Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 MARIA’S GIFT opened as the favorite on July 20^th and turned in a solid effort after the TROUBLE_S and racing behind pacesetting winner Couger on a day with high winds. #1 GHAALEB’S DREAMS also returns from that same common race last month and similar competitive effort with her own adversity in terms of trip. Intent looked in play with the class drop for that race and similar intent as they come back today with a slight change be removing the blinkers. #2 C C’S WORLD was behind that duo on the day, though a filly that tends to run an “every other” pattern should return to her top effort this afternoon.

The return from the 104-day layoff is the prime concern for #6 TWELVE RED ROSES. Class wise she has that on her side with some of the higher recorded numbers to compete at this level. The class drop moved her up on April 9^th with a solid B- effort and 67 OptixFIG on the day that puts her right back in the mix here.

#10 LAWMAKER is a logical type as an individual, though it will come down to trip for Santiago with the outside draw and today’s 8.5f distance, one that is not his ideal, though capable with the right trip in the right field, the type of scenario when he broke his maiden. #4 KINGBURRY ATTACK also needs the right scenario to win, he has shown all season competitive under today’s conditions recording B- OptixFIG at the level and showing run with WIDE trips in each of the three starts.

#2 STRIKE PRICE is a tough type to have a lot of confidence with as he is inconsistent except when it comes to finding TROUBLE – that form impacting his Plot position and shape. Today’s distance is his ideal and has plenty of form here this season including the race from May 18^th under similar conditions, running back to that race makes him a player. His other 8.5f turf race this season was over a yielding course, though tough to say it was the course as he was primarily overmatched against allowance company and again found TROUBLE in the race.

#3 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN is again a long, longshot to win the race though has a strong late kick as shown on OptixPLOT as the large Surface/Distance Square expected to run on late.

Of the recent maiden winners stepping up, #6 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY brings the most upside, though must improve whereas there is not much upside with #9 AQUACAT, one that has more established form. 

Giles projects to be more assertive today coming back with #3 UNGLUED. This will be their second start on the circuit and in for the $6250 claiming tag. Going back to the July 23^rd race, she made a POP out of the gate, breaking out on top then was rated back giving up position before making another late move to get into the race (four horse blanket for minors) behind class dropping, open length pacesetting chalk winner, Song of America. #5 TWICK OR TWEAT comes out of the same common race and part of that blanket finish alongside UNGLUED for the minors. She moves up in this event in terms of Plot position, shifting to Quad I/II whereas she was in Quad III/IV last month. Felix will also take over today, a rider that has had success in limited starts for Watkins.

Weir will send out a pair in this race and could be some intent for the duo. #1 HOLY STAR has shown natural early speed, though often with slower early fractions and still unable to keep up at the route distance. She will find class relief from her most recent starts, though had run at this condition earlier this season and seems like the right move to bring her back to this level and shorten up in the process. Stablemate, #4 SHE APPEALS HOLY has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and one that makes sense to run back in at the lower level, keeping in mind most of her races were overmatched against a higher maiden class. Those races were also prior to the 644-day layoff she returned from in June and still must show she has those races in her.

#2 EVIE JEAN is another that has recorded some of the higher numbers in the field and her most competitive races were recorded at today’s lower maiden claiming condition. A couple of those in her two more recent start and returning with Tavares after a TACTIC- TROUBLE trip on July 23^rd. With that said, the elephant in the room is the 0-25 race recorded making her tougher to trust on the win end, though could catch the right group on the right day.

First time starter #6 CUPID’S HOPE was scheduled to debut under similar conditions on June 15^th, though a vet scratch unable to make the race. Heading into that event, she posted a steady published worktab, though since that June scratch she shows just the one published work on July 16^th. 

#1 RIVZONAROLL has not shown much progression since his June debut last year and the class drop nearing the end of the meet makes sense for this horse and for the connections as well. He has legit early speed, early speed that he was unable to hold against the higher class of horse this season though should have his best chance to try and wire the field today. #4 SOVIET STANDARD and #6 SANTINO’S FANTASY also have shown early speed in their races; however they have not shown the same type of early speed as RIVZONAROLL.

