Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race is likely to shift to the main track and overall the surface should be neutral for the runners in this field. #6 DESSERT FIRST should also move up in this spot exiting the June 8^th common race showing run after a SLOG racing in TRAFFIC and against/X_FLOW the race shape chasing a Very Slow pace. She fits back under similar N2L claiming conditions keying off the BTL effort on May 4^th.

#5 LORRAINE’S LEGACY finds herself back on the main track and with a significant class drop -- and while that often can be a concern, in her case it makes sense as the visuals suggest she requires a DROP. This will be her second start off the layoff; going back to June 8^th she stumbled at the start (TROUBLE_S) raced WIDE and never looked to be a threat or intended especially with stablemate Tar Heel Girl the more fancied on the day and finishing second. Both fillies on the drop fit in this race and given the connections DESSERT FIRST could be longer of the two with price being the separator on the pair.

Longshot #3 GOTTA BE KITTEN ME was tough to back coming off a very long, 1580-day layoff back in April. She had a legit excuse (TROUBLES+) and since that race has started to improve with each start. She requires another move forward though if there is that move, this could be the time, Her physicality suggests the added ground will be okay and going back to her juvenile season prior to the layoff was running figures that stack up with today’s par and field. 

#5 DEVIL’S TOWER was claimed back in May and has been given a freshening (also the required time with the circuit switch) since that race for Hernandez and races here protected. In terms of class, he had been running in a similar OFR and purse this season to suggest he is in the right spot here to compete. His RunStyle and Plot position fit today’s race shape as does the outside draw for this compact field. Following this horse going back to 2021 he prefers to race outside horses and many of the “trips” in his career came when draw inside. 

Perez shows up with a pair in this race and potential intent. #3 AMBER EDGE debuted last month though was GREEN breaking SLOW and under minimal ask from off the pace just allowed to jog along. He has posted a work since and returns with a rider change with all factors to suggest he could show more in this second start. The published work tab for #5 LAUREATE is noting flashy (compared to the bullet recorded by rival #4 LIL RIVER back in June), though has consistency. The rider assignment with Mojica catches the eye as these two pair up for the first time this year though have had success together in the past.

#1 SILVER CHILLER has recorded some of the higher figures in this field though again takes on open company, a condition that saw him struggle on June 18^th. #6 WICKED WOW also returns from that event to make his second start and some improvement could be seen in this second start noting the SLOG and NO_PUSH first out. Fellow second time starter, #2 GOD GUNS N GUTS steps up shifting to this circuit as well as class running against open today – a vet scratch from July 1^st at FanDuel is also noted. 

Tactical speed looks to be key given the complexion of this race shape. #5 DREAM STREAK returns and under similar conditions where he lacked finish (and acted up in the GATE) over a sealed track on May 14^th and lacked similar finish last month. #2 BALI DREAMIN could be overlooked with the June 23^rd race sitting on top of her past performances; a race where she was compromised with the TROUBLES+ and taken out of her RunStyle and projects to return to her front running ways.

#4 LOVE OF MY LIFE is not a true front runner, however, has enough tactical speed and projects to be more forwardly placed in this spot and with the circuit switch. She exits the races in Kentucky, a lateral move for this allowance and given a “flow upgrade” chasing Very Fast early paces in this most recent starts.

#3 SALLY’S SURPRISE did surprise with the move forward on June 29^th showing a lot of run in a race where she appeared overmatched. She made a move and continued to run to the wire making up ground and GALLOP+ past the wire. She has improved number wise with each start and fits as an improving type with numbers not far off many in this field.

That includes #6 STYLE, with her RunStyle from off the pace and trip becomes the main hurdle - and the main knock at an expected shorter number. 

#5 G T FIVE HUNDRED fits in this spot and in his second start on this circuit. Going back to his May 28^th start, he had adversity with the trip and TROUBLE and also at a time when Mason was cold still looking for her runners to fire on this circuit. The barn has headed up since and the placement here back in for the claiming tag, the placement where he was competitive and dominated (B+ OptixGRADE) breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park.

