Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 LUNARCHY has enough early speed to not only make the lead from the rail but prove “best of the speed over former stablemate #3 OPALINE. The two come out of the same July 16^th common race where LUNARCHY had TROUBLE_S and OPALINE ran evenly throughout.

#5 SISTER SAINT figures as the main threat and contender in this race finding class relief as she shifts over to this circuit. Granitz has been live this meet spotting horses where they can compete and looks to be the case here once again. #2 MUD HUT also finds class relief though tough to back off her July 6^th visuals, a day where more was projected from here coming off the IMPROVE back in April and EX – EXCUSE with the poor start (TROUBLES+) on June 14^th. 

#3 MIRUS is on the improve since returning off the layoff and connections finding the turf, the surface intent coming back this year. She comes into this race off a subtle July 8^th trip racing WIDE-est throughout and showing a couple MOVE-s and overall interest despite the running line and finishing position.

#4 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE is another that was looking for the turf going back to an off-turf scratch last October and again here in May. She had to debut on the main track last year with the lack of turf racing in December and stayed in despite the surface switch (WIDE trip) on July 16^th. Her lone turf start was back on June 22^nd when making her first appearance of the season off the 201 day layoff and placed in a race won by her more fancied stablemate, I’m Box Office.

The class drop moves up #7 MEMPHIS PRAYER in this spot. He has been racing competitively all season at the higher conditioned claiming races and just coming up short since the win back in April. The drop makes sense in the closing month of the meet and looking to place horses where they can win. Trip has played a role in the outcome with his RunStyle from off the pace, though should be able to stay closer in contact with the change in competition.

While the projected favorite is logical, there are others in here that fit today’s conditions: #3 VERRAZANOINTHESKY was dominant under similar claiming conditions back on May 31^st and had prior to that win, had shown run against the higher claiming level including a BTL effort on April 16h and a legit EX – EXCUSE with TROUBLE+ on May 11^th.  Current form was the greater concern than class or surface when coming back off the freshening and claim on July 23^rd. He showed run in spots and seems intent with the class change and timing wheeling back here in just 11-days.

#2 POWERFUL MAN should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start of the form cycle. It is a subtle pattern though a horse that tends to run a top every third start and has the same progressive pattern coming into this race as he did back on June 4^th. #4 KRAMDEN is another that has started to move forward in his form cycle. He has yet to run back to his faster figures from late 2022, though has shown himself to be competitive and moving forward as of late.

#6 RISKY BOY also finds a reasonable class drop looking for his first win of the season, however, has a different hurdle in this race with the change in distance stretching out to a route for the first time in a longtime. The distance change is also in play for #1 HATCHET CREEK as he makes just his third career start around two turns and two of those route races were contested on the turf. He looks to be on the lead right from the rip and on form and class has the edge over the other likely pacesetters, #5 READY READING and #8 BLOOMING GARDEN – one that is coming back today off a strong effort, though recorded a new top and requires a repeat of that June effort; pairing tops is something he has struggled with in the past. 

This is one of the more competitive races on the card and could be more complicated than it would appear on paper. Value should still sit with #1 BLOODY MARY MORNIN showing up in this spot with the surface and distance change of today’s race. Her current form and placement has been for the route distance and on the turf/synth. She has back numbers and form both on the main track and in limited sprint races. Her most recent one turn race was a competitive B- OptixGRADE racing X_FLOW over at Turfway Park in March.

#2 ORNERY ANGEL is another that should offer some value in this race. While she might not look like much “on paper” her Plot position/shape is one of the strongest in this field to upgrade on that alone as she could be one of the longer (if not the longest) on the board.

The other Large Square on #6 JULIAISON shifts on the Surface/Distance Plot. She projects to run from off the pace though could sit the trip and the early pace should be honest with both #3 STOPSHOPPINGAMY and #4 SAMARITA shown together as Circles in Quad I above the ParLine. #7 PALACE MAGIC sits as a smaller Square on both Plots to suggest she will run her race here, though in terms of class/speed (GRADE/FIG) is lighter for today’s OFR and in with today’s group – softer overall for #5 WAR COLORS as well.

A case can be made for both #8 EMITYAAZ and #9 LONG TALL WOMAN on form coming into this race with EMITYAAZ given the clear upgrade of the two as she projects to be value as the longer of this pair on the board.  

