Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 SWEET LITTLE LISA caught everyone’s attention on debut in a BTL place finish. She had adversity start-to-finish with TROUBLE, ground loss/WIDE, and still made a CLOSE on her stablemate winner, Moment to Shine, before GALLOP+ in front of her after the wire. Rivelli will also send out first time starter, #5 GLADYS ALICE in this spot making her belated debut. She was entered to debut here at Hawthorne back on April 27th (vet scratch) and again on June 14^th at HS Indy, scratched when those races were taken off-the-turf.

#7 VISIONISTA will make her grass debut though physically could find the shift to the TURF her ideal surface. There has been intent to run on the turf noting a scratch with the surface switch here on May 14^th. There could have even been intent to run on the turf this year at the Fair Grounds though with the challenges running on the turf there this season, did not have that option. 

#5 BLURT changes this up dramatically to sprint this afternoon. Following his debut, a statebred stakes race at Finger Lakes, run at 6f he has spent the rest of his career until today at the route distance. He has shown “route speed” though that type of route speed puts him forwardly placed in today’s race and with today’s group. #3 HATCHET CREEK could also find a subtle pace advantage in today’s race shape, a dynamic that could see him naturally more forwardly placed here.

Trip is key for #6 CHRISTMAS PRESENT and could be the reason for the rider change once again this afternoon. His form coming into this race is progressive and buried form from last year that positions him right on par for this event. That is also noted as his races this season all with the higher OFR present a hidden class edge. 

#2 MUD HUT is given a mention coming back today off the pair of “trips” and near excuses returning to the level where she was competitive back on March 9^th. Following that show finish, she was stepped up considerably into allowance company and not ridden (TACTIC-) to compete on the day with the IMPROVE Projection given when she returns to the right level (claiming) for her abilities. She had that change returning on June 14^th, though a complete EX – EXCUSE as she was unprepared in the gate (TROUBLES+) and hopped straight up as the doors opened compromising her chances on the day.

The pace should be honest for MUD HUT to stalk-and-pounce chasing #1 LADA KALINA as she projects to take up a similar front running trip yielding success with the maiden score two weeks ago; #3 PRIMITY coming out of the Fan Duel sprints and even #5 SWEET CRYSTAL projected to be forwardly placed as she returns from the layoff and has shown natural gate speed – the POP PRESSED breaking her maiden here back in October.

#2 REGIMENTAL could turn out to be a clever claim and a maiden no more landing in this field where they hold a solid speed figure edge. Rodriguez making a lateral type move shifting to this circuit and also adding blinkers, that EQUIP? change was projected on OptixNOTES from the May 25^th race. #1 MERLOTTI returns from Churchill Downs last month and back here at Hawthorne in the Special Weight conditions that saw them competitive (B/B- OptixGRADES) earlier this season.

 #4 BLACK RAVEN showed ability in their debut making a solid middle MOVE and GALLOP+. That effort was validated one week later with the BTL run behind heavy favorite Manta Rey. They are given a look here off those races, though also noting the competitive nature of this field and must step up number wise off the June races to win.

#7 MINNESOTA MOON projects to be forwardly placed once again though might not have as much of a pace advantage as it appears on paper. In addition, he has shown a NO_FINISH pattern even when setting a softer/moderate early pace. 

#8 MODIFIER was dominant over the turf the last time he was racing for the $15k tag and has the right to get back to a top effort here. He was overmatched stepped up off the claiming win to allowance company on June 4^th and wheeled back quick where he was compromised from timing to the surface switch and TROUBLE_S out of the gate. On the topic of gate, #1 GATE CREW moves up with the shift back to the turf and the lower OFR for this race compared to the grass race back on May 25^th. That effort aligns with the current every other pattern and should run back to that effort here , he just requires the right trip to win.

With the race staying intact, there should be plenty of early pace signed on. Both #3 FORWARD CURVE and #5 PINBALLER projects to improve with the shift back to grass. That surface switch should also see them return to front running ways - and that RunStyle required to press #2 HURTS SO BAD, one that given the opportunity will try to steal this race on the front end.

