Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 MARIA’S GIFT opened as the favorite on July 20^th and turned in a solid effort after the TROUBLE_S and racing behind pacesetting winner Couger on a day with high winds. #1 GHAALEB’S DREAMS also returns from that same common race last month and similar competitive effort with her own adversity in terms of trip. Intent looked in play with the class drop for that race and similar intent as they come back today with a slight change be removing the blinkers. #2 C C’S WORLD was behind that duo on the day, though a filly that tends to run an “every other” pattern should return to her top effort this afternoon.

The return from the 104-day layoff is the prime concern for #6 TWELVE RED ROSES. Class wise she has that on her side with some of the higher recorded numbers to compete at this level. The class drop moved her up on April 9^th with a solid B- effort and 67 OptixFIG on the day that puts her right back in the mix here.

#10 LAWMAKER is a logical type as an individual, though it will come down to trip for Santiago with the outside draw and today’s 8.5f distance, one that is not his ideal, though capable with the right trip in the right field, the type of scenario when he broke his maiden. #4 KINGBURRY ATTACK also needs the right scenario to win, he has shown all season competitive under today’s conditions recording B- OptixFIG at the level and showing run with WIDE trips in each of the three starts.

#2 STRIKE PRICE is a tough type to have a lot of confidence with as he is inconsistent except when it comes to finding TROUBLE – that form impacting his Plot position and shape. Today’s distance is his ideal and has plenty of form here this season including the race from May 18^th under similar conditions, running back to that race makes him a player. His other 8.5f turf race this season was over a yielding course, though tough to say it was the course as he was primarily overmatched against allowance company and again found TROUBLE in the race.

#3 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN is again a long, longshot to win the race though has a strong late kick as shown on OptixPLOT as the large Surface/Distance Square expected to run on late.

Of the recent maiden winners stepping up, #6 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY brings the most upside, though must improve whereas there is not much upside with #9 AQUACAT, one that has more established form. 

Giles projects to be more assertive today coming back with #3 UNGLUED. This will be their second start on the circuit and in for the $6250 claiming tag. Going back to the July 23^rd race, she made a POP out of the gate, breaking out on top then was rated back giving up position before making another late move to get into the race (four horse blanket for minors) behind class dropping, open length pacesetting chalk winner, Song of America. #5 TWICK OR TWEAT comes out of the same common race and part of that blanket finish alongside UNGLUED for the minors. She moves up in this event in terms of Plot position, shifting to Quad I/II whereas she was in Quad III/IV last month. Felix will also take over today, a rider that has had success in limited starts for Watkins.

Weir will send out a pair in this race and could be some intent for the duo. #1 HOLY STAR has shown natural early speed, though often with slower early fractions and still unable to keep up at the route distance. She will find class relief from her most recent starts, though had run at this condition earlier this season and seems like the right move to bring her back to this level and shorten up in the process. Stablemate, #4 SHE APPEALS HOLY has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and one that makes sense to run back in at the lower level, keeping in mind most of her races were overmatched against a higher maiden class. Those races were also prior to the 644-day layoff she returned from in June and still must show she has those races in her.

#2 EVIE JEAN is another that has recorded some of the higher numbers in the field and her most competitive races were recorded at today’s lower maiden claiming condition. A couple of those in her two more recent start and returning with Tavares after a TACTIC- TROUBLE trip on July 23^rd. With that said, the elephant in the room is the 0-25 race recorded making her tougher to trust on the win end, though could catch the right group on the right day.

First time starter #6 CUPID’S HOPE was scheduled to debut under similar conditions on June 15^th, though a vet scratch unable to make the race. Heading into that event, she posted a steady published worktab, though since that June scratch she shows just the one published work on July 16^th. 

#1 RIVZONAROLL has not shown much progression since his June debut last year and the class drop nearing the end of the meet makes sense for this horse and for the connections as well. He has legit early speed, early speed that he was unable to hold against the higher class of horse this season though should have his best chance to try and wire the field today. #4 SOVIET STANDARD and #6 SANTINO’S FANTASY also have shown early speed in their races; however they have not shown the same type of early speed as RIVZONAROLL.

