Handicapper Tips & Picks

In a race with many lightly raced improving types, it is a bit unconventional to give the seven-year-old gelding, #8 DARK SOLUTION a look. He had a massive 637-day layoff coming back in June and has been looking to return to the turf this year. He will have that opportunity today to get back to his preferred surface and also find the class drop that should assist here as well. His early speed could also present an edge, with the theory he can still perform to his previous form and wants to race.

Of the Perez pair, #9 ARMAVIR has shown improvement race-to-race and could take another step forward on the TURF and at the MCL (DROP) level. Hernandez will be back aboard today and looking to improve his handling from the July 19^th TACTIC- trip. Stablemate #3 ICE VORTEX also has not had ideal trips (TACTIC-) in his races this season and looks to be intent with Bowen in to ride, a rider that has had success for Perez in the past.

Block will also send out a pair in this race and certainly capable with both runners showing up in this spot, though likely to see shorter prices on name recognition. #7 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS debuted at this level two months ago broke SLOG and overall not quite showing enough on the day to feel confident taking a shorter price in here. #1 DAPPER DUDE will make his debut and can make the case for a “new face” with a solid rider as Corrales is named, though there does not appear to be confidence on this one as he is a homebred, that has been gelded and racing first out for a tag.

A couple of others to keep on the radar: #5 INDIO GUAPO is on the “slower” side and must improve though to his credit he has moved forward with each start coming back from the layoff and has the positives here remaining on the turf and also dropping in for a tag. #4 ELECTRIC CHARGE is more established and likely to run his race, though has had chances at this level (and below) and come up short on the win end without excuse. Clay wheels right back with #6 PAPA GEEB one that should benefit from his debut, the class drop, and rider change though gives up a lot of experience to others in this field as he requires a big improvement to compete here. 

The effort from #2 ZING was incredibly strong to win the allowance two weeks ago at Belterra Park. Watching the race, my perception of that trip was not the "perfect" as suggested in the short comment; in the opening ¼ the horse looked to have an excuse after breaking slow and dropping over to save ground only to get stuck bottled up in TRAFFIC and forced to check (TROUBLE) a couple of times behind a slow pace/X_FLOW. The rider was able to move her to the outside and she made a sustained WIDE burst outside horses and then made another late move (TWO_MOVES) to take over the lead and draw clear to the wire earning a B+ OptixGRADE to win. She will be tested here to hold that form on the quick turnaround while taking a slight step up in class, returning to the main track and requires a top effort to win.

Distance wise, #3 COTTON CANDY ANNIE will be at her max today and requires a top effort and a new top to win this afternoon. She has upside making her third start this year and building off her numbers from last year as a juvenile. The connections had considered running her in the Indiana Oaks (G3) last month, a trainer scratch from that race and part of the reason for the recent layoff line. #4 WHITE LIES has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field, though most of those higher numbers were sprinting and could be bet off those races. 

The pace should be honest with #1 STOPSHOPPINGAMY wheeling back and dropping in class with the rail draw. She was very, very reluctant to go to the gate and something to watch for today. She should be joined early by #3 HALLIE’S RAINBOW shipping in from Fan Duel as well as #6 GETTIN DOWN another front running type coming off a LONE win and requiring position with the outside draw – even #5 NIFF at one point in her career had early speed.

The trip should set up for #4 PALAGO coming back from the 258-day layoff for this race. She fits on numbers, while giving up recency. She has some steady works and a live rider in Hernandez and could be overlooked off the recent running lines and for the connections, while coming in under the radar for this race. Hernandez was previously aboard #2 RANK AND FILE, another that should have the right pace setup for RunStyle. Class wise, she is in for a higher claiming tag today though in terms of race par this is a lateral move from her recent races this season. 

This is another race when looking at the OptixPLOT should have a contested, Sun Contention and honest (58 SpeedRate) early pace. That scenario should set up for #4 ON A TOUR stalking as a Large Square in Quad II/IV.

She has some “Squares” in front of her to run down with those runners showing a positional shift and shape from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. On Standard, #5 LINDALOUIMAGE is upgraded, and looking through her OptixNOTES from the route races last year and the legit TROUBLE on May 4^th, getting stepped on from behind, some excuses can be made and reasons for the Surface/Distance shift.  #6 BERTRADA also finds the Surface/Distance shift with limited recent route races and her most recent on the slop against a higher allowance class (DROP) playing a role in the shift.

#3 TIMELESS GLORY is a major Surface/Distance Plot upgrade and appears to have intent for this spot. She was entered in a $10k claiming race as a MTO on July 30^th and unable to get the surface switch lands here instead. The barn is capable with these type of runners off the claim and has sent out well-intended runners in a limited sample. That same consideration can be given to stablemate #2 CAIRO SUMMER, one that is overall softer on numbers requiring a big move forward to compete here with others including her stablemate. 

This is a competitive Special Weight event for the juveniles and with many capable runners (including some potential ability in the first time starters) could turn out to be a key race. Of the group with experience, #3 RICHIE’S GIRL is the one with the least amount of interest off the debut and one that give the connections could find wagering support. Prior to the July debut, she was entered in a $30k maiden claiming turf sprint at HS Indy and as far as the debut she was WASTED pre-race, raced RANK and GREEN, looking to need a lot of work and possible changes to see improvement. The barn will also send out #4 GO MARGIE GO, one that was entered in July 23^rd common race with Emigh named (lands on first time starter #5 DESPERATE TIMES) and as a vet scratch, clearly did not compete.

