Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 ELUSIVE PRINCESS ships in from overseas and takes up the class of the field role as a result. She has been competitive in the Group races she exits this season, all solid efforts in less than ideal trip, bringing a strong late kick to make her a major player in this race and the one to beat.

#5 ALLAMERICANBEAUTY has yet to show the same class level, though has a level of class to stack up with the local runners here. She was backed in her debut on the main track and took a big step forward breaking her maiden in the second start shifting to the turf at Gulfstream Park. Despite the 5^th place finish, she turned in a BTL effort in the Florida Oaks (G3) and again stepped forward showing class, grit, stamina clearing the N1X allowance condition in a strong Keenland field – quality type #11 STRIKINGLY SPUN coming back to win in her next start and followed up with an EX in the Belmont Oaks (G1) last month. ALLAMERICANBEAUTY will look to rebound from the Wonder Again stakes and looks to do so given a subtle trip used for positional speed, checked into the first turn, and chased closer to a fast pace than her previous starts. She returns today with a rider change to Velazquez as well as the blinkers which she has been working in coming into this race. 

#1 MORE THAN LOOKS is tough to knock as an improving type and coming off a strong B+ OptixGRADE to win the Manila(G3) last month. #2 BAT FLIP has yet to run a “bad” race that includes the debut that was excusable and one he has since improved from. He has shown progression race-to-race and this placement is assertive coming back off the bench right into graded stakes company. His workout times might not look like much on paper, though in those moves, he has been under a hold with a lot of the drill after the wire.

#6 GENERAL JIM is another seeking redemption faltering as a short price (possible regression off a new top 100 OptixFIG in the Pat Day Mile (G2)) in the Woody Stephens (G1) and will switch things up with a return to the turf. As far as the surface switch, he is a versatile type that brings his form and class to either surface and is proven over today’s innercourse breaking his maiden here last season. He should offer value in this race and possible drift from the 6-1 ML with the Euro shippers and the Brown group. #7 NAGIRROC also projects to be shorter in this race and while he has the Futurity (G3) win he has struggled to get the win in graded stakes company as a older horse and that opens the door for others on the win end.

Chad Brown will send out a trio in this race and as projected by the morning line, #10 CARL SPACKLER looks the “fancied” of the set despite the rider change as Jose Ortiz sticks with BAT FLIP in this race. He showed ability in his Gulfstream races and projected to step up and compete in graded stakes company and will have that opportunity here and redeem himself faltering in the American Turf (G3) as the favorite. 

#1 DISRUPTION has shown legit early speed and couple present intent for the connections showing up here at Saratoga second off the layoff. Her maiden win last October not only recorded the highest 91 OptixFIG in the field, but also did so overcoming the outside draw and racing close to a Very Fast early pace to suggest improvement off that juvenile form could have her as the “speed of the speed” in here.  

#8 BIG HAZEL repeats a form cycle pattern with the quick turnaround resulting in her win and top 85 OptixFIG breaking her maiden. That number stacks up strongly with others in this field and running back to that race makes her a contender. She was upgraded running X_BIAS behind today’s rival #7 TIMELY CONQUEST one that will return today giving up recency in this second career start. Outside of the Big Hazel, none of the others from that June 16^th race have come back to win.

#1 DETROIT CITY has legit early speed and finding class relief to run back in at the claiming level. He was in for the tag and under similar conditions last year in California, racing at a time when Sisterson was cold. Even as a capable type, the shorter price should be considered here as the barn also is looking, at the time of this analysis, for first success this meet.

#4 FOLIAGE fits this race as an individual and with intent cutting back to a sprint and racing for the claiming tag. He rallied from off the pace to win back on June at Belmont, though has shown he can stalk closer to the pace keying off the turf sprints in 2022. #9 ATHENRY also fits as a strong contender with his form coming into this race overall and upgraded racing against the profile and flow back in June at Belmont. As far as the 5.5f distance, this might not be his ideal, though both races at the distance here last year were against a higher statebred allowance group. #11 IGNITED will find a class shift landing on this circuit though has run competitive races at a similar level to suggest he can transfer his form into this race.

#8 HE’S GOT IT has buried turf sprint form that gives him a look as a longshot in this race. There looks to be intent for this meet as he makes his second start off the layoff in what looked to be a prep not asked for his best in the June layoff return, a scratch when the races came off the turf last month and picking up Prat here. 

#2 LORD FLINTSHIRE fits as a logical type proven at the distance, and with competitive races here at Saratoga under similar starter allowance conditioned events.

#10 JARREAU has been without a win since 2021, though in his defense he has been a consistent check earner and doing so at a higher allowance level and purse – including a solid place finish over this course and 12f distance last summer. His races on the turf and at the longer distance make him a factor in this race and the class change could suggest they are looking for the win. #3 SUERTE makes his first start for Maker off a private purchase and has had success over the years at this type of marathon distance. This gelding has early speed and project Franco to be assertive right from the start to try and take them as far as he can on the front end.

#6 SHINSUN has the benefit from the race FLOW in his races to date and come up just short in the process.  #9 UNLEASH THE POWER also returns from a flow-aided trip and place finish last month and will stretch out as well as factors to consider others in here if those one sticks as the favorite.

Any of the AE’s can be given a look should they draw in – most logical even a longshot case to #11 SKATE TO HEAVEN, one that up until the July 8^th race would not be eligible for this condition and turned in a sneaky effort his first on the turf.