Morning line favorite, #4 RED FLAG ALERT fits as a major contender in this race with the longer layoff being the one knock to his form at the shorter expected price. He has been able to run well off a similar layoff in the past to consider even with that timing.

Some backups could be used in this case: #7 PINEDALE makes a belated return to the turf, a surface he has yet to win over though in his defense he has only three grass races with two of though out in California and the other on a higher Optional Claiming $75k event over a “good” turf course at Ellis Park. His form and figures for those races stack up with his current form and his current form keeps him in the mix. Similar main track form is in play for  #8 SEMINOLE BEACH though the intention for turf and ability to step up on the grass is less clear. #3 COMMAND CENTRAL pulled off the upset to win the June 25^th allowance though given the LONE trip, course profile with moisture and returning to the TURF, a preferred surface, his win was less “surprising” in hindsight. He has enough form to find himself competitive back under today’s claiming conditions though should be a much shorter price today.

#5 SIERRA HOTEL could go off much shorter than his morning line with the return to the two-turn distance and Emigh, that combination in play for the two wins earlier this season on the turf. He fits off those races, though again should be shorter in this race without much of an edge over some others with “buried” form and his not so much coming off the SLOG and turf sprint distance two weeks ago. #2 FLY NIGHTLY also comes into this race pairing wins, though will be tested with the step up in class here on the quick two week turnaround first off the claim.

#6 DRAMATIC KITTEN does not have as strong of form coming into this race as the other two and should be the longest of the set and even could hold that position in this field. On his best day, he has turf numbers that fit, a couple of those efforts over this course last season and even for the June 21^st effort earning a 76 OptixFIG. 

New face on this circuit, #6 RIBBONSINHERHAIR returns to the main track and finds some class relief off her dirt races this year at Oaklawn Park to upgrade on this circuit. She has some subtle trips racing in TRAFFIC in April and coming back with the WIDE trip and trip making a move to finish third earning an 85 OptixFIG, a number that stands out as a contender for this race.

#4 BALI DREAMIN stayed on as the BOS after making a RUSH to the lead on July 13^th stalked by the winner, Dream Streak. BALI DREAMIN earned a B OptixGRADE for the effort and given a look coming back today under similar conditions. #3 STYLE turned in a solid effort (B- OptixGRADE) after completely missing the break (VSLOG), and the pattern of SLOG with the run from well off the pace is the main knock when assessing value.

As far as class and speed, #8 CANDY KICK fits with today’s OFR and with today’s group. There could be some intent coming off the layoff and landing in this spot protected after scratching from a claiming race back in January at Oaklawn Park and has the clear issues that followed. Her form is tough to read with the pattern of layoff lines and a concern there though that form, especially come of those main track sprints stack up. Trip will be key for her as well as she can show the SLOG pattern and run from off the pace.

Morning line favorite, #9 SPECIALIZIN does not fit her assignment in that role. Her debut number at Churchill was her strongest to date (82 OptixFIG) and has yet to run back to that number and without excuse to do so including the most recent start on July 12^th with the LONE lead lacking a lead change (NO_LEAD) and NO_FINISH with just enough to hold for place in a four horse field as the favorite. #1 RAINY MOUNTAIN is softer on class returning here to open allowance company though numbers, form and RunStyle similar (if not slightly stronger) than SPECIALIZIN.

#2 LURE’EM IN fits here on class, however, is another that is lightly on speed figures coming into this race. She has presented as a TURF runner going back to the January Fair Grounds race and requires a new top to win today’s race. As far as her form this year, she can be given a look getting back to the turf sprint condition coming out of a strong Churchill Downs race in May and from the recent July 20^th effort making a WIDE MOVE after a slow start behind “lone” winner, Stars on Fire (W. Ward) on a day with high winds. 

#7 SWEET CRYSTAL has shown progression throughout her career and coming back under similar conditions in this second start off the layoff will look to pair wins. She showed natural early speed breaking her maiden here back in late October and made the lead after a slight RUSH coming off the layoff to win last month. She could use that early speed to a pace advantage with #4 DOWNTON TABBY another natural front runner, though one that is unproven coming into this race on the main track and sprinting. #9 BLAME TERI is also shown in Quad I though positioned as a Circle behind Sweet Crystal.