The addition of #7 CHEEKERS to this field should also keep the early pace honest as he looks to hold his form coming off the front running (FLOW) win on June 13^th at Fan Duel. #6 MEMPHIS PRAYER is another that should appreciate the early contention and pace to target given his RunStyle. He buried form and deserving of another TURF try, a surface he should physically take to. 

The price should be right with timing for #1 MI CRESCENDO coming back in this spot and out of the June 18^th common race to offer value of that returning group. As far as trip, she was given a near excuse, with the SLOG and legit TROUBLE+ that kept her from competing on the day and losing ground at a crucial point behind front running winner, #5 APOLLO U ANYWHERE. While APOLLO U ANYWHERE was holding on to the lead at the wire, MI CRESCENDO was making up ground and continued to GALLOP+ with the visuals suggesting she has a follow showing up under similar conditions.

#2 GHAALEB’S MAGIC went favored in that June 18^th event and was a vulnerable favorite on the day given the “lone speed” potential (and ultimately the outcome) and trip a hurdle given the rail draw. #4 ARCH FLYER also compromised a bit as she was forced to chase and doing her best to hold place. As far as APOLLO U ANYWHERE coming back today looking to pair wins, she finds a different dynamic with rival #6 HELEN MAE’S SONG in the field as these two have similar early speed and should land in a duel for the lead.

Meraz returns with a pair in this race and with the barn sending out live runners as of late both merit respect. #7 HER GOLD MINE has shown early speed, though early route speed and cutting back to a sprint seems the right move for her (SHORTER OptixNOTE) the distance change should alter her RunStyle and come from off the pace, just as she had in her prior sprint efforts. #8 AUNT STELLA has some tactical speed and back numbers that make her competitive, a combination that could have her in the right time and place here. She recorded a win under similar condition back on May 7^th (coming off a April 30th EX – EXCUSE) and ran a new top that day, which saw her regress in the two races that followed. She returns today with the 25-day freshening, the recovery time she could find favorable to recover and cycle back to a top effort here. 

Block shows up with a pair leading this group: #3 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD could be overlooked in here given the finishing position of her most recent starts. Class wise she was running against solid company, holding her OptixFIG in those races and also had some very subtle, impactful trips on the outcome. She was a NO_PUSH in the Benson on March 25^th, against (X_FLOW) the dynamic with a TRAFFIC trip in April at Keeneland and again against the profile/TACTIC- racing against open company in the May 31^st allowance. She should be sitting on a peak effort today and proven class at this statebred stakes level. #7 OEUVRE is the class of the field and recording some of the stronger figures making her a player on that alone. With that said, this will be her first start around two turns and something to consider as an unknown especially with the shorter price attached.

#5 SUMMER DAY looked to be given the May 31^st return as a PREP off the layoff. She projected to move forward on June 18^th, however, the trip/RANK had her compromised on the day. That is noted with the rider change to Bowen, a rider that has been aboard in the past and while the two are still looking for a win, they have come close including a tight finish (place) in a 2021 statebred stakes race over the Arlington Park turf. #6 KATIE M’LADY has dangerous early speed (Quad I Square) though the complexion of this race (especially OEUVRE stretching out) should have the fractions quicker something she will be tested with late looking to hold for the win. 

The #8 STORM APPROACHING from the Oaklawn Park season should handle this field easily, however current form requires a turnaround. A excuse can be made losing the rider on May 6^th though there was not much in terms of excuse on June 7^th at Canterbury Park. Rosin is likely looking for the change in scenery to assist and the class drop also in play, a move that also suggests they are willing to move on from this gelding. #3 SANDINO’S FANTASY makes a lot of sense in this race. He has enough early speed to make the lead, though is not a confirmed “need the lead” type like others in this field including, #1 SUNDAY MISCHIEF.

#4 LIMA ZULU was fortunate to land on the right side of the June 10th win photo together with pacesetting rival and next out winner, Lagrue. He has shown early speed since the juvenile races last year at Emerald Downs. Keying off those September races, especially the debut, he ran from off the pace that day and showed a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ that does not show as clear on paper.  It does show clear on the Plot looking at Surface/Distance, a major upgrade as a Large Square (similar size to Santino’s Fantasy) in Quad II. 

