Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a competitive Special Weight event with a mix of new faces to contest others that have had some “trips” here this season. Starting with the local group and a pair that ran in a competitive race here on June 8^th earning solid figures: #2 MONEY AGENT made his local debut in that race making a positive PRERACE+ appearance and showing run despite likely needing the start. He returned in the Hawthorne Derby unable to get into the race with the poor start (TROUBLE_S) and TACTIC- held up while the race was controlled gate-to-wire by Act a Fool. He came back on July 23^rd with a full EX  _EXCUSE and projects to IMPROVE all around. #7 EVEN THE WIND comes out of the two common races with subtle trips though overall needing to show more with the string of B- OptixGRADE all season.

Those two will be joined by their stablemates: Block runner, #1 BORDER PATROL, a new face coming in from the NYRA circuit where he was placed in against statebred company and not showing enough (C OptixGRADE) without excuse in those two starts and must step up off those efforts to compete against the others in this field. #4 ICE SHARD for Perez recorded a B OptixGRADE in his lone turf start, though a softer 61 OptixFIG in a lower OFR race to suggest he must improve all around with today’s higher OFR. He also has a pattern of SLOG and that left him compromised in each race including the debut with a CLOSE and the July 26^th race showing another CLOSE against X_BIAS over a course tougher to make up ground on.

First time starter #5 NEWS AT NINE appears live on debut for Davis, a barn capable with debuting runners. They have been looking for a turf route race noting a scratch from August 9^th at HS Indy when those races came off the turf and appears to be race ready as they quickly find this spot to run in.

Eduardo Rodriguez also shows up with a pair giving the class and experience edge to #3 REGIMENTAL over #6 DAPPER DUDE wheeling right back from his debut just 6-days ago and stepping up in class in the process. REGIMENTAL has recorded speed figures that make him competitive, however has struggled to duplicate those efforts there this season. 

#6 RIVZONAROLL was a standout when he was entered on August 8^th in a $6250k N3L claiming race, though unable to make the race as a vet scratch, an issue that seems mild as he returns in this spot just days later. This is a tougher spot for him, though a spot he still fits in. He should benefit from the outside draw and with the other speed to his inside. The rail draw could be tougher for #1 SWISS GUARD a post he has struggled from in the past and has other speed to keep him honest including, #2 TIMEHASCOME to his inside.

#3 PINBALLER has also shown speed in his most recent starts, though does not appear as quick early as SWISS GUARD or TIMEHASCOME and that could assist him to try and fall into a tracking trip, a trip #5 SANTINO’S FANTASY will also look for to stalk and pounce. #4 LONESTAR CHROME does not hold any early speed or finishing ability (Quad IV Circle) and appears overmatched in this race. 

This is a competitive $13.5k OC event where many in this field have shown their ability to compete and win as individuals. The race shape and specifically “pace makes the race” should come into play here. Confirmed front runners #5 BLOOD MOON and #7 BOURBON DELIGHT project to use from the outside for position and must be used early to have a chance with other pacesetters to their inside. #1 TWO WORLDS projected to be forwardly placed on August 2^nd, though herded at the start he found himself off the pace moving up late behind pacesetting winner, Shackleford Strong. #2 MOMENT has legit early speed and has shown his ability to set fast (X_FLOW) fractions and still compete at the level this season.

With that contention, the race looks to set up for #6 DANVILLE, one that has benefit from favorable scenarios this season with PERFECT/TACTIC+ races picking up the two wins in June. #3 GLOBAL EMPIRE used his class to work a pocket trip and pick up the belated win this season on July 30^th. He does not project to be as close stalking today with the Sun/43 SpeedRate though could find himself in the right trip, at the right price and holding his form to pick up back-to-back wins.

#4 BEEALEA had buried form that allowed for him to get overlooked by the public and pick up the July 30^th win. Those “trips” again are impacting his Plot position and shape for today’s race. He has shown the consistent ability to compete at this level and one to keep in the mix once again. 

#6 CHOPPER should find a more favorable pace scenario (Snowflake/13 SpeedRate) to try and carry his speed gate to wire. He has some advantages looking at the Plot sitting with separation in Quad I higher on the y-axis above the ParLine. The “Red” PlotFit could see more “contention” early than what appears “on paper” and should be factored along with the Large Circle.

