Handicapper Tips & Picks

In a race with many lightly raced improving types, it is a bit unconventional to give the seven-year-old gelding, #8 DARK SOLUTION a look. He had a massive 637-day layoff coming back in June and has been looking to return to the turf this year. He will have that opportunity today to get back to his preferred surface and also find the class drop that should assist here as well. His early speed could also present an edge, with the theory he can still perform to his previous form and wants to race.

Of the Perez pair, #9 ARMAVIR has shown improvement race-to-race and could take another step forward on the TURF and at the MCL (DROP) level. Hernandez will be back aboard today and looking to improve his handling from the July 19^th TACTIC- trip. Stablemate #3 ICE VORTEX also has not had ideal trips (TACTIC-) in his races this season and looks to be intent with Bowen in to ride, a rider that has had success for Perez in the past.

Block will also send out a pair in this race and certainly capable with both runners showing up in this spot, though likely to see shorter prices on name recognition. #7 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS debuted at this level two months ago broke SLOG and overall not quite showing enough on the day to feel confident taking a shorter price in here. #1 DAPPER DUDE will make his debut and can make the case for a “new face” with a solid rider as Corrales is named, though there does not appear to be confidence on this one as he is a homebred, that has been gelded and racing first out for a tag.

A couple of others to keep on the radar: #5 INDIO GUAPO is on the “slower” side and must improve though to his credit he has moved forward with each start coming back from the layoff and has the positives here remaining on the turf and also dropping in for a tag. #4 ELECTRIC CHARGE is more established and likely to run his race, though has had chances at this level (and below) and come up short on the win end without excuse. Clay wheels right back with #6 PAPA GEEB one that should benefit from his debut, the class drop, and rider change though gives up a lot of experience to others in this field as he requires a big improvement to compete here. 

The effort from #2 ZING was incredibly strong to win the allowance two weeks ago at Belterra Park. Watching the race, my perception of that trip was not the "perfect" as suggested in the short comment; in the opening ¼ the horse looked to have an excuse after breaking slow and dropping over to save ground only to get stuck bottled up in TRAFFIC and forced to check (TROUBLE) a couple of times behind a slow pace/X_FLOW. The rider was able to move her to the outside and she made a sustained WIDE burst outside horses and then made another late move (TWO_MOVES) to take over the lead and draw clear to the wire earning a B+ OptixGRADE to win. She will be tested here to hold that form on the quick turnaround while taking a slight step up in class, returning to the main track and requires a top effort to win.

Distance wise, #3 COTTON CANDY ANNIE will be at her max today and requires a top effort and a new top to win this afternoon. She has upside making her third start this year and building off her numbers from last year as a juvenile. The connections had considered running her in the Indiana Oaks (G3) last month, a trainer scratch from that race and part of the reason for the recent layoff line. #4 WHITE LIES has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field, though most of those higher numbers were sprinting and could be bet off those races. 

The pace should be honest with #1 STOPSHOPPINGAMY wheeling back and dropping in class with the rail draw. She was very, very reluctant to go to the gate and something to watch for today. She should be joined early by #3 HALLIE’S RAINBOW shipping in from Fan Duel as well as #6 GETTIN DOWN another front running type coming off a LONE win and requiring position with the outside draw – even #5 NIFF at one point in her career had early speed.

The trip should set up for #4 PALAGO coming back from the 258-day layoff for this race. She fits on numbers, while giving up recency. She has some steady works and a live rider in Hernandez and could be overlooked off the recent running lines and for the connections, while coming in under the radar for this race. Hernandez was previously aboard #2 RANK AND FILE, another that should have the right pace setup for RunStyle. Class wise, she is in for a higher claiming tag today though in terms of race par this is a lateral move from her recent races this season. 

This is another race when looking at the OptixPLOT should have a contested, Sun Contention and honest (58 SpeedRate) early pace. That scenario should set up for #4 ON A TOUR stalking as a Large Square in Quad II/IV.

