Handicapper Tips & Picks

Clearly the connections of #1 KATHAAN are looking for the turf as she scratched from a similar event last Thursday with the races moved to the main track. KATHAAN fits right back in this field and with today’s race shape. The Contention is lighter with the “Snowflake” rating, though the higher 80 SpeedRate should present pace for Kathaan as a Large Square in Quad IV to make her run. In terms of form,  she has run well in each start this season (including Keeneland) racing against the flow (X_FLOW) and against the SPACED, extreme race shape on June 22^nd making a late CLOSE.

Her stablemate #3 SHE CAN’T SING is a contender in her own right though does require returning to top form. She could show more tactical speed coming back from the June 21^st Canterbury race where she was inside and not totally comfortable (SCARED) with the trip. #2 WAVE OF GOODNESS has won at this conditions course and distance with the connections bringing her back to Hawthorne suggesting intent for the win. #4 OMIXOCHITL has been running against a higher level of competition and requires some class relief (DROP) to compete. She will find that here on this circuit, showing intent by the connections though this race comes up competitive for the level and overall Omixochitl has not show much progression from her sophomore season. 

#5 CAT ATTACK steps up off a won and from a peak effort in her second start of the cycle – a repeating form cycle pattern back on June 22^nd. She was able to make the lead, SPACED out the field setting the pace and enough to hold late, though a taxing/HARD effort noted as she returns on less than 30-day recovery.

There are two runners in this spot for the tag and giving the preference of that pair to #3 EMITYAAZ. She has the benefit if recency and form returning to the main track with the right Surface/Distance RunStyle (OptixPLOT) for this race shape in a compact field. #2 GIANNA’S GIFT also races for a tag showing up off the 117-day layoff for Contreras. She tends to do her better running on the lead and should have pace pressure with #4 FREE LOVE in this field. Current form is also a concern with the layoff, a vet scratch back at Oaklawn Park, a recent trainer scratch and also showing up here at Hawthorne rather than at HS Indy where she is based, training and the barn running most of their horses here – and she could end up being favored.

The pace scenario does become tricky with both #1 RONAN and #5 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT stretching out in distance. RONAN has the overall edge of the pair and experience around two-turns in just limited starts, those three races under similar conditions to today turning in competitive efforts (B- OptixGRADE) and OptixFIG in line with today’s par and stacking up with both GIANNA’S GIFT and EMITYAAZ. 

#1 COUGER she was running against males on July 6^th and finds relief in this spot comparing race par. Overall this could be considered a slight step up in class given she will run today for the $15k purse though current form, figures and RunStyle/Plot fit with today’s event. #4 GHAALEB’S DREAMS finds herself some class relief for the first time this season. That is noted as she was entered for today’s conditions back on June 7^th and a vet scratch that day. Positive intent could be in play as she wheels back in just 11 days from the off-the-turf higher $15k conditioned event for this second start of the cycle. #3 MARIA’S GIFT finds a lateral change shipping in from the FanDuel races and number wise fits as she looks to move up on this circuit and with added ground. Trip and RunStyle is the challenge for #6 WEEKEND PASS as she lacks any early speed whatsoever though does have a closing kick and in terms of numbers form in line with others in this field.

Ward will return with the pair that made their seasonal debut here on June 8^th. Going into that race, #6 NO KAY NEVER had the edge of two on class/speed and similar coming back today. Some further intent could be in play as he brings in apprentice, Walter Rodiguez, their lone mount on the card. #2 STARS ON FIRE holds course experience breaking her maiden here last November, and to her credit did show some progress returning on June 8^th from a figure standpoint. She will also find a rider change and arguably upgrade with Emigh taking over from Lezcano.

Both Ward runners are positioned in Quad I, part of the “Fire” Contention and likely kept honest with the 50 SpeedRate along with rivals #5 WILMA MANKILLER and #8 SWEET NELLIE also show as Standard Quad I Squares above the ParLine. The ”Fire” Contention should assist #4 LURE’EM IN shown as the Larger Square (edge over #3 SECRET OPERATION) stalking from Quad II/IV.