As far as the July 23^rd race, #2 SWEET SMILA comes back from a solid place finish and off the visuals should also benefit from that initial experience and looks competitive right back today. #7 SHE CAN SCAT was well-intended and with a rough trip from start-to-finish (see OptixNOTE in the Past 3 Runlines) projects to IMPROVE and followed. #8 REALISTIC GOAL also with a sneaky trip and GREEN, requiring experience could easily take a step forward. She made a positive appearance, PRERACE+ in the paddock and noted as she returns today.

Number wise, #1 DEVIL ran the higher 74 OptixFIG in her July 9^th debut, a competitive race behind a well-intended Dorothy Crowfoot making her debut an open length pacesetting win for Rivelli – RICHIE’S GAL common race. DEVIL made an honest effort, as did her stablemate Rumbrandt those two finishing side-by-side for place. DEVIL will have stablemate company in this race as well with Boyce sending out, #6 BEEHIVE to make her debut.  

The Romacaca Stakes is the way all stakes races should come up – contentious, competitive and form to assess as race other than just trying to seek out the “best” horse. Part of the competitive nature of this race is due to the projected race shape. The pace should be Contentious (Sun) and honest with the 50 SpeedRate. Those factors should make things tougher on the win end for the Quad I/II Circles: #1 FUENTE OVEJUNA, #2 MACADAMIA, #3 BEYOND PROPER, #4 TAKNTOTHECLEANERS, #7 WAVE OF GOODNESS, #9 SHE CAN’T SING and #10 BHOMA – a process of elimination on those runners to clear out some of the “noise” of this race.

#8 KATIE M’LADY is shown as a Quad I Square, though must deal with the Contention/SpeedRate as well as the step up in class to run against open company. Despite being the Quad I Square; she can be downgraded off her recent trips making the EASY_LEAD and LONE to win on May 31^st and FLOW aided win in the Indian Maid stakes taking advantage of the pace and main track.

Process of elimination has cut the field down to four contenders: #12 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD will also shift back to open company, though has run competitively against open company, and upgraded off some recent trips and appears intent with Corrales named to ride and the main reason he is in town. She should offer value in this race with all those factors in play and dismissed off how her running lines and finishing positions appear on paper. #11 PRINCESS THEOREM could present a class edge with graded stakes form and competitive in the listed stakes. It appears Walsh is looking for the right spot and a firm turf course noting a pair of scratches since the Galorette (G3) from stakes races with “good” and “yielding” turf course conditions.

#6 RUSSIAN MAFIA won this stakes race last year and will look to defend that title this afternoon. That win was her most recent win and while she has shown run at times, she has not had any clear excuses (the March 10^th BTL could be the exception) to not only not win though often finish off the board. Intent could be in play as Centeno takes over for the first time and has had success for this barn, though value is still required overall. #5 TIMELESS ROSE comes back to Hawthorne off the win and in form, though class wise this is a step up for her and she has come up short under similar type conditioned races, OFR with open company in the past on the win end. 

If #1 JOYZELLA has shown a little more interest in her most recent starts she would be a confident standout in this race. She has yet to run in statebred MSW company and the return to statebred company has been waiting for her for a long time, now questioning has it been too long. She fits in this race though not as strong as she would have in this group earlier on in the season.

#5 COMMISIONER GULCH has the shift from JOYZELLA as she shows up today with progressive and improving form. She appeared slightly “outclassed” again open company MSW last month and the shift to statebred and slightly lower OFR should be to her benefit. #8 LADY WHITE SOX recorded a 69 OptixFIG in her second start, the June 24^th race last year. She has yet to repeat that effort, though today with the barn and rider change might be the time she gets back to that effort.

#4 FREEDOM ATTACK has competitive races at this level, though has shown her ceiling and tough to find any race to date that makes her a strong contender. Those similar factors also in play for #6 GO ON GIRL sticking with the MSW level where she has been exposed in the past. #2 NO NAP NEEDED could jump up as the lone first time starter in this field for capable connections. She does have the “bullet” work from the gate leading up to this races, though her overall published work tab has some gaps. 

Following the “pace makes” the race pattern from many of the earlier turf races on the card, the finale is no exception. The pace should be contentious with seven of the ten runners in this field sharing the E/EP RunStyle and making up the Sun Contention and higher 60 SpeedRate. That scenario upgrades the Squares on the Plot and moves, #8 LAND MARK DEAL into contender status. He brings upside looking at his Past 3 Runlines OptixNOTES with positive Keywords (TURF, TROUBLE+) and the key class DROP returning from the July 26^th higher Optional Claiming event back to the right claiming level for his abilities.

The other Squares fit as alternatives with #5 REAL NEWS making his second start back off the layoff and should look for the front wrap removal. Vanden Berg has a “Square” pair with #2 IAN GLASS upgraded with today’s dynamic and return to 5.5f over #3 NEVER HAVE I EVER, one that should be engaged with #1 TIGHTROPE in a duel.