Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race starts with #2 SPICY ITALIAN as she projects to be a heavy favorite in this race coming back for Catalano and place finish on July 16^th. That effort was a much improved race from her prior two starts in Kentucky and projects to use a similar tactic here with Felix taking over. She is likely to have pace pressure with the two runners on either side #1 BORDER STAR stretching out for Manley as well as #3 PACIFIC VIEW, where Giles lands for this race.

#6 VOSTRA has started to find her top form again as of late and could benefit from the pace contention with her late run. The races where she has had pace to run into have been her most competitive from the debut to the recent start over the turf. 

Rednour will send out a pair in this race with the more established #2 J J’S SOLUTION projected to be the shorter of the two. He has the more consistent form, higher speed figures and even competitive races in limited turf sprints, however he is still looking for that first win and overall race record is tougher to support with confidence. As far as #7 JAKES CHANNEL he carries more upside overall and even a case for positive intent. This will be his first career start in against statebred company and second on the turf while first at a sprint. He was scratched from a turf sprint back on July 26^th when the races came off the turf to suggest the connections have been patiently waiting for this type of race.

#4 EL MUCHO was upgraded coming back off the layoff on August 6^th as one that carried juvenile form and making his first start in against statebred company – a similar angle to the Catalano open length winner, Sawyer Fox. It was encouraging to see the effort and progression in that race and should be able to hold his form here wheeling back and even with the surface switch.

#1 SMOOTH ATTACK projects to be forwardly placed especially with the rail draw. The shift to the turf is less of a concern as class as he has been unable to carry his speed as effectively in the Special Weight conditions. 

#3 MERLOTTI was upgraded on July 6^th returning to Hawthorne from his efforts here earlier this season. The TACTIC- from the rail and TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip impacted his ability to compete on the day for a top spot noting the CLOSE and solid GALLOP+ after the wire. He returned to validate that form on July 27^th with the WIDE trip place finish and projects to contend once again, just need the right trip.

Perez will return with a pair in this race, and both given a look today. #4 ICE AXE has the benefit of route experience and coming back from a series of competitive races where he was against the dynamic closing into Slow/Very Slow (S/VS) early paces. #6 BLACK RAVEN is unproven at the route/two-turn distance though there was intent for the stretch out noting a vet scratch from July 6^th. Ability wise his first two starts both solid efforts recorded some of the higher OptixFIG in this field and makes himself competitive pairing those races today.

#5 ARCHIE THE GIZA is the new face in this field and his two Churchill numbers back in May standout as the highest figures in this field. The surface switch is new though there has been intent to run on the main track keying off a trainer scratch at Ellis Park (8f dirt) on June 25^th and entered on August 11^th as MTO unable to race as the races stayed on the turf. 

Both #1 CHERRY ORCHARD and #4 JACKPOT BOY are proven at this lower MCL level and where they have recorded their most competitive races to date. The challenge there is that they have still come up short on the win end or with a winning “B” effort to open the door for some other “new” faces to jump up this afternoon.

#3 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS should be the more obvious alternative for Block. The class DROP looks required for this individual and the reason for the change in surface to just find the right level for him to compete. His numbers for those two turf races stack right up with CHERRY ORCHARD and JACKPOT BOY which could suggest he might come up short on the win end to require some value – value that might not be there.

Quinonez will send out a pair and with #2 ONE ACE returning to the sprint distance here at Hawthorne where he recorded his two more competitive races earlier this season with numbers in those events in line with the other three previously mentioned and should be longer of the two today. Stablemate #5 XPRESSIR could improve in just a second start and likely to show early speed, something those others lack sprinting to potentially have a pace advantage.

#6 HOT CUPPA COFFEE is the new face here he will find the circuit switch and significant class drop today for Roussel. Those changes are a tough read as it comes with the layoff and the connections seemingly “giving up” on this horse after just one race. 

Speed has been strong on the turf course as of late and that profile would only upgrade #5 BUCK MOON further with his natural early speed. He projects to be on the lead early and will take the fight to any that want to run with him on the lead. That makes him a threat in this race on the lead and a factor for the other horses and riders to try and work a trip around. As far as the turf, this will be the first start on the turf for BUCK MOON though he has handled different main tracks, as well as the synthetic both at Turfway and Woodbine, holding his form and numbers to suggest he can do the same here on the grass.

#7 ANOTHER MYSTERY is the most proven on the turf and has been waiting in the wings for this grass race since the Black Tie Affair stakes was moved to the main track. He has run well off a layoff and in terms of pace should benefit from the 58 SpeedRate any level of Contention. #4 SONNY SMACK has a strong late close both shown on the Plot as a Large Quad IV Square and visually in this race such as the June stakes at Canterbury Park making a middle MOVE and CLOSE to finish in a BLANKET at the wire.