#2 ROCKET HOTSHOT is another that has been seeking out class relief this season and will find it here. He will also find a distance change to a sprint; a distance he has been effective at though the type you have to hold your breath for as he makes that late run from well off the pace and often from off the tv screen.

#3 UNCLE NICK moved up on the class drop in his most recent starts and right back under similar conditions looking to build off the B- OptixGRADE place finish three weeks ago. #5 BEEEASY can also show early speed, though that trip is tough to predict as he has developed a bad habit of breaking slow and often finding trouble on recovery, the trip he had on July 4^th stumbling off rivals heels trying to establish position after breaking a step slow.

#7 TEA AFTER BALLET put in a solid CLOSE to finish third at this level on July 19^th at 78-1. He appears in the same Quad IV Circle position he was in that race, though as far as today’s OFR he finds a step up from the 77-69 OFR last month to the 80-72 today – tough to support on the win end and requires a top effort to show up for the minors. 

#3 CHRISTMAS PRESENT is not at his ideal distance here, though will swap the distance to find the right group to pick up the first win this year. He comes into this race in form for Cook and should be able to hold that form here. #2 GOLD BUCKLE returns today with class relief and in a reasonable spot to compete for his abilities. His prior connections of Amoss and Diodoro were able to find the top form for this horse though he has started to revert back to his old form before the Amoss claim last year. Haran picking this spot and reuniting with Centeno suggests some intent to compete rather than just run for the claim.

Tavares has been on the more effective riders aboard #4 PISTOL BOX as of late and could suggest intent he jumps back aboard in this spot and on the two week turnaround for Kirby. Trip and pace are key for him to have a chance with his late run. The pace does project to be fast and contentious with #1 BLURT on the rail looking to send under apprentice Walter Rodriguez and joined by #5 CAMARGO as he expects to return to his usual front running ways getting back on track from the June 24^th race when he stumbled (TROUBLE_S) at the start and was taken out of his RunStyle well before he had to check/TROUBLE late. #6 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE should also be gunning it right from the start that BOS trip caught the April win and the tough, tough beat getting caught late in a photo last month at Presque Isle.

#7 KRAMDEN could also show early speed today returning with the blinker addition and Bendezu in the saddle, keying off the tactics on June 21^st put to a HARD_LEAD and DUEL that day. They will also wheel back for this race on shorter rest and going back to the race last week, things did not appear right from KRAMDEN on the day as they struggled with a saddle adjustment nearing post time. 

Both #4 BLAME NELLIE and #5 TAR HEEL GIRL are logical contenders keying off races and efforts under similar race conditions to today. #4 BLAME NELLIE will make her third start off the layoff and back under similar conditions from the June 29^th BTL race making a WIDE MOVE into a Very Slow early pace. TAR HEEL GIRL has yet to run that “fast” race though has shown progress and ability since her debut and the time for her to show up with that top effort figures to be today.

TAR HEEL GIRL returns from the June 20^th race and part of the BLANKET finish that included #7 RARE ACTION ATTACK making a late inside move (SAVED CLOSE) to nearly pull off the 18.6-1 upset over the heavy chalk, Madelyn Belle for Catalano. With that race sitting on top of her past performances, she projects to be a shorter price today and that is a reservation with this mare as one that consistently breaks slow, the pattern of SLOG shown in the Past 3 Runlines and going back throughout her career. #9 BELPERRON also took a tough beat at the wire, though was slightly flattered by the Very Slow early race shape.

#8 CAT ROYALE also ran on July 20^th in a different turf sprint and on with a higher OFR to suggest she can transfer her form in with today’s group. She was a longshot on the day given the competitive nature of the race itself as well as making her first turf sprint start and stepping up to take on open company as well. #1 WILDWOOD POSSE makes those “first time” changes for this race though based on the visuals should be able to transfer her form to the TURF. #2 BALI BABY also projects to move up on the TURF and comes into this race with the progressive form on the quick turnaround. She lost her race before it started coming back off the layoff on July 9^th and should be fit off the contested DUEL last week. She requires a big effort, as this is a significant class rise. The same class rise is in play for #10 PRANCIPANTS along with the distance change; that distance change also in play for #6 SHE’S WANDAFUL one that comes from off the pace in her turf sprint races.