She has some “Squares” in front of her to run down with those runners showing a positional shift and shape from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. On Standard, #5 LINDALOUIMAGE is upgraded, and looking through her OptixNOTES from the route races last year and the legit TROUBLE on May 4^th, getting stepped on from behind, some excuses can be made and reasons for the Surface/Distance shift.  #6 BERTRADA also finds the Surface/Distance shift with limited recent route races and her most recent on the slop against a higher allowance class (DROP) playing a role in the shift.

#3 TIMELESS GLORY is a major Surface/Distance Plot upgrade and appears to have intent for this spot. She was entered in a $10k claiming race as a MTO on July 30^th and unable to get the surface switch lands here instead. The barn is capable with these type of runners off the claim and has sent out well-intended runners in a limited sample. That same consideration can be given to stablemate #2 CAIRO SUMMER, one that is overall softer on numbers requiring a big move forward to compete here with others including her stablemate. 

This is a competitive Special Weight event for the juveniles and with many capable runners (including some potential ability in the first time starters) could turn out to be a key race. Of the group with experience, #3 RICHIE’S GIRL is the one with the least amount of interest off the debut and one that give the connections could find wagering support. Prior to the July debut, she was entered in a $30k maiden claiming turf sprint at HS Indy and as far as the debut she was WASTED pre-race, raced RANK and GREEN, looking to need a lot of work and possible changes to see improvement. The barn will also send out #4 GO MARGIE GO, one that was entered in July 23^rd common race with Emigh named (lands on first time starter #5 DESPERATE TIMES) and as a vet scratch, clearly did not compete.

As far as the July 23^rd race, #2 SWEET SMILA comes back from a solid place finish and off the visuals should also benefit from that initial experience and looks competitive right back today. #7 SHE CAN SCAT was well-intended and with a rough trip from start-to-finish (see OptixNOTE in the Past 3 Runlines) projects to IMPROVE and followed. #8 REALISTIC GOAL also with a sneaky trip and GREEN, requiring experience could easily take a step forward. She made a positive appearance, PRERACE+ in the paddock and noted as she returns today.

Number wise, #1 DEVIL ran the higher 74 OptixFIG in her July 9^th debut, a competitive race behind a well-intended Dorothy Crowfoot making her debut an open length pacesetting win for Rivelli – RICHIE’S GAL common race. DEVIL made an honest effort, as did her stablemate Rumbrandt those two finishing side-by-side for place. DEVIL will have stablemate company in this race as well with Boyce sending out, #6 BEEHIVE to make her debut.  

The Romacaca Stakes is the way all stakes races should come up – contentious, competitive and form to assess as race other than just trying to seek out the “best” horse. Part of the competitive nature of this race is due to the projected race shape. The pace should be Contentious (Sun) and honest with the 50 SpeedRate. Those factors should make things tougher on the win end for the Quad I/II Circles: #1 FUENTE OVEJUNA, #2 MACADAMIA, #3 BEYOND PROPER, #4 TAKNTOTHECLEANERS, #7 WAVE OF GOODNESS, #9 SHE CAN’T SING and #10 BHOMA – a process of elimination on those runners to clear out some of the “noise” of this race.

#8 KATIE M’LADY is shown as a Quad I Square, though must deal with the Contention/SpeedRate as well as the step up in class to run against open company. Despite being the Quad I Square; she can be downgraded off her recent trips making the EASY_LEAD and LONE to win on May 31^st and FLOW aided win in the Indian Maid stakes taking advantage of the pace and main track.

Process of elimination has cut the field down to four contenders: #12 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD will also shift back to open company, though has run competitively against open company, and upgraded off some recent trips and appears intent with Corrales named to ride and the main reason he is in town. She should offer value in this race with all those factors in play and dismissed off how her running lines and finishing positions appear on paper. #11 PRINCESS THEOREM could present a class edge with graded stakes form and competitive in the listed stakes. It appears Walsh is looking for the right spot and a firm turf course noting a pair of scratches since the Galorette (G3) from stakes races with “good” and “yielding” turf course conditions.