#7 SUNSET PAYNTER showed a lot of ability on debut leading to a private purchase and ambitious placement by the connections at Oaklawn Park following. She showed run in those Oaklawn races more than the running lines and finishing positions suggest. The same carries from the June 8^th allowance race and is upgrade coming back in this spot with the SHORTER distance and preferred ONE_TURN. Her position on the Plot is tough to take on face value with Standard including the route races and lacking Surface/Distance data to Plot. 

#6 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY has been unfortunate in her races running into a better runner on the day and today things change as she is that horse. She is the clear horse to bear in this field she has the consistency number wise and form showing her in this third start of the cycle. She also shifts back to an outer post, the only other time she drew outside was her second start, the place finish and earning her career high 70 OptixFIG.

#2 COME ON LADY is the “new face” coming into this race with a steady work tab, a barn that already holds a win this season and shows up in a reasonable spot as an Illinois bred for her debut. #1 LADY WHITE SOX is a bit of a stab as she requires a turnaround to compete though she does hold the second highest 69 OptixFIG over this course and distance going back to last season, the June 24^th race and that effort is represented by the Large Surface/Distance Square. 

This race starts with assessing #1 BELPERRON one that holds the highest recorded OptixFIG in this field keying off her races closing out 2022. She will give up some recency returning off the 224 day layoff, and also her first start in against winner. Manley has shown intent to run here this season and with Orm returning in the saddle, noting a scratch from a similar conditioned allowance race (6f dirt) on July 12th.

#2 MADELYN BELLE turned in a solid effort on debut and validated that race coming back with a dominant B+ OptixGRADE to break her maiden on June 25^th. The B+ OptixGRADE suggests she can handle a step up in class, and this is a class rise all around as she take on both winners and open company for the first time.

Mojica was aboard MADELYN BELLE in that maiden score last out (and rival Bali Baby on 7/9) and opts to jump back aboard #7 TAR HEEL GIRL today. These two teamed up for the maiden win back in April and the connections have been looking to return to the turf (off turf scratch on 7/12) though certainly can handle the dirt. TAR HEEL GIRL must improve her figures, though has the ability to show that improvement as a lightly raced type and holding the 74 OptixFIG from the March 16^th race.

#6 BALI BABY could also project a move forward with the return to turf, sprint distance and the experience coming back from the layoff and the July 9^th race out of the way. As far as that day, BALI BABY lost her race before it starts. She was MANIC leading up to post time and giving off all indications she was not race ready that day. The slow start/SLOG, WIDE trip, and extreme race dynamic (SPACED) with open length pacesetting winner, Free Love, makes that race one to put a “line through” and is one that must be observed for a change in behavior today. 

Morning line favorite, #8 PEACH COBBLER is logical as an individual to compete in this race, though does not hold a strong edge in any category to justify taking the short price. 

Looking at OptixPLOT with the “Fire” Contention, higher 67 SpeedRate and five of the six sharing the E/EP RunStyle (OptixRPM) the race could set up for #6 STAR NATION from off the pace/Quad IV Square as a mild upset. She comes into this race with progressive form this season; she broke her maiden showing TWO_MOVES back in April and holds improving OptixGRADES/FIGS in this third start against winners.

As far as the early pace, it does project to be as Contentious as it appears on the Plot with #1 LOOKIN FOR BALA, a speedy type draw on the rail, #2 FIT TO FLY posted just to her outside along with Rivelli stablemate #4 ONASA part of the Quad I group above the ParLine.

#3 CORTESE is a tougher read both in terms of pace as she did stalk in her second start (6/26/22) at Churchill Downs as a juvenile and improved her numbers with racing. She returns from a longer 260 day layoff and first off the claim as well showing up on this circuit for Hernandez.  

