Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 SWEET LITTLE LISA leads off the group with local experience and on class (many coming from previous maiden claiming races – or require the change) as one that squarely fits at the Special Weight level. She turned in strong efforts in both races settling for second – the BTL closing after TROUBLE and ground loss (X_WIDE) on her stablemate, Moment to Shine; and came back to RUSH up to the lead and stayed on as the BOS/Best of the Speed in the July 7^th race.

Her stablemate #8 RICHIE’S PRINCESS gives up experience on SWEET LITTLE LISA and also has some gaps in her works coming into this race and could require a start. The same concern #2 WAHIDA OF MARDAN showing a gap in the published works from the beginning of June until July.

First time starter #7 RUTH OF JUDAH worked 10.3 at the June sale last year and lands here to make a belated debut. Roussel has had success this season with limited starters and capable with debut runners.  

After the dominant win by #7 ICE BLAST on June 22^nd, a step up in class could have been warranted though comes back today with a drop off that win. It could be a case where another race did not fill and need to get a race while he is in form and fit. He came from off the pace in the win last month (and from the EX – EXCUSE) on June 4^th, though the change in class here should not have him as far off the pace.

#1 PISTOL BOX also comes back today off a 42 day freshening and looks to have intent for this race with Esquivel back aboard. They were the win rider here last October and the change with the timing appears positive looking for this one to get back to the winners circle and with the right trip required. Trip is the prime hurdle as he has back class to compete, form at this level from prior seasons as well as the B- OptixGRADE on May 31^st.

#4 CHRISMAS PRESENT comes into this race in form and off a BTL race on July 6^th. The distance today returning to two-turns is still the prime concern with this horse that does prefer ONE_TURN, but not without a chance, he does require the right trip and handling from Bendezu.

#8 GAGOOTS also might not be at his ideal at today’s 8.5f distance, though has been holding his form and has been able to get the win at the distance, albeit FLOW aided on June 14^th. His form is in line with #3 NOT VERY GENTLE coming back to this condition and one that is a true route horse, no distance limits with this guy – both come into this race with form to hit the board. #5 CAMPAIGN SPY returns to a route, his preferred distance, however, is softer on numbers and his races on this circuit last year at this level came up short.

The class drop came into play for #6 BIG BLUE on July 9^th and upgraded with the change that day. He lost his footing coming out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) and looked a bit off after, however still showed run to compete and record a B- OptixGRADE, current form being the question. Current form also the question for #2 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR coming back today off the 56-day freshening – he could benefit from that time as he had been running back on shorter rest and claimed from that May 31^st race makes his first start for DiZeo. 

#1 THE LAST FACT was peaked in his form cycle when claimed by Irion back on May 11^th and that regression in form impacted him the in the following starts at FanDuel. He could be cycling back to top form and appreciate the return to Hawthorne. The price requires compensation not only with his current form but given the connections the barn looking for their first win (at the time of this analysis) and rider Arrieta has struggled as well.

They have some early speed and there are others in here looking to take up the early chase including #8 WILDWOOD SECRET. He was a NO_FINISH here on July 5^th, though might have been a touch short on the day making his first start in 38 days and now has the fitness and return to Giles for this race. They will also make a change to an outer post for the first time on the dirt in more than a year and that might turn out to be a positive subtle change.

#6 TIME HEIST comes back to Hawthorne with progressive form in his third start of the form cycle. He turned in a decent race off the two month break and step up in class first off the claim for Watkins to run at the starter allowance level and improved again just over a week ago at FanDuel.

#3 PUBLIC SAFETY was a vet scratch following a WARM_UP back on May 11^th from a restricted $8k claiming race at odds of 7-1. He has been off since that race and returns here back to the $5k level for Rosin. His form, figures and class fit as a contender with himself as the biggest challenge and often from the gate as a horse that has a tendency not just to SLOG, but to Very (VSLOG) at the start combined with today’s 5.5f distance. 

#4 MEDWAY QUEEN is softer on numbers though is one that has been intended for the turf since her debut – a race taken off the grass at the Fair Grounds back in early 2022. She eventually made her way back to the turf sprinting breaking her maiden at Belterra Park last August. The seasonal change paired with her abilities lacked a spot to run on the grass and since those opportunities opened has been unlucky with races staying on the turf or drawing in – one of those races here unable to get in off the AE back on May 25^th. The lack of racing luck might have forced their hand and timing wheeling right back in a week for the July 6^th Belterra turf sprint where she showed run after a slow start and solid GALLOP+.

