Handicapper Tips & Picks

Opens with a competitive race as many in this field taking the right class drop to clear the maiden condition. #5 VOSTRA will run first time for the claiming tag and moves up off their current form and solid effort over today’s course and distance on May 14^th – that B- OptixGRADE and 69 OptixFIG right on par for today’s race.

#1 ANCIENT MAN was scheduled to run under today’s conditions back on June 15^th (vet scratch) with the placement that day moving him up and one that projected to get overlooked off buried form. His effort on April 13^th recorded one of the higher OptixFIG in the field and earned that fourth place finish making a MOVE against (X_BIAS) the track profile that day. He can be given a “flow upgrade” behind open length pacesetting winner Winnemac Avenue on May 4^th and had legit TROUBLE+ at the start on June 4^th. 

Following a similar profile to Race 1, a competitive maiden group with most of this field placed according to their abilities. #1 MINING CAMP making the belated return to maiden claiming company (DROP) the right move for this horse based on their visuals this season. In addition to the DROP visuals, the shift to the TURF should suit this horse. As far as the Special Weight turf race on May 21^st they are upgraded sitting close to a Very Fast early pace and noting the race was spaced out at the wire. Number wise MINING CAMP sits right in line with #4 ELECTIC CHARGE one that could get attention here off the finishing positions though tougher to trust on the win end in this field as they have come up short at this level and will face some new faces in this race.

#8 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was given a follow off his races last year and especially with the return to turf on June 7^th. He continues to earn that follow with the BTL show finish where he had to deal with TRAFFIC, TROUBLE still make a CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the wire.

Olaf Hernandez has had success allowing horses to use their early speed and that is likely to be the tactic used today on #3 MARE’S GUNNER stretching out in distance and taking the class drop shifting to the turf. Overall he must improve and with that said, requires price compensation lacking that edge over others in the field. #5 LITTLE STEVEN following a similar profile stretching out and shifting to the turf for the first time. His debut figure, 76 OptixFIG stacks up as one of the strongest in the field to suggest he can compete on that from though still must step up while making the surface/distance changes and as far as class this is more of a lateral move in terms of OFR from the maiden claiming races in Kentucky.

The shift to the grass should move up #6 MARCHING ORDERS as he visually looks every bit a TURF horse. He requires that move forward though the timing should be right for this one as he has improved number wise with each race and another that returns to the maiden claiming level, a similar condition to where he debuted back in April. #7 NOBLE CREEKER is another that looked to move up shifting back to TURF on June 7^th. The bigger question with him is the ability to step up in class, though saw a sneaky good effort from him in that 5^th place finish with the WIDE trip and strong finish/CLOSE. 

Vanden Berg coming off a two race win day last Thursday is back trending positively and back with #3 LIKE A SALTSHAKER here at Hawthorne. Not only does this horse hold a strong record over this course with strong 92-88 OptixFIG in those three starts, but positive intent also appears in play as he fits this condition to run here without a tag and scratching from a starter allowance at Ellis Park on June 23^rd to run here instead. 

The stumble at the start (TROUBLE_S) on June 1^st for #2 STORM BORN took him out of his RunStyle on a day he projected to be forwardly placed. Not only was not asked (TACTIC-) for run, but he also changed the complexion and the outcome of the race with Option cruising to an open length win and the race as whole did not have any change in running order. That is noted as there is a subtle excuse and coming back under similar conditions today, STORM BORN fits and could get overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions.

#4 KEEN RESPONSE is another with buried form here at Hawthorne and at this condition from early on in the meet. He had a legit EX – EXCUSE with significant TROUBLE+ on April 30^th and returned with a competitive B- OptixGRADE on May 11^th – a GRADE shared with #5 STOLICH on the day. The connections of KEEN RESPONSE have been patiently waiting for this race to go noting a scratch from back on June 25^th when entered in $6250k N3L conditioned race, a race where he would have been running above condition and overmatched against that group.

#3 UNCLE DICK is work a mention here going back to June 18^th when he opened up as the 3-2 favorite and seemed intent on the day. His effort on the track was decent and might have negatively impacted by the prerace WARM-UP making a MOVE. The big test here will be the return to the route distance, a distance he has struggle with stamina wise in the past. 