#3 MAYSTART comes into this race with the distance change though “buried” form on her side and should offer value off those “trips” along with the distance change. She turned in a BTL effort sprinting on March 30^th and based up that effort making a WIDE MOVE in the place finish in April. This will be her second start of this current form cycle and projects to IMPROVE off the July 9^th race.

#1 IGGY BIGS also shows up here with intent on the drop as she makes her second start off the layoff. She looked intended on July 12^th despite the time away and ran a credible B- OptixGRADE noting the scratches changed the dynamic of that race and forced her out of her preferred RunStyle. #2 BEG BORROW N STEAL also finds a similar drop to run at today’s $12.5k level. The class drop overall is a lateral move for her and as one that tends to run the same race each time with the right trip and field required for her to get the win.

#6 BALI BABY is the “wild card” in this race and was a “wild” animal on the track (MANIC) coming off the layoff on July 9^th. She was worked up from the paddock to the gate and translated in-running. She comes back today under similar class conditions, a positive distance change returning to a sprint and could even be intent for her in this second off with back numbers and class that fit on her best day. 

The pace should be honest in this spot as shipper 5-SISTER SAINT comes in from Indiana and should get a good stalking trip. The class relief will help as she should be closing quickly late. 2-MUD HUT is another with some tactical speed who should be in the mix on the drop. She races well at this level last fall and comes in off a snappy drill. 4-HEY MA figures to tuck in just behind the early pace. She chased last out and ran evenly while at a big price. This is her best distance as she may provide some value once again. 

Have to figure the ship from Kentucky has to come with some intent as 3-MIRUS has just been in a bit too tough in her four career starts. She ran a career best figure on the grass last out and with the easier company should be able to get into the race a bit more quickly in here. 6-JOYZELLA is overdue for her maiden score as she ran some solid races earlier in the meet. She tailed off a bit in her last couple but let's see if she wakes up with the bug rider in the saddle. 4-THEMISCHIEVOUSONE has speed and may look to try to clear in this spot. It wasn't a bad effort two back and let's see if she moves up with the return to the turf.

Looks like the amount of pace and the class drop should line up for 7-MEMPHIS PRAYER to run down the leaders late. His last two came in efforts that came off the grass. Centeno looks to be a good fit for this Hugo Rodriguez runner. Trainer Mike Durham has had past success at Hawthorne and comes in with multiple runners on this card. 5-READY REDDING has been competitive against a bit easier in recent starts but he has some races last fall where the speed figures are on par with this field. 2-POWERFUL MAN ran a much improved race last out with the switch to Felix in saddle. He has some tactical speed and is likely to sneak away at a bit of a price.

Really quick returns for some in here but that is expected as the meet starts to wind down. She's won two in a row off the layoff as 4-SAMARITA looks for her third straight. The distance suits as she appears to have some tactical speed while finding a spot where there's not a ton of early pace. 3-STOPSHOPPINGAMY is in for the tag as she drops out of a really tough race in her last. She has the most success of any at this distance and comes in fresher than some others in here. 9-LONG TALL WOMAN just missed last out as the five furlongs may have been too short for her. She loves this track and should likely sit back early and come running in the lane.

5-SIERRA HOTEL is about as game of a racehorse as they come. He seems to handle turf or dirt, sprints or routes. He's won twice at this distance and was a winner around two turns at this level two back. 2-FLY NIGHTLY steps up off the claim as he looks for his third straight victory. This is his best distance and he may get enough pace to chase. 3-COMMAND CENTRAL was the horse that made EDDIE O a rich man in the Hawthorne Invitational. He was able to cruise around on the front end to a score on June 25. In here it may not be as easy to make the top but he merits a look at a price off that last performance.

The class drop and amount of pace in this race may help the chances of 2-BEG BORROW N STEAL. She has run well on the meet while facing better but this could be enough to get her over the top. She's a good fit for Tavares as he finishes well. 9-BLAME TERI is another of the Mike Durham runners that could be overlooked in here. She has run well in her four starts on the year and has enough speed to tuck in just off the early pace. Let's see how she finishes in here. 7-SWEET CRYSTAL is likely to show speed in this spot as she looks to repeat her performance from last out. Felix was a good fit in that spot and gets the call once again.