#3 SALLY’S SURPRISE is worth a mention in here as one that has started to find her form as of late. This is scheduled to be her first start on the turf, though has been entered for the grass and couple times and scratched as well as entered as an MTO back on August 8^th, 7.5f distance. 

#5 PLAUSIBLE DENILE looked well placed with the changes here on July 19^th. His trip was compromised getting crowed at the start (TROUBLE_S) and from out of position moved wide off the turn while the winner, Blow Torch saved ground to the wire. While the change in circuit, distance and surface were in his favor, perhaps the timing last month was not as ideal with the 10-day short rest. Further intent could be in play for PLAUSUBLE DENILE as DiVito also brings in #7 EASY FAST for this race, one that should be forwardly placed to allow the stablemate some pace to target.

#8 TWIRLING ROSES might not quite be back to his top form of late last year, though has form this season and “trips” coming back for this race. He had legit TROUBLE+ in a STRONG event here on May 18^th and left with a full EX -EXCUSE never given a chance to compete over the turf on May 31^st. He was given a freshening returning on July 9^th pairing a B- OptixGRADE and 83 OptixFIG at his shorter than ideal 5f distance.

#6 FEVER NATION could be getting really good right now and the connections are willing to find out shipping back to Hawthorne and taking the right in class as well. He showed dominant class setting a strong pace on July 11^th and grit holding off rivals while still running to the wire, a well deserved B+ OptixGRADE effort.

Class is again the big test for #3 DASH TO THE CASH and could again prove too big of a hurdle on the win end, though in form with a solid late kick, Large Quad IV Square, should be running on late picking up horses to get in the mix.

#4 TEE BURNS looked very well intended and backed by the public on July 26^th and claimed out of that race wheels right back protected here by Reavis. They have the challenge with the timing coming off a new top 86 OptixFIG on two weeks rest along with the step up in class.

Hernandez will try and improve on #2 CORTESE as he wheels right back for this second start for the barn and off the layoff. As far as the trip, he had some mild TROUBLE_S, though otherwise a favorable trip stalking the pacesetters and raced one paced (PLODDY) unable to improve position and doing just enough to hold. 

Looking at the pace for this race on OptixPLOT, the early pace looks Contentious with five runners to the left of the y-axis and the pace honest (54 SpeedRate) with more than half of the field above the ParLine. The scenario should set up those with stalking trips and Squares.

#10 CLEAR N CONVINCING fits that race shape and on his current form. This will be his second start back off the layoff returning under similar conditions from the competitive effort last month – even with the shoe repair that caused a slight delay to the race. He fits without a knock, though there are others in here with similar form/figures that project to be at higher odds.

#11 WHERE’D THE DAY GO returns to this circuit and upgraded from a BTL effort last month at Belterra Park, showing a sneaky run to finish in a blanket for minors and flattered by next out allowance winner, Authoritarian. #12 REMEMBER THE MAINE also pops on the Plot which is encouraging as he makes the distance change for this race. Going back through his form on OptixGRID, a BTL effort at this level at a mile distance on the turf from November 26^th stacks up for this race.

Form and trip is the prime concern for #4 DYNABLUE with the shift on the Plot, and similar though a slight downgrade for #2 FLYING SAMURAI on Standard. Trip also comes into play for #3 SON OF GRACE and #8 IOYA AGAIN sitting in Quad IV especially if those other rivals get the jump as they would be required to run them down late for the win. Both horses have consistent form at this level keying off the June 11^th common race with IOYA AGAIN recording a BTL effort with all sorts of TROUBLE behind race winner, SON OF GRACE.

Weather could be a factor for the Wednesday card but hopefully things hold out until later in the day. In here, 3-MARIA'S GIFT was good in a race here on July 20. She rated close and ran on last. With very little pace in this spot she may even inherit the lead and never look back. 1-GHAALEB'S DREAMS dropped to this level last out in her third start off the long layoff. She shouldn't be too far back as she searches to regain some of the form she had shown prior to heading to the bench. 6-TWELVE RED ROSES ran a couple of decent races at this level earlier in the meet but disappointed her backers as she was favored in both starts. She had little to no pace to chase in those spots and could be in a similar situation once again today.