#3 FIRST KITTEN has only had limited starts on the turf and some “excuses” in those races from distance, class and trip playing a greater role than the surface itself. Going all the way back to her early days she recorded an 80 OptixFIG in MSW company sprinting 5.5f finishing second at Colonial. Her form coming into this race and since entering the Meraz barn gives her a look shifting back to the turf. She has early speed, numbers on par and form/confidence with Centeno in the saddle.

The class drop is in play for #9 PRINCESS STELLA and is not necessarily a negative in this case as the connections stepped her up where she pulled up the allowance win back on June 8^th and projecting to REGRESS off that race was rushed right back to run on June 18^th – all around a less than favorable spot. She returns here with the 38-day freshening and back under conditions she has proven form.

Trip will be key once again for #10 GO STORMIN GIRL one that has been unlucky this season and overdue for the win. She was the unofficial winner here on June 22^nd, a day she was “much the best” and was coming back for that race off a BTL (B OptixGRADE) effort on the turf on June 11^th. 

#3 BERNIE LOMAX lacked the pace to run at chasing a flow aided winner on July 4^th and was game for place. He should have the pace to target here looking at OptixPLOT and the Quad I filled with “Circles” and sits with a solid stalking Square right in the center of the Plot. As far as his form here at Hawthorne he ran a solid race in the first part of the meet – that April 13^th place finish behind a runner called Blackteca that was a major standout (PRERACE+) on the day for a live Gary Scherer barn.

#5 BREAKING NEWS has the back class and figures that make him a major contender returning to those efforts and could be intended here off the layoff for Contreras with Esquivel back aboard – those efforts on paper should see him much shorter than the double digits on the line. The longer 297-day layoff is in play and this one is getting up there in age. In terms of prior longer layoffs, he has not won, however has come back with his top effort, and upgraded considering the placement of his races running against much tougher than he faces here today.

In terms of the early pace, added pace could be in play with #6 HURTS SO BAD positioned with some first call speed in Quad III, though lacking the class (to the second call) as he steps up off a taxing (HARD) win just 10-days ago. #10 TEE BURNS should also add some early speed to the race noting he has been downgraded on Standard (current form) from the GATE (fractious) in the May turf race and breaking SLOG with TROUBLE_S soon after on July 9^th. They return in this spot and in for the tag today following a vet scratch against allowance company on July 19^thand will be joined by another Watkins speedster in #1 CINDY’S G MAN from the rail. #4 LAKE MILLS has legit early speed and while he is one of the Quad I Circles; he is upgraded out of that group and projects to be the “best of the speed” today. 

#6 PROTONIC POWER comes back from a BTL effort and show finish on June 15^th. He was compromised by the race shape (Snowflake) and significant ground loss (X_WIDE) trip. He should find more pace today with the 70 SpeedRate to offset another Snowflake contention. He has enough tactical speed and finishing ability shown on the Plot to get the jump on rival #3 FEBRUARY SON as he projects to close, run on late as that Quad IV Square.

#5 CAPITVATING MOON also returns from that common event and on that has not quite been to his top for this season. He also has started to develop at negative pattern at the GATE, reluctant to load, something of a concern for a horse that has graded stakes form. His stablemate #8 POWER THROUGH Has current form coming into this race though in terms of class is still lighter for this level as he steps up in class off a PERFECT trip to again take on open company – the tradeoff staying on the turf noting a scratch from the Black Tie Affair stakes when those races were moved to the main track.

#9 GREY STREAK won at this condition coming back to this circuit off the freshening on May 21^st. He was under the radar that day despite holding solid turf form and coming off a series of races at Turfway Park where he just did not fit.

#2 LAND MARK DEAL looks to move up with the return to the TURF, his preferred surface. As far as class goes, he must step up as well though to his credit, he has run competitively under similar conditions going back to races and form from the 2022 season. Class as well as pace comes into play for #4 COMMAND CENTRAL coming off a LONE lead and the “upset” allowance win in June. He does not project that “lone” lead today and downgraded as Large Quad III Circle with the higher SpeedRate.  His trip becomes tougher with #1 SAILING SOLO in the field, one that has early speed, the rail draw and should benefit (PREP) from the June 15^th return race as he comes back today with that race under his belt. 

Value should also land with #8 SHARP HERO a contender in this race that returns to Hawthorne under the radar and for the connections. She was dominant with the allowance win earning a B+ OptixGRADE and 93 OptixFIG back in April. Since that race she has been on the turf and holding her form, just not in the right spot as far as class and compromised by subtle trips.