#2 HATCHET CREEK could be one of those runners to keep CHOPPER honest, or at the least sit in a stalking position and falling into a trip when that one starts to “Circle” coming back to the field late in the race. HATCHET CREEK brings upside in his own right with the SHORTER Projection coming right back from August 3^rd race at the higher claiming level. #1 SOUPER FORTUNE carries similar Projections with the DROP and SHORTER Keywords in his two most recent starts and project to move up under today’s conditions.

#4 CHICKS FOR FREE made a lot of sense at this level two weeks ago, though the pattern of SLOG played against him once again left with too much to do (CLOSE, SAVED, GALLOP+) late finishing as one of the top three together at the wire behind BOS winner, Mud Island. #5 IDEA MAN also part of that “blanket” finish comes right back in here as well and is another that has his pattern of gate issues, TROUBLE_S creating a hurdle in terms of trip from off the pace.

#3 PERFECT WAGER is a longshot to keep in the mix and could be some intent landing in this spot and making the trip back up to Hawthorne for Witthauer. PERFECT WAGER was claimed back on July 15^th and seemed to be “given” the August 5^th race as he cold on the board dismissed from the 7-2 ML and in terms of trip he was held up (TACTIC-) behind a slow (X_FLOW) pace and kept WIDE. His sprint races here from earlier this season fit right in line with today’s race par and those starter allowance races both assigned the same OFR as today’s event. His position on the Plot as a Quad III Square is given an edge over#7 PUBLIC SAFETY, Quad II Circle. PUBLIC SAFETY has recorded numbers that fit on his best day, though considered today’s race shape could have a hurdle and should be factored with the odds.

While the three runners with experience could have that advantage in this race, they have not shown enough in their races to support with confidence and open up for the new faces. One of those with experience, #1 RUMBRANDT will be joined by her stablemate #7 RIETTA making her debut and coming into this race with a progressive published worktab with two recent strong works to suggest she has some run.

Chris Block will also be represented by a pair of first time starters for Lothenbach both #6 BLAMELESS GLORY and #9 MODERN SOUND appear well prepared for this race and in capable hands though worth getting a look at the pair in the paddock on the board to assess further intent in here.

The works on paper are not obviously strong for #3 YODA GLITZ, though the gate work on July 19^th is a strong move for this barn and with plenty of foundation and getting into this race very light with the 10-lb allowance could suggest intent first out with Weatherly aboard. Eoin Harty does not have the strongest numbers with debuting runners, though has sent out live this season with a limited sample and that trend could continue with #2 KENWICK. 

The race shape is a tricky one with the “Fire” Contention paired with the lower SpeedRate and the field positioned below the ParLine. #7 APOLLO U ANYWHERE projects to take up her usual role on the lead though should be stalked by #8 ARCH FLYER and #9 MY LADY SLEW draw to her outside and prefer those outside two given the trip.

Looking at the Plot, the Large Square of #5 LITTLE BELLA is tough to ignore. The Plot is picking up data from her races before the extended layoff she returned from on June 11^th. She was given a look in that June race coming off the layoff as the type of runner that seemed “race ready” coming off that type of layoff. Current form becomes more of a concern as she again has another layoff line making this second start of the season off a two month break. Hernandez has been aboard #4 RANK AND FILE for each in-the-money finish this season and seems intent with the rider change made for this race. Looking at Standard, she has a similar shape and position to LITTLE BELLA with more reliable form from her races this season. She will require a top effort and trip with the shorter 5.5f distance, though not out of it and should offer value.

The lower SpeedRate should make things tougher on the “Circles” #1 AH LEAH, #2 TAP N TWINE, #3 HOPPESTRY and #6 AUNT STELLA runners positioned towards the lower end of the Plot.

Even with the “Sun” Contention and higher 74 SpeedRate, speed has been holding on this turf course. That profile can upgrade #1 SAILING SOLO and #3 POWER THROUGH the two Surface/Distance Squares. Part of that early pace is due to stretch out sprinter, #6 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE; main track runners, #7 FAST FALL and #9 COYOTE ROAD; and of course #4 BIZZEE CHANNEL making his belated return today for Rivelli.

