Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 DOROTHY CROWFOOT worked 10 flat in the March sale and still with things to work out running on her left lead. She has had plenty of time since and plenty of foundation with the long series of drills here at Hawthorne. She will be joined by Rivelli stablemate #3 RICHIE’S GAL, an Illinois homebred with fewer published works and those works at shorter distances though with a live rider in Mojica.

Trainer Michele Boyce will also send out a pair of homebred (IL) fillies sharing a similar published work tab and times. The barn is capable with first time starters though in terms of debuting juveniles this time of year, this is something different as they debut later in the summer or even later into the fall/winter season. In that research, Boyce trained the dam of #4 DEVIL, Speed Devil one that was favored on debut and finish third first out (AP) before breaking her maiden in the second start here at Hawthorne. Boyce also trained the dam of #2 RUNBRANDT, Lil Rum Tum one that debuted at two, though did not break her maiden until her twelfth start as a four year at the maiden claiming level.

Rivelli comes right back with another pair in this claiming event. #2 OPALINE has the benefit of experience at this level and upside with the “every other” pattern. She is also a “flow upgrade” from the June 8^th sprint, up close to a Very Fast (OptixO4S) pace before losing ground. Number wise Opaline has the current slight edge over #5 GETTIN DOWN coming off a dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) maiden win on June 15^th.

Former stablemate #6 LUNARCHY recorded one of the higher figures with her maiden win on May 31^st. Claimed out of that race Meraz stepped her up to the $25k level, a move that is more of a “protective” one and returns to the $6250k condition, a more reasonable level. Hernandez will also take over today and this jockey trainer combination went viral last Sunday with the 80-1 winner, Command Central.

Both #1 BELLS OF JOY and #3 SEQUYA are tougher to trust on the win end given their overall record. Both should fit today’s race shape running on late though have themselves to overcome for the win and the 5.5f distance in terms of trip. 

#2 TWIRLING ROSES recorded a strong effort at this level with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. Despite the 5^th place result, he still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG, both factors making him a player right back under similar conditions. The running line and result could have him overlooked especially when paired with the running line and result from the May 28^th turf race. That running line is one to “put a line through” as he had a legit EX – EXCUSE  from the poor rider TACTIC- (noting a rider change today) to the TROUBLE that still saw him CLOSE late in hand (NO_PUSH) and continued to GALLOP+ out strong after the wire.

The pace should be honest enough for Twirling Roses given the 6.5f distance with #5 TEE BURNS and #6 TIMEHASCOME in the field, both runners carrying legit sprint speed and doing their better work when on the lead. That pace should also assist #3 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY, though as an individual he must improve off his races, and steady B- OptixGRADES just shy of that “winning” type effort. Class and trip also comes into play for #1 DASH TO THE CASH and #4 ROCKET HOTSHOT both running on late with a strong kick, represented as Quad IV Squares. 

Perhaps June 7^th was not the day for #6 PACIFIC VIEW as she had a saddle adjustment behind the GATE which carried into the stall where she was very fractious and just ran evenly as the betting favorite to finish off the board. #5 BLAZE BEAUTY coming off the show finish that day and WIDE trip will shift to Giles, the previous Pacific View rider, looking to show more overall to get up to win. Both have shown some quirks at this level that leave some space for others in this field to jump up.

#2 FLYING COMET also returns from that June 7^th race and can present upside in her own right. There appeared some intent on debut, bet down and going off as the second choice from the 5-1 morning line. She did not have the cleanest trip either breaking SLOG racing GREEN and also noting the winner, first time starter Mysweetannalyze won gate to wire.

#1 GOLD OAK looks very live on debut for Reavis. This pattern for debuting Special Weight runners has a small though solid sample. She  comes into this race with plenty of foundation and stamina with the “old school” blowout from the gate on June 15^th to prepare for this race. Many of the first time starters that have had success showed early speed and that will be key here from the rail and does appear she is in the right hands with Felix aboard. 

#7 IAN GLASS is deserving of another look under similar conditions from the June 1^st race. He figured logical in that spot and all the way up until post time when he became agitated at the GATE when a rival acted up and washed out WARM waiting out the delay and for the race. That PRERACE- behavior seemed to carry into the race creating a sneaky excuse, and one that cannot be seen on the replay alone.

#1 MALPAIS looked to be using the April 30^th return as a prep for TURF and fir the first time this season will shift back to the grass. That change could be just what this one needs to get back on track, as outside of the effort in April the May and June races sit below what could be required to win. 