#8 KENNESAW should offer value in this race and wheeling right back from the $20k claiming event two weeks ago. That spot was taken by default as the connections were looking for a turf sprint scratched twice (6/1 and 6/14) and off the June 22^nd visuals should move up returning to the SHORTER sprint distance today. His class and speed also stacks up on par and buried form with the dirt/main track races against much tougher company this year.

This race changes dramatically if the race is moved to the main track (listen to the prerace show in that case and you should be every day regardless!) with many in this field that could be looking for the dirt based on their form. #4 EXPROMPT was compromised with the surface switch when returning on June 14^th from the lengthy 339-day layoff. He had some other questions that day not only with the long layoff, but also running first time for the claiming tag – a combination that often comes with reservations, especially at the shorter price as he was on the day. Off the visuals, he had TROUBLE_S losing his footing out of the gate and race WIDE on hold/NO_PUSH and coming back in three weeks in this spot, the turf and Emigh back aboard is a positive sign here.

#5 DRAGON DREW was also slightly compromised with the June 14^th surface switch especially with the rail draw. He does not hold the same early speed on the dirt as he does on the turf and that created a subtle trip for him that day and still a competitive effort making a CLOSE after the SLOG to finish third. #6 GRAND HIDEAWAY entered for that June 14^th race decided to scratch with the surface switch and is logical back under similar conditions from the win on May 28^th (and November 13^th last season) though should be a shorter price in this competitive group with that “1” sitting on top of the past performances.

#10 STAR OF KODIAK is tougher to trust on the win end with his deep closing RunStyle and today’s 5f distance, though should be moving up late and logical for a share. Outside of trip, he should move up following Kennesaw from the June 22^nd race back to the one-turn here and subtle class change with his form this season on par and in line with others in this field. 

#2 QUEENS UP moves up coming off the layoff and significant change in class from the Oaklawn Park races this year. She was just short on the win end, though held her form race-to-race was just overmatched when it came to the top spot settling for the minors. The change in class/circuit moves her up in today’s race and in the right spot to regain some confidence.

#5 BERAVINA should benefit from the racing returning from the layoff back in May at HS Indy and moving to an outer post. This will be her first start back on the main track and sprinting conditions when filtering her past performances have yielded the better race results. Overall she does not hold much of an edge even on her best day with the best things going for her here the positively trending barn and her ability to show early speed. The opposite end of the pace: #6 STYLE has a solid late kick and form coming back from the place finish here on June 1^st and overall preferred of these two especially if longer odds to round out the exacta with QUEENS UP. 

Looking at OptixPLOT, #2 WILDWOOD SECRET should hold a strong pace advantage (Quad I Square above the Par Line) in this event. His form cycle and trainer intent is also positive keying off the “every other” pattern that comes with the change (DROP) in class and noted with the B OptixGRADE recorded on May 4^th under similar conditions.

There is another group of horses that hold wins at today’s restricted claiming condition this season. The two horses #5 BORN AGAIN GEORGE and #7 NYOMAN could receive attention off that alone and while clearly capable, they return off those wins with “Red” OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines as downgrades playing back at a shorter price.

#3 IDEA MAN has the win at this condition back on May 28^th and coming off a subtle trip (TROUBLE_S, WIDE) against a higher claiming class on June 18^th. #6 KING TITO has his win at this level and distance from early on in the meet from March 19^th. His form declined off that top effort though has stared to cycle forward with the improving OptixGRADE/FIG and could be overlooked today in favor of others and at the same time sitting on a peak effort.

#1 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER also with a win under similar conditions, surface/distance back on May 4^th. His RunStyle and projected trip (Quad IV Square) could be tougher to work the win, though should be moving up late to get into the mix. 

#10 STORM’S REFLECTION earned a follow with a sneaky good, B- OptixGRADE effort with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. He improved off that race finishing second on June 7^th with another subtle trip and game effort behind a well-intended winner, Bruce Banner that day.

#3 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN is a longer shot in this race to keep on the radar and one that is tougher to dismiss on the OptixPLOT. He will return to the turf for the first time since last season and the route distance in this third start back off the layoff. He has improved and stepped up off a similar “two sprints to a route” pattern in the past and should be under the radar today off the recent running lines.

CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN requires pace to run at Quad IV Square, though the pace could be honest (Red PlotFit) with some layoff returning runners and others stretching out in distance for this race. #2 LAWMAKER is another that could “trip” out looking at OptixPLOT and position as a tracking Square in Quad II around the ParLine. One of those layoff return runners, #9 BAILEYS RUN can be upgraded on Standard/Quad I Square, though in terms of distance (shift to Quad III) has shown limitations (ONE_TURN) and the NO_FINISH pattern in their two-turn races. 

Since the class drop, 2-CHERRY ORCHARD has been racing competitively with each start. The switch to Tavares in the saddle may put him over the top. 4-KING ZION is waaaaaaaaaay overdue for the maiden score. He has speed though in a race that has very little pace. 6-ONE ACE has been gradually improving. Have to think he improves in his second start around two turns.

Off turf as most should stay in this race. 4-ELECTRIC CHARGE has three straight runner-up efforts in dirt routes. He should be able to stalk early and take over late. 8-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY ran a decent race on the dirt last November. He may have needed his last and has trained well on the dirt this spring. 1-MINING CAMP is one with some speed who should benefit from the rail draw. Let's see if Centeno sends him to the front in here.

The ability to show some tactical speed will help 2-LATIN CASINO as he comes off a good win last out. He likes this track and should get a great trip. 3-LIKE A SALTSHAKER ran a good race in winning last out and was claimed out of that spot. He steps back up today and returns to Hawthorne where he has also had success. 4-MISTER KELLY should be forwardly placed as he battled Latin Casino to the wire last out. Let's see if he tries to shake loose early in here.

The class drop may be all it takes for 1-FABRICATOR as he stretches back out. He figures to rate closer and should be able to grind things out in the lane. 5-STOLICH broke his maiden while setting a slow pace on the dirt back in April. He faced tougher in his last couple and should get a good trip in here. 6-WICKED SUPRISE ran a solid race in breaking his maiden last out. He was able to close into a slow pace in that spot and could easily repeat that performance.

A different look to this race as it comes off the turf. 1-WEST WARPATH has been good on dirt and comes in off a nice string of allowance races. He should rate close and contend throughout. 9-FOLLOW THE SIGNS was a game winner in a race taken off the grass last out. He shortens up a 16th today but loves this track. 5-DRAGON DREW chased Follow the Signs late last out. He tends to get rolling a bit too late at times but may be worth a look underneath in the gimmicks.

Based off the recent races, 2-QUEENS UP should be very tough to beat. She's also going to be a short price and has been away from the races since March. It wouldn't surprise me if she wins, but I'll search for a better price. 6-STYLE ran a nice race while stepping up off the claim last out. She had a fast pace to chase and ran on late. I don't think they go as quickly upfront in here but I also don't expect any of these to win in 1:09. 4-RONAN has run well at Hawthorne, finding the board in 22 of 28 starts. She only has the one win though over the track though but that did come in a start three races back.

Expecting a few scratches from here but that will help the chances of speedy 10-STORM'S REFLECTION. He ran well on the grass last out but has some dirt races earlier in the meet that would make him tough in here. 6-BRODY'S FLY comes of the layoff and may be overlooked a bit in here. He gets some weight off in the saddle as he should be able to close some ground in the lane. 3-CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN improved in his last as he will need some pace to chase. He did run on late around two turns last December and could be picking up the pieces once again.

Quite a drop for 5-VOSTRA. But he finished third versus very tough maiden specials the last time he ran here on the main track. Throw out his last on the turf and his previous start at Churchill and he looks like he should win this. 2-CHERRY ORCHARD finished in the money in last couple at this level. Completes the route-sprint-route cycle. Expect him to chase the early speed and maybe overtake the leaders late. 1-ANCIENT MAN is another dropper. He also didn’t handle the lawn in last but many of his previous starts would make him a top contender today.

We’ll be off turf for the next couple days due to nearly nine inches of rain on Sunday. 1-MINING CAMP drops back in for a tag and stretches out. Thought he had a big chance on turf but maybe even a bigger chance on the main track at this level. He looks like the best of the speed. Might take it all the way. 5-LITTLE STEVEN hasn’t shown much so far but he’s shipping from a tougher circuit, he’s making his first start for different connections, and he’s stretching out for the first time. 4-ELECTRIC CHARGE had a couple decent efforts on the turf in his last two starts but he finished second in his previous three starts on the main track. 