Class is the biggest test for #6 GREY STREAK as he will step back up to stakes company. Going back through his races and the 2021 season (sophomore) when he participated in three stakes races; he finished on the board with a place finish in the Hawthorne and off the turf in the Tropical Park Derby (GP) and Dueling Grounds Derby (KD) though number wise was consistently recording OptixFIG in those races that stack up with his current form and in today’s OFR. 

#7 SALLY’S SURPRISE caught the eye with the effort on June 29^th when stepped up in class giving an honest account of herself on the day. Class wise she looked to need just slightly softer and those “DROP” visuals continued when she returned in allowance company on July 13^th. She should move up coming back in this spot for Rodriguez with intent as this is where Felix lands. Her stablemate #4 VISIONISTA will make just her second start against winners though drops in for a tag which should assist her today though preference lands with SALLY’S SURPRISE of the pair.

#3 CRYSTAL SNOW returning to the one turn distance where she nearly carried her speed around two turns on the turf just two weeks ago. She will be required to hold her form coming back on short rest, though her early speed can be effective and can be effective in this group with a top effort.

#1 HEAVENLY SCENT is a touch light on speed figures for this race, though in terms of form and class is moving forward with each start into this third off the layoff while remaining in claiming company. 

Class wise #1 MY LIPS ARE SEALED stacks up at this level as she has held her form and has been competitive under similar conditions all season. The challenge to get the win is still the prime hurdle and trip comes into play as she draws the rail and shortens up to the 5f distance for this race.

#6 GOLDEN BELL was scheduled to race here in the Jean Elizabeth stakes on July 26^th and as a trainer scratch did not participate that day. She has run on the turf and for the shorter sprint distance which could be the reason they decided to wait for this event rather than try 6.5f last month. Santiago was named for Cox that day and retains the call here.

#4 LIPLINER turned in a BTL place effort on June 18^th though that N2X allowance race had a much lower OFR than the allowance that followed on July 27^th and looked “outclassed” that day and comes back in this spot with a higher OFR than the turf sprint last month. The same class concerns are in play for her stablemate #7 CHROME ATTACK as well as #8 RACEDAY ATTIRE though the two as Quad IV Square could come running late for minors. #3 MISS MELODY is softer on numbers and class, though her early speed could keep her in the mix especially with the transition to the TURF, a surface she should handle as she makes her grass debut here. 

#4 OFF RAMP was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) at this level back on June 6^th making her a player right back at a proven level. She turned in an honest effort recording an 85 OptixGRADE/C+ OptixGRADE with the WIDE trip last month in the Jean Elizabeth stakes, a higher level $75k purse and much higher 94-86 OFR compared to today’s 88-80. Her stablemate #7 SOMEONE SAID SO has some buried form, class and speed figures that make her competitive on her best day. Rosin has struggled getting her to the races since the November race last year. She has been entered three times at this OC $40k condition and each time a vet scratch including a late scratch nearing post time here on June 18^th. Given those hurdles coming along, the likeliness of this being a “prep” is lessened and projects especially with the meet winding down to be race ready should she run.

The ability to hold form would be a greater concern with the barn change if there was also an ownership change on #6 ALBERTA SUN. Looking at OptixPLOT she is quickest to the first and second call though as a Circle lacks finishing ability and will require that early pace advantage to compete.

Looking at the Plot #5 WHITE LIES and #8 SAY CHEESE have the edge over #3 BERAVINA based on the shape and position though have a greater challenge in this event from class and speed as main win contenders. Trip will also be key for #1 RONAN (Quad IV Square) from off the pace though projects to make her run and has been competitive under similar conditions keying off the June 7^th B- OptixGRADE. 

An interesting spot here as 2-SPICY ITALIAN was intended for grass last out but almost pulled off the upset when staying in on the main track that day. Today the connections enter her for dirt as she finds a field where she should be forwardly placed and figures to contend the entire way. The question in the end will come down to price, as she looks to offer little value in here. 3-PACIFIC VIEW has tactical speed and has been knocking on the door, posting four runner-up efforts on the meet. She figures to settle mid-pack early but looks to move forwardly in the lane. 1-BORDER STAR could be the one to change the pace complexion from the inside. She stretches out after a pair of sprints to open her career and is bred to run all day. If she is able to make the top in here, she could have the potential to steal this race at a price.

Worth taking a shot to defeat the favorite in here as 3-GOD GUNS N GUTS makes his fourth career start. He got off to a later start as he didn't debut until his 4yo season but he ran a nice race against open-company in his second start out. A stumble at the start was costly last out but with the move to the turf, I expect he shows some speed in a race that doesn't have much pace. 4-EL MUCHO seemed to have matured a bit in his eight months away from the track as he posted a much improved effort in his first start of the season. He's another that figures to rate close as Centeno is back aboard once again. 2-J J'S SOLUTION has the speed figures in many races that would be enough to win in here. The problem is he's made 24 starts and still has yet to post a victory. When sprinting, he tends to settle back a bit early but should close with a rush in the stretch.