Rivelli returns with another pair of juveniles in this spot. #1 CLASSIC RICHIE has the benefit of experience and should have plenty of fitness from the WIDE trip on June 14^th at Presque Isle. He has been training here at Hawthorne and that includes a “bullet” from the gate back on May 12^th. Stablemate #2 RAVIN’S TOWN also worked from the gate that same day and lands here at Hawthorne to make his debut. This Sunday card being the first of the juvenile races carded this season could have been the reason for Classic Richie to debut out of town and even similar intent for Ravin’s Town noting he was entered and scratched from a Special Weight race on June 11^th at Prairie Meadows.

Trainer Fausto Gutierrez does not have the strongest debut win percentage though has a lot of experience with juvenile runners and noted for #5 CHISPARRAJOS showing up in this spot for this outfit. The intention was to debut back in April at Keeneland though has that scratch and some gaps in the published work tab since. 

The Perez pair are upgraded with the class drop coming into this race at a level where they look suited to their abilities. #4 ARMAVIR earned a follow from his debut against a STRONG group at Meydan back in December. He has shown some mild progression since, though not quite to what was required to compete against his Special Weight rivals in May. Returning not only with the DROP but also with the 35-day freshening and retaining Tavares are positives here. #6 ICE VORTEX was upgraded with the DROP on June 7^th and still presents upside from that trip from the TROUBLE_S and X_WIDE  with the race dynamic and result as the pacesetters cleared early and finished together and clear at the wire late.

That is also noted for #3 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS coming out of that June 7^th race and slow tart as he will look to improve with subtle class relief and shift to the main track. #1 LARRY THE POET also finds class relief today, a positive change as he lacked excuse setting a Very Slow early pace on June 15^th and was NO_FINISH late.

#2 GOLD SMOKE has recorded the some of the higher speed figures in the field and also holds experience at the maiden claiming level from back on April 9^th. Earning a B- OptixGRADE, his most competitive GRADE to date suggests he should move up and compete here. 

#9 GO STORMIN GIRL has probably had the toughest luck of any horse so far this meet. She was just short gaining with the BTL effort on June 11^th (a common race for many in this field) and validated that effort on June 22^nd where she was “much the best/B+ OptixGRADE however was disqualified in my opinion a controversial call. She will again look to validate herself back in this spot where holding form will be key again on the quick turnaround and what could be a much shorter number than the two prior starts.

This appears the right spot for #5 BALI BABY returning from the 107-day layoff. She was entered to return here in a turf sprint back on June 8^th in an allowance race before the connections finding a claiming event, one she was eventually a vet scratch from on June 11^th. She has some buried form and figures that stack up on par and looking to get back to top form for the first time in 2023 would have her competitive in this group.

Number wise #3 ZANDREA’S has recorded some of the highest figures in this field on her best day. She has had some subtle trips this year and for this race finds a significant distance change as she will sprint today for the first time in her career.

Most of the field (six) were entered in a similar race on Wednesday (6/28) rescheduled to run here after the cancellation. The presence of #1 G T FIVE HUNDRED, one of the horses (along with #3 CHAD’S FLASH) that was not entered on Wednesday and makes for a legit contender in this spot for Mason. The Mason barn started off cold with many runners that “fit” where they were placed this season, though has started to heat up keying off a pair of winners last week.

From that June 28^th race: #4 GALLANT BUCK looked to hold a subtle edge on recency. This will be his third start back off the layoff and showing progression race to race, including the “flow upgrade” close to the Very Fast early pace on June 7^th as they return to the claiming level.  As far as class and back numbers, #2 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR had that strong edge. Excusing the turf start at Ellis Park and the 2022 finale on the Canterbury Park closing day card (followed up by a 284-day layoff) his consistency in speed figures (OptixFIG in the 80’s) noted within today’s par.

The class change could also suit #6 BALADINE, looking to find the right group to get back on track. His form coming into this race is also buried with some subtle trouble in the allowance races this season and still recording consistent numbers that stack up with the others. 

First two-year-old race of the meet! Short run to the turn as I'll look to 3-RICHIE'S GAL. She comes in with short, but quick breezes into this spot. I like her most recent gate drill as she make be able to scamper away early and try to wire these. 4-DEVIL looks to be a threat as she has worked well into this debut also. She was working in company with stablemate 2-Rumbrandt and the only reason I went to Devil is because she outworked her ever so slightly on June 11. 5-MISS SAINT has some snappy drills as well. She did stretch out for a gate work on June 8 and it wouldn't surprise me if she runs well in here at first asking.