The “Fire” Contention is paired with a lower 13 SpeedRate, a combination that could assist #1 GOLDEN BELL on the front end and with a subtle pace advantage. She has back numbers and class to fit in this stakes race and potential intent for the connections with a solid front end rider in Santiago aboard. The big knock overall is the pattern of layoff lines though there are others in here projected to take money and could see her a fair number.

#2 CHEETARA is no stranger to Hawthorne, she won the Crestwood Stakes here last year, a similar type event as far as class, purse, and distance. She comes into this race with current form, the stakes win at Pimlico during Preakness weekend and off a solid place finish behind a heavily backed (bet down to 7-5 from the 8-1 ML) open length pacesetting winner called Alva Starr. Rival #3 CHARLIE’S PENNY finishing second in the Crestwood last year comes back as she makes her second start off the layoff. She returned with a win in the Lady Slipper on May 26^th at Canterbury Park, though had to work HARD for that win, pushed every step of the way and given the added recovery time possibly part of the reason (along with a scratch looking to draw in as MTO in a 7/18 CBY stakes) she has been off the two months since.

Morning line favorite #4 OEUVRE had the field over a barrel in the Third Chance stakes and her class overcame a stumble at the start (TROUBLE_S) winning as she pleased (NO_PUSH) posting a 92 OptixFIG and B+ OptixGRADE. She has been entered for the turf twice since that race and does appear grass is her preferred surface. This is a solid field, and she requires a top effort on the main track and does not hold many advantages in this event to justify a shorter price. #6 QUEENS UP is another that given the morning line projects to take wagering support though is an easier one to play against as she does not hold any edge in this field and could struggle to even hit the board. 

Morning line favorite, #9 CONGRATS ON FIFTY will make his belated second start and going back to the debut at Oaklawn Park is one that looked to need some class relief. He remains here at the MSW level, though a shift in class with the circuit switch, something that should assist though still must step up giving up recency and experience over the grass for his turf debut.

#12 PIRATE MARMALADE has had some tough luck trying to get a start and could find similar here sitting on the AE. They have been patiently waiting for the turf noting two off scratches back on July 7^th and June 14^th when those events were moved to the main track. Perez has #4 ICE SHARD in the main body of the field and one that comes back off a B OptixGRADE on June 29^th, a “winning” race for the level. The distance change here throws in another hurdle for this off-the-pace runner (pattern of SLOG) as the come back today at the shorter 5f sprint distance.

#5 DARK SOLUTION is the old man in the sea as a seven-year-old gelding. He is a TURF horse, his numbers on the grass stand out in this field and should benefit from the surface switch and conditioning as he makes his second start back off the layoff. #3 FAST FORWARD also returning from the July 6^th event should appreciate the fitness from the WIDE trip and the move back to the grass as well. #7 SMILING STORMY decided to wait for a grass race scratching out of the July 6^th event rather than run back on the main track where he has TROUBLE-S and an X_WIDE trip back on June 14^th. His 63 OptixFIG from the debut, a tough spot to debut around two-turns back in May suggests he has a move forward and should find himself both competitive in this field and under the radar.

Getting creative, #8 JAKE’S CHANNEL could show more in this race and have intent on his side. Esquivel picks up the mount and this race his second off the layoff and should gain fitness as part of a solid early pace before losing ground/NO_KEEP and was not asked/NO_PUSH after. 

A really solid card kicks off on the turf as it is likely the pair of Rivelli runners will take their share of action. While both could be right there, I'll give the nod to 7-RUTH OF JUDAH as she debuts from the Roussel barn. The $75k OBS purchase has put together a nice pattern of drills leading into this spot for a barn that tends to have them ready to go at first asking. 4-SWEET LITTLE LISA ran a solid race on the dirt last out but she is likely better on the grass. She looks to rate close early but doesn't need the lead to win. Let's see if she can rate and pounce in the lane. 8-RICHIES PRINCESS debuts for Rivelli as she's likely to show some speed from the outside draw.  She has a consistent pattern of drills and her April gate work was snappy. Let's see if she is sent for the top from the outside.

Really not a whole lot of speed in this spot as there's the potential for a slow pace with a bunched field. Thinking 6-BIG BLUE could inherit the lead and contend the entire way. He dropped to this level for his last start and was hung wide into the lane. If he can get away in good order and save some ground, it may be able to hang around late. 3 -NOT VERY GENTLE has been excellent all year, finding the board in seven straight starts. He also could rate a bit closer to the pace as he will look to get the jump on the late closers. 7-ICE BLAST drops off the victory as he won his last and was claimed but that claim was voided by the veterinarian. He will likely need some pace to chase as he figures to sit back early and close in the stretch.