Runners from the Childers barn have been solid in recent weeks as 4-KINGSBURY ATTACK should be sitting on a good performance as well. He has rallied late in his last four while on the turf and his best figure came at this distance. If everyone stays in, he should get enough pace to chase. 6-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was a good maiden winner last out and takes the logical step up in here. He picks up bug boy Rodriguez who has ridden this course very well.  With more pace upfront, he should be flying late. 5-BRODY'S FLY is worth a look at a price. His only turf start was a good effort and he may be able to tuck in just behind a contested pace and get the jump on the closers in the lane.

If it is ever going to be the day for a horse to finally win, this could be it for 2-EVIE JEAN. She's been the best she's ever been in her career this year. Her best races have come with Tavares in the saddle so everything looks to line up today. 1-HOLY STAR has speed and has also run some improved races on the year. She tried the turf last out, splitting the field but with the class drop and rail draw, her speed could make her tough. 5-TWICK OR TWEAT showed little in the meet but has gradually improved. She runs for the Watkins barn, which has had a great meet, as she will likely rate mid-pack early and look to run on in the lane.

The combination of class relief, rail draw and connections should be enough for 1-RIVZONAROLL to get the victory with these. He ran some solid races last fall and was good in his first start of the meet. His last two have been disappointing though as he makes the class plunge today. 7-TEA AFTER BALLET runs for a barn that has had a solid meet, often times with horses running well at big prices. He will need pace to chase, but he may get it in here as he figures to close well late. 2-ROCKET HOTSHOT also takes the big class drop as he turns back in distance. He has fared well while sprinting and is another that will rally late if the pace upfront is swift.

The recent races haven't been much, but they've also come against tougher company as 2-GOLD BUCKLE takes the class drop in here. He ran well earlier in the year at Oaklawn, with some of those efforts coming for this barn off the claim. With a couple in here with speed to the outside, he may be able to tuck in and look to get the jump at the top of the lane. 6-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE is one of those with speed as he is running well for his 10yo campaign. He isn't overly fast early but does know how to handle himself when up close and that's where he figures to rate today. 3-CHRISTMAS PRESENT should get a good stalking trip similar to what he found last out. He has just the one win over the track but has found the board in 10/18 Hawthorne starts as he figures to be a square price in this spot.

So much pace in this race that I'm not sure if anyone battling for the lead will be able to hang around late. Thinking 5-PLAUSIBLE DENILE gets a good stalking trip in here as he comes in off a troubled trip in his last. The switch to Hernandez in the saddle gives him a stronger finisher which is something he may need as the pace comes back to the field in the lane. 2-CORTESE is well spotted for Hernandez as another Kentucky high priced claim that looks to be a threat in Illinois. He chased last out before giving way but the addition of Lasix for this start may be a sign of what he dealt with late in that last race. If multiple horses battle for the early lead, a horse like 3-DASH TO THE CASH may be in a position to rally late once again. He was a good winner three back and held his own at this level in his last couple. You won't see much of him early, but he could be picking off horses in the lane.

Returning off a voided claim is 5-DRIVEN ONE for the Mason barn, which has been solid in recent weeks. He has speed and should be on or near the lead the entire way. He battled in his last, losing to a return winner and will be a threat on either turf or dirt. 10-CLEAR N CONVINCING is likely turf only as he comes off a good race from the layoff last out. He raced without a shoe in that spot after experiencing some paddock issues. With an uneventful lead up to the race today, he should be very tough. 11-WHERE'D THE DAY GO closed late in his last in one of his better efforts of the last couple of years. He will need some pace to chase as he runs for a barn that looks to have him ready off a brief layoff.

3-MARIA’S GIFT beat all but one in last when dropped to this level for the first time. In that race, she beat all but two members of this field and those two members didn’t run in that race. She’s not a standout but beat most of this crew once and might be able to do it again. 1-GHAALEB’S DREAMS also dropped to this level for last and showed some improvement but still finished a couple lengths behind Marie’s Gift. Takes blinkers off today. Maybe that will make a difference. 2-C C’S WORLD has been alternating good and bad races. She finished up the track in last but did win her previous start. Not sure there will be enough pace to set up for her late run but there might be.