#3 FROSTED TEMPTATION gave off TURF visuals on debut here (stablemate winner, Simpson Bay) last month and appears a positive surface switch getting to the grass for this second start.

#2 OVERDUE HONOR recorded his career high 77 OptixFIG in the lone turf start back in 2021, a number that stands out by over 10 points from what many of the others in this field have recorded. Roussel was looking for a turf return on May 20^th, the first start back in 615-days though stayed in on the main track. They came up short in the end, though should benefit from the race and even given a “flow upgrade” from the X_FLOW early pace as the race was slowing late.

#10 PIRATE MARMALADE will make their debut here and noted as Perez has been patient waiting for the turf, keying off the similar June 14^th off-the-turf scratch, a race that OVERDUE HONOR also departed from.

#1 ROCKET HOSS is another first time starter and one that projects to get a lot of attention with Rivelli training and Mojica aboard with many stakes winners in the pedigree. ROCKET HOSS is making his belated debut here noting he was picked up last March at the OBS Sale working 10.1 cross-firing in that drill. He has a longer work tab coming around and published moves with gaps going back to last year and somewhere along the way has also been gelded.

As noted the speed figure edge with #9 FAST FORWARD another that at times has recorded strong speed figures. He Is not as consistent with posting those top effort, a number that would be required to win. That is the bigger concern than the surface as he has shown the ability to transfer his form track-to-track and surface-to-surface. 

Hard to determine what we will get from 3-SWEET LITTLE LISA on the main track but worth trying to find out. She has decent works on the main track and there looks to be a decent amount of pace to chase. Let's see if she can rate and rally in here. 7-VISIONISTA chased last out and ran on through the wire in that spot. She makes her second start off the layoff and if she can repeat that last performance I expect she is a factor once again. 4-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN makes her first start off a lengthy layoff. She did show speed in her starts as a 2yo but only one workout off the layoff leaves some concerns.

Wouldn't be surprised if we start to see this barn wake up a bit as runners have done well in the last couple of weeks for trainer Brian Cook. He sends out 6-CHRISTMAS PRESENT as he comes in off an improved effort in his last. There's some pace to the inside to chase as this distance may suit him nicely. 4-SOUPER FORTUNE is one with some speed as he gets some class relief in here. He rated and rallied at this distance in a start here last November and could go that route if the inside runners leave for the top. 3-HATCHET CREEK is another who is at his best over this track. He chased the entire way last out as the only concern in here may be the distance.

It was a good win last out on the front end at Belterra for 1-LADA KALINA but today I expect she looks to rate and run on late. Let's see if Tavares can tuck her in right behind Sweet Crystal early and get the first run on the late closers. 2-MUD HUT has some tactical speed as she comes off a tough trip in her last. She's another that could rate close early and look to go with Lada Kalina in the lane. 3-PRIMITY may sit a bit further back early in here as she faces open company for the first time in her career. She will be hoping for some pace to chase as she should pick up the pieces in the lane.

This is an excellent maiden race as any of these can win. 3-GONE AGAIN comes out of a tough race in his last as he battled the entire way and was beaten by a strong runner in Tahoe Run. There's a little bit of pace on the outside in Minnesota Moon but if he can stalk the pace he could take over late. 2-REGIMENTAL was a good claim in Kentucky it appears last out as we will find out today. He had to chase a very slow pace in his last and still closed late. Things should be a bit quicker upfront in here which could set up for his closing move. 4-BLACK RAVEN stretches out off a good sprint effort in his last. He closed well late in that spot but is likely to show a bit more speed early today.

A really competitive bunch but the speed of the speed has to be 5-APOLLO U ANYWHERE. She ran a big race in her last as she cleared and never looked back. This distance should suit her well as she may be able to repeat that last performance. 2-GHAALEB'S MAGIC rated in the second flight behind Apollo U Anywhere last out and was left to chase the entire way. She was able to run that one down two races back when the pace upfront was contested. With the right setup she could be tough once again. 4-ARCH FLYER tends to stalk the pace and in her last two starts she has shown the ability to finish. This form cycle could be peaking, but with a repeat of her last race she should be right there once again.

