Handicapper Tips & Picks

7 Political Fire 6 A Star Tonite 1 Jess Special Folly

10 Sugar Rushh 9 Relentless Robin 8 Relentless Minnie

#4 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was given a follow off his races last year and especially with the return to turf on June 7^th. He continues to earn that follow with the BTL show finish where he had to deal with TRAFFIC, TROUBLE still make a CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the wire.

#1 LITTLE STEVEN entered for the turf on July 5^th stayed in the race on the main track and turned in a solid effort staying on as the BOS after making a RUSH into a Fast (X_FLOW) pace. His debut figure, 76 OptixFIG stacks up as one of the strongest in the field running back to that number puts him in the mix and in line figure wise with #5 ELECTRIC CHARGE – one that is tougher to support on the win end, coming up short under similar conditions without excuse though capable of another minor share.

The shift to the grass should move up #6 MARCHING ORDERS as he visually looks every bit a TURF horse and had the surface intent scratching out of the July 5^th race. He requires that move forward though the timing should be right for this one as he has improved number wise with each race and another that returns to the maiden claiming level, a similar condition to where he debuted back in April.

Perez shows up with the pair of #2 RUSSIAN STANDARD and #7 ARMAVIR two runners making their TURF debut though off the visuals should handle and potentially move up with the surface switch. The class drop looked to benefit ARMAVIR last week and should assist RUSSIAN STANDARD here as well making his first start in for the claiming tag.

#3 PLAUSIBLE DENILE fits in today’s race all around as he makes his first start on this circuit. Number wise he fits today’s OFR and has been consistent throughout his career running those figures. His RunStyle suits today’s race shape with tactical speed and the ability to finish (Square) as shown on OptixPLOT. His form also fits coming into this event as third start of the current form cycle – he presents as a SPRINTER and moved up with the cutback a little over a week ago with the WIDE trip at Ellis Park.

Tough to split the Watkins runners pair in this race as #1 FAITHFUL RULER would be given a strong edge over #5 TEE BURNS in this spot, however the rail draw could make things tougher for this horse in terms of trip and something Felix will have to work out. Number wise #2 BLOW TORCH fits with many in this group though will be tested as a top effort is required and has shown an “every other” pattern as he comes back today off a win and a step up in class as well. 

#3 FAITHFUL KING is tough to knock looking at his sprint races. His fourth place effort, a BTL effort here back on March 26^th caught the eye and following was out of his element around two-turns in the next two starts. He regained his form and confidence coming off a win on June 6^th and could pair up wins returning to this circuit at a bit of price.

#5 IRONMAN RICHIE has form at this level and minor finishes this season. He must show a little more to get the win today, though should be in line for another share. His stablemate #2 UNCLE NICK has shown some run in spots since the drop to the $62.5k level, the distance change comes into play today and as good a time as any to mix things up and cut back to a sprint, a distance he has limited chances (2 starts) and has not run one-turn since his maiden win last August. 

Vanden Berg runners have been on fire as of late to give a mention to #1 SANTINO'S FANTASY. As far as that current trend to continue here as possible, though as an individual he will be tested on the class rise and unlikely to see the value compensation required. A similar "step up" for #6 TEA WITH LEMON clearing the N2 condition last month. Trip is also noted here with his off the pace RunStyle (Quad IV Square) and lower 15 SpeedRate paired with the "Snowflake" OptixPLOT Contention. 

#5 SONO GRATO will ship in for the connections to make their second start off the claim. He could get overlooked coming back from the July 4^th sprint and projects intent (protected last out) showing up here with the added ground. As far as that race two weeks ago, he broke slow and raced with minimal ask from off the pace and gave off a positive PRERACE+ physical appearance. The added ground suits his physicality and a distance he is most familiar with going though his races and following this runner throughout the Oaklawn Park meet. 

Morning line favorite, #2 SOUPER FORTUNE was all out to hold as the BOS/Best of the Speed on July 6th and drifting/NO_LINE out late. He will be tested early with today's dynamic, other front runners in this field, including #3 MOVE ON OVER the second choice on the morning line, with the 58 SpeedRate.

#4 FLYING SAMURAI should benefit from this race shape with his run style and coming back off a B OptixGRADE, a "winning" GRADE for the level on June 22nd returning under similar conditions today. The race shape could also assist #6 EMPTY HOLSTER coming in from FanDuel and returning to the route distance for the first time since his races here during the first part of the meet. 

#6 IAN GLASS is deserving of another look under similar conditions from the June 1^st race. He figured logical in that spot and all the way up until post time when he became agitated at the GATE when a rival acted up and washed out WARM waiting out the delay and for the race. That PRERACE- behavior seemed to carry into the race creating a sneaky excuse, and one that cannot be seen on the replay alone.