There are many in this field capable under today’s conditions and even recording wins this season. Those runners are certainly capable right back in this spot; however a pair of “newer” faces offer intrigue.

There were some concerns on the placement for #7 CLEAR N CONVINCING coming back from the layoff as he was entered in sprints for the returns. The route distance today makes him more playable than the shorter events and potential positive with Mojica assigned today and was named on June 25^th, the most recent scratch when the races came off-the-turf. The distance change is also in play for #9 EXPROMPT returning here following an off-the-turf sprint scratch on July 5^th and is upgraded with the return to turf from the June 14^th event. He has some route races in his career with numbers that fit in today’s OFR and even a win at a similar distance going back to 2018 at Gulfstream Park. He is one that given the back class and surface switch can be upgraded at the right price. 

A really solid race kicks off a really solid card. Only five in here but all could be back in the Romacaca Stakes later in the meet. 5-CAT ATTACK has the advantage of having speed and may be able to sneak away and never look back. She won on the front here last month and looks to be tough once again. Let's see if she can shake lose early and never look back. 3-SHE CAN'T SING comes off a solid stakes try at Canterbury in her last. She won't be too far off the early pace and catches a bit of class relief after a lengthy string of stakes starts. 2-WAVE OF GOODNESS battled late into the lane at Churchill in her last. She was defeated by three next out winners in a key race. Look for her to possibly push things along upfront early in here.

Competitive bunch with a couple with speed. Hoping the pace battle sets it up for the closing move of 1-RONAN. This is a much easier bunch than she has faced recent and the move back to two turns is the only question. If she's able to settle early she should come charging late. 2-GIANNA'S GIFT comes in from Indiana as she has been away from the races since the end of the Oaklawn meet. She's one that does have some speed so we will see if she goes with Free Love early or chooses to rate and run on late. 4-FREE LOVE is likely committed to the front as she was a good winner on the stretch in distance in her last. If she can shake loose from Gianna's Gift in here she may never look back.

She's still looking for her first win of the year but 1-COUGAR has found the board in all five starts and figures to control things on the front end in here. With the stretch in distance there is unlikely to be any challenge early as she should catch a breather and never look back. 4-GHAALEB'S DREAMS gets some class relief off her last, a race that came off the turf. She was away for a lengthy stretch before returning this meet but hasn't appeared to be the same horse. Let's see what kind of a trip she gets in here. 6-WEEKEND PASS figures to be one to rate back early and come running in the lane. She closed some ground last out and picks up Ortiz in the saddle in this spot.

Nice turf sprint for 3yo fillies with a competitive bunch. Looking to 6-NO KAY NEVER (IRE) as she returns to Hawthorne for her second start over the course. She has tactical speed and was just hung a bit wide in her last. Expect her to rate a bit closer early in here as she looks to save ground into the lane. 5-WILMA MANKILLER has speed as she will be on the gas from the start. This is her first turf try of her career but all three races on the meet have been solid. 4-LURE'EM IN will need that pace to chase as she figures to rate and rally. She had a good maiden score in New Orleans this spring and should be flying late as well.

Won't be much of a price but 6-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY sure looks to be the one to beat in here. She has enough speed to contend early and there isn't much pace in this race. Let's see if she can stalk Napabit early and take over in the lane. 2-COME ON LADY debuts with Lasix as she has been working in Kentucky leading up to this start. She has consistent drills and figures at a price as she picks up Tavares today. 5-FREEDOM ATTACK has run better races on the meet as she should be forwardly placed as well. She just needs to show a bit more finishing kick but is worth a look underneath in the gimmicks.

Going off of intent, it would appear that trainer Steve Manley wants turf for 1-BELPERRON as she makes her first start of the year. She scratched that week when races came off the turf and the track was sloppy. She looks to have some tactical speed and with the inside draw she likely won't be too far back at any point. 7-TAR HEEL GIRL shortens up off a good effort in her last. She is another that figures to settle in the second flight early before running on in the lane. 8-PEACH COBBLER has speed and comes back off a good effort at this level in her last. She gets the same distance once again as she should be able to contend well into the lane.