This becomes a very tough race to handicap coming off the turf. A horse that is proven on the dirt and could handle the two turns is 9-WHITE LIES. She has enough speed to find a good spot early and gets a strong finishing rider in Lezcano in the saddle. Let's see if she can pull off the upset. 3-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD has some solid turf form but ran a good race while facing similar on the dirt last December. She also won't be too far back in here but figures to take some action today. 5-SUMMER DAY has run a couple of races on the grass this meet but she's just as tough on the dirt as shown in her races three and four starts back. She will need pace to chase but can close some ground in the stretch.

8-STORM APPROACHING scratched out of a spot on Wednesday's card for this spot as he looks to turn things around. He has some speed, but with some others in here with some early sprint speed as well, he may be best off looking to rate and rally. 3-SANTINO'S FANTASY was claimed back into the Vanden Berg barn off a second place effort in his last as he returns in the same spot today. He figures to track the leaders early and will look to rally in the lane. 7-LAMELO was able to grind out a victory last out for a barn that has had a strong meet. He may sit a bit further back early as he will need to repeat that last performance to be there once again.

3-FROSTED TEMPTATION comes in off what was a sneaky good performance in his debut. He rated mid-pack early in that spot in a race that had some traffic troubles early. There is some pace in here but I expect he shows a bit more speed in this spot as well. 6-A P BLAZING GREEN chased in his last and battled late into the lane in that spot. We welcome Rocco Bowen back into the saddle in this spot as he returns from injury. He is a strong rider and should have this runner in the mix the entire way. 9-FAST FORWARD ran improved races in Indiana in his last couple. If he can get to that race from two starts back, he will be very tough once again.

See only one, possibly two, likely scratches for this race but who knows. 3-SWEET LITTLE LISA ran second in her lone start. That race was on turf but she is bred for anything and would imagine that she’ll be giving dirt a try. 7-VISIONISTA finished second in three of her eight starts, including her last here. She displayed the best speed of her career in that last race but lost her rider to another runner in here. Depending on how the first timers run, she could turn out to be the quickest of these. The well-bred 5-GLADYS ALICE, stablemate of “Lisa”, makes her debut. Her works haven’t impressed but she does race for the top barn.

4-SOUPER FORTUNE drops into the right spot. He was claimed for $8500 earlier in the meet and has been mildly competitive versus better runners but he will be far tougher with the drop to his lowest level since late last year. 5-BLURT could be an interesting runner. He tired badly in both local starts but those were route races and he displayed good speed for about six furlongs before running out of gas. Turns back in distance while adding blinkers. Maybe capable of surprising. 2-COUGAR has been in quietly good form. He finished in the money in his last six, dating back to last year. Gets a huge weight break, from 122 to 110, with the move to an apprentice in his irons. Seems like a logical contender.

Had a tough time finding someone to like in this race. Landed on 5-SWEET CRYSTAL. She wired the field to break her maiden here in the fall and then took 10 weeks off before finishing third of four in a Louisiana race. She might have some issues, even her works show breaks in training, but those same drills have been pretty good. 2-MUD HUT figures. She’s dropping in class for this. However, she was running for $6250 earlier in the meet and still couldn’t get the job done. Hard to gauge. 6-HOLY IMAGE drops to her lowest level ever. She hasn’t shown a thing since breaking her maiden at Arlington in 2021 but she’s had only four races since, taking 2022 off entirely, and she’s never been in this easy.

Nice little maiden race with virtually all runners having a realistic chance. The pedigree of 4-BLACK RAVEN screams stretch me out. He ran well to finish third in his debut but far better to finish second in last. Today he stretches out. Can graduate at a square price. 2-REGIMENTAL moves back up in class after getting claimed from last but he’s been competing on a tough circuit. He finished second in that last start, his lone venture into maiden claimers, in a slowly-run race but it was his races last year that suggest he’s a real threat today. 3-GONE AGAIN took a brief lead when stretched out for last but there was no way he was going to beat Tahoe Run that day. He finished six behind that runner but well clear of the rest of the field. His good speed will have him running on or near the lead throughout. 