#6 RUSSIAN MAFIA won this stakes race last year and will look to defend that title this afternoon. That win was her most recent win and while she has shown run at times, she has not had any clear excuses (the March 10^th BTL could be the exception) to not only not win though often finish off the board. Intent could be in play as Centeno takes over for the first time and has had success for this barn, though value is still required overall. #5 TIMELESS ROSE comes back to Hawthorne off the win and in form, though class wise this is a step up for her and she has come up short under similar type conditioned races, OFR with open company in the past on the win end. 

If #1 JOYZELLA has shown a little more interest in her most recent starts she would be a confident standout in this race. She has yet to run in statebred MSW company and the return to statebred company has been waiting for her for a long time, now questioning has it been too long. She fits in this race though not as strong as she would have in this group earlier on in the season.

#5 COMMISIONER GULCH has the shift from JOYZELLA as she shows up today with progressive and improving form. She appeared slightly “outclassed” again open company MSW last month and the shift to statebred and slightly lower OFR should be to her benefit. #8 LADY WHITE SOX recorded a 69 OptixFIG in her second start, the June 24^th race last year. She has yet to repeat that effort, though today with the barn and rider change might be the time she gets back to that effort.

#4 FREEDOM ATTACK has competitive races at this level, though has shown her ceiling and tough to find any race to date that makes her a strong contender. Those similar factors also in play for #6 GO ON GIRL sticking with the MSW level where she has been exposed in the past. #2 NO NAP NEEDED could jump up as the lone first time starter in this field for capable connections. She does have the “bullet” work from the gate leading up to this races, though her overall published work tab has some gaps. 

Following the “pace makes” the race pattern from many of the earlier turf races on the card, the finale is no exception. The pace should be contentious with seven of the ten runners in this field sharing the E/EP RunStyle and making up the Sun Contention and higher 60 SpeedRate. That scenario upgrades the Squares on the Plot and moves, #8 LAND MARK DEAL into contender status. He brings upside looking at his Past 3 Runlines OptixNOTES with positive Keywords (TURF, TROUBLE+) and the key class DROP returning from the July 26^th higher Optional Claiming event back to the right claiming level for his abilities.

The other Squares fit as alternatives with #5 REAL NEWS making his second start back off the layoff and should look for the front wrap removal. Vanden Berg has a “Square” pair with #2 IAN GLASS upgraded with today’s dynamic and return to 5.5f over #3 NEVER HAVE I EVER, one that should be engaged with #1 TIGHTROPE in a duel.  

Jockey Gerardo Corrales is poised to have a big day as he is in to ride this card. He's aboard 1-DAPPER DUDE in the opener as he debuts on the grass for the Block barn. The works have been consistent leading into this race and the breeding suggests two turns will be no issue. Let's see how he gets away from the inside and handles this bunch. 9-ARMAVIR is one of two Perez runners as he makes his second turf start. He settled back early in his last before showing some late run. With some more pace in this race, look for him to come running down the center of the lane late. 4-ELECTRIC CHARGE has been knocking on the door as he looks for his first career win. The Quinonez barn has had a good meet  and Lezcano has fit this horse well. He's another that just needs enough pace to chase early to get up late.

With the lack of pace in this race, 5-JOURNEYIST has the potential to sneak away early and never look back. She has run well in her last five, posting a good win in a race taken off the turf last out. She likes this track and should be able to catch a breather if she makes the top. 3-COTTON CANDY ANNIE was a good winner in Indiana two back and turns back to the dirt after a turf try in her last. She has enough speed to get into the race early but will likely be chasing Journeyist and looking to wear her down in the lane. 4-WHITE LIES held her own in the Indian Maid last out after that race came off the grass. She has some tactical speed and the only question here is if she has any distance limitations.

Fresh off the claim, it appears that 6-GETTIN DOWN looks to be the fastest to the front. She steps up to the next logical level off the win and picks up the 10 lbs. bug. Look for her to shake loose early and never look back. 1-STOPSHOPPINGAMY added Lasix prior to her last and comes off of it for this start. She ran a decent race in that spot, losing to a horse in fine form in Samarita. She should be chasing from the inside once again as the class plunge and quick turnaround may be part of a confidence builder. 4-PALAGO comes off the layoff as she has some back class as well. She has run decent races in the past over this track but has just three works toward the return and may need a start or two.