Many of these back from the canceled Wednesday card. Still thinking 5-GETTIN DOWN is fast enough to make the top and never look back. It was a good maiden score last out as she gets back at the same distance. 3-SEQUAYA doesn't like to win, but has 11 runner-up efforts on her career. She just missed in her last and should be chasing the pace in here. 1-BELLS OF JOY also rarely wins, but she has 14 combined 2nd and 3rd place efforts on her career. The inside trip should suit here.

Curious to see how this race unfolds as 6-TIMEHASCOME is likely to be sent for the top. He could be tough to catch if he clears off 5-Tee Burns but I think they will keep each other honest. I went to 3-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY as he has some tactical speed and should be able to track the pace. He ran well at this level last out and the added 16th may help his chances today. That added distance will also help the chances of 1-DASH TO THE CASH as he has run well throughout the meet. He was closing ground late in his last and could get the right amount of pace to chase.

He comes out of two very tough races but 9-COMISKEY PARK figures prominently in here on the class relief. He has speed but doesn't need the top to win. Let's see if he can track the leaders and run on late. 4-UPBEAT MELODY is one of those with speed as  he will be hustled away from the break. He likes this track and is another that is solid on turf or dirt. 6-ONE PUTT RICHIE has tactical speed as he figures to tuck in just off the pace and close in the lane. He ran well at a nice price last out and could get overlooked once again.

Competitive bunch as I'll look to 2-RAVIN'S TOWN on debut. He has a consistent string of half mile drills and the inside draw should benefit with the short run into the turn. 7-FIVE O'SOMEWHERE has the benefit of a couple of starts in Kentucky coming into here. He ran well in his second start and returned off that race with a bullet drill from the gate. 1-CLASSIC RICHIE ran a decent race in his debut over the synthetic at Presque isle on June 14. He chased into the lane before giving way late. He will just need to get away from the rail to have a shot in here.

Pretty significant class drop off what wasn't a terrible race last out for 1-LARRY THE POET. He ran into a tough winner in Tahoe Run on June 15 and battled with him into the lane before giving way. In here he should be lonely on the lead as he may be able to back things down early and never look back. 2-GOLD SMOKE has run some races against better as well that would make him competitive here. Centeno takes over in the saddle as he may look to get a bit more early speed from him today. 4-ARMAVIR could be a sleeper in here as he drops for today's race. He comes in off a snappy recent work and is bred to show some speed at two turns.

With the pace to the inside, going to look to 9-GO STORMIN GIRL as she comes off an unlucky DQ in her last. She missed the break in that spot and made a strong rally to win going away. An iffy call for interference at the top of the lane took her down but she is in good recent form and merits a look once again. 6-APRIL'S GEM has been solid in turf sprints. She closed some in her last couple but should get even more pace to chase in here. 7-STACY ATTACK has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She ran a good second two races back before being overbet in her last. Let's see if she can rate and rally today.

A field that has changed up quite a bit from the canceled race on Wednesday. 1-G T FIVE HUNDRED was not in that spot but races in here for a barn that has been sharp recently. He ran a good sprint in the Oaklawn slop in February and should rate close in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. 2-MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR returns off the layoff as he drops for his first start of the meet. He figures to rate mid-pack early but should be closing quickly in the lane. 5-TABLE MONEY chased before giving way in his last. He drops for this spot as well as he figures to improve in his second start of the meet.

Sometimes money talks. There are, of course, no guarantees but 6-DOROTHY CROWFOOT was a cool $500,000 purchase. Nine workouts, a couple noteworthy because she outworked older and she was breaking from the gate, coming into her career debut should have her ready to run. 2-RUMBRANDT, overall, might possess the best string of drills. She had only the one bullet but all of her works were among the top third on the days she worked. She gets the top rider in the irons.  4-DEVIL doesn’t sport the lofty price tag but she’s another with some pretty nice drills and like top choice, runs for connections that do well with babies and first timers. 

Out of the six runners in this race, four could be gunning for the lead, including two from the same barn. Unfortunately, the runners most likely to try to make a late move have records of 1-for-37 and 1-for-32. So, we’ll try to guess which of the speed can sustain herself despite early pressure. Have to figure it will be 5-GETTING DOWN. She tired in her first two starts and ran like a champ when dropped into a $6250 maiden last time out. She was never tested and won for fun. Others in here seem a tad quicker but she was never all out in last. There could be more in the tank. 3-SEQUAYA just missed in a route in last start which was her best race in years. She pressed the pace in that race but probably won’t get near the early lead today. Instead, with the turn back, she’ll try to come on late. But she is 1-for-37 for a reason. 1-BELLS OF JOY, another turn back, finished third in her last three. Like Sequaya, she’ll be coming late and like that runner, she already has a ton of starts under her belt.

