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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed July 12th, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Judy's Ms. Officer - 3/1 3 Miss Melody - 5/2 2 Iggy Bigs - 6/1

1-JUDY’S MS OFFICER could be on track to make it two in a row. She had a near perfect trip in last, helped along by her “rabbit” stablemate and grabbed the lead it the stretch. She could get the same kind of strong pace ahead of her in this spot. 3-MISS MELODY could be the best of the speed. Her five wins are allowed in this non-winners of two because they came at the expense of easier rivals ($20k or less). She came up a little short in last, her Hawthorne debut, but she was making her first start in over three months. Figures to be much tougher today, especially if she can secure an easy lead. 2-IGGY BIGGS is an interesting runner. She’s taking blinkers off for this, her first start of the year, and she seemed to be a much better runner last year when she ran without them. A series of enticing drills should have her ready to run and the pace figures to set up well for her come-from-behind running style.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Specializin - 5/2 1 Moment to Shine - 7/2 7 Belperron - 4/1

Wouldn’t say 6-SPECIALIZIN was a “lock” but she finished second in her two starts since she was claimed from a maiden special at Churchill  and fought for the lead much of the way in both races. This will be the first time that she runs with the benefit of a recent race under her. Think she’ll be at the top of her game. 1-MOMENT TO SHINE I fresh off her maiden victory. Interestingly, that win was scored on turf and I figured she was only in the race to make it go for stablemate Specializin. However, her debut race was in a tough Churchill contest and she finished third. Maybe she’s the better of the two. 7-BELPERRON makes her first start of the year off good works. It’s possible that she’ll need a race but she ran well to finish third the last time she came off a layoff. She’s been in some tough races and many she faced came back to win their next starts. Maybe it’s her turn. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Command Point - 1/1 1 Prancipants - 9/2 4 On a Tour - 8/1

On or off the turf? That is the question. But I feel safe picking 6-COMMAND POINT. She’s fresh off a daylight win at this level and she beat many of these rivals in that contest. However, doubt if she’ll run if this race does get moved to the main track. If the race does get moved, 1-PRANCIPANTS could be tough and that could be the case even if this race does stay on. She beat top pick on the turf two races back, giving her three wins in a row, and she finished second to that rival in last. She won eight races, however, and only one of those races was on the lawn. 4-ON A TOUR was good here last year; this year not so much. However, she was claimed from her last two and her new barn does do well with their claims. Although she does have a pair of turf victories, think she would be better on the main track.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Larry the Poet - 4/5 1 Ghost Bike - 3/1 3 Gold Smoke - 8/1

6-LARRY THE POET tired late in both races but both were against maiden specials. Drops into maiden claimers for the first time. We know he has the speed. At this level he might also have the staying power. 1-GHOST BIKE is another who always faced tougher. Displayed better than his normal speed in his last outing. Figures prominently in his local debut. 3-GOLD SMOKE shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s had more starts than the top pair combined. However, in his only previous venture into maiden claimers, he finished second in a race at this level and he went off as the favorite.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 First Kitten - 7/5 4 Go Stormin Girl - 8/1 6 First Squadron - 10/1

There are no “mortal locks” in horse racing but 5-FIRST KITTEN could represent what one might look like. She’s been victorious in six of her 11 local races, including last at this level, and seems to enjoy the speed advantage once again, though she has been able to score from right off the pace. The Brian Cook-trained pair of 4-GO STORMIN GIRL and 6-FIRST SQUADRON could have the best chance to upset. First Squadron might be the only one capable of softening First Kitten up with a speed duel while Go Stormin Girl will come running late and could benefit from a fast pace.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
10 Dialed Inna - 4/1 4 Journeyist - 5/2 3 I'm Box Office - 6/1 2 Cat Royale - 12/1

Guessing this race will come off the turf since the weatherman is predicting considerable rain…but we’ll see. 10-DIALED INNA was entered main track only. Her last two turf races were awful but she’s been in great form in main-track sprints. She’ll be charging late and has a great chance of getting there. 4-JOURNEYIST could be tough on either surface but she might be at her best on turf. She lost her last two turf starts by miniscule margins, a head and a nose. She just missed wiring the field in her lone dirt route, passed late by top pick and one other, but she was still only a neck back. 3-I’M BOX OFFICE was an impressive maiden turf winner in her lone start here. She wasn’t nearly as impressive in her first two starts last year but she seemed to mature well. Could earn her second straight victory. 2-CAT ROYALE could turn out to be the best of the speed.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 West Warpath - 9/2 3 Timehascome - 4/1 10 Shackleford Strong - 3/1

Pretty open race as these starters usually are but landed on 5-WEST WARPATH. He was claimed a couple times at Turfway earlier this year but he’s done nothing but improve since getting claimed by this barn. Allowance winner of last should be perfectly placed behind the early speed. Can run by late. 3-TIMEHASCOME is the best of the speed and he’s been in terrific form for months. He finished in the money in his last eight; a streak that includes four wins and three seconds. Not sure any in here can keep up with him early and if he doesn’t face any early pressure, he’ll have plenty left to hold off the late runners. 10-SHACKLEFORD STRONG is another in good form. He won three of his last five and narrowly missed in the other. He might be the only one in here really capable of pressuring Timehascome but that kind of race could compromise his own chances.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Gun Rush - 9/5 6 Gita's Lad - 5/2 5 Jeff the Lion - 5/1

There’s a good chance that 2-GUN RUSH will just say bye bye. He hadn’t shown a lot prior to getting here but he’s a perfect four-for-four ever since. He loves the front end and hasn’t wilted under pressure this meet. Can extend his current streak to five. 6-GITA’S LAD hasn’t been highly competitive since getting claimed by this barn but he was taking on tough allowance company. But, he’ll find the field somewhat easier today. He won a couple early in the meet when he faced runners similar to this. Seems to have to best chance to beat top choice. 5-JEFF THE LION hasn’t been getting a lot of respect at the windows but he’s been racing competitively against similar and he finished second to top pick last time out.