Curious to see what 6-BLACK RAVEN shows us in this spot. He has run decent races in his first three career starts and is bred to run all day. With the stretch in distance, combined with a race with little early pace, look for him to possibly show speed and have a chance to never look back on the lead. 3-MERLOTTI has run solid races in all of his starts and his first career victory doesn't look to be too far away. 4-ICE AXE is another Perez runner that merits a look. He has run solid races in his four starts on the meet but just tends to close a bit too late. I expect her gets into the mix in here, but it may be for one of the positions underneath.

Really tough to figure what to do here as there's a pair of big class droppers that may be looking for a win and a claim. The biggest drop comes from 6-HOT CUPPA COFFEE as he showed little in his turf debut at Indy and now plunges to the bottom. The breeding is good, connections are solid and works are ok. Expect a much better performance in here. 3-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS also drops after a pair of turf tries to open his career. He split fields when in for the tag but just sort of raced evenly in both starts. He switches, surfaces, distances and drops as he is in the same boat as the top choice in here. 1-CHERRY ORCHARD has raced competitively at this level and figures to be a factor throughout. With the droppers in here, he may be overlooked at the windows but the consistency of his factors definitely put him in the mix.

A really solid field for the Thursday feature as numerous horses are in with a chance. The one with the most turf success is the favorite, 7-ANOTHER MYSTERY as he has a vast amount of graded stake success and figures to be very tough in this spot. He has been away since May but has raced with spacing between starts throughout his career. Expect him to close with a rush late. 4-SONNY SMACK is one that will close from even further back than Another Mystery as he tends to loaf along early and come charging in the lane. He comes off a near miss at Canterbury in his last and will just need some pace to chase in here. 5-BUCK MOON is fast and he is game. The only question for him to answer is how he will handle the turf. He battled in his last, only to be worn down by Notary (who draws the rail in here) late in the lane. If he can catch any sort of a breather in this spot, expect him to hang around to the wire.

The class relief should be welcome for 7-SALLY'S SUPRISE in this spot as she has faced tougher in her last couple. She did chase, and ran on for third at this level three back and comes in off a little breather since her last start. With some pace in this race, look for her to stalk early and run on in the lane. 4-VISIONISTA got the maiden breaker in a race that came off the turf two back. She chased the lone speed in that spot and was able to wear that one down late. With her tactical speed, she shouldn't be too far back in here but also doesn't need the lead to win. 3-CRYSTAL SNOW has speed and nearly stole one on the turf while stretching out in her last. She battled to the wire when at a similar level three back and will just need to avoid getting into an early pace battle with Heavenly Scent in here.

The key in here for me is that 6-GOLDEN BELL is not in for the tag as intent is everything. Brad Cox sends this one up from Indy for this race as she has speed but also has spaced out starts. The work pattern though is very consistent and picking up a good speed rider in Santiago will be beneficial as well. 1-MY LIPS ARE SEALED is more of the turf specialist but she has never gone this short in her career. She did rally late at 5 1/2 furlongs in her last but with the inside draw she will have to get a clean break and look to work her way through traffic in the lane. 7-CHROME ATTACK ran a big race while at this level last out. She was stepping up off an allowance victory into that spot and was overlooked a bit at the windows. She settled early but did show some late run to get into the mix.

Trainer Coty Rosin has two in here and I'm hopeful he runs both as they have the potential to run 1-2 in this spot. 4-OFF RAMP was dominant at this level two starts back, winning by nearly nine lengths in the most impressive performance of her career. She held his own against stakes company in her last, closing later while racing wide. Look for her to get into the race earlier today and take over in the lane. I'm intrigued by 7-SOMEONE SAID SO as I truly hope she wasn't just entered to help make this race fill. She has ability but also comes off the lengthy layoff into here. What pops are the works, as she has posted recent bullet drills and is working consistently toward the return. Let's see if she runs, and if she does, she can compete at a price. 5-WHITE LIES was entered to go long last week but a vet scratch knocked her out of that spot. She's back in a sprint in here as she returns off the layoff.  Expect her to sit back early and make one run in the lane.

2-SPICY ITALIAN showed little in her first two career starts in Kentucky but shipped here for last and stretched out. She led virtually every step of the way except for her last when she was passed and had to settle for second place, only a nose back. Two Churchill works since should have her back on her toes. Might not look back. 3-PACIFIC VIEW also comes off a narrow loss, though her last race was on grass. That was her fourth second-place finish in her last five starts. The other place finishes were on dirt. She could be tough. 5-LIL CARRIE D showed little on turf in last but did finish third in her previous two main-track route races. The switch back to dirt should help. Could get close.

