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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu July 13th, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Lorraine's Legacy - 2/1 6 Dessert First - 5/2 4 Lotta Roses - 4/1

Pretty sure 5-LORRAINE'S LEGACY will race. Her only poor start was her last race when she was making her turf debut while making her first start against winners. Her maiden win was on an off track too. 6-DESSERT FIRST is another likely to run. Her turf races didn’t impress but she was in better form on the main track prior to those turf tries. The drop in class can only help. 4-LOTTA ROSES did improve on turf but she would seem to hold a solid speed advantage over most of this field. Should be prominent throughout.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Devil's Tower - 2/1 4 W W Hotshot - 8/5 3 Medicine Tail - 5/1

This race looks like a tossup between 5-DEVIL'S TOWER and 4-W W HOTSHOT. They have similar running styles. Both want the lead but are comfortable racing right off the pace. Giving a slight edge to Devil’s Tower because he has regularly faced better rivals and he won eight of his last 15 races. However, he was claimed from last so he’s racing for different connections. W W Hotshot hasn’t been quite as successful but this is his “home” track and local experience can make a difference. 3-MEDICINE TAIL doesn’t seem quite as fast as the top pair but that could work in his favor. He’s turning back in distance and isn’t likely to be close early but think he’ll finish with a ton of run if the top pair locks up un a speed duel.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Wicked Wow - 7/2 1 Silver Chiller - 5/2 2 God Guns N Guts - 3/1

Tough race to figure out. For the most part, those that have raced haven’t shown much and the first timers haven’t really impressed in their drills. Leaning toward 6-WICKED WOW. He got away slow in his lone start and didn’t pass much but I keep going back to his May 21st bullet drill. That was a legit workout. It was a gate drill while most of the others working that distance just did breakaway drills. I also liked his drill after his races. Gets Felix in the irons today and he gets them out of the gate as good as anybody. 1-SILVER CHILLER might be the one to beat. He displayed good speed in his last three starts. He stopped in all those races, especially in last when he met open company (which is also the case today) but if nobody attacks him early, he might take it all the way. 2-GOD GUNS N GUTS ran evenly in his lone start, basically seven lengths back throughout. But, like many, he can improve with experience.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Love of My Life - 2/1 5 Dream Streak - 7/2 2 Bali Dreamin - 5/1

Don’t think 4-LOVE OF MY LIFE is a standout in this spot but her best effort would be good enough to win this. Like that she’s able to run well off the pace while most of her rivals will probably be gunning for the lead. She hasn’t shown that closing move in last few but might regain it in her local debut. 5-DREAM STREAK might be the most consistent speed. She doesn’t always wire them but it’s not for lack of trying. She hasn’t finished out of the money in at least 10 starts. Should keep that streak intact. Don’t ignore 2-BALI DREAMING. She had little chance in last when she tossed her head at the start and essentially missed the break but she had been in good form prior. She’s usually quick from the gate.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 G T Five Hundred - 3/1 2 Table Money - 6/1 3 Baladine - 5/1

5-G T FIVE HUNDRED showed little in his lone local start but that race was contested on turf. He’s now had two turf races and he finished up the track in both. He’s been far more competitive on the main track. He had a couple good drills since. Might regain the good form he displayed in many of his Oaklawn starts earlier in the year. 2-TABLE MONEY didn’t beat a runner in his meet debut but think this group is quite a bit easier. He works as though he likes this track. Deserves another chance. 3-BALADINE takes blinkers off. He’s been tiring after contesting the early pace in races and he might be able to relax without the blinkers. Might have something left for the finish.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Another Mystery - 7/5 2 Wildwood Sicilian - 6/1 4 Readthecliffnotes - 9/2

The complexion of this race changed dramatically with the move from turf to dirt though the likely top contenders might be easier to pick out, though there is one big MYSTERY. 1-ANOTHER MYSTERY is a stakes winning, graded stakes placed turf specialist with over $640,000 in earnings. He does have two main track victories but those were contested on Arlington’s synthetic track. So, the big question is…will he or won’t he run? The two runners you can’t be fairly assured will run are 2-WILDWOOD SICILIAN and 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES.  Wildwood Sicilian is the quickest from the gate and that speed will be magnified with the stretch in distance. Readthecliffnotes owns good route speed but could wind up chasing Readthecliffnotes all the way around.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Uncaptured Dream - 8/5 1 Blue Teardrops - 4/1 5 Devlish Hour - 3/1

Not in love with 4-UNCAPTURED DREAM, he’s making his 12th maiden start, but he’s simply in better form than any of his rivals. He finished second in his last two after taking third against better in his local debut. 1-BLUE TEARDROPS comes off his best race yet. He dueled for the lead the entire race and was only a head short at the finish. He doesn’t, however, seem to be quite as quick as the top choice and might only lead the second tier all the way around. 5-DEVLISH  HOUR ran well to finish second in his local debut but took a month off after that race and could only manage a sixth-place finish against similar company in his return. But he did still display good speed. Have to consider.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Indicia - 8/1 3 Plus Chic - 5/1 5 Say Cheese - 12/1

This race could be decimated by scratches. Guess we’ll see. Most of the runners that are likely to stay in the race are sprinters stretching out so the early pace of this race could be crazy. Because of that I’m going to have to look at a runner like 4-INDICIA. She’s been splitting her time between turf and dirt so expect her to stay in the race. However, the fact that she possesses no early speed could make her tough. While many in here contest the lead, she’s going to be running near the back of the pack early and probably won’t be on anybody’s radar until the turn for home. Should come running late. 3-PLUS CHIC is very quick and would expect her to grab the early lead. However, she’s never been beyond six and a half furlongs and this race will be contested at a mile seventy. Not sure she can last if the projected pace materializes though she is bred for it. 5-SAY CHEESE won four of her last starts. However, she hasn’t raced since last August. But I like the way she’s been training. Might grab a share.