There is so much speed in this race that you have to expect a late runner to pass them all. I went with 6-MEMPHIS PRAYER. He just finished second in a similar spot when the race was moved from turf to dirt. The pace of this race could be even quicker which should only enhance his chances. Even speed-filled fields are susceptible to one runner grabbing an unchallenged lead while the rest of the speed takes back a bit. I think 2-HURTS SO BAD is the best of the speed. He’s stretching out for the first time in a long time. He wired the field, sprinting, two starts back and didn’t handle the turf in last. But, he might get the jump on them and never look back. 3-FORWARD CURVE never really recovered after a troubled start in last, a race moved to the main track, but he had been in decent form prior. Good tactical speed gives him the luxury of running well on or off the pace but think he’ll be forwardly placed early in this one.

Wanted to pick against 5-APOLLO U ANYWHERE and would have if this race was six furlongs. However, at five and a half, you have to figure she’s going to have enough left to repel late runners after putting away the rest of the speed. 1-MI CRESCENDO is the sleeper in this contest. She had severe traffic trouble in last and couldn’t catch top choice. She finished second in her previous start, beaten by a runner that paid $47 and she was clear of the rest of the field. The pace sets up better for her today. Can surprise with a clean trip.2-GHAALEB’S MAGIC finished in the money in last three, including a victory. She has middling speed which will have her tracking the early pace.

It is slightly possible that this race will be contested on turf but the course is already soaked and more rain is expected. But is shouldn’t matter for multiple stakes winner 7-OEUVRE. She’s equally adept on turf or dirt. She has already bankrolled in excess of $500k. Should add to that today. Not sure that 6-KATIE M’LADY will run if this race does get moved to dirt. This speed-filled mare has had nine turf races, winning five and finishing second in the other four. She didn’t show a thing in her only previous race on dirt. 5-SUMMER DAY is still eligible for a non-winners of three but she is always competitive, on either surface, though both her wins came on the lawn. 9-WHITE LIES could benefit the most if this race is on dirt. She finished behind top choice the last two times they met and probably will again but she could turn out to be the best of the rest. 

3-SANTINO’S FANTASY should be tough. He ran well in all local starts, finishing second twice and graduating in the other. Got claimed back by this barn after they lost him two starts back. 8-STORM APPROACHING is hard to figure. He was claimed for $40k early in the year and came back to run for $20k where he was claimed again. He lost his rider in his next start, then shipped to Canterbury where he went off as the favorite in a 20K claimer but he finished up the track. Now he’s dropping to $6250. Caution is urged. 7-LAMELO just graduated. Like that he fought for the lead most of the race and never game up. He could even improve after getting a trip over the track. 

No idea who will stay in this race but going to look at a couple first timers. 1-ROCKET is a well-bred first timer with strong drills and a barn that knows how to win at first asking. 4-MANEUVER is another making his debut. Runners from his barn often need a race but he’s been working well enough that he has to be considered. Not sure what to do with 2-OVERDUE HONOR. He’s a shipped but might not be here since this race is off the turf. However, he did run well in his two main-track starts.

T 2 Star Hairdresser 3 R No Mercy 4 Bear Necessities

T 4 Southwind Cervesa 5 Frenchy Hanover 8 Olivias Goldnugget

T 2 Hp Extra Ice 6 Muscling Vegas 8 Northern Demi

T 2 Glenfidich 4 Craft Made 1 Cruising Tom

P 3 Silent Lucidity 1 Collusion Hanover 9 Staying With Emily

T 9 Tea Lake 2 Willys Home Run 5 Valuable Miss

T 4 Kinder Thinktwice 5 All Star Yankee 9 Proud To Be Lindy

T 8 Mass Hysteria 7 Believe U Me 4 Baroness Hill

T 1 Rosies War Bonds 3 Angle Of My Dreams 6 Villefranche As

P 2 Warrawee Yoko 10 Top Shelf 8 Ladysmith