Trip/Pace looks to finally set up for #2 PROTONIC POWER, one that has run quality races all season and still looking for his first 2023 win. Rival #5 SILVER QUARTERS also is looking for a belated win (July 2021) as well as some pace to run at for his RunStyle. He will make the transition here back to the turf, a surface he has handled and entered to run on this season. #8 CAPTIVATING MOON is another that has not had his picture taken since February 2021. His current form has had some concerns as a graded stakes horses that has started to show GATE issues, reluctant to load in each race this year. 

Turf could be the deciding factor for many in here as a race remaining on the turf benefits a few over others. 4-ICE SHARD is one of those. His turf route two races back was easily the best race of his career. He may look to get into the race a bit earlier today and then come running in the lane. 7-EVEN THE WIND is going to take a good amount of action as his last three on the grass have all been solid. He's another that may look to get into the race a bit sooner as he picks up a strong finisher in the saddle in Emigh. 3-REGIMENTAL gets the bug Rodriguez in the saddle, who has ridden this turf well. He has taken action in his last three as he runs for a barn that has had a solid last couple of weeks.

There's a lot of early speed in this race, but the speed of 2-TIMEHASCOME is a different kind of speed compared to that of the others in this field. He showed the ability to battle through the wire when headed in starts three and four back and prevailing for wins. The last couple have come against tougher company but with the class drop into here, he may be sitting on a big race. 1-SWISS GUARD may benefit from the veteran Emigh in the saddle. He has speed but has to know that there are others who may be quicker early. If he can settle early, he should be able to pick off runners that are coming back to the field in the lane. 5-SANTINO'S FANTASY may not be up to par with some others in here in regards to speed figures but he may have the running style that suits this bunch. He has had a good meet and figures to rate 3-4 lengths back early and look to move into the lane.

While the record on paper may not show it, 1-TWO WORLDS could be a better route horse than sprinter. His first start of the meet at a mile 70 was an excellent effort and his race at this distance last fall was sneaky good.  The barn is solid, the race pace may be right and a perfect stalking trip could become a winning trip. 2-MOMENT figures to show speed as he wheels back 10 days off a good effort when in for the optional $40k. He loves this track, having never missed the board in ten Hawthorne starts, he is good at the distance and has had another fine season. Let's see how much action he takes at the windows in this spot. 6-DANVILLE comes back with a good amount of time between starts. He will be hoping for a contested pace upfront as he figures to rate in the second flight and move forwardly in the lane. If you get close to the morning line on him, he may be worth a play.

There's going to be some pace in this race with the presence of Chopper but this is interesting due to the movement of numerous horses at different levels. I like that 1-SOUPER FORTUNE is turning back to the sprint after a couple of routes while facing tougher. The fact that Colon chose this runner over another solid horse in Idea Man only flatters his chances. I expect her rates in the second flight early and comes running in the lane. 3-PERFECT WAGER is interesting in here as well. He has had past Hawthorne success at higher class levels and comes out of a race at Fanduel against much tougher. I expect he improves in here. 4-CHICKS FOR FREE ran at this level last out and ran a solid race. He closed with a rush and just ran out of real estate. The added 16th should help as he's another that figures to benefit from the pace in this race.

This looks to be a really solid field of juvenile turfers as hopefully we can remain on the grass. 7-RIETTA runs for the hot Boyce barn as she has a good pattern of drills and is bred nicely to handle the grass. She's an Illinois-bred facing open company so the intent to race for the bonus purse money is clearly here as well. 3-YODA GLITZ is also bred for the turf as she may be a bit overlooked with some of the others in this field. Her gate drill on July 19 shows that she may have some early speed as she picks up the 10 lbs. bug in the saddle. 2-KENWICK ships in from Kentucky for this spot, a move that trainer Eoin Harty has had success with throughout this meet. She has trained solely on the poly at Turfway so the move to turf for the debut looks to be very logical.

A really solid field closes out the card on the turf as there appears to be a good amount of pace in this race. 2-PROTONIC POWER may get the right pace setup ahead of him as he comes off a sneaky good race on the dirt in his last. He is still looking for his first win of the year but his last victory came over this course and Emigh looks to be a solid fit in the saddle. 1-SAILING SOLO has speed and also has a lot of heart. He's been right there in all three starts since coming back off the long layoff and looks to be turf only. This is his best distance and the inside draw may allow for him to get the jump on some others in this field. 3-POWER THROUGH also has speed but did show the ability to rate last time out. That was a good win in his first start back off a lengthy layoff as he also runs at his best career distance. As long as he avoids getting into an early pace battle with Sailing Solo, he could be a factor the entire way.

