Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ARCH FLYER should find the right trip today sitting right off #6 COOKIN ROSES and taking over with first run as shown as a Square in Quad I. The trip is key to have the edge over a familiar rival in #5 GHAALEB’S MAGIC also returning today.

#1 HER GOLD MINE comes back off a battle and tough beat finishing in a photo on July 16^th. She had a longshot look that day with sneaky form at 6f and ran to it. She returns to that preferred distance though has a tough task as far as holding form on the quick turnaround. 

The race shape is tricky with the lower SpeedRate, a “Sun” Contention and the front runners all EP types, no real “need the lead” runners in this field. #3 MEDICINE TAIL could take up that role and look to improve as he makes his second start of the form cycle. Going back two weeks to the July 14^th race, he projected to show early speed though based on the paddock visuals (PRERACE-) suggested that day was not going to be his day. He will wheel right back, find both a rider and class change paired with the fitness to suggest he is in a better spot today to compete and will assess his visuals on race day as well.

#5 GAME BOY BENNY took up the role as a pacesetter for his stablemate winner, Danville on June 29^th. The softer pace (FLOW) and LONE lead assisted to hold for place and should benefit with the return to sprinting this afternoon.

#6 LYKAN lands here making his first start for the claiming tag, class change for this gelding following a vet scratch at this higher $50k Optional Claiming event on July 19th. As far as his form this season, he should move up in this field off his races here this meet naturally though the recent scratch and drop is something to assess as far as value as there are the reason to have some pause attached.

#7 YOU’RE IN COREY is a bit of an outsider on the win end, though holds form coming into this race and form over this track sprinting to get a share at a price. He has the recency edge returning to Hawthorne over #1 BASEBALL POLITICS one that fits off his form this year, though is another in this field showing up for the tag today after a vet scratch (6/10 at PRM) from an allowance race.

#2 TRY TRY AGAIN will race today for the tag, though as far as class this is a step up for him off the races this season, closer in terms of par/OFR to the June 25^th event. #4 LATIN CASINO holds the edge of the two on that front, though overall does not have much of an edge has been fortunate in terms of trip with the two wins under similar conditions with the LONE win back on April 13^th and prevailing in a BLANKET finish on June 15^th. 

This race is quite the toss up and trip looks to be the key to the outcome as many in this field share similar form and figures. #4 MASQUERADE BALL is one to get creative with as he could sit the trip and holds some buried form to compete in this race. Going back to May 11^th his first start here this season, he looked to need softer given the DROP Keyword and today’s race has a lower 73-76 OFR than the 78-72 from earlier this season. He had trip/form adversity over the turf on June 7^th and stepped up showing a sneaky CLOSE in the July 7^th sprint. Rosas wheels right back for this spot and return to the preferred route of ground.

#2 STOLICH has form and Surface/Distance (Plot) form to make him one of the more “obvious” types in this field, something that could just be enough to win. The sophomore runner lacked a strong edge and there were alternatives in the July 5^th race that had him an underlay that afternoon as the betting favorite.

#2 ICE AXE recorded a BTL effort with adversity to finish second here under similar conditions three weeks ago; though #6 MERLOTTI could be the one to take from that event (see OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines, as he had legit TROUBLE and a trip that compromised his chances for a better finishing position – both horses earning the same B- OptixGRADE.

In addition to ICE AXE, Perex returns with #5 MANUEVER one that also turned in a B- OptixGRADE in his debut and could move up off that race for this second start with added ground and where Lezcano ends up.

#7 BOONE’S PATH has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field and could have that edge in this group. With that said and following this one since his debut and on this circuit has shown some distance limitation, factor that played a role with the place finish here back on December 31^st. #1 RICKY’S BEST is a “wild card” in this race, he debuted late last season and capable of improvement given the trip (SLOG, NO_PUSH with open length winner and field spaced out at the wire) along with his age, maturity, and current works to suggest he still has a lot more to show. 

The pace could be more contentious than it appears (Yellow PlotFit) on the Plot as #1 JUST A WONDER and #2 JUJU’S SPECIALGIRL have the ability to be out in front early; the race shape could still work to the benefit of #7 PLUS CHIC as she holds the outside post and tactical speed to dictate the trip and adjust as required with that draw. She comes into this race with progressive for and improving speed figures as she returns to sprinting and the turf, her preferred surface/distance.

#4 MY LIPS ARE SEALED fits as a contender on class and speed figures though will be tested with today’s sprint distance, a change for her and a second choice spot by the connections as the races came off the turf on July 13^th (8.5f turf) at this condition and this spot might be the only available option.

Childers has a solid pair in this race: #6 CHROME ATTACK comes in with the higher figures though could be peaked in her form cycle and a tougher task looking to pair wins. #5 LIPLINER must hold her form and requires a top effort, though could look to pair as she makes her second start of the cycle and off a BTL effort with a less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) by Giles on June 18^th. 