6-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY has steadily improved. Graduate in last might be taking on winners for the first time but his improving form against what appears to be a weak field could carry the day. 10-LAWMAKER has had seven turf races and ran well in most of them. With good natural speed he figures to be on or close to the pace from the start. He beat top choice three races back. Might be able to do it again. 4-KINGSBURRY ATTACK has to be considered, if not to win at least in the vertical gimmicks. He has finished in the money in six of his 11 turf starts, though four of those finishes were for third place.

Not in love with any in here but think 3-UNGLUED is the quickest and that just might be enough. 1-HOLY STAR turns back in distance. He’s been displaying decent route speed lately and has been carrying his speed most of the way around. Could outlast the rest. 2-EVIE JEAN is certainly a threat. She finished third in six of 11 races this year. However, she’s making her 26^th start as a maiden. Can’t get excited about her chances.

1-RIVZONAROLL drops. Likely pacesetter has been fading against better rivals but he seems lengths quicker out of the gate and at this level, he should be able to hold off any early challengers while holding something in reserve for the finish. 2-ROCKET HOTSHOT drops sharply. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently but his speed figures in the not-too-distant past suggests he’s one of the fastest members of this field. Big improvement expected with the drop. 3-UNCLE NICK could face the same issue he had in last, running down the lone dropping speed, but he did make the race interesting in last with a late surge to finish second.  It’s remotely possible that a speed duel will develop, giving him a much better chance to surprise late. 

2-GOLD BUCKLE hasn’t beaten many lately but he’s dropping out of starter company and dropping to the lowest level of his career. Have to expect considerable improvement at this level. 6-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE seems most likely. However, he does like the lead and although he’s been able to sustain his speed under pressure, there appears to be a lot of speed to outlast. 5-CAMARGO could turn out to be the best of the speed. He threw in a clunker in last but won his previous two starts. Plus, he’s two for two on off tracks and the weatherman suggests rain is a possibility.

Interesting race. Many of these runners will finish fast but think there’s a good chance that 9-BELPERRON will get a fairly easy lead which could enable her to hold off those that try to overtake her late. Well-bred filly tired a bit late in last but she was making her first start of the year and she still managed to hold on for a narrow loss, losing only by a head. Could prove much tougher to catch today. 5-TAR HEEL GIRL, 7-RARE ACTION ATTACK and 6-SHE’S WANDAFUL are all likely to finish with a ton of run.

2-CORTESE needed last. He was making his first start of the year. Plus, there’s a chance that he bled since he’ll be running with first Lasix today. He could be the quickest of these and he’ll go off at an attractive price. Not sure that 8-TWIRLING ROSES is back in form but his last race was arguably his best race of the year. Would imagine that he’ll be tracking the early pace and can finish with a flourish. 5-PLAUSIBLE DENILE went off as the even money favorite in his local debut but only raced evenly and finished third. However, he was making his first start on this track and did have a couple traffic “incidents” that could have slowed him down. Deserves another chance.

Wide-open race. There is an abundance of speed so I’m looking for a late runner. Landed on 10-CLEAR AND CONVINCING. He barely lost last at this level, while making his first start of the year, and the winner of that race went on to win his next start. This runner gets a red-hot apprentice as pilot and an extra sixteenth mile to work with. Can fly by. 5-DRIVEN ONE, like top pick, finished second to Fly Nightly in last. He dueled for the lead throughout and came up just a half length short. Although he got claimed from that start, the claim was voided and he gets to run back for the same connections and at the same condition. Can take them this time. 3-SON OF GRACE might be ignored but he’s more than capable of surprising. In his last three turf claimers, he has two wins and a fourth, though less than a length back in a blanket photo. Don’t leave him out of the gimmicks. 1-COMMAND CENTRAL has speed and tenacity. He was narrowly beaten in a $20k turf claimer in last after wiring an allowance field in a turf allowance in his prior start.