Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 MISS MELODY is the speed of the speed in the race. She returns from a game effort to finish second, still recording the B OptixGRADE on June 21 when making a RUSH into a fast (X_FLOW) pace and getting run down late by I Don’t Know Margo. While she has those advantages coming back today and to a shorter distance, she does project to deal with contention once again with #5 KITTY MACLEAN and #6 CRYSTAL SNOW in the field.

The pace contention could benefit #2 IGGY BIGS, one that looks to be a threat in her own ride. This will be her first start in for the claiming tag since her maiden win back in 2021 and the higher $25k tag today offsets some concerns with the class change. The barn is likely looking for the right spot where she can compete, and numbers and class stack up at this level. She has been entered a couple times this season back in April with some setbacks missing training in May though has recorded strong works, characteristic for her leading up to this event.

Overall there is not much between IGGY BIGS and #4 BEG BORROW N STEAL as far as numbers and OptixPlot position that is tough to discount when trying to give preference. The tradeoff here is IGGY appears to have intent returning in this spot off the layoff, where BEG has recency on her side. 

Rivelli shows up with a pair in this race giving preference to #1 MOMENT TO SHINE. She will return to take on winners for the first time though has foundation going back to a competitive, yet tough trip on debut against quality company and rebounded coming back from the layoff last month showing class to get the win. In terms of her running style she has been able to rate and finish, something that appears key in this race. Her stablemate, #6 SPECIALIZIN is very quick, with legit early speed. There are others in this field that project to show early speed as well with #4 R KATIEBUG setting a fast pace (a slower pace set on the lead for #3 MYSWEETANNALYZE in debut win) breaking her maiden on debut.

#7 BELPERRON is also capable of showing early speed, though has also shown the ability to press/stalk-and-pounce, and with the outside draw could fall into a favorable trip. #2 MAGNA MASSA is a tougher read in terms of pace as she likely wants to be forwardly placed, though has shown throughout her career a pattern of SLOG, including the allowance here on June 22^nd. She was also SLOG back on April 2^nd though also put forward a BTL race that day earning a follow and must improve off the C+ last month, though projects another honest effort for a share. 

This race staying on the turf seems like a longshot, though if it remains on the grass #2 CELESTIAL SPIN one that has not had a legit chance to run on the grass this meet. The EX – EXCUSE with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th and poor timing (TACTIC-) with the WIDE trip on June 4^th has not allowed her a fair chance to compete and given a look back in this spot run under similar conditions. She is preferred on the turf, though can make a case off some of her main track races from back in 2021, those races fit with today’s field.

It appears more reasonable to handicap this race for the main track and will assume the field stays intact: #1 PRANCIPANTS has found her top form this season and returning to the May 18^th and June 4^th efforts becomes a player in this spot and event the controlling speed. There are others in the field likely to take up a forward position with #8 ROMANTIC ATTACK projecting to establish position from the outside and similar for #7 ZANDREA’S coming back from the June 18^th race against (X_FLOW) the extreme (SPACED) dynamic. #3 TIMELESS GLORY has also shown early speed when needed, such as the June 25^th match race. She is more effort with a stalk and pounce trip, similar to the June 11^th race and the two races from earlier this season at Tampa Bay Downs.

#4 ON A TOUR has benefit from the surface switch and races coming off the turf throughout her career and could be what the connections were looking for today. While this is technically a step up in class, the race OFR is similar today to the main track route races in her two more recent starts; and a drop in class from the higher Optional Claiming races back in December – both efforts earning 74-76 OptixFIG. #6 COMMAND POINT could set the trip, however, is unknown on the main track or if she will stay in this race noting there are many “Off-Turf” scratches in her past performance that show up on OptixGRID, something that is not seen in the standard past performances. 

Perez sends out a pair in this race with a case to be made for both runners: #2 ARMAVIR was given a look showing up on this circuit and keying off the STRONG debut at Meydan featuring Group/Stakes winners. He did not seem prepared in his May 18^th local debut and perhaps similar when returning just 10-days later with the shorter sprint distance. To his credit he did improve slightly on numbers and another move forward is projected with the DROP and stretch back out in distance. #5 ICE VORTEX will make a main track debut, though the change is less of a concern as he was entered for the main track at the Fair Grounds in February and also here for the $15k tag on April 30^th. As far as his races returning on the turf, he looked to be given/PREP the May 21^st race and had legit issues in running from TROUBLE_S to significant ground loss (X_WIDE) on June 7^th.