The complexion of this race changed completely compared to the race that was scheduled for Wednesday. In that race, that included most of these runners, there was only one runner likely to go for the lead. He’s not in this version. Instead two runners will be fighting it out for the lead in this version. So this time I’ll go for 3-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY. He finished second as the favorite in last after taking the late lead. Think he’ll make amends in this one. 6-TIMEHASCOME and 5-TEE BURNS will be fighting for the lead. This incarnation of this race sets up far better for the late-running 1-DASH TO THE CASH. He finished third in last at this level in his first start versus winners but the extra distance of this race could weigh heavily in the outcome.

Leaning toward 1-GOLD OAK in this race. Runners from her barn often need a race or two to reach peak form but her pedigree shines, especially if it rains. Her long drills should have her dead fit. 5-BLAZE BEAUTY could be sitting on a win. She finished third in three of her four races this meet but seems to be getting stronger with each passing start. The move to the apprentice in the irons, with his weight break, could be the extra incentive she needs. Depending on what the first timers do, 3-ANGEL EXPRESS could turn out to be the best and maybe the only speed. Both of her races were on turf but she had some good dirt drills so we know she can handle the main track. 6-PACIFIC VIEW was barely beaten in her first two races of the meet but she seemed to regress a bit in last. However, she did show what she is capable of doing. Could bounce back with a big effort. 

Don’t imagine we’ll lose many of these runners if the race comes off the turf. I only see one likely scratch since most in here are essentially main-track runners with varying degrees of turf experience. It looks like six of the nine runners in here have a legitimate chance, especially at this five-furlong distance. Even though many in here are likely to fight for the lead, they can maintain their speed for this abbreviated distance. But, going to take a chance with 1-MALPAIS. He’s obviously been off form lately but he can close well and the move to the turf could be just what the doctor ordered, especially with all the speed ahead of him. 9-COMISKEY PARK is the unknown. He has good natural speed, closes well at times, drops into claimers for the first time in over a year and has had some turf success, without ever winning on the lawn. 7-IAN GLASS, 6-ONE PUTT RICHIE, 4-UPBEAT MELODY, 8-PATSTER, 5-LUCKY SHOT could all be vying for the lead. 

7-FIVE O’ SOMEWHERE apparently has some issues getting out of the gate in good order but he continues to train well. He just finished third at Churchill last month. Makes his local debut despite training here. Faces an easier group. Might be good enough to overcome a poor start in a softer spot. 2-RAVIN’S TOWN, a $300k purchase, has been training forwardly toward his career debut. Runners from this barn are generally ready at first asking. 1-CLASSIC RICHIE, stablemate of Raven’s Town, ran evenly to finish third in his debut at Presque Isle two weeks ago. Can build on that effort, runners from this barn making their second starts win about 27% of the time, and be even more of a contender in this spot. 

1-LARRY THE POET could be tough. He did tire in last, his first two-turn start, but he’s dropping from maiden specials to face an easier group and he should be able to benefit from his route experience. 2-GOLD SMOKE also drops. He’s had 10 starts, nine against maiden specials, but he finished second in his lone maiden claiming race and he went off as the favorite in that event. 3-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS showed little in his lone start. That race was on the lawn and he had to chase blistering fractions. His barn wins with 30% of runners going from turf to dirt. Figures prominently.

I’m guessing this race gets moved to the main track. It was wide open on the turf and that won’t change if it does switch to dirt. 1-PRANCIPANTS had a three-race win streak snapped in last but still finished second. She’s capable on or off the lead. However, she is making her 11^th start of the year and you have to wonder how much is left in the tank. 2-SHEZ RECKLESS likes to come from off the pace but has been known to challenge the lead at time. Got claimed from her last two starts. Guessing the jockey they are utilizing today will send her from the gate. 4-FIRST SQUADRON could be the first from the gate. She often tires but she had a couple wire-to-wire wins earlier in the meet.

Many of the runners in here are dropping from allowance company. 1-G T FIVE HUNDRED takes a much-needed drop in class. He finished second in an $80k claimer the last time he ran in a straight non-winners of two. This easier spot should help greatly. 6-BALADINE moves back to the main track. His dirt speed figures suggest that he could be the fastest of these but he was eased the last time he ran on dirt. 5-TABLE MONEY didn’t fire in his first start of the meet but he’s probably meeting somewhat easier in this spot. Can improve with a trip over the track.