Two Rivelli runners both in with a shot as 4-ONASA will likely be the longer price of the two. He was a good winner here earlier in the meet and was able to track the leaders before running onto a nice score at Thistledown last out. With the amount of pace in here, he may look to rate and run on late. 2-FIT TO FLY figures to show that early speed but he may have company upfront. He is very quick from the gate though as the potential to outkick the others to the top does exist. 3-CORTESE was a $50k claim out of a Churchill race last fall and makes his return. This barn has seen numerous runners in similar situations post big efforts and this is another that could do the same.

Great prep for the August 10^th Romacacca. Would have to expect 3-SHE CAN’T SING to be the best of this compact but deep field. This multiple stakes-winning mare has earned over $860,000 while winning eight of her 36 races. She has yet to visit the winner’s circle in 2023 but did finish third in two of her three races while meeting tougher fields. 2-WAVE OF GOODNESS beat only one in her most recent race but at least three members of that field came back to win their next start, suggesting that field was extremely tough. Gets no reprieve in this spot but if she regains the form she had prior to that last, with a win and a close second in two New Orleans stakes races, she’s going to be far more of a factor in this one. 5-CAT ATTACK isn’t likely to be the only speed but she just might get the drop on the rest. She is coming off a wire-to-wire victory. Metes tougher here but could be a threat to repeat.

2-GIANNA’S GIFT could wire them. She’s making her first start since March but she has been training well during her break. She has a history of running well off layoffs. However, the layoff as well as the presence of so much other speed could prove too taxing. Choice but a slim one. 1-RONAN drops out of allowance company. She showed little in last but she had been in good form for a long time prior to that race. Stretches out. Could display somewhat better speed but think she’ll save her best move for the stretch. 3-EMITYAAZ seems a bit slower than most of her rivals but that could work in her favor. There’s a chance that the rest of the field will be vying for the lead. It’s possible that she can pick off the tiring runners late. 5-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT might display better speed with the stretch in distance but since she generally comes from off the pace, she might be relaxed enough to do it in this race. She generally finishes very well. Could outfinish them all. 4-FREE LOVE is as quick as any in here. She won three of her nine races including two of last three. If she jumps to the early lead she might never look back. 

1-COUGAR looks like the best of the speed and she’s been in terrific form, finishing out of the money only once in her last 10 starts. She just finished third against the boys. She’s stretching out today and her speed could be enhanced with the stretch in distance. In her last four routes, she won one time and finished second in the other three. They’ll have to catch her, 3-MARIA’S GIFT meets the easiest field of her career. The last time she ran here she was facing $25k claimers. Might be better in sprints but she still figures to be extremely tough at this level. 4-GHAALEB’S DREAMS didn’t look too sharp in last couple but she’s also dropping in class. 

Have to figure that 6-NO KAY NEVER will make amends. She went off as the odds-on favorite in last when making her local debut. She never really fired. But she was stakes-placed at two and ran well at Saratoga in another stakes. That last race was her first since early October. Should be in far better form for this race. 2-STARS ON FIRE, stablemate of top choice, beat her partner in that last race while going off at a much higher price. This filly broke her maiden here in her prior start. Like top pick, she was making her first start of the year in that last race and she should be fitter for this one. 4-LURE’EM IN tired in a stakes race at Canterbury in last but she was stretched out to a route for that grassy contest. Turns back in distance for this. She should finish with a ton of run and might be able to surprise.