Looks like the potential for some pace to chase in this spot as 3-4 could potential look for the lead. With that in mind I'll give the nod to 3-PUBLIC SAFETY as he takes the class drop off the layoff today. He has a couple of solid works toward his return and should be able to rate and close well in the lane. 8-WILDWOOD SECRET is one with speed but he may also be the best of the speed in here. He battled the entire way in his last and could get sent for the lead with the bug boy in the saddle. 6-TIME HEIST is a tough on to figure as he's another of those horses that were winners earlier in the meet and were claimed, only to have that claim voided in the post race exam. He has since run against tougher in his last couple and held his own but is now back to the spot where he was victorious three races back.

From the looks on paper, this race seems more like a dirt race than a turf bunch. With many of these more proven on dirt, it's worth looking for some in that could possibly upset. Taking a shot with 1-GET N TIPSY as she is one of the more experienced turf runners in here. She's had her share of success on the grass and looked better on the turf in her last start. Let's see if she moves up while sprinting at a big price. 9-PRINCESS STELLA is the other proven turf runner but her price will be much shorter. She has speed which may not hurt from the outside draw as she will get a good angle into the turn. 7-SAMARITA has some tactical speed as she may be able to rate close and contend throughout. The main question for her will be how she takes to the grass as she comes off a solid dirt effort last out.

A talented bunch with some much speed to the inside. With all of the pace in the race, and the six furlong distance, things may set up nicely for the outside runners to close ground late. Starting with 10-TEE BURNS as the outside draw and pace setup could be perfect for him. He showed a nice ability to rate and rally in his last as he ran in a tough allowance race that came off the grass. He likes this track and the added distance should suit him nicely. 9-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY also figures to rate back early and run on late as he comes out of the same race as Tee Burns last out. He got started a bit late in his last but the added eighth will benefit his chances. 8-RACARINO could be the sleeper in this spot as he ran back to back good races here early in the meet. We welcome Shorty Perez back to Hawthorne as he is named to ride.

A really solid field here as pace will make the race. It looks like there's a couple with speed in here which could help the chances of 6-PROTONIC POWER to rate and rally in the lane. The key change could be the switch in the saddle to a stronger finishing rider in Emigh as a well-timed move will put him in the mix. 8-POWER THROUGH is one with speed but may have company from Command Central and Sailing Solo early. He was game in his return race last out but the added sixteenth off his last start is the main concern. 1-SAILING SOLO is the other with speed who looks to go from the rail. He is proven at the distance and has the potential to battle the entire way. Let's see if he can shake loose early and steal this one or if he's in a battle every step of the way.

Competitive maiden turf sprinters close out the card. There's a few different routes to go in this spot as 10-A P BLAZING GREEN should get a good trip from the outside. He has the ability to stalk the pace and should get a good tracking trip into the turn. If he can finish like he did in his last, that may be enough for the victory. 4-ICE SHARD shortens up after a solid turf try in his last. He did close on the dirt in his debut and should be able to get into the mix late once again. 9-CONGRATS ON FIFTY showed speed in his Oaklawn debut and has been away since that start in May. He has a couple of works toward the return but the time off since that debut leaves some questions.

It might not be a quite a no brainer but 4-SWEET LITTLE LISA finished second in both her starts, Both were scheduled for turf but only the first was contested on the weeds. She came from off the pace in her first start and led most of the way in last. Should be at the top of her game in the third start of her career. 7-RUTH OF JUDAH has been training well toward her career debut. Well-bred runner (incidentally she was bred, in part, by Springhouse Farm in Kentucky, the same as top choice) races for connections that bring them ready. She could be a bit of a price. Pay heed. 6-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN is quick from the gate. She ran competitively in Minnesota last year in her only previous turf race. She’s older and maybe faster now. Might consider including the price shot in vertical gimmicks.

7-ICE BLAST looks like the best of these. Short-priced winner of last versus better was claimed from that race but the vet voided that claim. Now he’s dropping in class and his connections are daring someone to claim him again. 3-NOT VERY GENTLE and 8-GAGOOTS fell victim to a solo front runner in last. They both closed well but there was no catching the lone speed. The pace of this race should be more fair but now they will be tasked with catching a class-dropping winner of last.