The class DROP has been waiting for #3 GOLD SMOKE after the connections stepped up to Special Weight following the place finish back in April. He has been able to hold his form and numbers, just not to the level of his competition to win and moves up with the class change and in with today’s group. As far as #1 GHOST BIKE, his March 9^th effort at the Fair Grounds (shown in Past 3 Runlines/OptixPLOT), however, he appeared well-intended on June 7^th at HS Indy and lacked any excuse (some excuse on 5/2) with the NO_FINISH after contested on a SLOW/S early pace. A similar Very Slow/VS and NO_FINISH for #6 LARRY THE POET on June 15^th creates some reservations as well – and especially as the two project to take wagering support based on their connections. 

#2 SAMARITA fits today’s race shape and overdue for a win this season. She put forward a BTL effort on April 23^rd and came back to “win” on May 7th albeit riderless after losing (TROUBLES+) Mojica at the start.  Since that race she was compromised with the trip (TACTIC-, TRAFFIC, TROUBLE) on May 31^st still recording a B- OptixGRADE with the fourth place run and improved her OptixFIG with the B- OptixGRADE on June 11^th with Tavares aboard, the returning rider today. 

#3 I’M BOX OFFICE earned a follow off her races last year at HS Indy, both races visually more competitive than it appears “on paper” and validated those efforts with a dominant, B+ OptixGRADE, win breaking her maiden off the layoff last month. She projects to move forward and handle the class rise given the Grade. As far as the main track, should that come into play, the surface is an unknown though perhaps the connections can provide insight whether they stay in or scratch from the race.

Stablemate #8 TAR HEEL GIRL has the benefit of main track experience, the course where she broke her maiden earlier this season. She had a look that day keying off her Gulfstream debut showing run with legit TROUBLES+ and projected to IMPROVE. She was able to hold her form against allowance company on June 8^th over the turf in a subtle trip (TACTIC-) that will see a rider change and the blinkers added today.

The main track was intended for #10 DIALED INNA when entered as MTO under similar allowance conditions on June 21^st. She fits back under similar conditions from the April 13^th race making a MOVE against/X_BIAS as well as the BLANKET finish on May 7^th. #11 STYLE wheels right back for this race and finds a subtle class drop as well as added ground stretching back out to a route. Overall improvement from the race last week is expected noting she acted up, fractious in the GATE leading to a SLOG suggesting she might have lost her race before it started. 

The connections of #5 WEST WARPATH were entered for the $10k tag looking to run on the turf (scratch with the surface switch) on July 5^th. The class change coming off an allowance win had some overall concerns more than the surface, though as they must run for the $13.5k tag today the change might not be as concerning as they did claim this horse for $7.5k back in March.

#8 TRY TRY AGAIN won at this level back on April 23^rd and finds a similar pattern with the “every other” race result returning here for Zawitz. #6 FOLLOW THE SIGNS projects to be shorter of the two coming back today off a win, that “1” sitting on top of the past performances. To his credit, he also holds a win at this conditions back on April 2^nd though was BIAS aided with the WEATHER conditions making it tougher for horses to pass in the stretch.

#7 FULL MAGAZINE also shows up with an upgrade in his form cycle, however, must prove he can run his top effort here at Hawthorne, something he has struggled with in the past, recording his higher figures at Fairmount/FanDuel.

#3 TIMEHASCOME had a class test last month stepping up to starter allowance company and held his own setting a solid/X_FLOW pace and getting caught tiring as the race was slowing late. To his credit, he also improved his OptixFIG that day. The 83 OptixFIG is on the lower end of OFR, though could again be the controlling speed (Quad I Square) in the race to hold again for a share. #11 PAYSTER did not have much turf or two-turn form to suggest the placement on June 22^nd was to give this horse a race coming back off the layoff. He returns to the main track and sprint distance, more familiar conditions, though to win requires a top effort, form from his juvenile season in 2020 and efforts he has rarely produced.

#2 GUN RUSH will again look to be the king of the finale and looking to continue his current win streak. He had the edge over his competition and pace pressure in the races this season though could find himself tested early with #6 GITA’S LAD in the race and dropping from the higher $40k OC events and capable of running with GUN RUSH early. As far as GITA’S LAD there does appear intent today with the class drop and Santiago, the win rider back aboard.

Those two in the race are projected to take the bulk of wagering support as they are quite logical as individuals, though could create a trip for others in this race should they go at right from the start. #8 FIRST MASAMUNE comes into this race on a positive “every other” pattern and earned the B OptixGRADE on June 1^st to suggest he can compete for the top spot at this level. Trip is key for #3 GLOBAL EMPIRE, though could find the right pace scenario at the right time as he has run competitive races under similar conditions this meet.  

#9 PINEDALE should be a longshot in this race and overlooked off his recent running lines. He has just the one race in his career that can win today, the May 14^th race. That effort came in the third start off the layoff setting him up with subtle trips, a similar form cycle pattern today and could be sitting on that peak effort once again.