#4 REAL NEWS was scheduled to return this season coming back under similar conditions on June 1^st. There were some concerns that day and group coming off the layoff though seems race ready here and even intent with Hernandez named, noting Alvin Ortiz was named for the trainer scratch race. #8 NILES CHANNEL also shows up here off the layoff and a belated Hawthorne return. He shows a pair of races here back in November of 2021, both of those races at the route distance. As an individual he fits right in at this level, though the shorter 5f distance, trip comes into play and like shifts his RunStyle into an off-the-pace runner – the changes shown from Standard to Surface/Distance on the OptixPLOT.

#10 AZREAL had the challenge coming off the layoff two weeks ago and his hurdles only increased with the rail draw (slow start, RUSH) and TROUBLE trip. To his credit, he battled through the adversity and gave an honest account of himself. He does hold a competitive race over this course, distance, and class level keying off the B OptixGRADE and BLANKET finish last October. 

#7 IT’S MAGIC earned a follow from her debut last month at Ellis Park. She made a slight lunge coming out of the gate and found her stride chasing while the pacesetters cleared over a course that favors runners forwardly place. IT’S MAGIC made up ground behind and going around a rival behind the eventual 1-5 pacesetting chalk winner, Zeitlos and together with the other pacesetter for the minors.

#2 GUSTAVI was entered MTO last Sunday and while she is scheduled for the main track she gives off TURF visuals. She will not get to the grass in either race and still fits on the main track with the form and figures from earlier this season at Oaklawn Park. It is worth noting the debut was a restricted maiden Special Weight condition and her second start a step up to open Special Weight and had a subtle trip with rider TACTIC- from the rail.

Homebred #4 GOLD OAK will make her debut here for Reavis, a capable trainer with first time starters, especially fillies. She comes into this race with a steady progress work tag and appears fit, race ready and well-intended with Felix aboard. 

#4 BUCK MOON should be the dominant speed in this race (Quad I Square) and has been given the recovery time to return to a peak effort. He ran a big race coming off the layoff back on March 23^rd and projected to REGRESS off that HARD effort. With that noted he was able to control taking a stakes race to win (the figure taken with a grain of salt) though did hit that projected REGRESSION on June 10^th. He has been given the 39-day freshening for this spot and easy maintenance move on June 22^nd to keep up fitness. There are other pacesetters in this field and will not be able to get away with the Very Slow early pace he set back in March given the complexion of this field - #5 TREASURY and #6 EMPIRE BUILDER are just as quick early, though lack the same finish/Circle; and even #7 LYKAN capable of showing early foot as he stretching out in distance for this race.

As far as TREASURY, he has run against some solid stakes type runners this year at the Fair Grounds and holds decent company lines. Following him in those races, he was able to establish a LONE lead not of the time, something he does not project to find here and that LONE trip assisting his finishing positions at times including the February win, a race run in the rain/WEATHER.

If there is an early battle, #2 NOTARY will look to capitalize and seek for back-to-back wins. His class, form and current figures stack up for this level, only a subtle step up from his most recent win and has been competitive under similar conditions in his races out of town. Both #1 MILLARD’S SMILE and #3 SILVER QUARTERS will look to pick up the pieces late though give up the first run to NOTARY looking at the OptixPLOT and at the same time lack the same figures/class. 

#3 STRIKE PRICE is a much different horse on the turf and could cycle back to a top effort. He had some subtle trips back at Turfway Park earning a follow this season. His top effort was not without TROUBLE finishing second on May 18^th and followed up that race with a compromised SLOG and outside post on June 7^th and another TROUBLE trip on June 25^th. The May 18^th race was also the return to turf and improvement for #4 STORM’S REFLECTION with a TROUBLE+ trip in his own right. He validated that effort in the two following starts both solid (B/B- OptixGRADE) efforts and of the two is more obvious, while still logical. Same can be said for #11 KINGSBURY ATTACK coming out of the common races and returning to this claiming level where he was more competitive/B- OptixGRADE.

#8 LAWMAKER could be given an excuse when making his first start in against winners two weeks ago. Not only did he have the surface switch with the races moved to the main track, but his race was also lost at the break with the SLOG and distanced behind a Very Slow (VS O4S) opening half mile making a mile and interest with everything against him. He was also washed out (WARM) that day and something not common for this individual. The surface switch could also assist #2 BRODY’S FLY another intended for the grass on July 7^th. While this will be his first start over the turf, his Tapeta numbers stand out over the dirt figures to suggest at the least we did not see their best effort two weeks ago.

#7 CLASSOFSITXYSEVEN is a longshot to win this race, though should step up off his current form and return to the turf, perhaps enough today to get a share.