Tough race to figure out. Few have run competitive races. Most are racing on the lawn for the first time. Could have picked a few different runners but going to go with 4-EL MUCHO. He might be the best of the speed but it’s his turf pedigree that impresses.  He raced in second throughout in last, his first start of the year. This will be his initial turf attempt but his sire was a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner. Might be able to follow in his father’s footsteps.   Don’t like that a barn that has been successful with turf sprinters waited until 1- SMOOTH ATTACK’s 13^th start to even enter him on turf, and that race was moved to the main track, but this gelding does have decent speed and turf pedigree and he is moving back to Illinois breds. 3-GOD GUTS N GUNS had little chance after a bad stumble at the start left him far behind the early leaders. He made up some ground but it was too little too late. However, he did finish second, versus open company, in his previous start. He’s another making his turf debut but he could be the quickest member of this field and speed is always a factor in turf sprints.

6-BLACK RAVEN stretches out. He’s been competitive in all his races but they were too short. He’s bred to run long. Guessing we’ll see considerable improvement around two turns. 5-ARCHIE THE GIZA is in from Kentucky to make his dirt debut. His previous three starts were contested on turf. He’s also racing without blinkers after a one-race test with them. They obviously weren’t liked. The speed figures from his first two races were much higher than those generated by any of his rivals but those numbers came on the lawn. We’ll see how he fares on the main track. 3-MERLOTTI and 4-ICE AXE have both run competitively at times. Either, or both, can figure in the outcome.

1-CHERRY ORCHARD finished in the money in his last four main-track starts; two sprints and two routes. He runs pretty much the same race every time. Has some new shooters to compete against here, and some droppers, but this might be the day he breaks through. 3-HANDSOFFHTEGOODS finished sixth in both races but both were against better and both were on turf. Might do better on dirt, especially with the class drop. 6-HOT CUPPA COFFEE ships in and drops sharply. He finished last in a maiden special on the turf in Indiana in his only start but he’s had some decent dirt drills since and the sharp drop could have him right where he needs to be.

7-ANOTHER MYSTERY seems to hold the class advantage. This multiple stakes winner seeks his first win of the year and needs to bounce back from a dull effort last out but he should find the pace of this race, along with easier company, to his liking. 5-BUCK MOON found a tough spot to make his turf debut but he seems to have the best speed and his pedigree suggests that he could be good on weeds. Plus, if it rains too much in the morning (blame the weatherman, not me), this race could come off the turf. 4-SONNY SMACK is hard to gauge. He won six of his 19 turf starts and often competes in stakes but hard measure the fields he’s been meeting against these. Plus, he’s shown little on turf courses listed as anything other than firm and this course might be “yielding” by post time.

4-VISIONISTA took nine starts to break his maiden and showed little in his first start against winners but he was making his turf debut in that spot. He’s back on the main track and cutting back in distance for this. Should be racing right behind the early leaders. Might edge by late. 3-CRYSTAL SNOW moves up in claiming price but turns back in distance and heads back to the main track. He seems to be quicker than the rest. Might lead throughout. 2-SEQUAYA hasn’t been able to beat easier but he a perpetual bridesmaid. He finished second in his last four races and in 13 of his 39 career starts. Might grab a share.

6-GOLDEN BELL is an interesting runner. This lightly-raced filly has had only one turf race, back when she was two. It took place at Royal Ascot, in England, and she finished 16^th of 27. She had one more race that year, at Saratoga, and finished fourth on dirt. Then, she ran twice at Monmouth in 2022, winning both starts. Then, another nine-month layoff and she showed up at Churchill this past May. Showed little there, on dirt, but now she’s here and will try her hand (hoof) at turf racing once again. She does race for one of the country’s top barns. Maybe. 2-GET NONE jumps in class but she has been a turf sprint wonder, winning eight of her 11 starts at the distance. Wouldn’t sell her short. 1-MY LIPS ARE SEALED might prefer routes but she just finished second in a turf sprint. She’s going to be attacking late. Could get there.

4-OFF RAMP won her first two races of the meet but ran into Oeuvre in last in the Jean Elizabeth. She still finished a good third. Versatile runner will meet a somewhat easier group in this spot. Could start another win streak today. 5-WHITE LIES seeks her first win of the year and takes on open company for the first time in a while but she has been in pretty good form for a while. Turns back to a sprint, which could be her preference. Might break through. 7-SOMEONE SAID SO makes her first start of the year but she has been popping some impressive workouts in preparation for her return. Figures to be tracking the pace with the abundance of speed ahead of her. Stablemate of top choice could give them a run for the money.

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