Handicapper Tips & Picks

Opens with a competitive race as many in this field taking the right class drop to clear the maiden condition. #5 VOSTRA will run first time for the claiming tag and moves up off their current form and solid effort over today’s course and distance on May 14^th – that B- OptixGRADE and 69 OptixFIG right on par for today’s race.

#1 ANCIENT MAN was scheduled to run under today’s conditions back on June 15^th (vet scratch) with the placement that day moving him up and one that projected to get overlooked off buried form. His effort on April 13^th recorded one of the higher OptixFIG in the field and earned that fourth place finish making a MOVE against (X_BIAS) the track profile that day. He can be given a “flow upgrade” behind open length pacesetting winner Winnemac Avenue on May 4^th and had legit TROUBLE+ at the start on June 4^th. 

Following a similar profile to Race 1, a competitive maiden group with most of this field placed according to their abilities. #1 MINING CAMP making the belated return to maiden claiming company (DROP) the right move for this horse based on their visuals this season. In addition to the DROP visuals, the shift to the TURF should suit this horse. As far as the Special Weight turf race on May 21^st they are upgraded sitting close to a Very Fast early pace and noting the race was spaced out at the wire. Number wise MINING CAMP sits right in line with #4 ELECTIC CHARGE one that could get attention here off the finishing positions though tougher to trust on the win end in this field as they have come up short at this level and will face some new faces in this race.

#8 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was given a follow off his races last year and especially with the return to turf on June 7^th. He continues to earn that follow with the BTL show finish where he had to deal with TRAFFIC, TROUBLE still make a CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the wire.

Olaf Hernandez has had success allowing horses to use their early speed and that is likely to be the tactic used today on #3 MARE’S GUNNER stretching out in distance and taking the class drop shifting to the turf. Overall he must improve and with that said, requires price compensation lacking that edge over others in the field. #5 LITTLE STEVEN following a similar profile stretching out and shifting to the turf for the first time. His debut figure, 76 OptixFIG stacks up as one of the strongest in the field to suggest he can compete on that from though still must step up while making the surface/distance changes and as far as class this is more of a lateral move in terms of OFR from the maiden claiming races in Kentucky.

The shift to the grass should move up #6 MARCHING ORDERS as he visually looks every bit a TURF horse. He requires that move forward though the timing should be right for this one as he has improved number wise with each race and another that returns to the maiden claiming level, a similar condition to where he debuted back in April. #7 NOBLE CREEKER is another that looked to move up shifting back to TURF on June 7^th. The bigger question with him is the ability to step up in class, though saw a sneaky good effort from him in that 5^th place finish with the WIDE trip and strong finish/CLOSE. 

Vanden Berg coming off a two race win day last Thursday is back trending positively and back with #3 LIKE A SALTSHAKER here at Hawthorne. Not only does this horse hold a strong record over this course with strong 92-88 OptixFIG in those three starts, but positive intent also appears in play as he fits this condition to run here without a tag and scratching from a starter allowance at Ellis Park on June 23^rd to run here instead. 

The stumble at the start (TROUBLE_S) on June 1^st for #2 STORM BORN took him out of his RunStyle on a day he projected to be forwardly placed. Not only was not asked (TACTIC-) for run, but he also changed the complexion and the outcome of the race with Option cruising to an open length win and the race as whole did not have any change in running order. That is noted as there is a subtle excuse and coming back under similar conditions today, STORM BORN fits and could get overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions.

#4 KEEN RESPONSE is another with buried form here at Hawthorne and at this condition from early on in the meet. He had a legit EX – EXCUSE with significant TROUBLE+ on April 30^th and returned with a competitive B- OptixGRADE on May 11^th – a GRADE shared with #5 STOLICH on the day. The connections of KEEN RESPONSE have been patiently waiting for this race to go noting a scratch from back on June 25^th when entered in $6250k N3L conditioned race, a race where he would have been running above condition and overmatched against that group.

#3 UNCLE DICK is work a mention here going back to June 18^th when he opened up as the 3-2 favorite and seemed intent on the day. His effort on the track was decent and might have negatively impacted by the prerace WARM-UP making a MOVE. The big test here will be the return to the route distance, a distance he has struggle with stamina wise in the past. 

#8 KENNESAW should offer value in this race and wheeling right back from the $20k claiming event two weeks ago. That spot was taken by default as the connections were looking for a turf sprint scratched twice (6/1 and 6/14) and off the June 22^nd visuals should move up returning to the SHORTER sprint distance today. His class and speed also stacks up on par and buried form with the dirt/main track races against much tougher company this year.