Hard to separate 2-MUD HUT and 5-SISTER SAINT but think I’ll give Mud Island a slight edge, just because of familiarity with this racing surface. She has most often been running over her head but she has had three races at this level and finished second in all of them. Sister Saint could easily be favored and might deserve it. She’s dropping to meet her easiest field ever. But, don’t like the way her speed figures have been declining and her lone drill since her last start a month again was extremely slow. Makes her local debut. Might be vulnerable. 3-OPALINE might show competitive speed.

4-THEMISCHIEVOUSONE didn’t exactly impress in her lone turf race but she did lead much of the way, in a pretty tough field, prior to fading badly. Her last race was scheduled for turf but moved to dirt. Should be back on the weeds for this. The shorter distance might work in her favor.  3-MIRUS has never shown a thing, including in her lone turf race, but this is undoubtedly the easiest field she has ever met. She is bred to love the lawn. Might come alive in her local debut. 2-PACIFIC VIEW is in better form than any of her rivals. She’s trying turf for the first time but is bred for anything. She finished second in three of her five races, including last, her first turf race. Might be the first one home.

7-MEMPHIS PRAYER takes a much-needed class drop. Late runner should have more than enough pace ahead of him, especially with a few of his rivals stretching out. Can run them all down in the stretch. 3-VERRAZANOINTHESKY didn’t handle the turf or the better company in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but he’s back on the right surface and drops back to a better level for this race. He’s meeting many that have already gone through their conditions but he has simply been in too tough for most of his career. 6-RISKY BOY could be the best of the speed. Like that he hasn’t been fading in his sprints; he just hasn’t been fast enough to keep up. That shouldn’t be a problem with the stretch out.

3-STOPSHOPPINGAMY, if she runs her race, will be tough. She has been meeting tougher for most of the year. She won the last time she ran in a starter but today she’ll be racing for the tag. 9-LONG TALL WOMAN is the one to beat. Can’t remember the last time she had a bad race. She won only one of her seven this year but she did finish in the money in all of them. There isn’t a lot of pace to set up for her but she is sharp enough to do it all on her own. Not sure what to do with 1-BLOODY MARY MORNIN. She’s been so much better on turf that you have to wonder why she is entered in a dirt race. She did have two dirt wins early in her career, however, but this just doesn’t seem like the right spot for her.

4-RED FLAG ALERT looks like the best of these. He had had some success on the main track but turf is the name of his game. He’s had only one bad turf race in the past year and he finished in the money in the rest of them; mostly in second place. His previous two Hawthorne races were on dirt. Guessing his local turf debut will be a winning one. 2-FLY NIGHTLY moves up in class after winning his last two and getting claimed from his last. He’s one of two in this race that have been victorious on turf eight times. Wouldn’t surprise if he added to that total. 5-SIERRA HOTEL, the other eight-time turf winner, finished up the track in two of his last four turf races but he won the other two. His losses were in short sprints, his two wins were in two-turn races. Good speed will have him racing close to the pace. Could take over late.

9-SPECIALIZIN looks tough. She won her career debut and finished second in all three races since. She drew the outside post but has enough speed to clear the field quickly and never look back. Specializin does seem like the best of the speed but it’s possible that she’ll face more early pressure than expected and, if that happens, things could set up for a closer. Think 1-RAINY MOUNTAIN and 8-CANDY KICK are a couple of runners capable of surprising if a heated pace does develop. Rainy Mountain is an Illinois bred facing open company but she finished in the money in eight of nine races, often meeting open company. Candy Kick makes her first start of the year but she had a couple good drills in preparation. Can come from far back and finish with a full head of steam.

7-SWEET CRYSTAL wired the fields in her two local starts. She’s meeting better today but she is still the one they are going to have to catch. 2-BEG BORROW N STEAL could hold a class edge over the rest in here. This filly drops to meet her easiest field ever. She’ll have to run down the early speed but seems more than capable at this level. 10-TALKTOMEJUSTICE could play the role of upsetter. This mare turns back in distance after pressing the pace and finishing second in a swiftly-run route race in her local debut. Like that she raced evenly throughout. There is plenty of forward pace to set up for a late runner and she could fill that description admirably at this shorter distance.