#12 IZEONDEC (MTO) might have been looking for the race to shift to the dirt back on May 18^th and projected IMPROVEment in his second start of the season. He had a legit excuse on April 13^th with legit TROUBLE and still showing run making a WIDE MOVE. He was entered last month in an N2L claiming race at Ellis Park and a likely wise “trainer scratch” given this ones RunStyle coming from off-the-pace, a trip that is not suited to the Ellis Park main track profile. 

Competitive race to open the card. Think there may be price potential with 2-RUSSIAN STANDARD as he posted an improved effort on the grass last out and should welcome the added distance. There should be enough pace to chase and we may still get a decent price on the class drop. 4-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY ran well at this level back on June 7 and has just been waiting to get back on the grass. He's another that will benefit from some pace to chase as he picks up Esquivel in the saddle. 5-ELECTRIC CHARGE ran well in a race taken off the grass last out. He has the ability to rate a bit closer early as he figures to take some action in here off a string of consistent performances.

Going to be really right or really wrong here. To me this race looks like it has a good amount of early pace in it. Because of that I'm leaning on runners to come from a bit off the pace. 2-BLOW TORCH won't be way back in this spot but shouldn't be on the lead either. he comes in off a solid effort in Iowa in his last and this barn has had a good meet here at Hawthorne. 3-PLAUSIBLE DENILE also figures to rate and rally. He chased in Kentucky last out but looks to be better in a stalking spot. Let's see if he can repeat his performance from his maiden score three races back. 4-DASH TO THE CASH had a good maiden win two back and competed with open-allowance runners in his last. He's the one that will need the pace to chase but I expect he is picking off horses late.

Not a ton in regards to early pace in this race which could help the chances of 5-IRONMAN RICHIE. He has been consistent throughout the season and is at his best when running from just off the pace. He was in a stretch battle last out and just got unlucky at the wire as he lost a head bob. Expect him to compete in here once again. 1-SANTINO'S FANTASY takes the logical step up off a nice victory last out. He doesn't want or need the lead but also won't be too far back. If he repeats his last performance he could win right back. 6-TEA WITH LEMON was also a solid winner last out. He's been sharp this meet as well and doesn't appear to need to do much in between starts. Look for him to figure in the mix late.

Much like race two, this is another spot where there seems to be quite a bit of early pace. 5-SONO GRATO was claimed for just $8,000 out of a start two back at Oaklawn. He closed up some ground in his last while sprinting but seems to be a better fit around two turns. The main concern is the reasoning for the class plunge to the spot where he was claimed but if he can get back to some of those races from earlier in the year I expect he is tough in here. 6-EMPTY HOLSTER doesn't like to win but he also has the running style that suits. The stretch back out in distance should benefit his chances as he will come running in the lane. 4-FLYING SAMURAI figures to be dismissed in the betting but he posted a much improved effort while at a nice price last out. If he can repeat that race he could contend for the top spot.

2-GUSTAVI was entered as a MTO on Sunday but scratched from there for this spot which looks to be a good move as she figures to go favored. She faced two tough fields at Oaklawn earlier in the year and has worked well toward her return. Expect a solid effort in here. 7-IT'S MAGIC posted a nice debut effort at Ellis as she settled mid-pack early and was closing some ground in the lane. We will see if there's enough pace to chase but on paper it appears they will be moving upfront early. 1-ANGEL EXPRESS is one of those with speed as she comes off a pair of turf races to open her career. She comes in off a bullet drill into this spot and picks up Esquivel in the saddle.

Really good field with a decent amount of pace in this race. If things unfold the right way, 2-NOTARY should be able to settle in just behind the early pace and come running in the lane. It was a good win last time and only a slight step up off that victory. Expect another good performance today. 6-EMPIRE BUILDER is is bred to run all day and was really solid in a pair of starts on the meet. This barn has had a tremendous meet but the question is how much pace pressure he will face in this spot. 4-BUCK MOON also has speed but doesn't have to make the top to win. He won a take with a good stalking trip at Fonner two back but when you look at all of his starts, he's either upfront early or within a length.

A really competitive race to close out the card with a large turf field.  Looking to 11-KINGSBURRY ATTACK as he drops back down off a decent effort on the grass in his last. This mile distance may suit him nicely as there's enough pace to chase for his closing move from the outside. 6-BAILEYS RUN makes his first start of the year as he has been training in Indiana throughout the spring and summer. He does take a class drop on the return but could get a perfect stalking trip. 8-LAWMAKER was a good winner in his last turf start. He stayed in last out when the race came off the grass but was compromised with a poor start. Let's see if he bounces back here with the return to the grass.