There’s no guarantee that 6-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY will win this race but it’s hard to conceive that any of her rivals in here can beat her. She finished second in the Debutante in her final start of 2022 and ran well in her first two starts this year. None of her rivals have shown a thing. Her recent bullet drill looks like the icing on the cake. If any in here had ANY chance of beating top choice, it would probably be 5-FREEDOM ATTACK. She’s already had 10 starts but has managed only one second-place finish. However, she is moving back to state breds for this and she did finish only a couple lengths behind top choice when last they met. 4-NAPABIT displays decent speed at times. Has a chance to hang on.

Not in love with any in here so I figured I’d take a flyer with 1-BELPERRON. She’s making her first start of the year off a series of good drills. She showed little in her first two starts last year but took nearly three months off and came back an entirely different individual. She’s bred for the lawn even though she showed little in her career debut on turf. I like that she’s shown versatility and it’s hard to gauge just how the pace of this race will set up. 8-PEACH COBBLER is probably the one to beat after a second-place finish against similar in her first local start of the year. However, she could get caught up in a speed duel which could compromise her chances. Trying to make sense of 7-TAR HEEL GIRL’S last race. She finished second in that race on what was listed as a firm turf course. However, the fractions of that race were almost glacial, though she did earn one of the highest speed figures of any in here. Adds blinkers and cuts back in distance. Don’t know if they’ll send her or try to come from out of it. 2-MADELYN BELLE is another interesting runner. Her first two starts were against Illinois maidens. She narrowly lost her first but destroyed the field in her last under a hand ride. Meets winners, faces open company and tries turf for the first time but wouldn’t count her out. 

Interesting race. In a contest like this, with four of the five confirmed front runners I would normally choose the one runner not likely to try for the lead. However, I don’t think that Star Nation is fast enough. So, I have to pick one of the five early burners to outlast the rest. Not an easy task. Wound up with morning-line favorite 2-FIT TO FLY but this is anything but a strong choice. He’s been able to last under pressure and pull away late, which he did in last two. Might have to do the same thing today. Like top choice, 4-ONASA won his last two starts. He might not be quite as quick as some in here but he was able to press the pace in last without taking the early lead and still win by a couple. 3-CORTESE is as quick as any in here but he’s been off since November and the pace of this race could be grueling. Fitness might be an issue. 1-LOOKIN FOR BALA could break on top and he’s another that has shown the ability to last under pressure. He just missed in last as the odds-on favorite and could easily make amends today.

This is truly one of those “anybody can win” races. 9-EXPROMPT is lightly raced the last couple years and in his lone start so far this year, he finished a non-threatening fifth out of five, though that race was moved to the main track and this runner had only a few dirt starts with pretty much the same results. On the plus side, this is probably the easiest field he ever met on the lawn but that fact has to be tempered with the fact that the race is longer than his preference and the sparsity of recent races might leave him short. Slim pick. 8-FLY NIGHTLY swings right back after winning his last at this level. He’s cutting back in distance and one of my favorite plays has been runners cutting back from a mile and a sixteenth to seven and a half. His speed will have him close throughout and he might finish with more authority at this shorter distance. 3-DYNABLUE finished third in all three of his local turf races this year and he could find himself in the same spot again today. 2-VITALE has speed and staying power. Could be in the thick of things throughout.

T 1 Gone Goodbye 6 Drebin 3 Ways N Means

P 8 Ebony Lady 3 Watch Her Dewitt 5 Western Flames

T 6 Send It Hanover 3 Top Mast 2 Perfect Landing

T 10 Cool Ma Belle 2 Stubborn Chee 6 Moonshine Memories

T 5 Evolving 3 Go Have Fun 9 Muscone

T 5 Evolving 3 Go Have Fun 9 Muscone

T 1 Southern Money 8 Cold Snaps 7 Woman Of Passion

T 10 Mrstery Deal 1 Salem Seelster 2 Star Hairdresser

T 5 C C Goldpolicy 2 Severence Angel 1 Sayonara Angel

P 2 Manasquan Beach 3 Moonstruck 4 Kuper Trooper

T 5 Ricardo 3 Musical Ride 9 Winning Muscle