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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri August 11th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Colonial Downs Race 3

Post Time 1:48 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 ANZIO moves up returning to the maiden claiming level where she started off her career this season at Gulfstream Park. Following the debut effort, the connections made the circuit switch to keep her protected in Special Weight company, though still wanted to place here where she can compete. She projects to improve off her 5/6 HS Indy effort compromised by contact at the start/TROUBLE_S. She also projects to move up in today's field and dynamic given a strong Plot position, one that has has been most effective on the inner turf course this season. 

Colonial Downs Race 5

Post Time 2:56 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The similar Plot position upgrade is given to #5 SCANNO returning from the long 313-day layoff for Stidham, trading Plot position for recency as an edge over #7 WICKED FINN. The Plot position also upgrades #3 SEVEN CHANNELS one that based on the morning line sits at long odds to keep on the radar. 

Colonial Downs Race 7

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Following the same Plot pattern, #8 SATISFIED comes back from a rough trip and legit TROUBLE+ and solid GALLOP+ to suggest he can move forward today and compete under similar conditions. #2 C C'S FREEDOM and #6 HIGH FASHION lady also carry Plot positions in their favor for this profile. 

Del Mar Race 6

Post Time 8:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Both #1 REFOCUS and #5 SMOKEM EZ were dominant (B+) in their debut win and given an edge over other recent maiden winners. #8 WILD JEWELS returns from a place finish in a stakes at Pleasanton, though overall visuals (TURF, DROP) still question their ability at this level. 

#3 LAST CALL LONDON earned a big follow coming out of that same stakes event with the BTL effort given significant TROUBLES+ early on and made a CLOSE to earn the same B- OptixGRADE as WILD JEWELS, though LAST CALL LONDON upgraded visually and projects to IMPROVE off that effort. #4 SHADY APPEAL also returns from that event and coming up short as the favorite without much excuse. The excuses were self-inflicted if anything restless in the GATE and hopped at the start (SLOG) unable to hold or improve along inside/SAVED after. 

Del Mar Race 7

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 DOLLY MAY has not been a consistent type, though given a follow returning here from a BTL effort making a MOVE through TRAFFIC on July 30th. #5 ABHITA also hold upside in this spot with the added ground/STRETCH coming back from the two month break. 

Del Mar Race 8

Post Time 9:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Morning line favorite, #6 L L L COOL (no J) is fine in this spot, though does not hold any strong edge over others to present strong at a shorter price. 

#4 LEN'S LUCK could be overlooked given the connections despite turning in a BTL race under similar conditions last month. To his outside #5 ICE STORM recorded the lone B OptixGRADE in this field on June 9th and given a WARM_UP and SLOG on July 22nd could move forward here from those negative impact factors. #9 ALL THE KING'S MEN also returning from that common race with a WIDE earning the same B- OptixGRADE as LEN'S LUCK.

#12 FINDING LOVE will also need to find racing luck to draw in and overcome the post position though should benefit from the added ground (ROUTER) and class relief from his races this season to move him up under these race conditions. 

Ellis Park Race 8

Post Time 3:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The race shape looks fast (58 SpeedRate) and contentious (Sun), factors that play against #3 FLASHY GEM as the morning line favorite. As an individual, she has ability though this is a tough spot given her RunStyle in today's race shape coming back from the 51-day layoff and in her first start against older. Of the pacesetters, #7 SHE'S GONE looks to have the edge with her overall ability and aided with the draw, positioned outside of the other speed. 

#6 MANUKA should benefit from the race shape and with pace to close into. She will make just her second local start and upgraded from the WIDE trip on May 18th. The race a common race with SHE'S GONE and the two going off at around the same 7-2 odds co-favored with MANUKA bet down from the 10-1 morning line that day with SHE'S GONE listed as the lukewarm 5-1 morning line favorite.  

#1 MUSIC STREET will make her grass debut here though in terms of numbers and class she stacks up at this level and holding her form and RunStyle is another in here to benefit from a fast early race shape. 

Woodbine Race 6

Post Time 2:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Value is required with #6 SEA SCOUT as he has the habit of SLOG and that tends to impact his race and trip. With that said, he has shown run at the level in his races this season and projects to IMPROVE off the July 21st effort. 

Woodbine Race 7

Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

There is a scenario for #6 J P HELLISH to get out in front and take this field gate-to-wire. He will give up some recency and while he has the early pace advantage, he does not have as much in terms of finishing ability. #5 FULL EXTREME is on the opposite end of the pace spectrum and will look to use his class edge on the drop to overcome the pace.

As far as the class drop, #2 EMBRACE MY UNCLE also finds class relief here and should move up under today's conditions and from the trips this year. He does prefer the TURF though can compete with his current form and figures on the Tapeta. The similar can be said in terms of Surface for #8 SALVATOR MUNDI, another that should find his way back to a competitive effort with the class change and return to claiming company. 


Woodbine Race 8

Post Time 3:49 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 SAILOR'S PASSION returns under similar conditions to the place finish on July 13th. His form should continue to hold and even move forward with the conditioning this year and shift to the TURF - and even this inner turf course where he was competitive and paired wins last season.