Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 SWEET LITTLE LISA caught everyone’s attention on debut in a BTL place finish. She had adversity start-to-finish with TROUBLE, ground loss/WIDE, and still made a CLOSE on her stablemate winner, Moment to Shine, before GALLOP+ in front of her after the wire. Rivelli will also send out first time starter, #5 GLADYS ALICE in this spot making her belated debut. She was entered to debut here at Hawthorne back on April 27th (vet scratch) and again on June 14^th at HS Indy, scratched when those races were taken off-the-turf.

#7 VISIONISTA will make her grass debut though physically could find the shift to the TURF her ideal surface. There has been intent to run on the turf noting a scratch with the surface switch here on May 14^th. There could have even been intent to run on the turf this year at the Fair Grounds though with the challenges running on the turf there this season, did not have that option. 

#5 BLURT changes this up dramatically to sprint this afternoon. Following his debut, a statebred stakes race at Finger Lakes, run at 6f he has spent the rest of his career until today at the route distance. He has shown “route speed” though that type of route speed puts him forwardly placed in today’s race and with today’s group. #3 HATCHET CREEK could also find a subtle pace advantage in today’s race shape, a dynamic that could see him naturally more forwardly placed here.

Trip is key for #6 CHRISTMAS PRESENT and could be the reason for the rider change once again this afternoon. His form coming into this race is progressive and buried form from last year that positions him right on par for this event. That is also noted as his races this season all with the higher OFR present a hidden class edge. 

#2 MUD HUT is given a mention coming back today off the pair of “trips” and near excuses returning to the level where she was competitive back on March 9^th. Following that show finish, she was stepped up considerably into allowance company and not ridden (TACTIC-) to compete on the day with the IMPROVE Projection given when she returns to the right level (claiming) for her abilities. She had that change returning on June 14^th, though a complete EX – EXCUSE as she was unprepared in the gate (TROUBLES+) and hopped straight up as the doors opened compromising her chances on the day.

The pace should be honest for MUD HUT to stalk-and-pounce chasing #1 LADA KALINA as she projects to take up a similar front running trip yielding success with the maiden score two weeks ago; #3 PRIMITY coming out of the Fan Duel sprints and even #5 SWEET CRYSTAL projected to be forwardly placed as she returns from the layoff and has shown natural gate speed – the POP PRESSED breaking her maiden here back in October.

#2 REGIMENTAL could turn out to be a clever claim and a maiden no more landing in this field where they hold a solid speed figure edge. Rodriguez making a lateral type move shifting to this circuit and also adding blinkers, that EQUIP? change was projected on OptixNOTES from the May 25^th race. #1 MERLOTTI returns from Churchill Downs last month and back here at Hawthorne in the Special Weight conditions that saw them competitive (B/B- OptixGRADES) earlier this season.

 #4 BLACK RAVEN showed ability in their debut making a solid middle MOVE and GALLOP+. That effort was validated one week later with the BTL run behind heavy favorite Manta Rey. They are given a look here off those races, though also noting the competitive nature of this field and must step up number wise off the June races to win.

#7 MINNESOTA MOON projects to be forwardly placed once again though might not have as much of a pace advantage as it appears on paper. In addition, he has shown a NO_FINISH pattern even when setting a softer/moderate early pace. 

#8 MODIFIER was dominant over the turf the last time he was racing for the $15k tag and has the right to get back to a top effort here. He was overmatched stepped up off the claiming win to allowance company on June 4^th and wheeled back quick where he was compromised from timing to the surface switch and TROUBLE_S out of the gate. On the topic of gate, #1 GATE CREW moves up with the shift back to the turf and the lower OFR for this race compared to the grass race back on May 25^th. That effort aligns with the current every other pattern and should run back to that effort here , he just requires the right trip to win.

With the race staying intact, there should be plenty of early pace signed on. Both #3 FORWARD CURVE and #5 PINBALLER projects to improve with the shift back to grass. That surface switch should also see them return to front running ways - and that RunStyle required to press #2 HURTS SO BAD, one that given the opportunity will try to steal this race on the front end.

The addition of #7 CHEEKERS to this field should also keep the early pace honest as he looks to hold his form coming off the front running (FLOW) win on June 13^th at Fan Duel. #6 MEMPHIS PRAYER is another that should appreciate the early contention and pace to target given his RunStyle. He buried form and deserving of another TURF try, a surface he should physically take to. 

The price should be right with timing for #1 MI CRESCENDO coming back in this spot and out of the June 18^th common race to offer value of that returning group. As far as trip, she was given a near excuse, with the SLOG and legit TROUBLE+ that kept her from competing on the day and losing ground at a crucial point behind front running winner, #5 APOLLO U ANYWHERE. While APOLLO U ANYWHERE was holding on to the lead at the wire, MI CRESCENDO was making up ground and continued to GALLOP+ with the visuals suggesting she has a follow showing up under similar conditions.

