field that have shown early speed and lacked finish, she will have pace to run at today and has been her most competitive under similar pace scenarios.

No knocks on #2 DIRECT DRIVE and improving type coming into this race and competitive with "trips" in each start. #1 COHERENCE shifts to the TURF and should handle the surface switch though has come up short this year at the Special Weight level without excuse in those place finishes (similar pairing B- OptixGRADE on #5 LEGISLATOR) to look for a contender elsewhere. 

#4 SAMMY STONE looked like he would clear the Maiden condition last year and has some legit TROUBLE at times and placement far from ideal - with one of those races being his lone TURF start, the Summer (G1). 

#9 WICKED DJANGO completely missed the break (VSLOG) in his debut three weeks ago and made a MOVE into a slow pace (S/VS) in a BTL effort and should handle added ground/STRETCH.

#5 FIELD HOCKEY ran his career best 78 OptixFIG (and highest OptixFIG recorded in the field) over this course and distance last October in the Ontario Racing Stakes. He returned on November 6th racing with just three shoes and closed out the season with a WIDE trip in December. 

#1 PIONEER'S EDGE showed a lot of ability early on last year breaking her maiden on debut and returning with a BTL/B OptixGRADE in the Fury Stakes and held her own in the stakes races the remainder of the season. The WEATHER conditions with steady rain and WIDE outside draw/trip played against her along with that November 12th race sandwiched by layoff lines. Her form coming into this race is progressive and even worthy of an upgrade given the WIDE/X_WIDE trips and overall form cycle. 

#6 LADY URUS ran a huge figure braking her maiden on debut, though could be aided by the BIAS that day favoring horses forwardly placed and inside, her exact trip. 

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Of the horses that have run: #6 CALLE REINA projects improvement for this second start chasing open length pacesetting winner, Pennick. Minshall looks to have intent coming back today with Lasix, Turf (work over the grass on 6/23) and Wilson for this second start.

#2 THAT GIRL ARTEMUS showed a lot of run while GREEN in her June 3rd debut and off the visuals can IMPROVE.#12 MOION also returns from the June 3rd common race and showed run in spots (WIDE, MOVE) for a HOT barn after a poor SLOG/TROUBLE_S start.

Casse sending out a trio in this race and would be no surprise to see at least one of the group well-intended for this race and out of the group of the first time starters. 

#6 WONDER WHEEL projects to be a heavy favorite in this race and legitimate in that role. She is a proven graded stakes horse and was likely sitting on a peak effort in the KY Oaks (G1) though had a near excuse with the ride/trip by Rosario and even a more subtle excuse coming off the layoff in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland in the prior start. The placement here is logical if for the reason to allow her to regain some confidence. 

#3 HONOR D LADY perhaps her biggest threat and a quality filly in her own right with upside as she makes her third start this season and as a sophomore. Her stablemate #8 BLIND SPOT recorded a strong figure as the unofficial winner of the Star Shoot stakes and while she has come up short in the graded stakes turf races, the synthetic does appear to be her preferred surface. 

Husbands is sticking with #4 MASSETO for Casse/D J Stables over #1 CADAMOSTO (Wilson) as he had been named on both. Going back to the races overseas these two had run against each other and both in Group events with MASSETO slightly more successful though CADAMOSTO running in the G1 races. Their stablemate #5 LUCKY SCORE has the local form and some competitive graded stakes efforts including the Vigil (G3) win on the Tapeta last year. 

#8 STRIKER has back form  and competitive races in graded stakes company that makes him a fit. He does require that form and getting back to a top effort as his 2023 races are not quite enough to win. Perhaps he needed the start coming off the two month break and ship back to Woodbine, though lacked any excuse lacking finish in the June 4th allowance. 

Finishing ability (Circle) is the concern with #10 ONE TIMER though he has legit early speed and will be out in front clearing from the outside draw and speed can be dangerous, especially left alone Rivelli speed. 

The potential for a contentious (Sun/45 SpeedRate) could create the right scenario for #2 ARTIE'S STORM and #5 GOLDEN GLIDER in the Dominion Day (G3) stakes.