This race changes dramatically if the race is moved to the main track (listen to the prerace show in that case and you should be every day regardless!) with many in this field that could be looking for the dirt based on their form. #4 EXPROMPT was compromised with the surface switch when returning on June 14^th from the lengthy 339-day layoff. He had some other questions that day not only with the long layoff, but also running first time for the claiming tag – a combination that often comes with reservations, especially at the shorter price as he was on the day. Off the visuals, he had TROUBLE_S losing his footing out of the gate and race WIDE on hold/NO_PUSH and coming back in three weeks in this spot, the turf and Emigh back aboard is a positive sign here.

#5 DRAGON DREW was also slightly compromised with the June 14^th surface switch especially with the rail draw. He does not hold the same early speed on the dirt as he does on the turf and that created a subtle trip for him that day and still a competitive effort making a CLOSE after the SLOG to finish third. #6 GRAND HIDEAWAY entered for that June 14^th race decided to scratch with the surface switch and is logical back under similar conditions from the win on May 28^th (and November 13^th last season) though should be a shorter price in this competitive group with that “1” sitting on top of the past performances.

#10 STAR OF KODIAK is tougher to trust on the win end with his deep closing RunStyle and today’s 5f distance, though should be moving up late and logical for a share. Outside of trip, he should move up following Kennesaw from the June 22^nd race back to the one-turn here and subtle class change with his form this season on par and in line with others in this field. 

#2 QUEENS UP moves up coming off the layoff and significant change in class from the Oaklawn Park races this year. She was just short on the win end, though held her form race-to-race was just overmatched when it came to the top spot settling for the minors. The change in class/circuit moves her up in today’s race and in the right spot to regain some confidence.

#5 BERAVINA should benefit from the racing returning from the layoff back in May at HS Indy and moving to an outer post. This will be her first start back on the main track and sprinting conditions when filtering her past performances have yielded the better race results. Overall she does not hold much of an edge even on her best day with the best things going for her here the positively trending barn and her ability to show early speed. The opposite end of the pace: #6 STYLE has a solid late kick and form coming back from the place finish here on June 1^st and overall preferred of these two especially if longer odds to round out the exacta with QUEENS UP. 

Looking at OptixPLOT, #2 WILDWOOD SECRET should hold a strong pace advantage (Quad I Square above the Par Line) in this event. His form cycle and trainer intent is also positive keying off the “every other” pattern that comes with the change (DROP) in class and noted with the B OptixGRADE recorded on May 4^th under similar conditions.

There is another group of horses that hold wins at today’s restricted claiming condition this season. The two horses #5 BORN AGAIN GEORGE and #7 NYOMAN could receive attention off that alone and while clearly capable, they return off those wins with “Red” OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines as downgrades playing back at a shorter price.

#3 IDEA MAN has the win at this condition back on May 28^th and coming off a subtle trip (TROUBLE_S, WIDE) against a higher claiming class on June 18^th. #6 KING TITO has his win at this level and distance from early on in the meet from March 19^th. His form declined off that top effort though has stared to cycle forward with the improving OptixGRADE/FIG and could be overlooked today in favor of others and at the same time sitting on a peak effort.

#1 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER also with a win under similar conditions, surface/distance back on May 4^th. His RunStyle and projected trip (Quad IV Square) could be tougher to work the win, though should be moving up late to get into the mix. 

#10 STORM’S REFLECTION earned a follow with a sneaky good, B- OptixGRADE effort with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. He improved off that race finishing second on June 7^th with another subtle trip and game effort behind a well-intended winner, Bruce Banner that day.

#3 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN is a longer shot in this race to keep on the radar and one that is tougher to dismiss on the OptixPLOT. He will return to the turf for the first time since last season and the route distance in this third start back off the layoff. He has improved and stepped up off a similar “two sprints to a route” pattern in the past and should be under the radar today off the recent running lines.

CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN requires pace to run at Quad IV Square, though the pace could be honest (Red PlotFit) with some layoff returning runners and others stretching out in distance for this race. #2 LAWMAKER is another that could “trip” out looking at OptixPLOT and position as a tracking Square in Quad II around the ParLine. One of those layoff return runners, #9 BAILEYS RUN can be upgraded on Standard/Quad I Square, though in terms of distance (shift to Quad III) has shown limitations (ONE_TURN) and the NO_FINISH pattern in their two-turn races.