This is a solid field lined up for the Work All Week stakes as there are many quality and hard knocking race horses in this race. The early pace should be set and contentious with #1 KAVOD and #6 TAPE TO TAPE both shown in Quad I above the Par Line and with both runners “Circles” could set up for a stalker. #2 NAVY SEAL and #3 WENT WEST should look for that exact trip and have the edge as Squares over #7 DEVIL’S TOWER. They will be required to keep those quality pacesetters in range to compete for the top spot. Their Plot position and form is upgraded overall and in terms of trip over #5 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE and #4 W W CANDY, the Quad IV pair.

#2 NAVY SEAL ran in this race last year though was not in his top form at the time and required a 126-day layoff after. He has held his form this season and given some local conditioning in the June 11^th allowance recording a B- OptixGRADE with a CLOSE after the SLOG. He has worked steadily since, the flashy work horse or one that posts fast times in the morning and has Olaf Hernandez back in the saddle to suggest intent.

#3 WENT WEST is an easier one to get to “on paper” with the higher speed figures and stakes form. His current form also fits in this second start off the layoff with some intent pointed for this race. Going back to the June 11^th layoff return, he looked to be given the “PREP” based off the visuals; the signs he was cold on the board and also in-running looked short on fitness for that race day. 

#6 TAPERINEA should move up as she projects to IMPROVE off the June 21^st allowance. The class change and projected pace with the higher 75 SpeedRate should suit her RunStyle with today’s dynamic tracking as a Square from Quad II/IV. #5 COMMAND POINT shows a similar Plot position for today’s race though will be class tested with the rise, something she could handle at the right price coming off the B+ OptixGRADE.

#1 PRANCIPANTS also looks to step up in class from the $10k level, though looks to be a bigger hurdle for her with the top 81 OptixFIG two weeks ago and B OptixGRADE. The class change showing up on this circuit is a more lateral move for #7 CHARGE ACCOUNT, one that could be running here with the lack of turf racing at Gulfstream Park right now.

#4 MIZZEN ASH is another that projects to move up today and step up under similar conditions from the June 21^st race. The timing was off for her that afternoon peaking in her form cycle from the two prior grass races out at HS Indy and looked “over the top” showing up here on short rest. She has been given proper rest with the 36-days following that form cycle and should return to a top effort here.

#3 MORRIE’S JOY is given a  look in here at long odds she can outrun. She comes into this race with steadily improving form in this third start back off the layoff and they key class DROP to take another move forward and now in the right spot for her abilities to compete.  #8 CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR is another that a longshot case can be made for in this event. She has back numbers that fit on par and could show improvement today in her second start for Rodriguez noting she was a NO_PUSH and looked to be “given/PREP” the July 5^th start and likely to be on the lead (Quad I) today. 

With a couple to battle it out on the front end, it should set things up for 5-GHAALEB'S MAGIC to rate and rally in the lane. She just missed at 5 1/2 last out and the added 16th will only help. 2-ARCH FLYER always seems to contend but has to worry about a possible pace duel with Cookin Roses early in here. If she's able to rate, she will likely contend the entire way. 3-TAP N TWINE will also be in a good spot if the speed hooks up early. She was closing some ground late in her last and should be a nice price.

The stalking style of 1-BASEBALL POLITICS should be beneficial as he comes in off a pair of wins at Fanduel. He has run well over this track and figures to tuck in right behind Latin Casino in this spot. If he gets the jump on the closers, he could pull off the upset. 6-LYKAN will need that pace to chase as he figures to sit back early and close ground in the lane. He gets some class relief which could make all the difference in today's race. 3-MEDICINE TAIL also takes the class drop as he's one who may try to make the lead. His last was too tough but there's not nearly the speed to contend with in here as he should be able to potentially shake loose early.

With the class drop, 6-BRODY'S FLY figures to get a perfect trip from just off the pace and come running in the lane. He chased on the turf in his last and held well late. In here he should have a couple ahead of him that could be pushing things along as he may be able to wait until the lane to make his move. 3-WICKED SURPRISE is another that will be in a good stalking spot as he has been solid in his last couple. His form continues to trend in the right direction as he should be able to contend throughout as well. 1-SEQQUAYA doesn't like to win but has been great at running second of late. She's facing the boys in this spot but still figures underneath based off her current races.

Trainer Manny Perez has a pair in here with a shot as pace could make this race. 2-ICE AXE has not been great getting away from the gate but ran on nicely late in his last. He picks up Tavares in this spot as the inside trip and finishing kick could get him there in time. 6-MERLOTTI is another expected to close late. He raced into some traffic trouble last out and may sit a bit further back early before making one run late. 5-MANEUVER ran a nice race while sprinting in his last. He stretches out here as we will see if he has the ability to rate close and run on late.