Pace makes the race as there appears to be enough speed for 4-ON A TOUR to close into in here. She has been solid over this Hawthorne strip throughout her career and may have not handled the slop well in her last. Let's see what she does with a fast track return. 7-KITTEN ROCKS ran a decent race on the grass last out  and finds things easier in here. She has enough tactical speed to rate close early but should be able to contend with Rocco in the saddle. 6-BERTRADA takes the class drop after facing a tough bunch last out. She was a good winner at this level two back while rating just off the pace as she's another that figures to welcome a fast track return.

A solid field of 2yo to kick off the late pick 4. Making her second start is 7-SHE CAN SCAT as she took a ton of action in her debut. She had quite the troubled trip in that spot but still had some run late. Would have to think that with clear sailing today she will be a major factor. 4-GO MARGIE GO debuts for Rivelli off three straight bullet drills. The concern here could be that she hasn't shown a work further that 3/8 so we will see where she is for stamina. 2-SWEET SMILA got bumped coming out of the gate in her debut but recovered to show good speed and run a solid second. She should be forwardly placed once again but may have company in here.

Taking a bit of a shot with the horse on debut as 2-NO NAP NEEDED gets Lasix for her first start. She is sired by a top Illinois sire in Three Hour Nap and comes in off a bullet drill. Let's see if she shows speed at first asking. 5-COMMISSIONER GULCH faced open company last our, running a solid third while at a big price and returns to state-bred runners in here. She has run third in all four career starts and is likely to rate mid-pack early and rally in the lane. 1-JOYZELLA is overdue for the maiden score but comes in looking to turn things around a bit off a string of poor starts. She figures to rate a bit off the early pace while sprinting and should close ground in the lane.

Tons of pace in here as things could set up for the closing move of 5-REAL NEWS. He ran a good race off the layoff last out and has every right to improve off that start. Don't be surprised if he is overlooked at the windows either with some of the other talent that it in here. 1-TIGHROPE is very fast and draws the inside as he is good on turf or dirt. He has run well over this track in the past and should be on the gas from the start. 3-NEVER HAVE I EVER also has speed as he is more of a turf specialist. He was in a bit tough in his last but runs into some other class droppers today.

2-PAINTSVILLE hasn’t exactly been a world beater, he is making his 17^th start as a maiden, but his last few turf races have been pretty good. He’s been training well toward his first start of the year. Might finally graduate. 8-DARK SOLUTION is worth another look. Ignore his recent dirt races. He has been far better on the lawn. Obviously, his best races were in 2021, before the long layoff, but think the move back to the weeds and the stretch in distance could be just what the doctor ordered. 4-ELECTRIC CHARGE finished in the money in two of his three turf races. He owned better speed in the past but he’s been coming from off the pace lately. However, not sure there will be enough pace to set up for that late run.

1-QUILTING PARTY is a slim pick in a race than any in here can win. It’s been six weeks since her last race, a win on the turf, but she has done well off similar layoffs. Especially like that she won three of four at the distance and finished second in the other. Can handle open company. 3-COTTON CANDY ANNIE figures prominently. She won the last three times she was entered in the right spots, ignoring turf and stakes races. Don’t know if there will be enough speed to set up for her late run but guess we’ll see. 2-ZING has often met better rivals. Results are mixed. She won her last on turf but her races in Louisiana and Kentucky against tough rivals suggest she could be better on the main track. 5-JOURNEYIST, 4-WHITE LIES and 6-RAINY MOUNTAIN might vie for the lead. 

1-STOPSHOPPINGAMY is one of those droppers that you don’t want to pick but can’t find a way not to. She’s been running well, without winning, against better rivals this year. Would seem likely to dominate this field at this level but they are dropping her a few levels for a reason. 6-GETTING DOWN rides a two-race win streak. This fast filly won those races easily. However, she was claimed from last and she’ll be taking on other speed runners at a tougher level. 4-PALAGO drops to make her 2023 debut. She won a starter here last year and crushed the field the last time she ran at the $6250 claiming price. Might need the start but might not.