ARTIE'S STORM can be upgraded from the Eclipse (G2) earning a B- OptixGRADE with trip adversity from the TROUBLE_S and TRAFFIC still making a CLOSE late. Both #4 TYSON and #7 CARROTHERS also earned a B- OptixGRADE and should be shorter coming back in this spot. CARROTHERS is downgraded (against from that race at a short price) off his visuals/DROP. #6 TREASON earning a B OptixGRADE is obvious of the group and reason for the 2-1 morning line assignment.

#5 GOLDEN GLIDER gives up recency off the layoff, though fits on class with his graded stakes form from last year. His class was present breaking his maiden over today's course on debut in a BTL effort that is when you have free time worth going back to watch. 

#4 MOIRA would be no shock in here however expected to see more from her on debut and the change to a flat mile is not an easy move especially in this competitive group and there are other ways to land and prices with MOIRA in this race. #8 FEV ROVER is preferred of the two, though also has her challenges with the flat mile distance coming back from the 266-day layoff.

#7 SWEET ENOUGH was given a #BetWoodbineTB look on June 3rd in the Royal North Stakes and ran a solid race WIDE against X_BIAS. #2 MILLIE GIRL also catching the eye in that race with a BTL show finish strong CLOSE and GALLOP+.

#9 EMINENT VICTOR returns from a complete excuse in the Gallorette (G3) at Pimlico and freshened for her return to Woodbine and the E.P. Taylor course where she ran a strong B OptixGRADE in the Natalma as a juvenile. #3 SCOTISH STAR also has graded stakes form and early speed that should give her the edge over the other projected pacesetters in this field. 

#2 CANDY WINE was another given a #BetWoodbineTB follow on June 15th as she had the TURF Projection and "trips" in her two prior starts this season. CANDY WINE had some TROUBLE_S out of the gate though otherwise not much excuse and does require a rebound, though should have some price compensation today. #8 BLUEBERRY DOLL also has some buried form off her races this season and could catch the right group with the added ground and some positive intent with the rider change to Contreras. 

As far as morning line favorite, #2 WADSWORTH he is solid in that role. He checks the boxes on class, speed and has shown a versatile running style. He comes into this race off a BTL effort in the Caesar Stakes finishing in a photo for the win with the pacesetting winner, #4 GIGANTE and WADSWORTH stronger with the GALLOP+ of the two after the wire. 

#6 SHARAR seemed to need his local start with Pletcher picking the Audubon over the Pennine Ridge (G2) on the same day (tougher group and lower purse) at Belmont Park. His trip was less than ideal breaking a step slow, taking a stumble a few strides after getting out of the gate and checking TROUBLE early on before moving to a WIDE stalking trip behind a moderate pace. There should be plenty of pace for him to target (Fire/67 SpeedRate) in here, including his stablemate #5 HIDDEN PATH and present that move forward in the second start of the cycle. 

Tough to see #5 MARSALIS stick at the assigned 6-1 morning line given his race record, consistent figures and live Asmussen barn with those factors making him a prime contender in this race. He has the right running style with the ability to show tactical speed, something often key here over the Ellis Park main track and positional edge on some of his main rivals. 

This is a tricky race from a pace perspective lacking a true E/EP type runner and over a course that often plays favorable to those RunStyle horses. #2 MOON SWAG is not on that run on for near the lead in her career though could see her more assertively ridden today second time Saez and off the Shawnee (G3) WIDE trip last month. The timing of this race in the second start of the form cycle along with added ground should see her sitting on a peak effort today. 

#6 A MO REAY was a front runner early on in her career though moved up since entering the Brad Cox barn and shifting her RunStyle into a pressure/stalker. Trip will be key with the tactic utilized by Prat. Rider tactics will be key for #5 PAULINE'S PEARL given her preferred RunStyle similar to A MO REAY. 