I like this move of switching to a sprint for 4-MY LIPS ARE SEALED as she fits well at this level and should be able to rate and rally late. She comes into here off a sharp drill and gets a strong finisher in Emigh in the saddle. 7-PLUS CHIC has speed as she will look to clear from the outside. She also shortens up off her last as she ran a good race at this level and distance here last fall. Look for her to contend throughout. 2-JUJU'S SPECIALGIRL was very good on the grass last summer in Indiana and comes over here as Indy is off this week. She could also contend early as the grass and this distance have suited her nicely in her career.

Recently it appears that 7-CHARGE ACCOUNT has been at her best when on the grass. She ran a big race at Gulfstream two back and just missed on the synthetic in her last. She has enough early speed to rate close as she should be able to wait and make her move at the top of the lane. 5-COMMAND POINT may be a bit further back as she steps up off a pair of solid races for $10k in her last couple. She picks up Esquivel in the saddle, who has ridden this course well throughout his career as he may look to try to get her into the mix earlier today. 1-PRANCIPANTS has speed and may look to try to steal this race today. She never looked back on the dirt in her last and if nobody goes with her, the potential to run away again is there.

An unexpected speed duel developed between a couple members of this field the last time they met and it compromised both their chances. They are likely to be joined by another front runner today. Guessing all three will go for the lead and that should set things up for the late movers. 5-GHAALEB’S MAGIC fits that description perfectly. Guessing he cruises by late. 2-ARCH FLYER went off as the even-money favorite in that last race but he was one caught up fighting for the lead. However, he doesn’t need the lead to win. Can stalk before coming on late. 6-COOKIN ROSES was given a breather since early June but he had a night drill to get him back on his toes. He is the quickest member of this field but he does tire late. We’ll see how long he hangs on.

Tough little race. There are no toss outs. Most in here have been in lackluster form, including 6-LYKAN, but he has been racing in some awfully tough fields at Oaklawn, Churchill, Ellis and here. He hasn’t won in at least two years and he only accomplished victories in three of his 37 starts but he could get on the right track with the class relief. The two Manley-trained runners both figure prominently. 1-BASEBALL POLITICS won his last two downstate but he was also running well in allowance company here prior to those starts. Recent claim 4-LATIN CASINO is having a great year. He won the last two times he took on rivals similar to these and overall scored in four of his nine local starts.

7-BLUE TEARDROPS might surprise. He showed little in his races but was running on turf and synthetic tracks. He’s been much improved since moving to dirt. Just graduated. Stretches out of the main track for the first time. Might lead throughout. 6-BRODY’S FLY drops in class. He’s been competitive against better in last couple. However, he finished up the track three races back when he raced at this level. Has to prove he’s good enough. Have to appreciate the recent form of 1-SEQUAYA. She finished second in her last three starts. However, she’s a mare meeting the boys and she won only one of 37 starts.

Runners from the Perez barn usually need a race or two. 5-MANEUVER was no exception. He made his debut in a race that was too short for him but rallied well enough to finish third. Stretches out. Has the benefit of experience. He’s bred to enjoy the longer distance. Could get there. 7-BOONE’S PATH could be on the lead every step of the way. He has been running out of gas late in his races but this is probably his easiest field yet. Might last. The other Perez-trained runner, 2-ICE AXE, is likely to get far more action after a series of competitive events. He finished in the money in all three local starts while meeting some pretty tough company. 

Wide open contest. I’m thinking that 2-JUJU’S SPECIAL GIRL will be the quickest of these. Ships in from Indiana. Showed little in last but that was her first race since September. That race could have primed her for this one. Obviously 4-MY LIPS ARE SEALED will get a ton of play, as most of Block-trained runners usually do, but she could be vulnerable. The previous shortest race of her career was a mile. Not sure she can close enough at this shorter distance to get into top gear. 5-LIPLINER seldom gets much respect but has a knack for getting close. She’s been good on and off the pace. Narrowly lost last. Could be primed for the upset.

6-TAPE TO TAPE could be tough. This well-traveled gelding won six of his last eight starts, dating back to last year. He just finished third in a stakes at Presque Isle after wiring the field in another stakes at Prairie. But, he’s unlikely to get an unchallenged lead today. Will he prove to be vulnerable? 1-KAVOD could be every bit as quick as top choice and he has arguably met tougher fields in his career. He’s been gelded since his last start after finishing second in his last two. Many improve dramatically after gelding. Don’t ignore. 7-DEVIL’S TOWER sports some of the highest recent speed figures in this field. He was claimed two starts back and promptly won for his new connections. Should love the pace ahead of him. 4-W W CANDY has home-field advantage as well as the possible advantage of being a sharp closer in a race that could feature blistering fractions. 

7-CHARGE ACOUNT ships from a tougher circuit. She’s been competitive lately at Gulfstream and narrowly lost last, though that race was on the main track. She does her best running late. 5-COMMAND POINT moves up in class but she looked sharp winning last after narrowly missing in her previous start. She’s another likely to be flying late. Can get there. 1-PRANCIPANTS also moves up. She was running in $4k claimers earlier this year and is already making her 12^th start of 2023 but he looks like the only real speed in this race.

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