Sometimes things work out your way when you drop a horse trying to get them eligible for starter allowances, sometimes they don’t. 3-LIKE A SALTSHAKER might be a case in point. He was claimed for $40,000 in his final start of 2022 but shipped to Turfway and didn’t show a thing. They dropped him to $10k in last at Churchill, maybe with starters in mind, and he was quickly claimed from a daylight victory. Now he is eligible for starters for the next couple years. His barn has been highly successful with runners in starters and this gelding could turn into their next ATM. 2-LATIN CASINO is fresh off victory in his first start after getting claimed by this barn. They took him for $12,500 and he jumped up to win a straight $20k claimer. He beat two of the remaining four members of this field in that last start. He might be able to do it again. 4-MISTER KELLY and 5-LAKE MILLS battled for the lead throughout in last and only a head separated them at the finish. We might see the same kind of trip today.

1-FABRICATOR stretches back out. He didn’t show much in previous two-turn races but in a race with little speed, he might be able to secure an easy lead and take it all the way. 5-STOLICH drops. Probable favorite has been competitive in optional claimers downstate in his last two starts. Could show even more with the drop into a straight non-winners of two. 6-WICKED SUPRISE dominated maidens in his most recent start. Like that he worked since. Could be at his best once again.

No idea of likely scratches. Most in here are fine on both turf and dirt but some are a surprise. Find it interesting that 1-WEST WARPATH is dropping to $10k after just winning an allowance race. Of course he was claimed four starts back for $7500 so he has more than made his money back. But have to appreciate his good form versus better. Can repeat. 5-DRAGON DREW just finished third behind many in here but he got away slower than usual and had to come on late. If he breaks alertly, he could be the quickest of these. 8-KENNESAW hasn’t been in the best of form but he is dropping to what could be the lowest level of his career.

Hard to imagine 2-QUEEN’S UP losing this race. She finished second in the final Arlington Washington Lassie, had an on and off year in 2022, but seems to have regained her best form this year. She was second in her last two at Oaklawn and proved she could be tough on or off the lead. Not sure any in here can give top pick a run for the money but 5-RONAN might be the only one. This stakes-placed mare, however, won only four times in 54 starts while finishing second 17 times. 6-STYLE ’s been in good form recently. Might be best for third place. 

An abundance of pace should set things up for the one-two finishers from a similar race in last. 1-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and 7-NYOMAN. Less than a length separated them in last with Nyoman getting the best of his rival. Both runners would probably prefer six furlongs but both will come motoring down the stretch. 2-WILDWOOD SECRET could be the best of the speed. He showed little on the turf in last but he was narrowly beaten by Bootlegger in his previous start after leading from the gate.

Could see a lot of scratches in this race since it will be contested on the main track. 2-LAWMAKER could be tough. One of my all-time favorite plays is runners turning back from a mile and a sixteenth to seven and a half. Unfortunately, this race will be contested at a mile but think he’s still finish with good energy. 5-STORM APPROACHING showed little at Canterbury in last, in his first start for this barn via claim, after losing his rider in his previous race at Oaklawn. But, he is dropping in class and he could prove to be the best of the speed. 10-STORM’S REFLECTION could press the pace and still finish with something left.

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P 3 Rockin Nelly 4 Lickcreek Molly 5 Scramjet

T 1 Country Hill 2 Soubrette 3 Classy Lassy

P 5 Luckisontheway 6 Luckiestmanalive 1 Business Check

P 6 Belikethis 7 Lets Go Endofaera 8 Graceful Gala

T 1 Bluebird Revival 8 Lotta Lovin 5 Duracell

P 4 Riggins Time 5 Real Cool Cole 6 Brookview Dice

T 10 Country Cube 5 Miss Dovetail 8 Toms Nancy

P 1 Yankee Roller 9 Sonic Flare 6 Bold And Brassy

P 6 Mystical Glance 2 Do Me Better 3 Brooklets Sonic

P 4 Cruisersfoxyjudy 2 All Jk 3 Flirtin Fanera

P 6 Parklane Odds 9 Mach Seelster 3 C’Mon Max

P 7 J B Gram 5 Six Again 2 Henry The Horse

P 5 Pekeson 6 Scootnroll 7 Caribbean King