6-BERTRADA was overmatched in last but held her own against that much tougher field. Drops back into claimers for this race. She won her previous two starts by daylight. Drops to a better level for this. Should get back on the winning track. 1-COUGAR was a popular wire to wire winner last time out and she’s been in competitive form for months, finishing out of the money only one time in her last 10 starts. She could face more early pressure than she’s used to in this spot but she really hasn’t shown much quit. Could be right there throughout. 3-TIMELESS GLORY is a versatile runner with the ability to run well on or off the pace. She’s another that has been in good form. Figures prominently.

6-BEEHIVE makes the first start of her career. She’s an Illinois bred facing open company which can be a challenge. But looking at her last drill, the :46.3 from the gate, one has to be impressed. That might be one of the quickest gate works that I have seen around here for a long time. It was second fastest of the day at the distance but most of those working weren’t leaving the gate. On top of that, she’s a 2yo outworking older company. Bears watching. 4-GO MARGIE GO is another first timer with great drills. All three of her works were bullets. It’s true all were at three furlongs but she only has to run five. 2-SWEET SMILA, another Illinois bred, was sharp in her career debut. She fought for the lead from the start and still managed to hang on for second. Could be far tougher with experience.

Great race without any real standouts, at least on paper. Going to give the edge to 11-PRINCESS THEOREM. Again, not a strong choice, but she’s been taking on some tough company lately and she just finished fourth in a Grade 3 “key” race with all three runners that beat her coming back to win their next starts. She’s listed as third highweight. Many of her rivals have had far more success but this could be her spot. 9-SHE CAN’T SING would normally be my top choice but losing that last over lesser company bothered me. She has been the most successful of these and she’s capable of winning no matter the pace, however. Might be vulnerable but could easily be the best of these. Always respect the speed on 8-KATIE M LADY. She has had nine turf races and won five of them while finishing second in the other four. This is probably the toughest field she has ever faced but she doesn’t know that. Will have to be caught.

1-JOYZELLA makes her 14^th start as a maiden but she’s been running over her head for many of those races. She’s turning back in distance, moving from turf to dirt, but most importantly going from open maidens into state breds. She’s had only two previous races against state breds and both were stakes and she ran well in both. 5-COMMISSIONER GULCH might be the one to beat. She finished third in all four of her races. She just ran third in open company. Her late move can take them. 2-NO NAP NEEDED is a first timer with decent drills coming into this race. Could be the best of the rest.

This looks like a race that any can win. But there is an abundance of speed so I searched for a runner capable of coming from off the pace.  Landed on 5-REAL NEWS. Likely longshot finished fourth in last but he was making his first start of the year. He was a good turf sprinter in the past. Owns enough speed to stay close but should have something left for the finish. 2-IAN GLASS is another that has shown some capacity to come on late, though he’s just as apt to try for the lead. 1-TIGHTROPE has speed and the rail. Never won on the lawn but he could be just a bit quicker than the rest. 

T 6 Ways N Means 3 Brutalizer 4 Vunderbar

P 3 Badditude 1 Hurrikane Msrodine 8 Sunset Soph

T 8 Grenville Heaven 1 Silver Bank 2 Northernchancellor

P 6 SHarky 9 Passionate Prince 2 Almost There Boss

T 6 Cool Ma Belle 1 Vanjie Blue Chip 3 Cold Snap

T 7 The Canam Banker 6 Charmbo Titan 1 Devils Kiss

T 2 Send it In Hanover 3 Royal Beluga 9 Top Mast

T 1 R No Mercy 2 Come On Stanley 3 Stormont Cheerio

P 3 Iceneedswhiskey 7 Cereal Killer 2 Dice R Out

P 9 Going Yard 1 Sheplaysforkeeps 7 Lyons Ladyluck

P 8 Dock Of The Bay 2 No Time At All 4 Abc