Not in love with any in here but going to try 1-LITTLE STEVEN. He will be making his turf debut but he has a decent pedigree. However, I appreciate his early speed and that he carried it throughout in last, his first start around two turns in a race that was scheduled for turf. 2-RUSSIAN STANDARD didn’t show much in his turf debut or in any of his races but he is dropping into maiden claimers for the first time. 4-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY finished third in his last on the lawn coming from 14 lengths back at one point and making up seven lengths. 5-ELECTRIC CHARGE is another with a turf third to his credit. 

The fact that there’s so much early speed in this race almost makes picking 2-BLOW TORCH a necessity. He’s been alternating good races with mediocre efforts for awhile and he did win his last, two of his last three, three of his last five and four of his last seven. If he follows that pattern he’ll run well but maybe not well enough. We’ll see. 3-PLAUSIBLE DENILE has been training here for a long time but this will be his local debut. It took him 11 races to break his maiden and he showed little in his two starts since but his sharp local drills suggest he could show far more in his first start here. 4-DASH TO THE CASH could be the best closer in the field and the pace should certainly set up for him. 

1-SANTINO’S FANTASY has been in great form since getting to Hawthorne. He’s had four local starts, racing for two different barns, and won two of them while finishing second in the other two. Guessing he’ll have continued success today. 6-TEA WITH LEMON, fresh off a win, drops in claiming price but meets somewhat tougher in this non-winners of three. If he runs the way he did in last it might not matter however, it’s been over a month since that last race and he’s had only one extremely slow drill on a sloppy track since. Conditioning? 4-PINBALLER hasn’t been showing much in recent routes but he’s dropping to the lowest level of his career while turning back in distance. Think he’ll finish full of run, possibly at a great price.

4-FLYING SAMURAI isn’t a strong choice but he showed considerable improvement in his second local start and his second start of the year and he finished second. Makes only his third start since November. Should be reaching peak form. 2-SOUPER FORTUNE took the lead soon after the start of last and proceeded to lead the rest of the way and posted a three-quarter length win. Got claimed from that race and moves to a higher claiming price although the conditions of this race point to him meeting easier since he already has five victories. He seems the quickest by far with the stretch in distance. It’s possible that he’ll lead all the way. 7-MEATLOAF’S CHANCE wired the field in last, a race originally scheduled for turf. He’s meeting better today and he’s unlikely to be the best of the speed but he could lead the second tier all the way around. 

4-REAL NEWS could surprise. He’s been racing on the main track this year but he’s an accomplished turf sprinter who ran well in California, Indiana and Kentucky. He’s earned over $280k on the lawn. Should be tracking the early speed and might be able to blow by late. 3-UPBEAT MELODY has been very successful at the distance. However, he’s only one among many who loves the front end. It’s quite possible that he’ll put the rest of the speed away but maybe he won’t. 2-SIERRA HOTEL is at the top of his game. Winner of last two might be better going longer but he has had success at the distance and nobody in this race is hotter. 

Unless one of the first timers is quick, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed in this race. 1-ANGEL EXPRESS displayed much better speed in last, her second start. Both of her prior races were on turf and this will be her first dirt start but she has been working well on this surface. Could prove to be tough on the front end. 2-GUSTAVI makes her first start for this barn and her first start at Hawthorne. She was facing tough company at Oaklawn. Seems to be meeting easier here. Can really wake up. 7-IT’S MAGIC raced evenly to finish third of six in a spread out field at Ellis in her lone start but she has been training locally. The purse of that race was $120k. You have to figure she’s going to be meeting easier here. Figures prominently.  

Great race. Can make a solid case for most runners in here. But I landed on 2-NOTARY because of the probable heated pace of this race. If the field stays intact, there are three talented runners that could be fighting for the lead. Notary, who is coming off possibly the best race of his career, will be racing right behind them and if that troika duels through most of the race, this gelding can run by late. 4-stakes-winning 4-BUCK MOON could be hard to beat. While he doesn’t absolutely need the early lead to win, he's going to be hot on the pace throughout. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he put the rest of the speed away and finished with something left. 6-EMPIRE BUILDER has been terrific since getting here. He simply dominated in his two local races. But he has yet to beat a field like this. He wired those last two races but he might have a better chance if taken off the early pace and finishing strong, something he has done well in the past. 

None in this race has shown great ability on the weeds but I guess that’s why they are running at this level. 8-LAWMAKER might have the edge. He’s been a versatile runner and he ran well in all his local turf starts. 4-STORM’S REFLECTION had a couple good local turf races. He finished second in his last two starts, one on the turf, and is another with the versatility to handle any pace. 6-BAILEY’S RUN races for the first time since September. He had some success on tougher circuits but his drills coming into this race might question his readiness to compete throughout. 11-KINGSBURRY ATTACK always seems to be in the hunt.