#2 GHAALEB’S MAGIC went favored in that June 18^th event and was a vulnerable favorite on the day given the “lone speed” potential (and ultimately the outcome) and trip a hurdle given the rail draw. #4 ARCH FLYER also compromised a bit as she was forced to chase and doing her best to hold place. As far as APOLLO U ANYWHERE coming back today looking to pair wins, she finds a different dynamic with rival #6 HELEN MAE’S SONG in the field as these two have similar early speed and should land in a duel for the lead.

Meraz returns with a pair in this race and with the barn sending out live runners as of late both merit respect. #7 HER GOLD MINE has shown early speed, though early route speed and cutting back to a sprint seems the right move for her (SHORTER OptixNOTE) the distance change should alter her RunStyle and come from off the pace, just as she had in her prior sprint efforts. #8 AUNT STELLA has some tactical speed and back numbers that make her competitive, a combination that could have her in the right time and place here. She recorded a win under similar condition back on May 7^th (coming off a April 30th EX – EXCUSE) and ran a new top that day, which saw her regress in the two races that followed. She returns today with the 25-day freshening, the recovery time she could find favorable to recover and cycle back to a top effort here. 

Block shows up with a pair leading this group: #3 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD could be overlooked in here given the finishing position of her most recent starts. Class wise she was running against solid company, holding her OptixFIG in those races and also had some very subtle, impactful trips on the outcome. She was a NO_PUSH in the Benson on March 25^th, against (X_FLOW) the dynamic with a TRAFFIC trip in April at Keeneland and again against the profile/TACTIC- racing against open company in the May 31^st allowance. She should be sitting on a peak effort today and proven class at this statebred stakes level. #7 OEUVRE is the class of the field and recording some of the stronger figures making her a player on that alone. With that said, this will be her first start around two turns and something to consider as an unknown especially with the shorter price attached.

#5 SUMMER DAY looked to be given the May 31^st return as a PREP off the layoff. She projected to move forward on June 18^th, however, the trip/RANK had her compromised on the day. That is noted with the rider change to Bowen, a rider that has been aboard in the past and while the two are still looking for a win, they have come close including a tight finish (place) in a 2021 statebred stakes race over the Arlington Park turf. #6 KATIE M’LADY has dangerous early speed (Quad I Square) though the complexion of this race (especially OEUVRE stretching out) should have the fractions quicker something she will be tested with late looking to hold for the win. 

The #8 STORM APPROACHING from the Oaklawn Park season should handle this field easily, however current form requires a turnaround. A excuse can be made losing the rider on May 6^th though there was not much in terms of excuse on June 7^th at Canterbury Park. Rosin is likely looking for the change in scenery to assist and the class drop also in play, a move that also suggests they are willing to move on from this gelding. #3 SANDINO’S FANTASY makes a lot of sense in this race. He has enough early speed to make the lead, though is not a confirmed “need the lead” type like others in this field including, #1 SUNDAY MISCHIEF.

#4 LIMA ZULU was fortunate to land on the right side of the June 10th win photo together with pacesetting rival and next out winner, Lagrue. He has shown early speed since the juvenile races last year at Emerald Downs. Keying off those September races, especially the debut, he ran from off the pace that day and showed a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ that does not show as clear on paper.  It does show clear on the Plot looking at Surface/Distance, a major upgrade as a Large Square (similar size to Santino’s Fantasy) in Quad II. 

#3 FROSTED TEMPTATION gave off TURF visuals on debut here (stablemate winner, Simpson Bay) last month and appears a positive surface switch getting to the grass for this second start.

#2 OVERDUE HONOR recorded his career high 77 OptixFIG in the lone turf start back in 2021, a number that stands out by over 10 points from what many of the others in this field have recorded. Roussel was looking for a turf return on May 20^th, the first start back in 615-days though stayed in on the main track. They came up short in the end, though should benefit from the race and even given a “flow upgrade” from the X_FLOW early pace as the race was slowing late.

#10 PIRATE MARMALADE will make their debut here and noted as Perez has been patient waiting for the turf, keying off the similar June 14^th off-the-turf scratch, a race that OVERDUE HONOR also departed from.

#1 ROCKET HOSS is another first time starter and one that projects to get a lot of attention with Rivelli training and Mojica aboard with many stakes winners in the pedigree. ROCKET HOSS is making his belated debut here noting he was picked up last March at the OBS Sale working 10.1 cross-firing in that drill. He has a longer work tab coming around and published moves with gaps going back to last year and somewhere along the way has also been gelded.

As noted the speed figure edge with #9 FAST FORWARD another that at times has recorded strong speed figures. He Is not as consistent with posting those top effort, a number that would be required to win. That is the bigger concern than the surface as he has shown the ability to transfer his form track-to-track and surface-to-surface.