As a projected longshot, #8 MUSIC STREET is deserving of a mention in this race. She was nearly co-favored with #3 ROYAL TAKE CHARGE in the May 27th allowance turning in an honest (B- OptixGRADE) effort against the race flow. MUSIC STREET can often "peak" in the third start off the layoff and has that form cycle coming into today's race. #1 BELLAMORE also brings a favorable form cycle pattern and reuniting with Garcia, a rider that has been aboard with success, the pair never finishing out of the money in each of their four starts. 

#8 SET PIECE stands out as the horse to beat in this race. He fits with today's race as a whole with the dynamic/pace, and current form/class. The higher SpeedRate and Sun Contention should allow for him to sit his trip. 

#1 HARLAN ESTATE finished behind SET PIECE in the Arlington (G3) last month and while he might not be to the level to turn the tables, he has held his form and appears to have found his top form this year for Beckman. 

#5 PLAY ACTION PASS does not hold the same credentials though has some class in his own right keying off competitive races at the graded stakes level and comes into this race with intent in his second start off the layoff. Number wise #6 KITTENSETT will look to transfer those figures to graded stakes company, a class rise he will be tested against today.

#7 COWBOY JUSTICE has not shown off his two starts this season he is on the level of his top competition in this race. With that said and off the visuals in those events, he could be a horse that is coming around and acclimating to stateside racing with a case to be made he has yet to show his best this year. 

The Stephen Foster (G1) is a tricky race and one that is not short on quality with many of the top older handicap horses in this field. If looking at credentials #1 PROXY has shown consistency in G1 events giving him that edge over many in this field. Trip is the key factor here as he draws the rail and must work position early and requires a different trip than if this race was run at Churchill Downs based on Proxy's RunStyle and the Ellis Park main track profile. 

In terms of trip, #6 WEST WILL POWER should be flattered by the race shape, course profile and in his best chance to pick up that G1 win. He has enough tactical speed to run early with #3 SPEED BIAS (and #2 STILLETO BOY) and the edge on finishing ability of that pair. 

The McPeek pair are quality runners: #4 RATTLE N ROLL has moved up as an older horse. He has also benefit from the perfect combination of training, timing and placement in his races and finds a tougher group today, something of a test today outside of the speed figures that clearly keep him in the mix. #5 SMILE HAPPY arguably might be the "better" horse, though at 9f, he must be. He is capable at this distance though requires the ideal trip, pace ride and bringing a top effort. 

#7 LAST SAMURAI has come up short when tested at this graded stakes level, though coming into this race should be sitting on a peak effort. The return to Torres should have Last Samurai closer to the pace and there is a scenario where he can "trip out" to win. #8 HAPPY AMERICAN has a tough task with today's race shape, class, course profile and his off-the-pace (Quad IV Circle) running style. 

Morning line favorite #5 XIGERA has built up the fan club that will keep her odds short in this race, a competitive race where her edge over the others is minimal or non-existent. 

#7 GIRL NAMED CHARLIE has buried form coming into this race and could even suggest a hidden class edge. She turned in a BTL effort in the Edgewood (G2) and ran against a quality field in the Regret (G3) last month. She has shown turf as her preferred surface and after struggling to get to the grass she showed her true ability breaking her maiden in a dominant manner at the Fair Grounds. Value should be present and could even drift from the 6-1 morning line with the recent running lines and finishing positions sitting on top of her past performances. 

P 2 Red Coin 3 Shadows Terror 4 Coopo A Loop

P 7 Ron 6 Dragon Energy 1 Last Beach

P 2 Moment Is Here 1 Write Me A Rose 3 Ace Of Aces

P 4 Fade To Light 6 Brookdale Johnny 7 Warrawee Yankee

P 8 Parisian Blue Chip 9 Style For A Mile 10 Dabarndawgswatchin

P 1 Roll With The Flow 9 Woodmere Stealdeal 4 Points North

P 9 Arties Ideal 1 Rockme Rollme 2 Somethime Somewhere

P 5 Stockade Seelster 4 Watchulookin At 2 Control

P 7 Warrawee Vital 5 Poseidon Seelster 4 Mamas Son Byrne

P 9 Highlandbeachlover 3 Shadow In Red 6 Macs Big Boy