Handicapper Tips & Picks

Clearly the connections of #1 KATHAAN are looking for the turf as she scratched from a similar event last Thursday with the races moved to the main track. KATHAAN fits right back in this field and with today’s race shape. The Contention is lighter with the “Snowflake” rating, though the higher 80 SpeedRate should present pace for Kathaan as a Large Square in Quad IV to make her run. In terms of form,  she has run well in each start this season (including Keeneland) racing against the flow (X_FLOW) and against the SPACED, extreme race shape on June 22^nd making a late CLOSE.

Her stablemate #3 SHE CAN’T SING is a contender in her own right though does require returning to top form. She could show more tactical speed coming back from the June 21^st Canterbury race where she was inside and not totally comfortable (SCARED) with the trip. #2 WAVE OF GOODNESS has won at this conditions course and distance with the connections bringing her back to Hawthorne suggesting intent for the win. #4 OMIXOCHITL has been running against a higher level of competition and requires some class relief (DROP) to compete. She will find that here on this circuit, showing intent by the connections though this race comes up competitive for the level and overall Omixochitl has not show much progression from her sophomore season. 

#5 CAT ATTACK steps up off a won and from a peak effort in her second start of the cycle – a repeating form cycle pattern back on June 22^nd. She was able to make the lead, SPACED out the field setting the pace and enough to hold late, though a taxing/HARD effort noted as she returns on less than 30-day recovery.

There are two runners in this spot for the tag and giving the preference of that pair to #3 EMITYAAZ. She has the benefit if recency and form returning to the main track with the right Surface/Distance RunStyle (OptixPLOT) for this race shape in a compact field. #2 GIANNA’S GIFT also races for a tag showing up off the 117-day layoff for Contreras. She tends to do her better running on the lead and should have pace pressure with #4 FREE LOVE in this field. Current form is also a concern with the layoff, a vet scratch back at Oaklawn Park, a recent trainer scratch and also showing up here at Hawthorne rather than at HS Indy where she is based, training and the barn running most of their horses here – and she could end up being favored.

The pace scenario does become tricky with both #1 RONAN and #5 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT stretching out in distance. RONAN has the overall edge of the pair and experience around two-turns in just limited starts, those three races under similar conditions to today turning in competitive efforts (B- OptixGRADE) and OptixFIG in line with today’s par and stacking up with both GIANNA’S GIFT and EMITYAAZ. 

#1 COUGER she was running against males on July 6^th and finds relief in this spot comparing race par. Overall this could be considered a slight step up in class given she will run today for the $15k purse though current form, figures and RunStyle/Plot fit with today’s event. #4 GHAALEB’S DREAMS finds herself some class relief for the first time this season. That is noted as she was entered for today’s conditions back on June 7^th and a vet scratch that day. Positive intent could be in play as she wheels back in just 11 days from the off-the-turf higher $15k conditioned event for this second start of the cycle. #3 MARIA’S GIFT finds a lateral change shipping in from the FanDuel races and number wise fits as she looks to move up on this circuit and with added ground. Trip and RunStyle is the challenge for #6 WEEKEND PASS as she lacks any early speed whatsoever though does have a closing kick and in terms of numbers form in line with others in this field.

Ward will return with the pair that made their seasonal debut here on June 8^th. Going into that race, #6 NO KAY NEVER had the edge of two on class/speed and similar coming back today. Some further intent could be in play as he brings in apprentice, Walter Rodiguez, their lone mount on the card. #2 STARS ON FIRE holds course experience breaking her maiden here last November, and to her credit did show some progress returning on June 8^th from a figure standpoint. She will also find a rider change and arguably upgrade with Emigh taking over from Lezcano.

Both Ward runners are positioned in Quad I, part of the “Fire” Contention and likely kept honest with the 50 SpeedRate along with rivals #5 WILMA MANKILLER and #8 SWEET NELLIE also show as Standard Quad I Squares above the ParLine. The ”Fire” Contention should assist #4 LURE’EM IN shown as the Larger Square (edge over #3 SECRET OPERATION) stalking from Quad II/IV.