#2 ROCKET HOTSHOT is another that has been seeking out class relief this season and will find it here. He will also find a distance change to a sprint; a distance he has been effective at though the type you have to hold your breath for as he makes that late run from well off the pace and often from off the tv screen.

#3 UNCLE NICK moved up on the class drop in his most recent starts and right back under similar conditions looking to build off the B- OptixGRADE place finish three weeks ago. #5 BEEEASY can also show early speed, though that trip is tough to predict as he has developed a bad habit of breaking slow and often finding trouble on recovery, the trip he had on July 4^th stumbling off rivals heels trying to establish position after breaking a step slow.

#7 TEA AFTER BALLET put in a solid CLOSE to finish third at this level on July 19^th at 78-1. He appears in the same Quad IV Circle position he was in that race, though as far as today’s OFR he finds a step up from the 77-69 OFR last month to the 80-72 today – tough to support on the win end and requires a top effort to show up for the minors. 

#3 CHRISTMAS PRESENT is not at his ideal distance here, though will swap the distance to find the right group to pick up the first win this year. He comes into this race in form for Cook and should be able to hold that form here. #2 GOLD BUCKLE returns today with class relief and in a reasonable spot to compete for his abilities. His prior connections of Amoss and Diodoro were able to find the top form for this horse though he has started to revert back to his old form before the Amoss claim last year. Haran picking this spot and reuniting with Centeno suggests some intent to compete rather than just run for the claim.

Tavares has been on the more effective riders aboard #4 PISTOL BOX as of late and could suggest intent he jumps back aboard in this spot and on the two week turnaround for Kirby. Trip and pace are key for him to have a chance with his late run. The pace does project to be fast and contentious with #1 BLURT on the rail looking to send under apprentice Walter Rodriguez and joined by #5 CAMARGO as he expects to return to his usual front running ways getting back on track from the June 24^th race when he stumbled (TROUBLE_S) at the start and was taken out of his RunStyle well before he had to check/TROUBLE late. #6 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE should also be gunning it right from the start that BOS trip caught the April win and the tough, tough beat getting caught late in a photo last month at Presque Isle.

#7 KRAMDEN could also show early speed today returning with the blinker addition and Bendezu in the saddle, keying off the tactics on June 21^st put to a HARD_LEAD and DUEL that day. They will also wheel back for this race on shorter rest and going back to the race last week, things did not appear right from KRAMDEN on the day as they struggled with a saddle adjustment nearing post time. 

Both #4 BLAME NELLIE and #5 TAR HEEL GIRL are logical contenders keying off races and efforts under similar race conditions to today. #4 BLAME NELLIE will make her third start off the layoff and back under similar conditions from the June 29^th BTL race making a WIDE MOVE into a Very Slow early pace. TAR HEEL GIRL has yet to run that “fast” race though has shown progress and ability since her debut and the time for her to show up with that top effort figures to be today.

TAR HEEL GIRL returns from the June 20^th race and part of the BLANKET finish that included #7 RARE ACTION ATTACK making a late inside move (SAVED CLOSE) to nearly pull off the 18.6-1 upset over the heavy chalk, Madelyn Belle for Catalano. With that race sitting on top of her past performances, she projects to be a shorter price today and that is a reservation with this mare as one that consistently breaks slow, the pattern of SLOG shown in the Past 3 Runlines and going back throughout her career. #9 BELPERRON also took a tough beat at the wire, though was slightly flattered by the Very Slow early race shape.