6-TIME HEIST should be tough in this spot. Beaten favorite of last drops into a far easier spot. It certainly helps that the pace of this race should be fairly brisk, helping to set things up for his late run. 3-PUBLIC SAFETY drops even more, and like top choice, should love the way the pace sets up. Can run by them all. 5-WILDWOOD SECRET is capable of coming from off the pace but, if he gets sent, he could turn out to be the best of the speed.

9-PRINCESS STELLA has been in great form and would almost look like a standout if there weren’t so many in here that never ever raced on the lawn. She won three of her 11 grass races and has been good on the main track. There is plenty of speed in here to keep her company on the front end but her turf experience could be the determining factor. 6-SEAWARD shouldn’t be ignored. With two grass victories, only top pick has more. She won a turf starter here last fall. Might be able to surprise again. These turf sprints are usually filled with speed runners and this race is no exception. 2-LONG TALL WOMAN might benefit most of the probable blistering pace. She finished second in her lone start of the weeds. Might fly by all of them late in this race.

5-BREAKING NEWS makes his first start of the year and his first on this track but he has been working bullets in preparation for his return to racing. This well-traveled runner could be meeting his easiest field ever. He’s as quick as any in here but just as capable coming from slightly off the pace. Should be ready for his sharp barn. 2-RIVSONAROLL says catch me. He tired late in both races this year but he’s another meeting possibly his easiest field ever. Might never look back. 9-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY could turn out to be the best closer in this speed-filled race. He never fired in a race originally scheduled for turf in last but he had been in good form prior. Can bounce back in a big way.

Multiple stakes-winning 1-SAILING SOLO has only had three races since 2021 but did manage to run well in all of them. Speedy 8-year-old was favored in his local debut and led most of the way but was passed late and finished second. It’s been nearly six weeks since that race but he did have a couple strong works in the interim. Might have the edge this time that he seemed to lack in last. 10-GITA’S LAD is entered for main track only but with thunderstorms predicted for all morning, that might come to pass. Dangerous speed must be caught. 8-POWER THROUGH could be the best of the speed if this race stays on the lawn. 6-PROTONIC POWER will get a lot of play despite winning only one of his six turf races. Not sure he can win but he will be coming late.

4-OEUVRE has been very tough locally, winning seven of her nine Hawthorne races, 11 of 19 of lifetime starts, with earnings of over $500k. She owns great tactical speed and can win from off or on the pace. But, she never ran on an off track. However, the rain is scheduled to stop well before our scheduled late post and this race will take place late in the card so chances are the track will be fast by post time. 2-CHEETARA shipped here last summer and won the Crestwood Stakes, beating many of the rivals in this race. She was favored in that race but could be a relative longshot in here despite continued success. She’s another capable of winning on or off the lead. 3-CHARLIE’S PENNY finished second to Cheetara in the Crestwood last year but she’s been even more successful in the interim since that race. She finished out of the money only one in six races since and that race was on the lawn.

9-CONGRATS ON FIFTY looks like the best of the speed. He tired in his lone race, a six-furlong contest at Oaklawn, but he’ll be fitter and in easier company in his local debut. With a second-place finish in his lone turf start, 4-ICE SHARD looks like the one to beat. However, that race was at a mile and this race will be contested at five furlongs, a whole different ballgame. Not sure he’ll even be in tough with the field early. 12-PIRATE MARMALADE is a first timer with slow drills but a terrific turf pedigree. Might be worth a look if he draws into the race. 5-DARK SOLUTION has had some good turf races at Canterbury, mostly against Minnesota breds, but at least we know he can handle the lawn.

T 3 Greatest Sunset 1 Country Cutie 6 Miss Dovetail

P 3 Ponda Beach 9 Rockin Stando 2 So Into You

T 3 Hallmark Janie 2 Wastingnotime 1 Miss Americana

T 3 Love Kitten 5 Soubrette 10 Helpful Princess

P 1 Lets Go Endofaera 4 All Jk 3 Jada Caroline

T 5 Its Swan Time 10 Dan Oh Mite 6 Crazy Lovin

P 4 Brandon Hanover 7 Pekeson 5 Rj Rocks

T 5 Bob Lee Bell 2 Help Pedro 7 Little Chipper

T 3 Topville 7 Swift Dan 4 Atta Girl Dani

P 5 Teelatini 2 McKira 1 Topville Ohsolucky

P 1 Lovetheparty 2 Trelicious 3 Polk Dotlady

P 2 Cruisersfoxyjudy 4 Belikethis 7 Track N Field

P 7 Topville Alexander 6 Grigoriev 4 Woodmere Alvin

P 3 Silverstone 6 Petacular Rock 1 Mystical Rock