7-EVEN THE WIND seems most likely. He finished in the money in all three Hawthorne starts, finally getting as high as second in last. He doesn’t sport a big closing move but he might be able to wear down these rivals. 4-ICE SHARD has to figure. He has only managed to run on turf once, his other two scheduled turf races were moved to the main track, but he finished second in that one race and finished ahead of Even the Wind in that spot. 6-DAPPER DUDE moves up off the claim. However, he arguably ran better than any in here and finished second by a rapidly-diminishing head. He’s back in only six days, which could be a cause for concern, but he has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Interesting race featuring many droppers. But, we are nearing the end of the meet and the “For Sale” sign will be out on many runners for the next three weeks. Really don’t know if 5-SANTINO’S FANTASY is fast enough but from a pure pace standpoint, he looks like the only runner in here that doesn’t want the early lead. If the plethora of front runners tire themselves fighting for the lead, he could set sail late. 2-TIMEHASCOME is the most logical front runner. He wired the field the last time he ran at this level and has raced competitively against better since then. 6-RIVZONAROLL drops to his lowest level ever. He’s one of many in here with speed. He’s been tiring late but might hang on better at this level.

2-MOMENT could get back on the winning track. Speedy runner has been meeting superior speed in his last few but figures to put away the other speed runners in this spot and still be able to finish with something left. 6-DANVILLE is another top contender. He’s another in great form. Hasn’t finished out of the money all year, with wins in three of his eight starts. But he has yet to beat top choice. 3-GLOBAL EMPIRE could get the trip. He’s been in good form for months. Winner of last against allowance company will be tracking the pace once again. Could surge past them all late. 

4-CHICKS FOR FREE gets a slight nod. He ran well in last to finish third and might have been moving fastest of all late in that race that was a sixteenth shorter. There’s a good chance he would have won at today’s distance. But, there’s another member of this field that also finished fast and he was a length and a half ahead of this runner at the finish. 5-IDEA MAN was the runner that finished second to Chicks For Free’s third. He also came running late and he lost that shorter race by only a half length. However, his regular rider in that spot apparently chose a different runner for this race. 1-SOUPER FORTUNE drops and turns back in distance. He won the last time he ran at this distance and the last two times he raced against runners somewhat similar to these. Colon chose to ride him instead of Idea Man. It could be an interesting finish. 

Don’t know if 5-MOM’S CHANNEL is a standout in here but she ran well under pressure in her career debut and held for third. That race was on dirt but she has an outstanding turf pedigree. Not sure this race will stay on the lawn after all the rain the last few days but we already know she can run well on dirt. Guessing she’ll be tough either way. 1-RUMBRANDT wasn’t going to beat that $500k runner in her career debut but she ran well enough to finish third. Think she’s another that might be better on the lawn. In any case, experience helps and she doesn’t seem likely to run into any whirlwinds in this race. Figures at a price. 6-BLAMELESS GHOST is making her debut. Well-bred runner should take to any surface and she races for a barn that knows how to get their babies ready to run well at first asking. 2-KENWICK is another with a brilliant pedigree and good drills. She’s shipping in for this race. However, her barn’s runners don’t often win with first timers. Of course, she can always be the exception.

8-ARCH FLYER has been in pretty good form. She had a win and three seconds from her last five starts. She owns good speed but think her ability to lay off the pace a bit makes her tougher in this spot. 7-APOLLO U ANYWHERE could be the best of the speed. She folded late in last after fighting for the lead but maybe she can escape on the lead today. 5-LITTLE BELLA finished third of four in last but she was making her first start in well over two years. On her best day, she would probably be the quickest of these but she’s taking blinks off for this race and might try to track the pace. Can surprise late.

2-PROTONIC POWER is a slim pick. But the pace of this race should set up perfectly for him and he runs well on turf or the main track. However, he’s making his eighth start of the year without a win so he’s obviously vulnerable. 1-SAILING SOLO would have been a stone cold lock in a race like this in 2020 and maybe even in 2021. However, he had only one race last year and he’s only making his third start of this year. He loves the front end but not sure he’ll be able to put away all the other speed in this race. 8-CAPTIVATING MOON is another likely to finish fast with all the speed ahead of him in this spot. He finished behind top choice in last but ahead of that rival in their prior two meetings.

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