#7 SUNSET PAYNTER showed a lot of ability on debut leading to a private purchase and ambitious placement by the connections at Oaklawn Park following. She showed run in those Oaklawn races more than the running lines and finishing positions suggest. The same carries from the June 8^th allowance race and is upgrade coming back in this spot with the SHORTER distance and preferred ONE_TURN. Her position on the Plot is tough to take on face value with Standard including the route races and lacking Surface/Distance data to Plot. 

#6 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY has been unfortunate in her races running into a better runner on the day and today things change as she is that horse. She is the clear horse to bear in this field she has the consistency number wise and form showing her in this third start of the cycle. She also shifts back to an outer post, the only other time she drew outside was her second start, the place finish and earning her career high 70 OptixFIG.

#2 COME ON LADY is the “new face” coming into this race with a steady work tab, a barn that already holds a win this season and shows up in a reasonable spot as an Illinois bred for her debut. #1 LADY WHITE SOX is a bit of a stab as she requires a turnaround to compete though she does hold the second highest 69 OptixFIG over this course and distance going back to last season, the June 24^th race and that effort is represented by the Large Surface/Distance Square. 

This race starts with assessing #1 BELPERRON one that holds the highest recorded OptixFIG in this field keying off her races closing out 2022. She will give up some recency returning off the 224 day layoff, and also her first start in against winner. Manley has shown intent to run here this season and with Orm returning in the saddle, noting a scratch from a similar conditioned allowance race (6f dirt) on July 12th.

#2 MADELYN BELLE turned in a solid effort on debut and validated that race coming back with a dominant B+ OptixGRADE to break her maiden on June 25^th. The B+ OptixGRADE suggests she can handle a step up in class, and this is a class rise all around as she take on both winners and open company for the first time.

Mojica was aboard MADELYN BELLE in that maiden score last out (and rival Bali Baby on 7/9) and opts to jump back aboard #7 TAR HEEL GIRL today. These two teamed up for the maiden win back in April and the connections have been looking to return to the turf (off turf scratch on 7/12) though certainly can handle the dirt. TAR HEEL GIRL must improve her figures, though has the ability to show that improvement as a lightly raced type and holding the 74 OptixFIG from the March 16^th race.

#6 BALI BABY could also project a move forward with the return to turf, sprint distance and the experience coming back from the layoff and the July 9^th race out of the way. As far as that day, BALI BABY lost her race before it starts. She was MANIC leading up to post time and giving off all indications she was not race ready that day. The slow start/SLOG, WIDE trip, and extreme race dynamic (SPACED) with open length pacesetting winner, Free Love, makes that race one to put a “line through” and is one that must be observed for a change in behavior today. 

Morning line favorite, #8 PEACH COBBLER is logical as an individual to compete in this race, though does not hold a strong edge in any category to justify taking the short price. 

Looking at OptixPLOT with the “Fire” Contention, higher 67 SpeedRate and five of the six sharing the E/EP RunStyle (OptixRPM) the race could set up for #6 STAR NATION from off the pace/Quad IV Square as a mild upset. She comes into this race with progressive form this season; she broke her maiden showing TWO_MOVES back in April and holds improving OptixGRADES/FIGS in this third start against winners.

As far as the early pace, it does project to be as Contentious as it appears on the Plot with #1 LOOKIN FOR BALA, a speedy type draw on the rail, #2 FIT TO FLY posted just to her outside along with Rivelli stablemate #4 ONASA part of the Quad I group above the ParLine.

#3 CORTESE is a tougher read both in terms of pace as she did stalk in her second start (6/26/22) at Churchill Downs as a juvenile and improved her numbers with racing. She returns from a longer 260 day layoff and first off the claim as well showing up on this circuit for Hernandez.  

There are many in this field capable under today’s conditions and even recording wins this season. Those runners are certainly capable right back in this spot; however a pair of “newer” faces offer intrigue.

There were some concerns on the placement for #7 CLEAR N CONVINCING coming back from the layoff as he was entered in sprints for the returns. The route distance today makes him more playable than the shorter events and potential positive with Mojica assigned today and was named on June 25^th, the most recent scratch when the races came off-the-turf. The distance change is also in play for #9 EXPROMPT returning here following an off-the-turf sprint scratch on July 5^th and is upgraded with the return to turf from the June 14^th event. He has some route races in his career with numbers that fit in today’s OFR and even a win at a similar distance going back to 2018 at Gulfstream Park. He is one that given the back class and surface switch can be upgraded at the right price.