#8 CAT ROYALE also ran on July 20^th in a different turf sprint and on with a higher OFR to suggest she can transfer her form in with today’s group. She was a longshot on the day given the competitive nature of the race itself as well as making her first turf sprint start and stepping up to take on open company as well. #1 WILDWOOD POSSE makes those “first time” changes for this race though based on the visuals should be able to transfer her form to the TURF. #2 BALI BABY also projects to move up on the TURF and comes into this race with the progressive form on the quick turnaround. She lost her race before it started coming back off the layoff on July 9^th and should be fit off the contested DUEL last week. She requires a big effort, as this is a significant class rise. The same class rise is in play for #10 PRANCIPANTS along with the distance change; that distance change also in play for #6 SHE’S WANDAFUL one that comes from off the pace in her turf sprint races.

#3 SALLY’S SURPRISE is worth a mention in here as one that has started to find her form as of late. This is scheduled to be her first start on the turf, though has been entered for the grass and couple times and scratched as well as entered as an MTO back on August 8^th, 7.5f distance. 

#5 PLAUSIBLE DENILE looked well placed with the changes here on July 19^th. His trip was compromised getting crowed at the start (TROUBLE_S) and from out of position moved wide off the turn while the winner, Blow Torch saved ground to the wire. While the change in circuit, distance and surface were in his favor, perhaps the timing last month was not as ideal with the 10-day short rest. Further intent could be in play for PLAUSUBLE DENILE as DiVito also brings in #7 EASY FAST for this race, one that should be forwardly placed to allow the stablemate some pace to target.

#8 TWIRLING ROSES might not quite be back to his top form of late last year, though has form this season and “trips” coming back for this race. He had legit TROUBLE+ in a STRONG event here on May 18^th and left with a full EX -EXCUSE never given a chance to compete over the turf on May 31^st. He was given a freshening returning on July 9^th pairing a B- OptixGRADE and 83 OptixFIG at his shorter than ideal 5f distance.

#6 FEVER NATION could be getting really good right now and the connections are willing to find out shipping back to Hawthorne and taking the right in class as well. He showed dominant class setting a strong pace on July 11^th and grit holding off rivals while still running to the wire, a well deserved B+ OptixGRADE effort.

Class is again the big test for #3 DASH TO THE CASH and could again prove too big of a hurdle on the win end, though in form with a solid late kick, Large Quad IV Square, should be running on late picking up horses to get in the mix.

#4 TEE BURNS looked very well intended and backed by the public on July 26^th and claimed out of that race wheels right back protected here by Reavis. They have the challenge with the timing coming off a new top 86 OptixFIG on two weeks rest along with the step up in class.

Hernandez will try and improve on #2 CORTESE as he wheels right back for this second start for the barn and off the layoff. As far as the trip, he had some mild TROUBLE_S, though otherwise a favorable trip stalking the pacesetters and raced one paced (PLODDY) unable to improve position and doing just enough to hold. 

Looking at the pace for this race on OptixPLOT, the early pace looks Contentious with five runners to the left of the y-axis and the pace honest (54 SpeedRate) with more than half of the field above the ParLine. The scenario should set up those with stalking trips and Squares.

#10 CLEAR N CONVINCING fits that race shape and on his current form. This will be his second start back off the layoff returning under similar conditions from the competitive effort last month – even with the shoe repair that caused a slight delay to the race. He fits without a knock, though there are others in here with similar form/figures that project to be at higher odds.

#11 WHERE’D THE DAY GO returns to this circuit and upgraded from a BTL effort last month at Belterra Park, showing a sneaky run to finish in a blanket for minors and flattered by next out allowance winner, Authoritarian. #12 REMEMBER THE MAINE also pops on the Plot which is encouraging as he makes the distance change for this race. Going back through his form on OptixGRID, a BTL effort at this level at a mile distance on the turf from November 26^th stacks up for this race.

Form and trip is the prime concern for #4 DYNABLUE with the shift on the Plot, and similar though a slight downgrade for #2 FLYING SAMURAI on Standard. Trip also comes into play for #3 SON OF GRACE and #8 IOYA AGAIN sitting in Quad IV especially if those other rivals get the jump as they would be required to run them down late for the win. Both horses have consistent form at this level keying off the June 11^th common race with IOYA AGAIN recording a BTL effort with all sorts of TROUBLE behind race winner, SON OF GRACE.