#7 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR has been entered to start a couple times this meet, and those days cancelled makes his return here. Excusing the turf start at Ellis Park and the 2022 finale on the Canterbury Park closing day card (followed up by a 284-day layoff) his consistency in speed figures (OptixFIG in the 80’s) noted within today’s par. #2 TABLE MONEY has spent most of his career protected and races today for the tag. His only other time for the claiming tag was the maiden claiming win back in April. The change suggests he is in a better placement here than the June 7^th allowance, or the $62.5k Optional Claiming event he scratched from on June 25^th. 

This race is unlikely to stay on the turf and could upgrade/downgrade runners with that surface switch. On class, #1 ANOTHER MYSTERY stands out. He is looking to get back to winning ways since winning this race last year, though has continued to hold his form and pick up checks in competitive graded stakes races. As far as the main track that is a total unknown though tough to hold against him never given the chance though has been able to translate his form from turf course-to-course, varying distances and on different synthetic surfaces. Stablemate #6 POWER THOUGH has not shown the same level of class and speed. He does also have one main track start, a sprint against statebred allowance company back in October 2021 recording a 52 OptixFIG.

Intent appears in play for #8 TEMPER TANTRUM as he makes his second start off the layoff and finishes second in this stakes race last year. He was able to get some fitness picking up the June 15^th win and with a favorable trip should not take too much out of him as he returns in this spot. The main track is unknown as it is tough to try and compare his two dirt races with those starts sprinting as a juvenile.

The main track shift should assist #2 WILDWOOD SICILIAN as he returns to stakes company for the first time since his juvenile campaign – winner of the 2021 Sun Power Stakes. He comes into this race from a diet of sprint races, and ideally prefers the one turn, though has been able to stretch his speed around two turns at times keying off his record last year. #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES has the distance edge of the two and also main track form as well as current form with a progressive pattern in this third start off the layoff. He will look to sit off Wildwood Sicilian and look for first run, a trip that has assisted him in the past and fits here.

#7 HUEY ATTACK has main track form, however, is lighter overall and distance wise makes his route return for the first time since June 2021 appearing on the Arlington Park turf course. Similar class concerns come into play with the former Block pair, #3 IOYA AGAIN and #5 LAND MARK DEAL with their connections taking a shot here. 

#6 BLACK RUSSIAN fits at today’s maiden claiming level and just needs himself to overcome to win. He has shown a pattern of SLOG in each start this season, and that habit leaving him compromised and too much to do late. The rider change to Blanche suggests in intent and the added ground with the extended sprint distance should assist late. Stablemate #7 JACKPOT BOY could be even further off the pace as he cuts back to a sprint for this race.

#5 DEVLISH HOUR seemed logical on June 25^th, though cane up short without excuse on the day. He has run well and competitive races from September last year at CBY and the play finish here on May 21stwith the WIDE. Felix will take over today as the seventh rider in as many starts and likely to be aggressive, a tactic that could prove effective in this race – and the edge over the other projected pacesetters, #1 BLUE TEARDROPS and #4 UNCAPTURED DREAM.

#3 NOBLE CREEKER projects to be a longer priced runner on the board and shift into overlay territory if that is the case. He needs a lot in his favor to win, though compared to many in this race that expect to be shorter on the board, he is right in line number wise.

#2 KATHAAN has run well in each start this season (including Keeneland) racing against the flow (X_FLOW) and against the SPACED, extreme race shape on June 22^nd making a late CLOSE. The potential surface switch remains a question mark, though as far as pace, she should have a mire contentious pace today with many front runners in this field and many of those front runners stretching out in distance front sprint races. Her stablemate #8 MY LIPS ARE SEALED returns from the same June 22^nd race and perhaps gain more attention with the place, BLANKET finish, though had a more favorable FLOW trip of the two on the day.