Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was given a follow off his races last year and especially with the return to turf on June 7^th. He continues to earn that follow with the BTL show finish where he had to deal with TRAFFIC, TROUBLE still make a CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the wire.

#1 LITTLE STEVEN entered for the turf on July 5^th stayed in the race on the main track and turned in a solid effort staying on as the BOS after making a RUSH into a Fast (X_FLOW) pace. His debut figure, 76 OptixFIG stacks up as one of the strongest in the field running back to that number puts him in the mix and in line figure wise with #5 ELECTRIC CHARGE – one that is tougher to support on the win end, coming up short under similar conditions without excuse though capable of another minor share.

The shift to the grass should move up #6 MARCHING ORDERS as he visually looks every bit a TURF horse and had the surface intent scratching out of the July 5^th race. He requires that move forward though the timing should be right for this one as he has improved number wise with each race and another that returns to the maiden claiming level, a similar condition to where he debuted back in April.

Perez shows up with the pair of #2 RUSSIAN STANDARD and #7 ARMAVIR two runners making their TURF debut though off the visuals should handle and potentially move up with the surface switch. The class drop looked to benefit ARMAVIR last week and should assist RUSSIAN STANDARD here as well making his first start in for the claiming tag.

#3 PLAUSIBLE DENILE fits in today’s race all around as he makes his first start on this circuit. Number wise he fits today’s OFR and has been consistent throughout his career running those figures. His RunStyle suits today’s race shape with tactical speed and the ability to finish (Square) as shown on OptixPLOT. His form also fits coming into this event as third start of the current form cycle – he presents as a SPRINTER and moved up with the cutback a little over a week ago with the WIDE trip at Ellis Park.

Tough to split the Watkins runners pair in this race as #1 FAITHFUL RULER would be given a strong edge over #5 TEE BURNS in this spot, however the rail draw could make things tougher for this horse in terms of trip and something Felix will have to work out. Number wise #2 BLOW TORCH fits with many in this group though will be tested as a top effort is required and has shown an “every other” pattern as he comes back today off a win and a step up in class as well. 

#3 FAITHFUL KING is tough to knock looking at his sprint races. His fourth place effort, a BTL effort here back on March 26^th caught the eye and following was out of his element around two-turns in the next two starts. He regained his form and confidence coming off a win on June 6^th and could pair up wins returning to this circuit at a bit of price.

#5 IRONMAN RICHIE has form at this level and minor finishes this season. He must show a little more to get the win today, though should be in line for another share. His stablemate #2 UNCLE NICK has shown some run in spots since the drop to the $62.5k level, the distance change comes into play today and as good a time as any to mix things up and cut back to a sprint, a distance he has limited chances (2 starts) and has not run one-turn since his maiden win last August. 

Vanden Berg runners have been on fire as of late to give a mention to #1 SANTINO'S FANTASY. As far as that current trend to continue here as possible, though as an individual he will be tested on the class rise and unlikely to see the value compensation required. A similar "step up" for #6 TEA WITH LEMON clearing the N2 condition last month. Trip is also noted here with his off the pace RunStyle (Quad IV Square) and lower 15 SpeedRate paired with the "Snowflake" OptixPLOT Contention. 

#5 SONO GRATO will ship in for the connections to make their second start off the claim. He could get overlooked coming back from the July 4^th sprint and projects intent (protected last out) showing up here with the added ground. As far as that race two weeks ago, he broke slow and raced with minimal ask from off the pace and gave off a positive PRERACE+ physical appearance. The added ground suits his physicality and a distance he is most familiar with going though his races and following this runner throughout the Oaklawn Park meet. 

Morning line favorite, #2 SOUPER FORTUNE was all out to hold as the BOS/Best of the Speed on July 6th and drifting/NO_LINE out late. He will be tested early with today's dynamic, other front runners in this field, including #3 MOVE ON OVER the second choice on the morning line, with the 58 SpeedRate.

#4 FLYING SAMURAI should benefit from this race shape with his run style and coming back off a B OptixGRADE, a "winning" GRADE for the level on June 22nd returning under similar conditions today. The race shape could also assist #6 EMPTY HOLSTER coming in from FanDuel and returning to the route distance for the first time since his races here during the first part of the meet. 

#6 IAN GLASS is deserving of another look under similar conditions from the June 1^st race. He figured logical in that spot and all the way up until post time when he became agitated at the GATE when a rival acted up and washed out WARM waiting out the delay and for the race. That PRERACE- behavior seemed to carry into the race creating a sneaky excuse, and one that cannot be seen on the replay alone.

#4 REAL NEWS was scheduled to return this season coming back under similar conditions on June 1^st. There were some concerns that day and group coming off the layoff though seems race ready here and even intent with Hernandez named, noting Alvin Ortiz was named for the trainer scratch race. #8 NILES CHANNEL also shows up here off the layoff and a belated Hawthorne return. He shows a pair of races here back in November of 2021, both of those races at the route distance. As an individual he fits right in at this level, though the shorter 5f distance, trip comes into play and like shifts his RunStyle into an off-the-pace runner – the changes shown from Standard to Surface/Distance on the OptixPLOT.

#10 AZREAL had the challenge coming off the layoff two weeks ago and his hurdles only increased with the rail draw (slow start, RUSH) and TROUBLE trip. To his credit, he battled through the adversity and gave an honest account of himself. He does hold a competitive race over this course, distance, and class level keying off the B OptixGRADE and BLANKET finish last October. 

#7 IT’S MAGIC earned a follow from her debut last month at Ellis Park. She made a slight lunge coming out of the gate and found her stride chasing while the pacesetters cleared over a course that favors runners forwardly place. IT’S MAGIC made up ground behind and going around a rival behind the eventual 1-5 pacesetting chalk winner, Zeitlos and together with the other pacesetter for the minors.

#2 GUSTAVI was entered MTO last Sunday and while she is scheduled for the main track she gives off TURF visuals. She will not get to the grass in either race and still fits on the main track with the form and figures from earlier this season at Oaklawn Park. It is worth noting the debut was a restricted maiden Special Weight condition and her second start a step up to open Special Weight and had a subtle trip with rider TACTIC- from the rail.

Homebred #4 GOLD OAK will make her debut here for Reavis, a capable trainer with first time starters, especially fillies. She comes into this race with a steady progress work tag and appears fit, race ready and well-intended with Felix aboard. 

#4 BUCK MOON should be the dominant speed in this race (Quad I Square) and has been given the recovery time to return to a peak effort. He ran a big race coming off the layoff back on March 23^rd and projected to REGRESS off that HARD effort. With that noted he was able to control taking a stakes race to win (the figure taken with a grain of salt) though did hit that projected REGRESSION on June 10^th. He has been given the 39-day freshening for this spot and easy maintenance move on June 22^nd to keep up fitness. There are other pacesetters in this field and will not be able to get away with the Very Slow early pace he set back in March given the complexion of this field - #5 TREASURY and #6 EMPIRE BUILDER are just as quick early, though lack the same finish/Circle; and even #7 LYKAN capable of showing early foot as he stretching out in distance for this race.

As far as TREASURY, he has run against some solid stakes type runners this year at the Fair Grounds and holds decent company lines. Following him in those races, he was able to establish a LONE lead not of the time, something he does not project to find here and that LONE trip assisting his finishing positions at times including the February win, a race run in the rain/WEATHER.

If there is an early battle, #2 NOTARY will look to capitalize and seek for back-to-back wins. His class, form and current figures stack up for this level, only a subtle step up from his most recent win and has been competitive under similar conditions in his races out of town. Both #1 MILLARD’S SMILE and #3 SILVER QUARTERS will look to pick up the pieces late though give up the first run to NOTARY looking at the OptixPLOT and at the same time lack the same figures/class. 

#3 STRIKE PRICE is a much different horse on the turf and could cycle back to a top effort. He had some subtle trips back at Turfway Park earning a follow this season. His top effort was not without TROUBLE finishing second on May 18^th and followed up that race with a compromised SLOG and outside post on June 7^th and another TROUBLE trip on June 25^th. The May 18^th race was also the return to turf and improvement for #4 STORM’S REFLECTION with a TROUBLE+ trip in his own right. He validated that effort in the two following starts both solid (B/B- OptixGRADE) efforts and of the two is more obvious, while still logical. Same can be said for #11 KINGSBURY ATTACK coming out of the common races and returning to this claiming level where he was more competitive/B- OptixGRADE.

#8 LAWMAKER could be given an excuse when making his first start in against winners two weeks ago. Not only did he have the surface switch with the races moved to the main track, but his race was also lost at the break with the SLOG and distanced behind a Very Slow (VS O4S) opening half mile making a mile and interest with everything against him. He was also washed out (WARM) that day and something not common for this individual. The surface switch could also assist #2 BRODY’S FLY another intended for the grass on July 7^th. While this will be his first start over the turf, his Tapeta numbers stand out over the dirt figures to suggest at the least we did not see their best effort two weeks ago.

#7 CLASSOFSITXYSEVEN is a longshot to win this race, though should step up off his current form and return to the turf, perhaps enough today to get a share.

#12 IZEONDEC (MTO) might have been looking for the race to shift to the dirt back on May 18^th and projected IMPROVEment in his second start of the season. He had a legit excuse on April 13^th with legit TROUBLE and still showing run making a WIDE MOVE. He was entered last month in an N2L claiming race at Ellis Park and a likely wise “trainer scratch” given this ones RunStyle coming from off-the-pace, a trip that is not suited to the Ellis Park main track profile.